sustainable building and area development

SUSTAINABLE BUILDING AND AREA DEVELOPMENTAccelerating the transtion through automated real estate sustainability assessment

Eva [email protected]

Urban Land Institute Congress 2019.05.22

ACCELERATING SUSTAINABLE BUILDING AND AREA DEVELOPMENT

Metabolic’s mission is to transition the global economy to a fundamentally sustainable state.

CONSULTING THINK TANK VENTURES

NEIGHBORHOOD C

POPULATION:

5,380BUILT FORM:

LOWRISEUNEMPLOYMENT:

9%

NEIGHBORHOOD B

POPULATION:

18,425BUILT FORM:

HIGHRISEUNEMPLOYMENT:

11%

NEIGHBORHOOD A

POPULATION:

15,695BUILT FORM:

LOWRISEUNEMPLOYMENT:

16%

Cities are our future. To thrive, we must design local urban economies that are regenerative and waste-free by design. A circular approach to urban planning and development unlocks opportunities for resource savings, job creation, capacity building, civic engagement, healthier environments, and resilience to external shocks.

A TARGETED APPROACH TO THE CIRCULAR CITYCities are already leading the way by setting ambitious sustainability goals, but a successful future rests on translating these goals into actionable interventions.

The Metabolic Cities Program helps cities decide what, where, and how circular interventions can have the most impact and are the most cost-effective.In this program, we develop practical strategies towards a circular economy, taking the existing buildings, infrastructure, populations, and institutions as a point of departure. Our advanced spatial analysis approach works to understand the granular characteristics of city neighborhoods and highlights the different purposes each neighborhood can serve in achieving city-wide goals.

METABOLIC CITIES PROGRAMHelping cities to become inclusive, regenerative, and circular.


Fatal feedback loops

E.coli Growth Curve

Time (hrs)

No.

Via

ble

cells


Exponential times

Foreign Direct Investment

1998

US

Dolla

rs(B

ILLI

ON

)

17500

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

18001850

19001950

2000

Water Use

Km3 Y

r -1

17500

2000

4000

6000

18001850

19001950

2000

Paper Consumption

Tons

(MIL

LIO

N)

17500

50

100

150

200

250

18001850

19001950

2000

Population

Peop

le (B

ILLI

ON

)

17500

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

18001850

19001950

2000

Total Real GDP

1990

Inte

rnat

iona

lDo

llars

(1012

)

17500

15

30

45

18001850

19001950

2000

Damming of Rivers

Dam

s (TH

OUS

AND)

17500

4

8

12

16

20

24

28

18001850

19001950

2000

Fertilizer Consumption

Tonn

es o

f Nut

rient

s(M

ILLI

ON

)

17500

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

18001850

19001950

2000

Transport: Motor Vehicles

Num

ber (

MIL

LIO

N)

17500

200

400

600

800

18001850

19001950

2000

Atmosphere:CO2 Concentration

CO2

(ppm

v)

17500

300

340

360

18001850

19001950

2000

320

280

Climate: Nothern HemisphereAverage Surface Temperature

Tem

pera

ture

Anom

aly

(OC)

1750-0.5

0

0.5

1.0

18001850

19001950

2000

Ocean Ecosystems

Fish

erie

s Ful

lyEx

ploi

ted

(%)

17500

20

40

60

80

100

18001850

19001950

2000

Terrestrial Ecosystems: Loss of TropicalRain Forest and Woodland

% o

f 170

0 Va

lue

17500

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

18001850

19001950

2000

Atmosphere:Ozone Depletion

Loss

of T

otal

Colu

mn

Ozo

ne (%

)

17500

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

18001850

19001950

2000

Climate: Great Floods

Deca

dal F

lood

Freq

uenc

y

17500

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

18001850

19001950

2000

Global Biodiversity

Spec

ies E

xtin

ctio

ns(T

HO

USAN

D)

17500

10

20

30

18001850

19001950

2000


Sustainability challenges


Population unaffected by Water shortages in 2020

Remaining Arable Land

Remaining Fish Stocks

Remaining Oil Reserves

Remaining Forest

Remaining Wetlands

Unextracted Copper

Remaining Natural Areas


Beyond zone of uncertainty (high risk)In zone of uncertainty (increasing risk)

Boundary not yet quantifiedBelow boundary (safe)

PLANETARY BOUNDARIESA safe operating space for humanity

Source: Steffen et al. Planetary Boundaries: Guiding human development on a changing planet, Science, 16 January 2015.Design: Globaia

dive

rsity

Geneti

c

dive

rsity

Func

tiona

l

Phosphorus Nitrogen

CHANGECLIMATEENTITIES

NOVEL

OZONE DEPLETION

STRATOSPHERICINTE

GRITY

BIOS

PHER

E

FRESHWATERUSE

BIOGEOCHEMICALFLOWS

OCEAN

ACIDIFICATION

ATM

OSPH

ERIC

AERO

SOL

LOAD

INGLAND - SYSTEM

CHANGE

Planetary boundaries

Source: Rockstromm et. al,Stockholm Resilience Centre

Beyond zone of uncertainty (high risk)In zone of uncertainty (increasing risk)

Boundary not yet quantifiedBelow boundary (safe)

PLANETARY BOUNDARIESA safe operating space for humanity

Source: Steffen et al. Planetary Boundaries: Guiding human development on a changing planet, Science, 16 January 2015.Design: Globaia

dive

rsity

Geneti

c

dive

rsity

Func

tiona

l

Phosphorus Nitrogen

CHANGECLIMATEENTITIES

NOVEL

OZONE DEPLETION

STRATOSPHERICINTE

GRITY

BIOS

PHER

E

FRESHWATERUSE

BIOGEOCHEMICALFLOWS

OCEAN

ACIDIFICATION

ATM

OSPH

ERIC

AERO

SOL

LOAD

INGLAND - SYSTEM

CHANGE


A systems approach1. All problems stem from a

smaller number of root causes

2. Exponential challenges can be addressed by exponential solutions

3. Using systems theory, we can find leverage points for lasting change

4. The circular economy is a framework that allows us to find true pathways to eco-economic decoupling

DESIGNING THE CIRCULAR CITY OF THE FUTURE

WE HAVE TO TRANSFORM THE ECONOMY. WHERE DO WE

START?


The global material flow: 2010

NORTH AMERICA

SOUTH AMERICA

EUROPE

AFRICA

MIDDLE EAST

ASIAOCEANIA

CENTRAL AMERICA

IRRIGATION (1,47 billion m3)

INDUSTRY (0,399 billion m3)

DOMESTIC (0,23 billion m3)

11 %

18 %

12 %

7 %

25 %

13 %

20 %

6 %

15 %

1 %4 %1 %5 %

2 %

16 %

11 %

1 %

39 %

29 %32 %

60 %

67 %

13 %

6 %

6 %

6 %

6 %

2 %2 %

1 %

16 %

4 %

26 %

3 %

8 %

FOOD (12 BT)

INDUSTRIAL MINERALS (2,5 BT)

CONSTRUCTION MINERALS (30,5 BT)

FEED (10,3 BT)

NON-FOOD CROPS (0,02 BT)

WASTE WATER(1.500 km3)

CHEMICALS (1,03 BT)MEDIUM-TERM STOCK

(2,36 billion tons)

LONG-TERM STOCK(32,1 billion tons)

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTS (5,02 BT)

FIBER (0,02 BT)

TRANSPORT (1,85 BT)

OTHER (6,51 BT)

ANIMALS (0,15 BT)

15 %

MINERALS(33 billion tons)

FRESH WATER(2.1 billion m3)

ORES(15,6 billion tons)

BIOMASS(24,8 billion tons)

FOOD WASTE (2,19 BT)

METAL (0,218 BT)

PLASTIC (0,226 BT)

OTHER (0,365 BT) DUMPED (0,71 BT)

LANDFILLED (1,275 BT)

COMPOSTED (0,21 BT)

RECYCLED (0,41 BT)

INCINERATED (0,35 BT)

OTHER (0,365 BT)

PAPER (0,407 BT)

ORGANIC (0,88 BT)

NON-HAZARDOUS INDUSTRIAL (1,2 BT)

HAZARDOUS INDUSTRIAL (0,4 BT)

CONSTRUCTION WASTE (1,4 BT)

AUTOMOTIVE WASTE (0,083 BT)

WOOD (1,1 BT)

METALS (7,38 BT)

DISPERSED (28,7 billion tons)

SHORT TERM STOCK)(1,01 billion tons) MUNICIPAL SOLID WASTE

(3,4 billion tons)

NON MSW WASTE(7,8 billion tons)

FORESTRY (2,35 BT)

OIL (4,37 BT)

GAS (2,84 BT)

COAL (36,89 BT)

FOSSIL FUELS(44,1 billion tons)

ORE RESIDUES (4,7 BT)

THIS IS HOW LINEAR THE GLOBAL ECONOMY ACTUALLY IS:

The Global Metabolism Flow that was conducted by Metabolic in 2010 shows that we have extracted an estimated 71,8 billion tonnes of material from the Earth to fuel the global economy. These include: biomass (food, feed, forestry, and other), fossil fuels (coal, gas, oil, and other), ores, minerals (industrial and construction). Out of these: • Almost 11% is wasted prior to use (food and industrial waste). • An estimated 18% of approximately 3,4 billion tonnes of global Municipal Solid Waste is recycled or composted. An additional 10% is incinerated. The remainder is lost.

LEGEND:Biomass (food, feed, forestry, and other)

Fossil fuels (coal, gas, oil, and other)

Ores

Minerals (industrial and construction)

Fresh water

www.metabolic.nl@METABOLIC HQ

TOTAL GLOBAL MATERIAL FLOWS, 2010• Out of the total annual solid waste collection of 11,2 billion tonnes per year, only an estimated 6,2% is recovered in a form that has high utility for future use (recycling or composting). An additional 33% is recovered in a form that has low-medium utility for future use (downcycling or incineration).• Aside from these solid materials, the other largest “lost” flow is untreated wastewater: 80% of domestic and 70% of industrial wastewater streams remain untreated (184,4 km3 and 279,3 km3 respectively).

This immense material throughput and the inefficiencies of each stage of materials’ and products’ lifespans and the overall speed at which they are extracted are obviously too large and call for a radical rethinking of how the current system is designed. The linear “take, make, waste” model of production-consumption systems is self-evidently unsustainable, with the operation of some key industries being primarily responsible for the major biospheric and human wellbeing issues.

Reducing material throughput, increasing efficiency gains, and extending the useful lifespan of materials and products (both within a single product's life cycle and across product cascades), and closing resource loops is essential for fixing the global metabolism and changing the way the current economic system is functioning.


Intervention areas

The Food System Cities Manufacturing

Chemicals & Plastics Finance Buildings & Infastructure


CITIES AND THE BUILT ENVIRONMENT:

A LEVERAGE POINT


& PRODUCE 60-80% OF GLOBAL GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS

CITIES OCCUPY 3% OF GLOBAL LAND SURFACE

BUT CONSUME 75% OF GLOBAL RESOURCES

Cities as leverage points


Current situation: linear


THE LIFE CYCLE IMPACTS OF BUILDINGSEN

ERGY

NATIONALGOALS

LIFE CYCLEBREAK DOWN

NATIONALCONSUMPTION

DETAILEDBREAK DOWN

MAT

ERIA

LSCL

IMAT

E

Use phase85%

Construction59%

1% Demolition

75% Use phase

Space heating 61%

Lighting & appliance 14%Water & heating 12%Other (cooling, AC..) 3%

35-40%

50-60%

40%

Energyconsumption

CO2 Emissionsconsumption

Raw materialconsumption

Energyin life cycle

CO2in life cycle

Material usein life cycle

Use phaseenergy

Emissionsfrom materials

Constructionmaterials

1,90

0,00

0 TJ

140

mill

ion

tonn

es21

6 m

illio

n to

nnes

Nationaal Grondstoffenakkord, 2017

50%less use of primary

resources

2030Aggregate 46%

Concrete 42%

Bricks 7%Steel 3%Wood 2%

Aluminium 0,2%Stone, glass & clay 1,2%

Copper 0,1%

Aggregate 1,2%

Concrete 31%

Bricks 13%

Steel 35%

Wood 0,6%

Aluminium 13,3%

Stone, glass & clay 4,7%Copper 2,2%

CO2: Klimaatwet, 2018

49%CO2 reduction

2030

6% Use phase

35% Renovation

6% Renovation9% Construction

Renovation &Construction

24%

100 Peta-Joules saved until 202014% renewable

energy generation

2020

Energieakkoord, 2013


ENERGY CONSUMPTION ACROSS BUILDING TYPES

2020 2023 2030 2050

Saving in energy consumption by 1,5% per year100 Peta-Joules saved until 202014% renewable energy generation

16% renewable energy generation

50% less use of primary resources (minerals, fossils, metals)49% CO2 reduction // 1990

100% circular95% CO2 reduction // 1990100% CO2-neutral electricity production

CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS:Share of national consumption (Mass)

and corresponding CO2 emissionMASS CO2

46%

42%

7%3%2%

0,2%1,2%

0,1%

1,2%

31%

13%

35%

0,6%

13,3%

4,7%2,2%

> RESIDENTIAL > RESIDENTIAL

> OFFICE > OFFICE

Construction59%

Renovation

Use phase5,5%

35,4%

> OFFICE

Renovation + Construction 24%

Demolition

Use phase75%

1%

Demolition1,8%

> RETAIL

Space heating 61%

Lighting & appliance 14%Water & heating 12%Other (cooling, AC..) 3%Construction

2%

Renovation

Use phase90%

8%

Space heating 32%

Lighting 18%

ICT 15,5%

Cooling 4,5%Other 10%

Construction16%

Renovation

Use phase80%

4%

Other 5%

Product cooling 53%

Lighting 23%

Space heating 12%Product operation 7%

Use phaseNA

> OFFICE

Construction9,2%

Renovation

Use phase82,1%

6,8%

> INDUSTRY

Demolition1,6%

Construction7,9%

Renovation

Use phase84,6%

5,9%

Demolition0,1% Construction

0,6%

Renovation

Use phase98,8%

0,4%

GOALSDutch national sustainability policy goals, regarding Energy, Materials and CO2

IMPACT OFTHE BUILT ENVIRONMENTPercentage of the national consumption and emission allocated to construction, demolition and use-phase of buildings

Energieakkoord, 2013

Nationaal Grondstoffenakkord, 2017; uitgewerktin rapport ‘Nederland circulair in 2050’, 2016

CO2: Klimaatwet, 2018

50-60%of national raw materialconsumption

25-30%of nationalwaste production

40%of national CO2 emissions

11%of national consumption

35-40%of national energy consumption

ENERGY MATERIALS CO2 WATER

Aggregate Concrete Bricks SteelWood Aluminium*Stone, glass & clay Copper

LIFE CYCLE IMPACT ALLOCATIONDistribution within the life cycle of residential, office, retail an industry buildings


CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS AND CLIMATE CHANGE

Construction materialsShare of national consumption (Mass) and corresponding CO2 emission

MASS CO2

Aggregate 46%

Concrete 42%

Bricks 7%Steel 3%

Wood 2%Aluminium 0,2%

Stone, glass & clay 1,2%

Copper 0,1%

Aggregate 1,2%

Concrete 31%

Bricks 13%

Steel 35%

Wood 0,6%

Aluminium 13,3%

Stone, glass & clay 4,7%Copper 2,2%

Steel accounts for only 3% of the mass of construction materials but 35% of CO2 emissions

Concrete contributes to 31% of CO2 emissions

Aggregate is almost half of the building material mass but only 1.2% of the CO2 emissions


BUILDINGS SHAPE OUR LIVES

• Construction is responsible for 13% of global GDP and employs 7% of the global working-age population

• 85% of our time is spent indoors

• 2/3 of the complaints about the environment and health involve the indoor environment

• People who live in communities where it is easy to get around on foot weigh 6–10 pounds less than people who don’t

• The most common forms of urban development – suburban sprawl and vertical high-rise sprawl - cause loneliness


CAN HOUSING FACILITATE HAPPINESS?

The metabolic cities program


DESIGNING CIRCULAR

AND SUSTAINABLE BUILT ENVIRONMENTS


Way of working: Systems Approach

DE CEUVEL

DE CEUVEL • Polluted piece of industrial land

• 5000 m2 / 1.2 acres

• Special tender put out by municipality

• 10 year land lease - temporary development

• Plan submitted for creative eco-office park

• Total budget 0.5 million euro

• High ambitions of circularity

PUREURINE

PUREURINE

TOILETWASTE

GREYWATER

KITCHENWASTE

RAINWATER

KITCHENWASTE

KITCHENWASTE

• • • • • •• •• • • • • • •

• •• • • • •• • • •

• •• • •• • • • •• • • • • • •• • • • • • • • •

• • • • •• • • • • • • • •

CAFÉDE CEUVEL

DE CEUVELCOMMUNITY

METABOLICEXPERIENCE CENTER

10-20 L/d 50-100 L/d 0,5-2 L/d 80 L/d 70-140 kg/month 0-5 L/d 10-100 L/d 20-150 L/d

URBAN BIOREFINERY

GREENHOUSE

80 L/d 50-100 kg/m10-36 L/d

0,6-3kg/m

For showcase/tasting

Furtherpurification

Discharge intothe ground

PRE-TREATEDURINE

COMPOSTEXPERIMENTALCOMPOST

TREATEDWASTEWATER

DRINKINGWATER

STRUVITE &ZEOLITE MIX

70-220 L/d

Buiksloterham

BUIKSLOTERHAM• Polder in the northern part of the city,

constructed from deposited dredge materials.

• Former industrial area: petrochemical industry, waste incineration, etc.

• An area in transition: 6500 future inhabitants; 8000 future workers in the area.

Buiksloterham

Schoonschip

SCHOONSCHIP • Most sustainable neighborhood in Europe: 100%

energy neutral, 70% self-sufficient in terms of water.

• Floating houseses on the water next to the ceuvel.

• 46 Households; 30 Buildings.

Schoonschip


Introduction

SCALING UP: CAN WE AUTOMATE THIS

KNOWLEDGE?


Developing a holistic sustainability assessment framework for real estate impacts:

• Minimal but broad set of impact indicators defined across three categories.

• Primary goal: developing the indicators in a way that they can be calculated automatically, without time-consuming data entry.

PILOT PROJECT WITH ABN AMRO: REAL ESTATE SUSTAINABILITY SCORING TOOL

CLIMATE CHANGE TRANSITION

• Energy label• Renewable power on-site• Roof solar energy potential

• EV charge station availability• Public transport power• Walkscore

• Promote sustainable energy use

• Promote sustainable mobility

CIRCULAR ECONOMY TRANSITION

•Building life extension• Local recycling system• Embodied CO2e emissions

• Land-use change impact

• Promote sustainable material use

• Provide space for new natural ecosystems

• Water consumption• Minimize consumption of ecosystem resources

SOCIETAL TRANSITION

• Mixed area use• Affordable housing

• Provide space for new natural ecosystems

• Ensure diversity

• Support strong local cohesion

• Road density• Pedestrian / cycle path density

• Provide human scale infrastructure

• Green/blue space density

• Social cohesion

• Household density• Noise pollution• Air quality• Amenity / key services

• Provide high-quality living environment


AUTOMATABLE SCORESPROPERTY CIRCULARITY REPORT

FUNCTION:

residential

TYPE:

new

SIZE:

unknown

Hoogte Kadijk 145B1018 BH, Amsterdam

CIRCULARITY INDICATOR: SCORE:

SOCIETAL TRANSITION TOTAL SCOREGreen/blue spaceMixed area useAffordable housingSocial cohesionHousehold densityNoise pollutionAir qualityAmenity / key servicesRoad densityPedestrian / cycle path density

3.9

CLIMATE CHANGE TRANSITION TOTAL SCOREEnergy labelRenewable power on-siteRoof solar energy potentialEV charge station availabilityPublic transport powerWalkscore

4.3

TOTAL SCORE

2.8

CIRCULAR ECONOMY TRANSITIONBuilding life extensionLocal recycling systemEmbodied CO2 emissionsLand-use change impactWater consumption

4

5

3

5

5

5

3

1

2

5

3

2

5

5

2

5

1

3

4

2

5

AUTOMATED SCORING:

76%INTERVIEW QUESTIONS:

2

AUTOMATED SCORING:


11

AUTOMATED SCORING:


3


TRANSLATING THE FRAMEWORK

Process BAG data

AuthenticationAPI

WizardQuestions

API

PostcodeAPI

ClimateTransitionScore API

CircularEconomyTransitionScore API

SocietalTransitionScore API

Database(e.g. user accounts, keys,roles & rights, questions,

BAG data)

External APIs

Caching


TRANSLATING THE FRAMEWORK


DATA

• Not all entries with matching IDs

• Some entries too close to borders

• Some scores not available (primarily energy label)

METHOD

• Dealing with missing values

• Evaluating areas with different levels of urbanisation

• Evaluating newly developed areas

CHALLENGES


FUNCTION:

unknown

TYPE:

unknown

SIZE:

unknown

High Tech Campus 255656AE, Eindhoven

SOCIETAL TRANSITION TOTAL SCOREGreen/blue spaceMixed area useAffordable housingSocial cohesionHousehold densityNoise pollutionAir qualityAmenity / key servicesRoad densityPedestrian / cycle path density

4.0

CLIMATE CHANGE TRANSITION TOTAL SCOREEnergy labelRenewable power on-siteRoof solar energy potentialEV charge station availabilityPublic transport powerWalkscore

3.4

TOTAL SCORE

N/A

CIRCULAR ECONOMY TRANSITIONBuilding life extensionLocal recycling systemEmbodied CO2 emissionsLand-use change impactWater consumption

3

-

5

5

-

2

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

4

-

-

-

3

5

4

5

3

4

MAP

ADDRESS

SCORE OUTPUTS


Introduction

ADDED VALUE AND KEY USES


Fast • Automation allows for the rapid, large-scale

assessment of whole real estate portfolios at relatively low cost.

• Other tools, like the current standard GRESB, rely almost exclusively on extensive surveys. This results in very low coverage of real estate portfolios.


Holistic & Contextual• Comparison of multiple impact categories

(from energy to social impact) to understand trade-offs.

• Looking at actual peformance metrics rather than policies and commitments (as is most common in e.g., GRESB).

• Information on how the value of real estate projects is influenced by their surroundings (and vice versa), i.e., through walkability, green space, air quality, access to key services, etc.


Identify patterns & high-priority interventions• Rapidly evaluate a full real estate portfolio to

identify impact hotspots and low-hanging fruit across multiple impact categories.

• Correlate specific data points with financial performance and risk.

• Pre-screen new investments for problematic characteristics - and provide guidance to developers for how to improve.

• Evaluate how real estate values in surrounding area increase as a result of beneficial projects that provide social goods and services.

• In the long-run: build out predictive scenarios that can lead to investment in improved urban planning.


Next steps• The initial pilot conducted with ABN AMRO

yielded positive results and confirmed that many essential indicators can be automatically calculated using existing datasets.

• We are now conducting deeper analysis on the results to identify correlations and ground-truth our findings.

• Additional inputs are needed to develop further indicators and improve current ones.

• One of the most important next steps is the development of modules for identifying the most promising interventions (from ROI and impact-reduction perspective).

Eva GladekCEO Metabolic

[email protected] // @MetabolicHQ

sustainable building and area development

Documents