sustainabilities and complexities - uab barcelona · the china national highway 110 traffic jam...
TRANSCRIPT
Sustainabilities and complexities. Learning, futures and visions in a warming world.
J. David Tàbara
ICTA–UAB
& Global Climate Forum
04.11.2015
Today’s talk…
I. On complexities and sustainabilities
II. Sustainability learning in an open knowledge society
III. Visions and futures making in a warming world
Final remarks & discussion
I. On complexities and sustainabilities
“The moderns do not know where
they live. They have no world to
reside in. They are homeless”.
Bruno Latour
But we all live (temporarily) here…
Biosphere range: aprox. +11km above and 10Km below sea level…
Madagascar Oct 2014 Masoala wholly lemur, just discovered in 2008
but not time left even to describe it…
The ‘unexpected’ unwanted cumulative
effects of individual social action
In ‘modern’ societies we’re not doing much better…: the largest traffic jam in the world
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China_National_Highway_110_traffic_jam
The China National Highway 110 Traffic Jam began to form on August 14, 2010, mostly on China National Highway 110 (G110) and Beijing–Tibet expressway (G6), in Hebei and Inner Mongolia. The traffic jam slowed down thousands of vehicles for more than 100 kilometres and lasted for more than ten days. Many drivers were able to move their vehicles only 1 km (0.6 mi) per day, and some drivers reported being stuck in the traffic jam for five days.
From J. Rockstrom: http://constructionclimatechallenge.com/_wp/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/Rockstr%C3%B6m-Volvo-24e-juni.pdf
Notice that education and learning in missing in socio-economic trends
Tipping points in global
ecosystems ahead…
From: Schellnhuber et al. Under review Tipping points related to 2º C-Guardrail, cited in J. Rockstrom, presentation given at the 2nd Transformation Conference, Stockholm Oct 2015.
From J. Rockström, June 2015, Available here
But what about tipping points in social systems?,
e.g. in social learning
From Limits to Growth to Planetary Boundaries
Steffen W., et al. 2015. Planetary boundaries: Guiding human development on a changing planet. Science , 347: 6223 DOI: 10.1126/science.1259855
How to deal with unsustainability challenges?
Multiple perspectives are needed…
Tàbara, J. D. & S. Giner. 2004. 'Diversity, civic virtues and ecological austerity' . International Review of Sociology, 14(2):262-283.
But it’s ot only a scientific challenge... “Llibertat, igualtat, fraternitat i… sostenibilitat!”
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B “Sustainable development?”
Mary Midgley
Midgley, M. 2011. ‘Development Doubts’. In: Jaeger, C. C. Tàbara, J. D. and Jaeger J. 2011. European Research on Sustainable Development. Transformative science approaches for Sustainability. Heidelberg, Germany: Springer & EC.
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Learning by doing, doing by learning
II. Sustainability learning in an open knowledge society
A tipping point?
Tàbara, J. D. 2014. Global intelligence, fairness and the social sciences in an unequally changing world. Global Dialogue, Newsletter for the International Sociological Association. March. http://isa-global-dialogue.net/lobal-intelligence-fairness-and-the-social-sciences-in-an-unequally-changing-world/ Tàbara, J. D. 2013. ‘Social learning to cope with global environmental change and unsustainability’. In: Stewart Lockie, David A. Sonnenfeld, and Dana R. Fisher (eds). The Routledge International Handbook of Social and Environmental Change. London and New York: Routledge, pages 253-265.
To learn or not to Learn? This is the question
How do you learn to ride a
bicycle? Definitely NOT by just looking
at a Power Point Presentation!
(including this one…)
You must try yourself and fall several times…
Sustainability learning. Ok, but…
Sustainability Learning (Tàbara 2003, 2005, 2007, 2012)
THE SEIC model:
S: Structure and rule systems.
E: Energy and natural resource systems.
I : Information and knowledge systems.
C: Socioenviromental systemic change.
zi: size of the socio-ecological systems / relative thresholds
e.g. using SEIC:
Sust S = f (E, I, C) ; zi < Zi
www.gsdp.eu/about/global-systems-science/ www.gsdp.eu/workshops;
Global System Science: “Developing systems of global interconnected
solutions to global problems”
The limits of ‘laboratory
science’ to tackle global unsustainability
problems...
And of one-single rationality, one-single equilibrium economics ….
Jaeger, C. C., Hasselmann, K., Leipold, G., Mangalagiu, D., and Tàbara, J. D. 2012. Reframing the Problem of Climate Change: From Zero Sum Game to Win-Win Solutions. Oxon, UK, New York, USA & Canada: Earthscan and Taylor and Francis.
Tàbara, J. D., Mangalagiu, D., Kupers, R., Jaeger, C. C., Mandel, A., Paroussos, L. 2013. Transformative targets in sustainability policy-making: the case of the 30% EU mitigation goal. Journal of Environmental Planning and Management, 56(8): 1180 -1191. doi:/10.1080/09640568.2012.716365
On the limits of our Human Information and Knowledge Systems (‘HIKS’) to represent social-ecological complexity
• HIKS are major driving forces of global environmental change. • Reductionist HIKS are indeed very a dangerous source of misinterpretation of
reality… (e.g., by reducing all values to exchange values and forgetting the need to value of the quality of stocks)
• We don’t really know much its nature nor how to manage them… (some people don’t even realise they exist!).
• HIKS are the basis of and affect SOCIAL REFLECTIVITY (the basis of social learning) both enhancing and constraining it.
• Different worldviews about the nature, purposes, and dynamics of HIKS affect the nature, intended transformations and dynamics of Social-Ecological Systems (SES) – as well as our capacity to learn from / adapt to them.
• Challenge: to democratise and govern openly HIKS….
Human Information and Knowledge Systems (HIKS)
Democratising HIKS?
Complementary
community currencies in South
Africa
Two worldviews about HIKS… and their relationships with SES
VISION I:
A closed knowledge system …
But in nowhere! (not
grounded in any particular SES)
Goals of VISION I:
Filling gaps (‘in the air…’), to know ‘more’…
Two worldviews about HIKS… and their relationships with SES
Open & coupled knowledge systems needed!
VISION II:
• Diverse information and knowledge practices embedded in particular SES
• Multiple and diverse learning processes and languages are required to interpret and deal with the reality in robust ways
III. Visions and futures making in a warming world
A global vision already approved: The Sustainable Development Goals
25 September 2015 – The 193-Member United Nations General Assembly formally adopted the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, along with a set of bold new Global Goals, as a universal, integrated and transformative vision for a better world.
But these trajectories are dependent on decision points (bifurcations). Some of them may have irreversible effects of future trajectories.
One possible
vision
STAGE 1: Scoping
To provide a clear overview of the PAF in the system of reference, including appraisal objectives and targeted outcomes.
STAGE 2: Visioning
Generating, defining and refining visions and potential strategies to explore in the next stage, including options for implementation, time paths, and actors.
STAGE 3: Experimenting
Evaluating and exploring the implementation of strategies and contrasting and/or ranking impacts of these strategies in the system of reference.
STAGE 4: Evaluating
Evaluating the previous appraisal steps and drawing conclusions or lessons to be used in the next iteration
Weaver, P. M., A. Haxeltine, M. van de Kerkhof and J. D. Tàbara 2006. ‘Mainstreaming action on climate change through participatory appraisal’. International Journal on Innovation and Sustainable Development. 1(3):238-259.
A
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Where do we want to be?
See Rio + 20 final document:
http://www.uncsd2012.org/content/documents/727The%20Future%20We%20Want%2019%20June%201230pm.pdf
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Changing means and goals Learning by doing, doing by learning (and failing).
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Multiple pathways (trajectories) to achieve the vision are possible
The VISION RD4SD project ( 2011-2013):
Developing a Vision on Research, Development and Innovation to
Support Sustainable Development
31 partners (21 science funders from 18 European countries + 10 research institutions, independent scholars & consultants
www.visionRD4SD.eu
‘What kind of science for what kind of world’?
The IMPRESSIONS project: Impacts and Risks from High-End Scenarios:
Strategies for Innovative Solutions
To develop multi-scale, integrated climate and socio-economic scenarios, including high-end RCPs and more extreme SSPs, embedding potential climate and socio-economic tipping points www.impressions-project.eu
High-End climate change (>2º) requires transformative solutions, as conventional strategies and solutions are not enough. These processes and solution must be based on a VISION and new tools and methods which integrate complexity so as to support transformation (specially in modelling)
From SRES scenarios to RCP and SSP • The new Representative Concentration
Pathways (RCP) of the Iast IPCC report (AR5) refer the level of radiative forcings (global energy imbalances), measured in watts per square metre, by the year 2100 and replaces the former SRES scenarios category.
• Socio-economic Pathways (SSP) are plausible alternative trends in the evolution of society and ecosystems over a century in the absence of climate change or climate change policies
SSP Scenario
Challenges SRES equivalent
SSP1 Low for adaptation Low for mitigation
B1, A1T.
SSP3 High for adaptation High for mitigation
A2
SSP4 High for adaptation Low for mitigation
No analogue
SSP5 High for mitigation Low for adaptation
A1FI
O’Neil et al. 2014
Today 2100
VISION System Sustainability
Hypothetical Adaptation Pathway
Conventional mitigation plus conventional adaptation
Transformative solutions
WHY DO WE NEED A VISION?
Identifying main driving forces by identifying main uncertainties & possible impacts
First characterisation
of scenarios based on two
key vectors
Construction of the
narrative
Mapping events in time… and developing the narratives
Final remarks:
Turning fear into hope …
and responsibility
Sustainability as a moral learning
In: Charlesworth M., and Chukwumerije O. 2010. Policy responses to rapid climate change. An
epistemological critique of dominant approaches. Global Environmental Change, 20:121-129.