sustainable intensification is the answer to global food insecurity (sir gordon conway)

Ag4impact.orgTel. +44 (0) 207 594 9337Twitter:@Ag4Impact Facebook: One Billion Hungry

Sir Gordon ConwayProfessor of International Development

Centre for Environmental PolicyImperial College

Sustainable Intensification is the Answer to Global Food Insecurity

IFPRI and USAID AlumniWashington DC

September 20, 2016

Financial

Food security

Water

Civil Strife

Climate Change

Energy Supply

EcosystemFunctions

‘A Perfect Storm’

The Global Crises

Imperial College, London

Migration Moral Compass

Today


Threats and Opportunities


240 million in Sub Saharan Africa, 30% of Popn

360 million in India, 30% of Popn

Global Hunger



0

10

20

30

40

50

World East Africa Central Africa West Africa

1990-92

2014-16

Prevalence of undernourishment (%)Source: Fan based on FAO data

18.6

10.9

47.2

31.533.5

41.3

24.2

9.6

Hunger persists in Africa despite progress


Child malnutrition

Globally 1 in 3 under age 5In Africa it is over 40%Children are under height for their age

and suffer from stunted development and possible blindness and death Imperial College,

London

A Single Mother Farming a Hillside in Western Kenya

Mrs Namarunda

Imperial College, LondonImperial College, London

Survival line

Months

1

2

3

2 31 4

WeedsPests

Drought

An Insecure Farm



Targeted fertilisers


Southern Ethiopia


Survival line

Months

1

2

3

2 31 4

WeedsPests & diseases

DroughtSoilFertility

>2 t/haResilient Crops

A Secure Farm



The Answer


Sustainable Intensification


Africa has to Intensify



Intensification

We need

More food and other agricultural productsMore nutritious foodsHigher farm incomesGreater diversity of production

On the same amount of land or lessWith the same amount or less of water

Producing More with Less Imperial College, London

Land and Water is in short supply and degrading


But it has to be sustainable

• With efficient and prudent use of inputs• Pesticides, herbicides, fertilisers

• Minimising emissions of Greenhouse Gases• Methane, nitrous oxide, CO2

• While increasing natural capital and environmental services• Soil moisture, natural enemies of pests

• Strengthening Resilience

• Reducing environmental impact



Global Warming

Met Office Hadley Centre, UK and Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, UKImperial College, London

RCP2.6 - very low GHG emissions leading to about 20C above preindustrialRCP8.5 - increasing GHG emissions on current trajectory leading to 3-40C above pre-industrialIPPCC WGIIAR5 Technical Summary

Future Climate Temperatures

Imperial College, LondonImperial College, London

MORE THAN 5% REDUCTION IN LENGTH OF GROWING PERIOD

Average Annual Max Temp > 300C

Ericksen et al Mapping hotspots of climate change and food insecurity in the global tropics


Climate already changingAfrica


Precision Farming

Imperial College, LondonRichard Godwin Ingenia,September 2015

Real Time Kinetic System- accuracy to 2-3cm © Claas


Precision Farming

Imperial College, LondonRichard Godwin Ingenia,September 2015

In-row Robocrop weeding©Cranfield University

Harper Adams University Imperial College,

London

Microdosing in Niger



Multiple approaches

Ecology

Genetics

Socio-economics

plus IntegratedImperial College, London

Use ecological principles to design agricultural practices

e.g.AgroforestryIntegrated Pest

ManagementOrganic farming

Sustainable Ecological Intensification



Africa’s soilsdegrading rapidly

For SSA land degradation hotspots affect 26% of the land area

The economic loss is about $68 billion a year affecting 180 million people


Le, Q.B., Nkonya, E. and A. Mirzabaev. 2014. Biomass Productivity-Based Mapping of Global Land Degradation Hotspots. (ZEF Discussion Papers 193)


Conservation FarmingZambia



Agricultural mitigation


Carbon dioxide

Methane

Nitrous oxide


Agroforestry


Putting Carbon back2-4 tons C /haPlus 10-20 tons standing crop

Faidherbia


The New Rices for Africa (NERICAs)

Sustainable Genetic Intensification


Hybrid Rice

Developing plants with a combination of traits promoting sustainable production


Golden Rice Orange-Fleshed

Sweet Potato

Blight resistant potatoes

Nutrients and disease



$500 million losses a year in Uganda

Academia Sinica provided sweet pepper gene

Successfully transferred to bananas

In Ugandan field trials

Entirely government funded

Bananas resistant to wiltUganda



Farmer Associations

Cooperatives

Cereal Banks

Contract Farms

Outgrowers

SustainableSocio-Economic Intensification


Sustainably intensify the links between farmersand farmers and value chains


African Farmers in the Digital Age


Kofi AnnanGordon ConwaySam Dryden

Input MarketsInput Markets


Output marketsWarehouses



URBAN LIVELIHOODS

RURAL DEVELOPMENT

RESEARCH & DEVELOPMENT

NATIONAL MARKETS

ASSUMED RISK

FOOD PROCESSING

YOUTH

ADDED VALUE

RURAL LIVELIHOODS

REGIONALMARKETS

INTERNATIONAL MARKETS

FOOD PRODUCTION

VALU

E CH

AIN

S

LAND TENURE

BUILD RESILIENCE


INSURANCE

Value Chains


READY TO EAT

MILLET MEALS ON THE SHELF

TRADITIONAL MILLET BASED MEALS

HOME BASEDMILLET PROCESSING

READY TO COOK

MILLET PRODCUTSON THE SHELF

Transformed Millet Value Chain

Source: OusmaneBadiane


POPULATION GROWTH TO 2050

World

Africa

Source: UN Population Division, 2012

Population of Tropics will exceed rest of world by 2050Roughly half of the extra people will be in Sub-Saharan Africa

Imperial College, Imperial College, London

Women Food Processors


Producing snacksSeseco

in Uganda


Maize Cob ShellerUganda

Youthful entrepreneurs



The total value of agribusiness value chains is estimated at 5 trillion USDSource: KPMG (2014)

Insurance

UK £6Billion lost every year due to Supply chain disruption

Dr Erik Chavez winners-project.org Imperial College, London

WINnERS Consortium Imperial College

World Food ProgramIFC, Swiss Re, Willis, RabobankSAB Miller, Bayer, Syngenta, YaraSainsburysAGRAEuropean Universities

Today


Resilience


Farmer Innovation in theSunderbansIndia

Resilient livelihoods



Resilient livelihoods



Some questions


How do we evaluate the performance and outcome of SI technologies and policy interventions?

How do we upscale those that are successful?

What are the appropriate political, economic and social contexts for success?


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The Institute for the Future of Food and Nutrition Systems


sustainable intensification is the answer to global food insecurity (sir gordon conway)

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