Sustainability Considerations of Infrastructural Changes to Material

Flows from Bio-Sourcing

Earl R. Beaver

Institute for Sustainability

October 5, 2004

Two important conclusions:

Resulting Concentrations

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

pp

mv

Preindustrial CO2 Concentration

280 ppmv

2x Preindustrial CO2 Concentration 550 ppmv

2) Short Term Emissions Limits Have LittleEffect on Resulting CO2 Concentration

-

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

Pg

C/y

r

IS92aAnnex I, stabilization

IPCC & Kyoto Emissions

1) Development is likely to drive carbon emissions monotonically upward.

Coal/Oil/Gas

Geothermal

Sources: PCAST data < 1990, Shell futures scenario.

Note: All fossil is combined, as are wind and solar electricity in the term intermittents.

SURPRISE!Intermittents

Solar/PVWind

Nuclear

Hydro

80%

1%

29%

10%7%

20%

Biomass

%

En e

rgy

Con

trib

ution

Year

EJ/year

Source: NREL

Two Routes to Products

PetrochemicalIndustry

Agriculture& Forestry

ConsumerProducts

BuildingBlocks

Engineering Processing

Manufacturing

Chemistry AgronomyBiotech

Recycling

Agricultural Advance:Person-hours to harvest 1 acre wheat...

0.1

1

10

100

1850 1900 1950 2000

Hours

Source: Mindshift, P. Pritchett.

ModifiedTechnology

TraditionalTechnology

Bio-processes

NovelMolecules

CURRENT PRODUCTS NEW PRODUCTS

Waste &By-products

Existing Crop Parts

DedicatedCrops

ModifiedGenetics

Processing systems

Demand for Consumables

PLANT

INPUT

Year2020

Technologyfront today

Technology progress is a “front” including both chemistry and biotechnology...

Petrochemicals

Finite

Breakdown tosimple molecules

Transport

Synthesize morecomplex molecules

Manufacture

Renewables

Bio-basedSustainable

Extract and modify materials

Manufacture

Consumer goods

Transport ?

Opportunitiesfor low cost and/orhigh performance

Opportunitiesfor existing ormodified lowcost inputs

Developing/evolvingbio-based system

Specifically evolvedhydrocarbon system

Consumer goods

Transport

Low costdriven

USDOE Vision of Biomass Flows

http://www.eere.energy.gov/biomass/

Feed

Food Use Wet Milling

76%

15%3%

Seed2%

Oil

Germremoved

Ground

EthylAlcohol

FloursGritsBran

Tortillas, chips

Alkaline cooked

Acid steep then ground and separated.Germ removed

GlutenStarch

Syrups

Foods & Industrial uses

fermented

SOURCE: USDA, Corn Refiners Association, NCGA

7%

Direct Consumption(sweet corn, etc)

1%DryMill

3%

North American Corn Utilization

Ethanol

HFCS

Food & Industrial

Feed for livestock

Export (grain)

SOURCE: FAPRI, NCGA, USDA

Export (food)

Where does a field of corn go..

PoultrySwineCattle

Seed

GRAIN

RESIDUEStays in

the field

On each acre,~2,800 lbs dry matter is left in the field.

What’s in a field of soybeans...

Protein38%

Carbohydrate30%

Oil19%

Other13%

Typical composition

Typical Domestic Use

EdibleOil

32%

Food8%

Feed60%

Export accounts foraround 35% production

SOYBEANS

RESIDUE

Stays inthe field

Technology & Commercial Needs

Plant Science

Unit costsYieldConsistencyInfrastructureDesigner plants

EconomicsSeparationsConversionBio-catalystsInfrastructure

EconomicsFunctionalityPerformanceNovel uses

Price/value PerformancePerception

Utilization(Demand)

Utilization(Materials)

ProcessingProduction

GenomicsEnzymesMetabolismComposition

Next generation products will require matching technology with customer needs...

MappingSequencingExpression

Bioinformatics

TRAITS

GENES

ProteinEngineering

MolecularBreeding Designer

CropsGrown

Germplasm Base

Structural &Functional Genomics

FutureConsumerNeeds

BreedingTransgenics

HarvestHandling

SeparationsProcessing

MaterialsManufacture

Computer & InformationalSciences

Agronomic traitsimpact production

Market-orientatedcommodities

RENEWABLE RESOURCESMUST BE PLANNED & INTEGRATED

Consumer demand:quantity & quality

Basic biotechnologyGene screensGenomics

System for sustainable, renewable resources has complex interactions...

Industrial traitsimpact raw

material quality

Crosscutting Issues

• Separations• Chemical Synthesis• Fresh water - use, reuse and release• Energy consumption• Resource consumption• Modeling of processes - design &

operation• Sustainable Development

Maturity of Separations ProcessesU

se

Technical Sophisitication

Adapted from George Keller, 1987

Invention Patent Activity Wanes

First Use

100 Years

Dilute Solutions

Affinity Separations

Filtration

Liquid Membranes

Distillation

Membranes: Gas

Membranes: Liquid

Adsorption: GasAdsorption: Liquid

Leaching

ExtractionAzeotropic Distillation

Solution Crystallization

Ion Exchange

Centrifugation

Melt CrystallizationFroth Flotation

Decantation

Maturity of Separations ProcessesU

se

Technical Sophistication

Adapted from George Keller, 1987

Invention Patent Activity WanesFirst Use

100 Years

Dilute Solutions

Affinity Separations

Filtration

Liquid Membranes

Distillation

Membranes: Gas

Membranes: Liquid

Adsorption: GasAdsorption: Liquid

Leaching

ExtractionAzeotropic Distillation

Solution Crystallization

Ion Exchange

Centrifugation

Melt CrystallizationFroth Flotation

Decantation

Simulated Moving Bed Chromatography

Research Areas for Extraction

• Physical properties: emulsion, Marangoni & coalescence

• Equilibrium models: electrodynamic, diluent & quantum mechanical effects

• Improve science of “rag layers”

• Predict effects of surfactants and contaminants

• Develop large-scale homogeneous extraction models

• Develop selective solvents

Water Separations

• Water separations are everywhere

• Water separations are likely to be more prevalent in the future

• Need methods to make rapid and accurate flowsheet predictions

• Need to make nondistillation separations as predictable as distillation

Source: David Short - DuPont

Dilute Solutions Research Needs

• New separations materials– Immobilization of separations agents– Synthesis of highly selective agents– Robust catalysts– Switchable ligands

• Hybrid systems – Complexation filtration– Magnetic filtration– Field-induced filtration– Reactive extraction & reactive membranes

Chemical Synthesis Needs

•New synthetic techniques

•New catalysts & reaction systems

•Stereospecificity - Chirality

•Alternative raw materials

•Synthesis tools for molecular control

•Molecular architectures in alternative reaction media

Societal Climate Cost Considerations

• Agricultural• Human Health• Food Production• Drought• Flood• Population Displacement• Diminished Food Security• Fresh Water Availability• Infectious Diseases• Desertification• Infrastructure Stress• Loss of biodiversity• Sea Level Rise

• Heat Stress• Coral • Mangrove• Coastal• Tundra• Wetlands• Forests• Glacial retreat• Threats to Fisheries• Soil Salinization• Coastal Erosion• Tropical Cyclones• Thermal Water Pollution

Acknowledgements

• Gene Petersen & Helena Chum – NREL

• http://www.eere.energy.gov/biomass/

• ORNL Science & Technology Highlights, No. 2, 2004, p.9.

• Matthew Retoske (formerly of BRIDGES to Sustainability)