sustainable food security under land and water stresses nnyaladzi batisani botswana institute for...
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Sustainable Food Security Under Land and Water Stresses
Nnyaladzi Batisani Botswana Institute for Technology Research and Innovation
Gaborone, Botswana
African European Residential School4 August 2014
University of Botswana, Gaborone, Botswana
Africa's food security challenges unmanageable
without addressing climate change, land tenure
(Braimoh Ademola, 2012)
• Africa's need to increase productivity for about 750 million people in
Africa by 2050 • the lack of resilience in the agricultural sector to cope with climate
change • impact is likely to decrease crop yields to as low as 20-30 per cent.
• Africa deal with green house gas emissions
Climate Smart Agriculture
Resource depletion and land degradation
• Land tenure a big factor decimating food production in Africa– how farmers can be assured that if they plant crops this year, the next year they
will not be driven away from the same plot of land
• Governments, through partnerships with institutions such as the
World Bank, ensure that there is access to farming land both for
men and women
• Agriculture is a risky businessgovernments and partners have failed to address the risks involved
Local Dimensions of Global Change
• All global change is local
• Causes occur in local places
• Effects occur in local places
• Responses implemented in local places
Location of weather stations used in the analysis
Drought dynamics and severity
a b
c d
Spatial distribution of severe drought in Botswana For (a) 3-month SPI, (b) 6-month SPI, (c) 9-month SPI, and (d) 12-month SPI
3-month SPI 6 month SPI
9 month SPI 12 month SPI
Percentage drought occurrence at corresponding drought categories and
drought duration
Climate variability and change
Rainfall spatial stability
Stations Annual Rainfall Trend p-value
Francistown -2.36 0.02a
Gantsi -2.24 0.03a
Kasane 0.21 0.83
Lobatse -2.16 0.03a
Maun -1.17 0.02a
Molepolole -1.51 0.01a
Serowe -0.10 0.09b
Tsabong -1.72 0.09b
a Significant at p<0.05b Significant at p<0.10
Station Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Francis-town NE
-0.36 -0.65 0.70 -1.35 -1.27 1.41b -0.17 -2.49b -1.92a -1.96b 0.37 0.52
Gantsi W -1.52 0.13 -0.18 -0.63 -0.69 1.59 0.38 -1.13 -1.69 -1.80 0.37 -1.23
Kasane N -0.58 -0.13 -1.04 0.79 -0.69 1.14 0.00 1.35 1.03 -1.1 0.42 -1.07
Lobatse SE -2.45b -0.02 -1.25 -0.80 -0.10 -0.68 -1.81 -2.66b -2.01a -0.28 -1.01 1.33
Maun N -0.71 -0.91 -1.17 -0.02 -0.97 0.28 0.38 -0.85 -1.44 -1.54 -0.06 0.91
Molepolole SE
-2.27a -0.06 -1.38 -0.15 0.69 0.57 -0.81 -2.48b -2.52b -0.37 0.59 0.97
Serowe E -0.47a -0.73 -0.81 -0.48 0.31 2.04 -0.60a -1.21 -2.07a -0.41 0.66 0.11
Tsabong S -0.94 -1.90a -1.01 -0.15 0.90 -0.77 -1.47 -2.19a -1.18 -0.13 -0.84 0.91
Trends of monthly rainfall
a Significant at p<0.05b Significant at p<0.10 decline
sign. decline
increase
sign. increase
Stations Mean number of rainy days/year
Trend rainy days/year
Sign. level trendsp-value
Rainy days/year vs AnnualRainfall R2
Gantsi 33 -1.04 0.03* 0.10
Maun 37 -1.43 0.15 0.85
Mochudi 24 -1.04 0.30 0.26
Serowe 22 -1.04 0.30 0.41
Shakawe 35 -1.14 0.26 0.69
Tsabong 24 -2.18 0.02* 0.06
* Significant at p<0.05
Linking rainfall variability and dry land crop yield
(a) Rainfall stability withyield stability of (b) maize and (c) sorghum
(a)(b) (c)
Holistic Approach to Climate Change Holistic Approach to Climate Change AdaptationAdaptation
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
food inflation
-2000
-1000
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
quaters
quat
erly
bal
ance
of p
aym
ents
(m
illio
n B
W P
)
The global food price in 2007–08 (von Braun, 2008)
Food price inflation dynamics in Botswana (CSO, 2009)
Botswana quarterly real GDP growth ( CSO, 2009)
Botswana quarterly balance of payments (BoB, 2009)
Adaptation toolboxAdaptation toolbox
Development of Decision Development of Decision support systemssupport systems
Determination of on set of the planting season
Yield gap analysisYield gap analysis
Real-time rainfall measurement Real-time rainfall measurement
Cell phone towers Cell phone towers
Achieving food security in the midst of climate change and socioeconomic perturbations
• Mainstreaming climate change in the broader economic agenda, rather
than taking a narrow agricultural perspective
• Climate smart agriculture:
– crop and livestock insurance,
– social safety nets,
– research on and dissemination of heat, and drought-resistant crops,
– conservation of traditional plant varieties with those characteristics.
– new irrigation schemes combined with and better market access for high-value products
– design of new irrigation schemes and the retrofitting of existing ones to cater for the
expected increase in rainfall variability and stream flows
– better climate information such as provision of long-term weather forecast
THANK YOU