sustainabile development of iron and steel industry...
TRANSCRIPT
Prof. Volodymyr SHATOKHANational Metallurgical Academy of Ukraine
Lecture at Dalian University of TechnologyApril 6, 2016
Sustainabile development of iron and steel industry towards reaching the climate
change mitigation goals
Content International climate agenda Current state and climate change mitigation goals for iron
and steel industry Study of possibilities for reaching global climate goals in iron
and steel industry Conclusions
2
International climate agenda“Concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere continue to rise. So too does the temperature of oceans and land. Climate change is accelerating at an alarming rate. The window of opportunity for limiting global temperature rise to well below 2 degrees Celsius – the threshold agreed by world governments in Paris in December last year – is narrow and rapidly shrinking.”
UN Secretary General, Ban Ki-moon New York, 23 March 2016
3
Goal of our study
4
Governments worldwide have agreed that international climate policy should aim to limit the increase of global mean temperature to less than 2oC with respect to pre-industrial levels.
Our target - to analyse the feasibility of climate targets for iron and steel industry
INTENDED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTIONS
5
To reduce global greenhouse gas emissions enough to keep global temperature rise to 2°C our countries have pledged as
follows: China (23.75% of global CO2 emissions): a peak in carbon dioxide emissions by 2030, with best efforts to
peak earlier; to source 20% of its energy from low-carbon sources by 2030; to cut emissions per unit of GDP by 60-65% of 2005 levels by
2030, potentially putting it on course to peak by 2027 Ukraine (0.77% of global CO2 emissions): Emissions will be limited to 60% of 1990 levels in 2030
Carbon dioxide is unavoidable product of the processes of iron ore reduction if fossil fuels are used as reductant and energy carrier
C+O2=CO2C+1/2O2=COFe3O4+CO=3FeO+CO2FeO+CO=Fe+CO2
Role of iron and steel industry in carbon dioxide emissions
Source: OECD/IEA 2014
Share of iron and steel industry in global anthropogenic CO2emissions:• 6.7% - worldwide • 12% - in China
6
2DS Scenario of International Energy Agency
7
The 2°C Scenario (2DS) describes an energy system consistent with an emissions trajectory that would give an 80% chance of limiting average global temperature increase to 2°C. It sets the target of cutting energy-related CO2
emissions by more than half in 2050 (compared with 2009) and ensuring that they continue to fall thereafter. Importantly, the 2DS acknowledges that transforming the energy sector is vital, but not the sole solution: the goal can only be achieved provided that CO2 and GHG emissions in non-energy sectors are also reduced.
Sector-specific direct CO2 emissions reduction by 2DS scenario of International Energy Agency
8
Steel production statistics
9
Historic data and forecast for steel production and related CO2 emissions
Emissions have to be decoupled from the production growth
?
10
Research Methodology
11
Feasibility of carbon cutting targets is estimated by buldingseveral scenarios based on the assumptions related to:Timing, rate and extent of the best available and innovative
technologies commercializationCarbon cutting potential of the technologies concerned
Steel production routes
12
Emissions intensity, natural gas coaltСО2 /t steel: 1,8-2,20 1,4 3,50 0,70Market share,% 74 3,0 0,8 22,2СО2 emissions share, % 87,9 2,3 1,5 8,3
Global indicators (2014)
Options to cut CO2 emissions in steel industry
13
1. To optimise energy consumption by increasing the market share of secondary steel production (constrained by availability of scrap and requirements to product quality)
2. To improve existing iron and steelmaking technologies through global deployment of Best Available Technologies
3. To commercialize innovative ironmaking technologies4. To develop and commercialize breakthrough technologies with
nearly zero carbon footprint
5. To deploy Carbon Capture and Storage/Utilisation technologies
Deg
ree
of “
radi
caln
ess”
and
Option 1: to increase recycling of scrap by EAF method
14
In our model the EAF share follows the S-curve, reaching this target as envisaged by the IEA in 2025 and arriving at 40% in 2050
Option 2: wider deployment of best available technologies
15
Almost 95% of CO2 emissions in steel industry relate to fossil fuels During 1960-2014 energy intensity of steel industry was reduced by 60% Many producers operate on the edge of thermodynamic limit Further reduction is limited within 14-19% - mostly through modernization of
ironmaking and steelmaking in India, Russia and Ukraine
HIsmelt: pilot plant 0.8 Mt of hot metal per year operated in Kwinana, Australia. In 2013 relocated to China and upgraded in collaboration between Rio Tinto and Shougang Corporation.
HIsarna: analogue to HIsmelt. Pilot plant 8 t of hot metal per hour operates in The Netherlands, being developed in collaboration between Tata Steel and Rio Tinto with involvement of other European producers of steel and engineering companies
HIsmelt and HIsarna use directly coal and iron ore; therefore, cokemaking and iron ore agglomeration plants can be phased out. CO2 cutting potential is estimated 20% down compared to blast furnace ironmaking
Commercialisation is expected after 2020
Option 3: Innovative ironmaking technologies(Smelting Reduction Vessel, SRV)
16 Hisarna SRV
Option 3: Innovative ironmaking technologiesTop Gas Recycling Blast Furnace
17
Trials on experimental blast furnace (Lulea, Sweden) conducted by EU ULCOS consortium and within COURSE50 (Japanese governmental program)
Commercialisation was planned in 2015 by ArcelorMittal Florange (France), but was cancelled owing to financial issues
Optimistic estimation – 15% CO2 emissions down compared to blast furnace
Option 3: Innovative ironmaking technologiesFinex
18
Developed by South Korean company POSCO in collaboration with Siemens VAI based on prototype (Corex) commercialised yet in 1989 in SAR
Industrial plant producing 2 Mt of hot metal per year operates in Pohang
Optimistic estimation – 10% CO2 emissions down compared to blast furnace
Our scenarios
19
BAT only scenario: BAT widely deployed providing for 14% of CO2 emissions reductions
worldwide; No commercialisation of innovative ironmaking; Steel production structure doesn’t change: the share of secondary steel
production through the EAF method is limited at current 25.8% level; limited commercialisation of FINEX - 1% of primary iron production market.
BAT+scrap scenario: in addition to BAT only greater availability of scrap results in 40% of steel production through EAF in 2050.
BAT+Scrap+InnoM scenario in addition to BAT+scrap, a moderate level of innovative ironmaking technologies commercialisation: 65% of liquid iron still produced in conventional blast furnaces, 5% - in blast furnaces modified for top gas recycling, 20% in HIsarna and 10% in FINEX.
BAT+Scrap+InnoR – a radical scenario where all remaining blast furnaces are modified to produce just 5% of total liquid iron with top gas recycling, 85% of liquid iron is produced in HIsarna and 10% in FINEX.
Our scenarios
20
Route Market share
2014 2050
BAT only BAT+Scrap BAT+Scrap+InnoM BAT+Scrap+InnoR
Ironmaking technologies
BF 100 99 99 65 0 TGR BF 0 0 0 5 5 HIsarna 0 0 0 20 85 Finex ≈0 1 1 10 10
Share of EAF in crude steel production
25.8 25.8 40 40 40
Modeling methodology
21
All technologies are commercialized following the S-curve Market penetration reaches a saturation level for all technologies
by 2050 Year of rapid penetration growth: For BAT - 2025 For innovative ironmaking technologies - 2030
Results and discussion
22
Eco-innovation challenge
How the eco-innovation challenge can be addressed: carbon capture and storage/utilization
23
CCS/CCU technologies development faces several challenges:
Cost barriers (investment, energy, operating)
Low market demand for CO2
public concerns over the CCS safety
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2020 2030 2040 2050
Shar
e o
f CO
2ca
ptu
rin
g, %
Years
BAT only
BAT+scrap
BAT+scrap+InnoM
BAT+scrap+InnoR
IEA target -40% of CO2 produced shall be processed using
CCS/CCU in 2050
How the eco-innovation challenge can be addressed: breakthrough technologies (Option 4)
24
Electrolysis ULCOLYSIS (EU) and MOE, Molten Oxyde Electrolysis (USA) processes:
4Fe3++6O2-→4Fe+3O2 Still on fundamental development phase needed to overcome such challenges
as stability of anode material and iron re-oxidation. Sensible only if the electricity source is fully decarbonised
Hydrogen ironmaking (FexOy + yH2 = xFe+yH2O) Flash Ironmaking Process (USA), COURSE50 (Japan, government funded
programme) – both on the fundamental phase High cost of hydrogen is the major barrier Other barriers such as transportation and storage of hydrogen in large
quantities shall also be noted Enhanced materials efficiency Electricity decarbonisation
Conclusions
26
1. Transition to a low carbon economy in line with the objectives established by the IEA requires rapid and radical modernisation of iron and steel industry.
2. Deployment of the best available technologies is indispensable though not sufficient for cutting CO2 emissions to the extent required by climate change mitigation targets.
3. Increased share of secondary steel produced via the EAF method using gradually decarbonised electricity is a prerequisite for substantial cutting the CO2 emissions. However, problems of scrap availability and quality of secondary steel product shall be addressed.
4. Rapid and wide commercialisation of currently developed innovative technologies after 2020 allows for reaching emissions level consistent with the IEA targets up to 2030-2040, depending upon market penetration. However, even in the most radical modernisation scenario new impulse is needed to align the emissions with sustainable targets. Hydrogen based ironmaking, enhanced material efficiency, greater share of secondary steel production, CCS/CCU technologies can play the role of such an impulse.
5. Delayed and limited mitigation actions will result in much greater amounts of CO2emitted to the atmosphere with unavoidable impact on climate.
27
Thank you very much for your attention!