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SUSTAINABILITY OF MEGA-CITIES

KEISUKE HANAKI, UT

Typical problems of mega-cities

AGS contributionexamples: Tokyo and Guangzhou (China)

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Typical problems of mega-cities

Pressure to Ecosystem deforestation, loss of ecosystem

Water, Material and Energy flow local and/or global environmental impact (pollution)

Human/cultural aspects poor quality of life, loss of traditional culture

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Developedcountries

Developingcountries

Time scale

Spatialscale

SOxNOx

Poor LivingEnv.

Hazardouscompoundsaccumulation

Globalwarming

Examples of mapping of environmental issues

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ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUES IN TOKYOAir pollution by automobile (Particulate matters, NOx)

Diesel vehicle control, Traffic Demand ManagementSolid waste management (dioxine, landfill site)

Reduce/reuse/recycleIncineration and heat recovery

Urban heat islandVegetation increase

CO2 emissionIntegration of energy saving technologiesRenewable energy use

No growth in population/ industrial activitiesHigh quality of life vs. Low environmental loading

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For problem solution:- Policy/technology integration necessary- Stakeholders participation essential - Cost-effectiveness to be clarified- Trade-off between local environment vs. Global environment

Contribution of AGS as THP (Tokyo Half Project)Collaborating platform to evaluate the effectiveness of policy/technology mix for CO2 emission reduction

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Geographic Information Systems

• Land use distributions

• Road and rail distributions

• Forests, water bodies etc.

Physical forcing in Air, Water and Ground• Weather and climate databases

• Groundwater inventories

• Meso-scale forcing conditions

Traffic and Transportation

• Origin destination databases

• Traffic flow databases

• Transportation networks

Life Cycle Inventories and Input Output Tables

• LCI’s for different technologies

• Pollutant intensity coefficients

Fuel Cells

Photovoltaics

Heat pumps

Intelligent Transpor-tation Systems

Advanced IGCC

Microturbines

Ground-coupled heat

pumpsAlternative vehicles

Plastic recyclingWaste

incineration

Land-use Information Aggregator(building floor area, projected ground area and total number in specified region)

Heat, Cooling and Power Demand Forecasting Models

Urban Canopy Heat Balance Models

Air, Water and Ground Pollutant Transport Simulations

Traffic Flow Forecasting Models

Collection and Distribution Transportation Optimization Models

Input Output Analysis Based Total CO2Emissions Model

Databases

Region-defining ModelsTechnology Process Simulations

District Heating Superstructure

Distributed and Centralized Power

Generation Mix

TransportationAlternatives

Heat Island Mitigation

Effects

Waste Disposal

System Model

Integrated subsystem modelsD

istr

ibut

ed M

odel

s

Tokyo Half Project

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Power plantModel

Photovoltaiccell model

AutomobileModel

GIS forTokyo

GIS for City X

Heat recoveryModel

I/O Model

Model improvementNew technology

development

DOME

Co-GenerationModel

CollaboratingPlatform

WEB

Modules

Modules

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System Connection Utility Best Mix Model

Power Generation

Roof AreaAssessment

CO2Criteria

I-O AnalysisPV cell LCA

IrradianceProfiler

TotalFloorArea

Region

Gnd Area Database

Bldg TypesUsed

Floor Area Database

ArrayInstallationConditions

SolarIrradiation conditions

ProductionLevel

Roof AlbedoPV CellCatalog

GIS dataaggregator

TotalGround

Area

Spacefactor

Irradiation (kWh m-2 h-1 )

Usable RoofArea (m2)

Total PVPower

(kWh hr-1)

PV cellLCA

Cell Efficiency

Materialsused

PV powercalculation

Roof Areacalculation

Utility BestMix Model

IO AnalysisModule

Group D

Group E

Group CGroup B

Group A

Total CO2reduction

(ton C yr-1)

Total CO2emissions(ton C yr-1)

IrradiationProfiler

Information Flows

Example of Photovoltaic Cell (PV)

9power generation best mix results

b) limited installation of aSi PV cells

c) full installation of aSi PV cells

d) limited installation of pSi PV cells

e) full installation of pSi PV cells

Base case

Reductionof fossil fuel use

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Guangzhou, ChinaCity area: 7,400 square km, Population: 10 million

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Rapid growth in population/ Increased industrial activitiesRise of quality of life vs. Reasonable environmental loading

Annual growth rate in 1999, GuangzhouGDP 13.3%per capita GDP 11.7%urban construction investment 24.9%power supply 8.5%urban road area 8.0%

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AGS Guangzhou ProjectCollaboration with city government

Outreach of fundamental AGS researchSolution of actual problemsFeedback to fundamental research

Identification of key-issues Transportation planning -- MITHousing in village in city -- ETHWater management -- UT

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GLOBALIZATIONREGIONAL COMPETITION

WTO

NEED FOR A CLEAR REGULATORY ENVIRONMENT

NEED FOR EXPANDED SOURCES OF FUNDING

NEED FOR STREAMLINEDMODERN PROCESSES

NEED FOR INTEGRATEDRESEARCH ANDINFORMATION SYSTEMS

NEED FOR DEFINEDRESPONSIBILITIES &JURISDICTIONS

NEED TO LOWERADMINISTRATIVE &ENFORCEMENT COSTS

NEED FOR BETTER INTERNAL TRANSFER OF KNOWLEDGE

NEED FOR QUALITY INFRASTRUCTURE &MASS TRANSIT

NEED TO CONTROL FLEET GROWTHAND CHARACTERISTICS

NEED TO REDUCEENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT

NEED TO IMPROVEMOBILITY OPTIONS

NEED TO MANAGE DEMAND FOR LIMITEDRESOURCES

NEED TO INTEGRATELAND-USE PLANNING &TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS

EXTERNAL DRIVERS INTERNAL DRIVERS

CONSOLIDATION REORGANIZATION DEFINED RESPONSIBILITIES

COORDINATION STREAMLINING COLLABORATION

INSTITUTIONAL DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY

GUNAGZHOUTRANSPORT TRANSIT & LAND-USEAGENCIES

GLOBAL DRIVERS

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Zhu village -village in a mega-city-Preservation of historical culture and communityImprovement of living environment

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Water resources management in Panyu districtPanyu: future development area of GuangzhouPopulation projection of Panyu area

current: 1.63 million2030: 3.4 million2050: 4.15 million

Water quantity and quality

Pearl River

Existing area

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Strategy of mega-city management

Common issues --> common solutionEx. Energy saving technologyApplication of new technology/policy

Local issues --> country/region-dependent solutionEx. Social/economic issueCommon approach/ Modified approach effective