sustainable intensification of agricultural development: the scientific support for a new paradigm
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Sustainable Intensification of Agricultural Development: The scientific support for a new paradigm A presentation by Prof. Johan Rockström from Stockholm Resilience Centre Water Land Ecosystem High level dialogue New Delhi 3rd May 2013TRANSCRIPT
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Water Land EcosystemHigh level dialogueNew Delhi
3rd May 2013
Prof. Johan RockströmStockholm Resilience Centre
Sustainable Intensification of Agricultural Development:
The scientific support for a new paradigm
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2 Photos: Mattias Klum
3 - 6 - 9A Biosphere Shaped by Humanity
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Growing Human Pressure[20/80 dilemma]
Climate change[560/450/400 dilemma]
Surprise[99/1 dilemma]
Ecosystem decline[60 % loss dilemma]
Global Freshwater Resources
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23-04-12 Johan Rockström and Carl Folke, Stockholm Resilience Centre
Humanity has reached a planetary saturation
point
The Human ability to do has vastly outstripped our
ability to understand
A resilient biosphere the basis for humen
development
Fierce urgency of now
A great transformation to global sustainability
necessary, possible, and desirable
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Goal 1: Ending Extreme Poverty
Goal 2: Achieving Development within Planetary Boundaries
Goal 3: Achieve Gender Equality, Human Rights and the Rule of Law
Goal 4: Achieving Food Security and Rural Prosperity
Goal 5: Empowering Inclusive, Productive and Resilient Cities
Goal 6: Achieving Health and Wellbeing at all Ages
Goal 7: Ensure Effective Learning for Every Child for Life and Livelihood
Goal 8: Curbing Human-Induced Climate Change
Goal 9: Securing Ecosystem Services and Biodiversity
Goal 10: Transforming Governance for Sustainable Development
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…
Rockström et al. 2009 Nature, 461 (24): 472-475
Global fresh-water use
Transgressing safe boundaries
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Global water resources in the Anthropocene
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IPCC AR4 Scenario, Mean deviation (%) 2080-2099, ensemble models
Social futures 20507000 > 9000 km3/yr
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Hansen et al 2012
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Extreme weather events more common, with larger social and economic impacts, coupled to human induced climate change
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Kummu, Ward, de Moel, Varis 2010 Environmental Research Letters
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Food production to increase by ~70 % by 2050 to eradicate hunger on a planet with ~9 billion people (IIASTD 2009)
0
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
1960
1970
1980
1990
2002
2015
2030
2050
year
km3
0
100
200
300
1960
1970
1980
1990
2002
2015
2030
2050
Increase to reach the Hunger Goal 2015
2002 base line
The MDG Water Challenge
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In the search of a new paradigm
For Sustainable IntensificationOf Agriculture for Human
Prosperity
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Mats Lannerstad et al., in Prep
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Green-Blue resources for sustainable development
100%100%
60%60%
40%40%GLOBAL
INDIA
KENYA
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Dependence on green and blue water 2000
114
654
1080
239
787
1505
1692
907
219
Comprehensive Assessment 2007
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Critical transitions or regime shiftsRegime shifts are substantial, persistent,
reorganizations in ecosystem structure and processes
Diverse Coral dominated
Algae Dominated Reef
Parkland Savanna Bush steppe
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Agricultural Modification of ‘Green’ (ET) water flows
Irrigation + 1800-2500 km3/yr
Deforestation - 3000 km3/yr
Gordon et al. 2005, 2008
Total ET roughly 67000 km3/yr
Monsoon collapse
Savannisation
Dry savanna – wet savanna
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Moisture feedback critical for rainfall
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Operationalising a Paradigm Shift
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Elements of a Paradigm Shift
• Integrated reform of irrigated and rainfed agriculture (participation; watershed management; blue-green integration)
• Nexus approach to land-water-ecosystems; agriculture-energy-water
• Landscape and water restoration• Rural water and sanitation – resource reuse• Water and wastewater use • Integated land, water ecoystem management• Institution reform (national water framework)
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IrrigatedRainfed
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A triply Green Revolution– 2-3 X production– Social-Ecological Resilience– Green water management
Meeting the Global food challenge
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Strategies to upgrade rainfed agriculture
• Increase Crop water uptake capaciy
• Increase Crop water Availability
Upgrading Rainfed agriculture
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Smallholder Agriculture + Water =
Solutions to Rural Poverty & Hunger
www.awm-solutions.iwmi.orgwww.awm-solutions.iwmi.org
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Resource Reuse and Recovery: Productive Sanitation
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Integrated Land and water resource managementPayments for Ecosystem Services
< 25%25 - 50%50 - 75%75 - 100%
Green Water CreditsTana Basin, Kenya
0 50 10025 Km
±Decrease in Erosion (%)
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Improved land management practices in Agriculture has the potentialt to sequester 0.4 – 1.2 Gt C/år
(Rathan Lal, Science 2004)
Transforming Agriculture from Source to SinkCoupling land management, fertilisation and water resource management (e.g., CA, ES, WH)
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A new framework for Sustainable Development
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Photo Mattias Klum
Feeding the world in the Anthropocene within a safe operating space of Planetary Boundaries requires a major global transformation of Agriculture
Sustainable Intensification for food security and rural prosperity the only possible strategy
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TitleOur vision:
A world in which agriculture thrives within vibrant ecosystems, where communities have higher incomes, improved food security and the ability to continuously improve their lives