sustainable degrowth giorgos kallis icrea professor, icta, universidad autonoma de barcelona ...
TRANSCRIPT
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Sustainable Degrowth
Giorgos KallisICREA Professor,
ICTA, Universidad Autonoma de Barcelonawww.eco2bcn.es
Uppsala, 23 September 2010
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I will try to convince you, that:
1. Degrowth is a new, exciting and inevitable policy proposal.
2. Degrowth poses new questions and opens new avenues for research.
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Structure of this presentation
1. Growth is unsustainable.
2. The sustainable degrowth proposal.
3. Criticism and defence.
4. New questions.
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Structure of this presentation
1. Growth is unsustainable.
i. Ecologically.ii. Socially.iii. Economically.
2. The sustainable degrowth proposal.
3. Criticism and defence.
4. New questions.
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Infinite growth is impossible in a finite planet.
The economy is an entropic process.
Finite stocks are being depleted.
“Thermal pollution”.
Degrowth is inevitable, the objective should be to arrest its pace by turning from “funds” to “flows”.
Nicholas Georgescu-Roegen (1906-1994)
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Limits to Growth
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The optimist response:
Denial
No limits anytime soon.
No climate change.
“We’ve been through this again”
Technology and efficiency.
Sustainable Development via Green Growth.
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Energy Return on Energy Investment (EROI)
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The impossible arithmetics of climate change
To achieve the 450ppm stabilization target by 2050, we need 21 to 130-fold improvement in carbon intensity (gCO2/$)
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Absolute decoupling is not happening.
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Rebound effects
Responses that tend to offset the conservation benefits of a more efficient technology and that they are causally related to the new technology.
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Jevon’s Paradox
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A “weightless economy”?
A “weightless” economy still weighs (Odum).
Labour intensive dematerialized services do not lead to growth (Jackson).
Dual economy and over-accumulation (Gorz)
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Growth cannot be sustained even in its own terms.
Over-accumulation
Ecological limits to new investment
Rising costs of growth
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So, what´s the problem if we can’t grow?
Real GDP per capita and subjective Life Satisfaction in the UK
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
160%
180%
200%
1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001
GDP
Life Satisfaction
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Does growth reduce poverty?
Globally less poor.
But the very poor are getting poorer.
Rising inequalities => more relative poverty.
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Beyond GDP is not enough.
Complementary indicators are not enough.
There are good, structural reasons why GDP is measured.
GDP is not the cause, but the effect of a growth economy.
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From Growth to Degrowth
Growth is unsustainable ≠ Degrowth is sustainable.
Degrowth can be catastrophic => how can we turn it into an opportunity? => how can we make it stable?
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Structure of this presentation
1. Growth is unsustainable.
2. The sustainable degrowth proposal.
i. Definitionii. Measurementiii. Policies
3. Criticism and defence.
4. New questions.
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What is “sustainable degrowth”?
“An equitable downscaling of production and consumption that increases human well-being and enhances ecological conditions”
Schneider, Kallis and Martinez-Alier, Vol 18 (6), 2010-
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Key notions
Downscaling and relocalization, not just efficiency improvements.
“Selective” (geographically and sectorally) degrowth.
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Measurement
Not negative GDP.
Function of well-being, (sectoral) consumption and impact, and distribution.
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Policies
Reduced working hours. Complementary currencies. Impact Caps. Taxing environmental bads. Investment in social services and relational goods. Ecological investments. Leaving resources under the ground (extended
sanctuaries) Basic income and salary caps (redistributive taxes) Stonger regulation of commercial media. Facilitate cooperative/communal forms of property and
ownership.
www.degrowth.eu
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Structure of this presentation
1. Growth is unsustainable.
2. The sustainable degrowth proposal.
3. Criticism and defence.
4. New questions.
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Imprecise
CRITICISM
What is to degrow (GDP, tons of materials, impact)?
RESPONSE
Do we need single indicators?
“Growth” was also imprecise.
Clear direction, (alternative) metrics can be worked out.
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Uncertain results
CRITICISM
What if less output with more input?
What if ecological investments decline because of degrowth?
What about “dirty” degrowth?
RESPONSE
Yes, let´s study conditions under which degrowth becomes “sustainable”.
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What about the “South” and the “Poor”?
CRITICISM
“Go tell India and China”.
Poverty alleviation requires growth.
Condescending and patronizing.
RESPONSE
The West should offer an example of commitment.
Growth to satisfy basic material needs.
Reduce inequality to tackle poverty.
Yes, alternative, post-development formulations should emerge from the “South”.
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Totalitarian
CRITICISM
You can only do this with a dictatorship.
You can´t tell people what to consume.
Technocratic elites will set limits and assume more power.
RESPONSE
Democratically-elected governments have imposed in the past radical changes.
Do not have to intervene directly on consumption.
Degrowth has to be deeply democratic, or nothing at all. “Bottom-up”.
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Too voluntaristic
CRITICISM
Humans are selfish and status-seeking; capitalism is our nature.
People like “jeans and fast foods”.
RESPONSE
Biology shows multiple potentialities; “conditioned by genes, cultures still decide”.
There have been alternative societies that were not unhappy.
People like also what they are offered.
Public action is about controlling self-destructive or group-destructive individual actions.
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Politically unrealistic
CRITICISM
People will never vote for this.
Elites will not let it happen.
RESPONSE
Small ideas can (and have) turn(ed) hegemonic.
Big and unexpected changes happen in times of crisis.
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Dangerously risky
CRITICISM
Polarises politics – the other extreme might as well benefit from the crisis.
Risks unforeseen cascade effects – “we have something, even if imperfect, why risk loosing it all”?
RESPONSE
True, but democracy should be capable of handling antagonisms.
True, but it is unlikely that what we have can be sustained indefinitely – “sustainable degrowth or barbarism?”
Change can also be gradual – address current problems but differently.
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Structure of this presentation
1. Growth is unsustainable.
2. The sustainable degrowth proposal.
3. Criticism and defence.
4. New questions.
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Research
“Metabolic scenarios” of labour, energy, labour (population), product.
Policy-impact models.
Alternatives anthropology “modern” nations, regions, communities
Social movement theory and “big” social change.
New (macro)economics