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Civil Society Dialogue Mee1ng on Dra4 Incep1on Report

Wednesday 5th November, 2015

Sustainability Impact Assessment on the EU-‐Myanmar Investment Protec1on

Agreement

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SIA on the EU-‐Myanmar Investment Protec@on Agreement, EC Interservice Group Mee@ng

•  Work completed to date on SIA •  Methodological Framework

–  Scenarios: Baseline and with Investment Protec@on Agreement in place –  Quan@ta@ve analysis –  Qualita@ve analysis –  Stakeholder consulta@on

•  Preliminary Overview: Overall and Sectoral Analysis –  Overall Analysis –  Sector selec@on –  Stakeholder Consulta@on

•  Work Plan and Timeline

Structure of the presenta1on

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•  Kick-‐off Mee@ng with the European Commission (8 September 2015)

•  DraW incep@on report (uploaded to SIA website 27 October 2015)

•  SIA website (launched on 27 October 2015): www.eu-‐myanmarsia.com

Work completed to date on SIA

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Scenarios: •  I. Baseline (overall and sector perspec@ve)

–  Current economic, social, environmental and HR situa@on –  Development without IPA (eco, social, environ, HR) –  Methodology: Literature review, economic modelling, stakeholders

•  II. With Investment Protec@on Agreement in place (overall and sector perspec@ve) –  Poten@al provisions in IPA –  Economic, social, environmental and HR impacts of IPA –  Methodology: Economic modelling, qualita@ve indicators, stakeholder

consulta@on

Methodological Framework

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•  Economic modelling –  Data review –  Proposed methodology

•  Qualita@ve analysis –  Economic indicators (FDI, surveys, SME-‐Test) –  Social indicators (EU Be^er Regula@on Toolbox, ILO Decent Work

Agenda) –  Environmental indicators (EU Be^er Regula@on Toolbox, OECD

Indicators, European Environment Agency indicators) –  Human rights indicators (EU Guidelines on the analysis of Human

Rights impacts)

•  Stakeholder consulta@on –  Interviews, workshop, website and online ques@onnaire

Methodological Framework (cont’d)

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•  Causal link between IPAs and increase in FDI •  Benefits and costs of IPAs in developing countries

Academic debates

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•  Economic: –  GDP growth –  Foreign Direct Investment –  Economic Reforms –  Economic objec@ves of the government –  Myanmar and other regional actors –  Regional economic integra@on and investment agreements –  EU – Myanmar Trade and Investment Rela@ons –  Economic outlook on Myanmar (sector perspec@ve)

Overall baseline scenario

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•  Social: –  Legal Framework and Evolu@on –  Effects induced by FDI –  Specific regions affected

•  Environmental:

–  Legal Framework –  Effects induced by FDI –  Specific popula@ons/regions affected by FDI –  Mi@ga@on efforts by government


Forest resources

Biodiversity

Land degrada@on

Water resources

Waste management

Air pollu@on

Climate change

Labour Educa@on

Health Inclusion

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•  Human rights: –  Legal framework and evolu@on –  Specific human rights affected by FDI –  Par@cular groups and regions affected by FDI


Rights to property

Right to due process

Freedom of expression and opinion

Rights to privacy and protec@on of data

Minority rights Right to adequate standard of living

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•  Sector selec@on, based on the following criteria: –  EU relevance –  Past and future EU investment –  Labor intensity –  Level of sensi@vity against sustainable issues

•  Important factors for subsequent analysis: –  Sectoral compe@@veness –  Economic, social, environmental and human rights impacts of IPA –  Current state of the sector and its challenges –  Poten@al for future development –  Sectoral linkages

Baseline scenario (sector level)

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Analy1cal matrix of key sustainability impacts of provisions proposed in EU-‐Myanmar IPA (dra4)

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•  Overview •  List of relevant stakeholders

–  Academia –  Businesses –  Government –  NGOs –  Social Partners

Stakeholder Consulta1on Process

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List of poten1al stakeholders No. Name Category Background information Why important for consultation

1 Department of Law, Yangon University Academician Under Ministry of Education. As an academic institution, they have been involved in different law drafting consultations and public consultation on social issues well.

2 Independent Academician/Freelance economist

Working independently. One of the economic adversers of NLD. Have written quite numbers of articles on economic and national affairs.

He is well versed in social and economic issues.

3 Yangon University of Economics Acedemia The Yangon Institute of Economics is the premier university of economics and business in Myanmar under Ministry of Education.

As an academic institution, they have been involved in different law drafting consultations and public consultation on social issues well.

6 Union of Myanmar Chamber of Commerce (Yangon) Social partner

Founded in 1919 and constituted as a non-profit. National level organization. There are 44 trade associations, eight regional chambers, eight state chambers and nine border trade chambers.

The UMFCCI normally focuses on national issues and have been holding series of stakeholder consultation meetings. Senior members are also involved in different policy making process.

7 Myanmar Garment Manufacturing Association Social partner

The MGMA was formed with the aim of contributing to the national economic development through friendly and strong cooperation among all the garment manufacturers in the country. It has now about 300 members.

Gained access to EU Market. Also investers from EU in this secotor are in Myanmar already. Potential sector for EU investors.

10 Economic Adviser/Academia

Former Professor at Yangon Institute of Economics. Now he is an adviser to the Minsiter of Trade.

Not only as an academician, but also as an adviser to the Minister of Trade, he is advising trade and economic related issues. He is also well versed with the issues of foreign investments.

18 Paung Ku NGO Founded in 2007 2007 by a consortium of international and local agencies in Myanmar. It's vision ensure 2007 by a consortium of international and local agencies in Myanmar.

Its vision ensures equity and respect for the rights of all particularly those who are marginalized. Its activities involve in peace, social justice and human rights, land, responsible investment and environmental protection.

19 Economically progressive Ecosystem Development (EcoDev) NGO

Non-governmental social and entrepreneur organization and founded by Myanmar development professionals, intellectuals and social entrepreneurs since the 1990s

Involved in rural development affairs, environmental conservation, advocacy initiatives, and decentralization process

24 International Labour Organization (ILO) Social Partner Agency dealing with labour issues, particularly international labour standards, social protection, and work opportunities for all.

Important stakeholder for FDI in terms of labour rights and freedom of association for responsible investors.

25 Confederation of Trade Union Myanmar (CTUM) Social Partner The government has officially recoganized CTUM. It is now working in 10 states across the country, “delivering basic training about the international trade union movement,”

The labor issue becomes a critical issue in Myanmar. In a way, Trade unions are playing as an important role in the labor market. Gradually, incoming FDIs are considering the condition of workers in Myanmar, trade unions are now welcome to join as stakeholders to give their input. Both have been involved in negotiating between employers and employees, particularly for industrial workers.

45 EcoDev Business Ecodev is a registered firm in Myanmar for helping local farmers to produce value added agriculture produces

Involved in rural development affairs, environmental conservation, advocacy initiatives, and decentralization process

68 International Commission of Jurists Law Adviser Promotes and protects human rights through the Rule of Law. using its unique legal expertise to develop and strengthen national and international justice systems

69 Marks & Spencer Business UK retail company active in textile and clothing Present in Myanmar since 2013

70 Philips Business Dutch business active in electronic consumer and health care goods

Plans to expand past investments into Myanmar and has several shops

!

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10 6

22

20

15

10 6

Diversity of stakeholders

Academia

Government

Businesses

Social Partners

NGOs

Interna@onal Organisa@ons

List of poten1al stakeholders

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List of poten1al stakeholders -‐ Example

5

3

1 3

6

2 3

Types of iden1fied EU business in Myanmar

Tex@le

ICT

Agriculture

Food and Beverage

Energy

Tourism

Manufacturing

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•  Ques@onnaires (paper and online) –  Consistent and comprehensive approach while taking into account the

diversity of stakeholders –  Allow for quan@ta@ve and qualita@ve assessment –  Business-‐specific sec@on –  Economic, social, environmental and human rights impacts

Stakeholder Consulta1on Process (cont’d)

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•  Local workshop –  Date: 17 December 2015 –  Venue: The Rose Garden Hotel**** (15 min from the EUD)

•  Website –  Online since 27 October 2015 –  Online ques@onnaire –  DraW Incep@on Report


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Work Plan and Timeline

Phase Tasks Month 3 4

Week 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4

Phase 2 SIA ISG Meeting 1 Civil Society Dialogue Meeting 1

Quantitative Analysis

Baseline Modelling/quantitative analysis

Scenario Revision and Sector Selection

Scenario Modelling - Overall/Sectoral

Qualitative Analysis

1st round impact assessment

Sector expert consultation

Ongoing civil society consultation & face-to-face interviews

Collation of Phase 2 Analyses

Preparation and implementation of Local Workshop Draft summary of Local Workshop Revised Quantitative Analysis Update Modelling Scenarios/Parameters Scenario Modelling – Overall/Sectoral Revised Qualitative Analysis 2nd round impact assessment Network consultation Collation of Phase 2 revised impacts

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Work Plan and Timeline (cont’d)

Phase Tasks Month 4 5

6

Week 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4

Phase 3

Revised Quantitative Analysis

- Scenario Modelling – Overall/Sectoral (cont’d)

Revised Qualitative Analysis

- 3rd round impact assessment (cont’d)

- Network consultation (cont’d)

Collation of Phase 3 revised impacts

Flanking measures and policy recommendations

Submission of Draft Final Report

Second SIA ISG meeting

Civil Society Dialogue Meeting 2

Incorporation of feedback to Final Report

Submission of Final Report

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Discussion and feedback www.eu-‐myanmarsia.com

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