Wednesday, January 14, 2015 For Private Circulation Only

MAJOR COMMODITIES

Commodity Expiry High Low Close Change

Commodity Expiry High Low Close ($) Change

Gold 5-Feb 27262 27005 27055 25

Gold (Oz) Feb 1244.50 1227.40 1234.40 1.60

Silver 5-Mar 38290 37240 38158 1187

Silver (Oz) Mar 17.22 16.57 17.16 0.59

Crude Oil 16-Jan 2870 2757 2826 -64

Crude Oil Feb 46.79 44.20 45.89 -0.18

Natural Gas 27-Jan 182.30 175.00 180.70 6.00

Natural Gas Feb 2.97 2.80 2.94 0.15

Copper 27-Feb 375.60 364.20 364.95 -12.15

Copper 3M 6034.00 5774.75 5774.75 -257.00

Nickel 30-Jan 936.70 903.60 905.10 -34.10

Nickel 3M 15160.00 14465.00 14499.00 -645.00

Aluminium 30-Jan 112.20 109.80 110.85 -1.15

Aluminium 3M 1816.50 1772.00 1785.00 -29.00

Lead 30-Jan 115.25 112.40 112.75 -2.65

Lead 3M 1865.00 1814.00 1817.00 -44.00

Zinc 30-Jan 132.60 128.80 129.00 -3.35

Zinc 3M 2145.00 2074.75 2074.75 -65.50

News & Development

The European Central Bank should decide sooner rather than later whether to start large-scale purchases of government bonds,

ECB Governing Council member Ewald Nowotny said in a newspaper interview published on Tuesday.

The British Retail Consortium said year-on-year retail spending was 1.0 percent higher this December than a year ago, the weakest

December growth since 2008 and a sharp contrast with November's 2.2 percent jump.

China's December trade data beat expectations as demand from a stronger U.S. economy helped offset weakness in Europe and

Japan, while Chinese bargain-shopping in commodities markets put a floor under sliding imports. Exports in December rose 9.7

percent from a year earlier in dollar-denominated terms, data from the General Administration of Customs showed on Tuesday,

handily beating a Reuters poll by nearly three full percentage points. Imports dropped by only 2.4 percent, where analysts'

consensus was for a far steeper decline of 7.4 percent.

(Source: Reuters)

Page 2

Commodity Daily

Gold

Gold was little changed on Tuesday, paring gains after hitting technical resistance at a 12-week high, moving in choppy trading as the dollar returned near its session highs and as crude oil prices pared steep losses. Earlier, investors sought refuge from turbulence in stock and currency markets after crude oil prices slid to a near six-year low. The dollar gained, still benefiting from more upbeat U.S. economic prospects compared with the rest of the world that should keep the Federal Reserve on track to raise interest rates this year.

Outlook

We expect gold prices are likely to trade on positive note on the back of Greece concerns.

Technical Outlook

Gold Strategy S2 S1 Close R1 R2

Feb Buy @ S1 26780 26950 27055 27100 27250

*Investors can use S2/R2 as Stop Loss/Target depending upon the strategy advised

Silver Silver rose 4 percent to a one-month high on potential supply concerns. ECB Governing Council member Ewald Nowotny said in a newspaper interview that the ECB should decide sooner rather than later whether to start large-scale purchases of government bonds. Investors expect the ECB to launch its own quantitative easing at next week's meeting, as data out of the euro zone has become bleaker and bleaker by the day.

Outlook We expect Silver prices are likely to trade on positive note on the back of Greece concerns.

Technical Outlook

Silver Strategy S2 S1 Close R1 R2

Mar Buy @ S1 37300 37700 38158 38400 38900

*Investors can use S2/R2 as Stop Loss/Target depending upon the strategy advised

Page 3

Commodity Daily

Crude Oil Oil tumbled 5 percent to near six-year lows before recovering ground on Tuesday, and Brent briefly traded at par to U.S. crude for the first time in three months as some traders moved to take advantage of ample storage space in the United States. Traders were searching to store the glut of oil, which has knocked prices down 60 percent in the last six months. So far this week, Brent has lost 7 percent and U.S. crude 5 percent. Oil tumbled earlier after big OPEC producer United Arab Emirates defended the group's decision not to cut output to boost prices. Losses were pared by a flurry of short-covering toward the close, as players moved to cash in on profitable short positions, traders said. Traders said the benchmarks converged as limited storage on land for Brent forced traders to look for storage in the Cushing, Oklahoma, delivery point for U.S. crude. U.S. onshore storage tanks for crude are barely a third full, showing the highest vacancy rate since the government's Energy Information Administration began its bi-annual survey of tank farm capacity in 2010. Some said the convergence was not sustainable because the narrowed arbitrage attracted foreign imports. In the case of Brent, some the world's biggest traders booked supertankers to store at least 25 million barrels at sea in recent days in hopes of profiting later if prices recover.

Outlook

We expect crude oil prices likely to trade on negative note on the back of increasing supply and decreasing demand is likely to keep crude oil prices under pressure.

Technical Outlook

Crude Oil Strategy S2 S1 Close R1 R2

Jan Sell @ R1 2770 2800 2826 2850 2880

*Investors can use S2/R2 as Stop Loss/Target depending upon the strategy advised

Natural Gas U.S. natural gas futures gained over 5 percent on Tuesday, erasing a 5 percent loss on Monday, on forecasts for heightened demand due to cooler temperatures over the next two weeks. The latest weather models for the lower 48 U.S. states called for slightly colder but near-normal temperatures over the next two weeks, with an expected 462 heating degree days (HDD).

Outlook We expect Natural gas prices to trade on negative note on the back of slightly below normal temperature forecast over the next few days.

Technical Outlook

Nat Gas Strategy S2 S1 Close R1 R2

Jan Sell @ R1 174 177 180.7 182 186

*Investors can use S2/R2 as Stop Loss/Target depending upon the strategy advised

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Page 4

Commodity Daily

LME Inventories Copper Lead Zinc Aluminium Nickel

Current Stock 191325 215825 667700 4149300 416436

Change 3925 -4325 -3175 -7750 1704

% Change 2.09% -1.96% -0.47% -0.19% 0.41%

Base Metals Copper fell further below $6,000 on Tuesday to its weakest level in more than five years as oil price declines spurred selling by hedge funds in China, despite signs of physical demand for metal there. Worries about lacklustre growth in the global economy and the rout in oil hurt other metals on the London Metal Exchange too, with lead falling to a 30-month low while aluminium and zinc fell to their lowest in nearly eight and seven months respectively. As copper sank towards $6,000, traders had been eyeing two big put option trades, at that level and at $5,500, which they feared could accelerate the market's longest rout in years. China's December trade data beat expectations, as demand from a stronger U.S. economy helped offset weakness in Europe and Japan while Chinese bargain-shopping in commodities markets put a floor under sliding imports. Higher aluminium output from China was highlighted in trade data which showed exports of 540,000 tonnes of unwrought aluminium and aluminium products in December, up from November's 390,000.

Outlook We expect base metal prices to trade mostly on negative note on the back of fears of slowdown in China.

Technical Outlook

Jan/Feb Strategy S2 S1 Close R1 R2

Copper Sell @ R1 355 360 364.9 368 370

Nickel Sell @ R1 890 900 905.1 910 920

Alum Sell @ R1 109 110 110.8 111 112

Lead Sell @ R1 111 112 112.7 113.4 114.5

Zinc Sell @ R1 127 128 129.0 130 131

*Investors can use S2/R2 as Stop Loss/Target depending upon the strategy advised

Page 5

Commodity Daily

DATE TIME (IST) COUNTRY ECONOMIC DATA CONSENSUS PREVIOUS IMPACT

Wed, Jan 14 Tentative EUR European Court of Justice Ruling High

3:30pm EUR Industrial Production m/m 0.00% 0.10% Medium

7:00pm US Core Retail Sales m/m 0.10% 0.50% High

7:00pm US Retail Sales m/m 0.20% 0.70% High

7:00pm US Import Prices m/m -2.70% -1.50% Medium

8:30pm US Business Inventories m/m 0.20% 0.20% Medium

9:00pm US Crude Oil Inventories -3.1M Medium

For Further Assistance Contact: - 022-40934000

Ashish Shah Tejas Nikhar Mohit Agarwal AVP

ashish.shah@sushilfinance.com Sr. Research Analyst

tejas.nikhar@sushilfinance.com Research Analyst

mohit.agarwal@sushilfinance.com WE / OUR CLIENTS / OUR RELATIVES MAY HAVE PERSONAL TRADING / INVESTMENT INTEREST IN THE STOCKS MENTIONED HERE IN.

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