sustainable horizons in futuretransport · o lay out effective technology - and organisational...
TRANSCRIPT
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Shift Sustainable Horizons in FutureTransport
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Shift will enable better policy making
o Define the role of transportation in the overall Nordic energy system.
o Lay out effective technology- and organisational innovations
o Identify near-term policy actions that will boost energy efficiency and reduce CO2 emissions.
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Three things that make Shift a very cool project
o Technology modelling fused with innovation- and behavioural research.
o Highly interesting and policy relevant case studies.
o Ambitious communication strategy an integral component of the project.
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Why transport?
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Energy use and CO2 emissions from Nordic transport have increased 3.5 times since 1960.
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This contrasts sharply with a desired future
Energy use in Nordic transport in a Carbon Neutral Scenario
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Reduced transport demand, intelligent modal shifts and better technology are all needed
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Systems modelling ensures consistency; focus areas provide Nordic relevance
WP1. Energy Systems Modelling
WP4. Policy analysis
WP2. System
transitions
WP3. Modal shift
Urban passenger
Long-haul freight
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Communication
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o Influence policy o Stimulate debate o Contribute to neighbouring research
Aims
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Means
o Visual identity o Website o Policy communication strategy o Media strategy
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Targets
o Policy makers o Decision makers in industry o Other researchers o Public…
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And now some details…
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WP1. Energy Systems Modelling
WP4. Policy analysis
WP2. System
transitions
WP3. Modal shift
Urban passenger
Long-haul freight
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WP1 will strengthen energy systems modelling and
scenario analysis
o Will provide backdrop an and analytical framework to the entire project o Better tools will give stronger systems analysis o Transport modelling substantially improved
Lead: Kenneth Karlsson, DTU
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Three tasks: context, model development and analysis
o Characterisation of a Nordic background energy scenario
o Development and integration of modal shift, technology innovation and travel behaviour in dynamic energy system models
o Exploration of selected hypotheses on the transport sector
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Understanding interdependencies and “soft” issues are major contributions to state-of-the art
o A consistent Nordic energy system model with an advanced transport module increase the value for policy makers • Value of Nordic co-ordination • Optimise resource use and system flexibility • Impacts of new technology
o Enabling models to handle non-technical issues will add critical value • No large scenario models currently include these issues • Modal shift and demand changes key examples
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WP1. Energy Systems Modelling
WP4. Policy analysis
WP2. System
transitions
WP3. Modal shift
Urban passenger
Long-haul freight
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WP2 focus on factors of development and diffusion of transport technologies and organisational innovation
Deliverables include comparative case studies that characterise: o Dynamic interplay of actors and innovative activities in successive
phases of system transformation o Drivers and barriers of change o Policy measures, tools and targets that can promote sustainable
transport innovation
Lead: Steven Sarasini, Viktoria Swedish ICT
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WP2 examines qualitative dimensions of technological systemic change
o Synergies and conflicts between technologies and fuels, both historically
and presently o The role of business model innovation in boosting the uptake of low-carbon
technology o The role of electrified highways in the Nordic transport system o Organisational innovations that can assist in decarbonising long-haul freight
The role of public policy is a central dimension throughout the work.
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WP2 will address three theoretical gaps
o The role of organisational innovations (e.g. new business models) as an
enabler of technological change
o Synergies between technologies and organisational innovations
o The field of sustainability transitions lacks a ’practice perspective’ that can elucidate effective forms of governance
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WP1. Energy Systems Modelling
WP4. Policy analysis
WP2. System
transitions
WP3. Modal shift
Urban passenger
Long-haul freight
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WP3 examines drivers, barriers and effects of modal shifts
o Modal shifts and associated effects under different scenarios; passenger and freight transport
o Analysis of the institutional set up in the Nordic case countries that impact movement towards a sustainable modal shift.
o Assessment of the potential for non-polluting and non-transport substitutes for passenger transport.
Lead: Tanu Priya Uteng (TOI)
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WP3 applies methods from economic, technical and institutional analysis
o Novel combination of travel behaviour surveys with other datasets to plot the rationale for passenger modal choice.
o Statistical analysis of combinations of specific datasets with broader trends.
o Combine qualitative and quantitative methods to analyse the case for shared mobility.
o Detailed modelling of energy demand and emissions (CO2, SOx, NOx and particulates) will complement WP1 analyses.
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WP 3 addresses specific Nordic knowledge gaps and contributes to the general state-of-the art
o A coherent approach/methodology to assess future modal share across
the Nordic region. o Provide much needed input on modal shift to energy systems modeling o Regional analysis and cross country institutional arrangements and
barriers wrt future modal shifts. o Assessing the viability of shared mobility as an alternative form of public
transport in the Nordic countries.
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WP1. Energy Systems Modelling
WP4. Policy analysis
WP2. System
transitions
WP3. Modal shift
Urban passenger
Long-haul freight
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WP4 will enable better future policies via analysis of past policies in three areas
o Passenger travel in Denmark, Norway and Sweden o Urban transport in three Nordic cities o Long-haul freight in Denmark and Sweden
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WP4 will quantify aspects that are often left to “expert judgment”
o Qualitative analysis have dominated efforts to evaluate policy instrument design in applied energy research
Our contribution: o Novel econometric and discrete choice modelling o New, Nordic-specific data o Bottom-up (microeconomic) approach on technology use o Synthesizing the findings with ideas from game theory and behavioral
economics
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WP4 is econometrics at its best…
o Accurately identify the actual effects of existing policy instrument design in the Nordic region
o Testing the efficacy of alternative policy instrument design o Energy and emissions associated with policy instrument options are key
outputs
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WP4 will provide other WPs with robust explanatory factors
o Give reasonable estimates of policy effects in the broader energy system (WP1)
o Identify statistically significant explanatory factors to the analysis of demand shifts carried out in WP2
o Identify statistically significant explanatory factors to the analysis of modal shifts and mobility solutions in WP3
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Management
o Project Manager (Markus Wråke) o Communications Manager (Helena Davidsson) o Management Group (PM, CM, WP leads) o Advisory Board
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