surviving & thriving in the north american printing industry
DESCRIPTION
This presentation of Richard Romano's keynote address from the Canadian Printing Industries Secor Council Forum on June 3 provides an overview of the current state of the North American printing industry. A combination of economic data and qualitative media and technology trends points out the challenges the industry faces, as well as the opportunities that can help printers survive and thrive as we head toward 2020.TRANSCRIPT
Surviving & Thriving in the North American
Printing Industry
CPISC 5th Annual Forum
June 3, 2011
Richard Romano, WhatTheyThink
William Caxton, Printer
1476—First printing press in England; printed first books in English
William Caxton, Entrepreneur
1450–1492—Merchant, businessman, and entrepreneur
Agenda
Where We’ve Been Where We Are Where We’re Going—and Where We Should
Be Going
The Rear View Mirror
Canadian Commercial Printing Shipments—1992–2010
$5,500
$7,500
$9,500
$11,500
$13,500
$15,500
Dec
199
2Ju
ne
1993
Dec
199
3Ju
ne
1994
Dec
199
4Ju
ne
1995
Dec
199
5Ju
ne
1996
Dec
199
6Ju
ne
1997
Dec
199
7Ju
ne
1998
Dec
199
8Ju
ne
1999
Dec
199
9Ju
ne
2000
Dec
200
0Ju
ne
2001
Dec
200
1Ju
ne
2002
Dec
200
2Ju
ne
2003
Dec
200
3Ju
ne
2004
Dec
200
4Ju
ne
2005
Dec
200
5Ju
ne
2006
Dec
200
6Ju
ne
2007
Dec
200
7Ju
ne2
008
Dec
2008
Jun
2009
Dec
200
9Ju
n20
10D
ec20
10
Original Data
Inflation-Adjusted C$
Original Data US$
Inflation-Adjusted US$
Wha
tTh
eyT
hin
k E
cono
mic
s a
nd
Re
sea
rch
Cen
ter
ana
lysi
s o
f S
tatis
tics
Ca
na
da d
ata
Canadian Commercial Printing Shipments—2006–2010 (C$)
Wha
tTh
eyT
hin
k E
cono
mic
s a
nd
Re
sea
rch
Cen
ter
ana
lysi
s o
f S
tatis
tics
Ca
na
da d
ata
$0.0
$2,000.0
$4,000.0
$6,000.0
$8,000.0
$10,000.0
$12,000.0
$14,000.0
$16,000.0
Jan 2
006
Mar
200
6
May
200
6
July
200
6
Sep 2
006
Nov 20
06
Jan 2
007
Mar
200
7
May
200
7
July
200
7
Sep 2
007
Nov 20
07
Jan 2
008
Mar
200
8
May
2008
July
2008
Sep 2
008
Nov 20
08
Jan20
09
Mar
2009
May
2009
Jul2
009
Sep 2
009
Nov 20
09
Dec 2
009
Mar
2010
May
2010
Jul2
010
Sep 2
010
Nov201
0
Jan20
11
Jan20
11
U.S. Commercial Printing Shipments—2006–2011 (US$)
Wha
tTh
eyT
hin
k E
cono
mic
s a
nd
Re
sea
rch
Cen
ter
ana
lysi
s o
f U
.S.
Cen
sus
Bu
reau
da
ta
$0.0
$2,000.0
$4,000.0
$6,000.0
$8,000.0
$10,000.0
$12,000.0
Jan 2
006
Mar
200
6
May
200
6
July
200
6
Sep 2
006
Nov 20
06
Jan 2
007
Mar
200
7
May
200
7
July
200
7
Sep 2
007
Nov 20
07
Jan 2
008
Mar
200
8
May
2008
July
2008
Sep 2
008
Nov 20
08
Jan20
09
Mar
2009
May
2009
Jul2
009
Sep 2
009
Nov 20
09
Jan20
10
Mar
2010
May
2010
Jul2
010
Sep20
10
Nov201
0
Jan20
11
Mar
2011
Canadian Commercial Printing Shipments Forecast to 2017
Wha
tTh
eyT
hin
k E
cono
mic
s a
nd
Re
sea
rch
Cen
ter
ana
lysi
s o
f S
tatis
tics
Ca
na
da d
ata
Forecast Model
Conservative Aggressive Mean
2011 $8.6 $8.0 $8.3
2012 $8.3 $6.8 $7.6
2013 $8.1 $5.5 $6.8
2014 $7.8 $4.1 $5.9
2015 $7.5 $2.5 $5.0
2016 $7.3 $0.8 $4.0
2017 $7.0 $0.0 $3.5
Forecast in Billions of Inflation-Adjusted $C
Canadian Commercial Printing Establishments—1999–2009
Sta
tistic
s C
an
ada
5,820
4,8434,4864,5474,647
5,0945,0945,2485,3925,4695,670
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Canadian Commercial Printing Establishments by Size
Sta
tistic
s C
an
ada
3,1
22
2,9
47
2,8
62
2,7
91
2,8
43
2,4
73
2,7
81
2,8
15
2,1
55
2,0
48
2,0
81
2,5
42
2,5
09
2,3
96
2,4
00
2,2
14
2,1
83
2,1
34
1,9
72
2,3
39
2,3
59
2,2
74
15
0
20
8
20
5
19
6
18
6
18
3
17
5
16
8
14
6
13
1
12
2
6 6
6 5
5
4
4
8 7
9
9
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
1–4 employees 5–99 employees
100–499 employees 500+ employees
The View from 20,000 Feet
Current U.S. Business Conditions, 03/11
Wha
tTh
eyT
hin
k E
cono
mic
s a
nd
Re
sea
rch
Cen
ter
surv
ey,
Ma
rch
20
11
Increased 6%+: 21%
Decreased 6%+: 27%
Top Services Increasing
Wha
tTh
eyT
hin
k E
cono
mic
s a
nd
Re
sea
rch
Cen
ter
surv
ey,
De
cem
be
r 2
01
0
Top Services Decreasing
Wha
tTh
eyT
hin
k E
cono
mic
s a
nd
Re
sea
rch
Cen
ter
surv
ey,
De
cem
be
r 2
01
0
Top Services Discontinued
Wha
tTh
eyT
hin
k E
cono
mic
s a
nd
Re
sea
rch
Cen
ter
surv
ey,
De
cem
be
r 2
01
0
Top Services To Be Added
Wha
tTh
eyT
hin
k E
cono
mic
s a
nd
Re
sea
rch
Cen
ter
surv
ey,
De
cem
be
r 2
01
0
Broadband Usage vs. Printing Shipments
Wha
tTh
eyT
hin
k E
cono
mic
s a
nd
Re
sea
rch
Cen
ter
ana
lysi
s
Regression analysis (r-squared = 72%):
for every additional hour of broadband time spent online at home, U.S. commercial printing volume declines by $2.00
In Just Five Years...
2005 No Twitter (launched 2006) Facebook obscure site (launched 2004) No iPhone (launched 2007) No iPad (launched 2010)
In Just Five Years...
2010 106+ million Twitter users 500+ million Facebook users 50+ million iPhones sold 10+ million iPads sold
Media Madness
Traditional Media Spending
Traditional media: Directories, magazines, newspapers, outdoor, radio and TV.
eM
ark
ete
r
Marketing Tactics—Increased Spending in 2011
eM
ark
ete
rStr
on
gM
ail
via
eM
ark
ete
r
What Marketing Was...
What Marketing Has Become...
Social Media
Social Media
Social media passed e-mail in time spent in 2007
According to Facebook: Farmville has 45+ million monthly active users Texas Hold’em Poker has 35+ million monthly
active users Lady Gaga—first person to attract more than
10 million Facebook fans and 10 million Twitter followers
The iPad
This changes everything The Internet as portable as
print, with as comfortable a form factor
All types of content can be accessed virtually anywhere, anytime
New tablet PCs (RIM PlayBook, Samsung Galaxy Tab, etc.) will explode the market
8 Ways the iPad Is Affecting Print
#1.E-books will grow
#2.News apps/“portable Web” will continue to erode newspaper sales/ circulation
#3.Magazine apps provide added value for readers
#4.App development siphons marketing and advertising money
8 Ways the iPad Is Affecting Print
#5.Highly portable device reduce demand for printed documents
#6.Migration of forms and other similar documents
#7.Young users continue to shift media consumption habits
#8.Replace other “stealth” uses of print
Technologies That Will Shape 2020
Faster mobile networks and mobile devices Geolocationary services Augmented reality Cloud computing Embedded chips in goods...and people More and more video [Something we don’t know about today]
Ultimately...
Print is one medium among many Communicators need to use multiple
channels to aggregate a sizable audience Most users are “over-communicated” and
need reminders in multiple media
The Road Ahead
The Road Ahead is Paved Not With Gold but SILVER
Skills Innovation Leadership Vision Enterprise Results
Skills
Skills must constantly change and adapt to the market Production, sales, marketing—yes, and
management Mechanical vs. marketing life of equipment Can employees change with your business?
Look to freelancers/outsourcees? Look at your niches
Specialize but be able to adapt
Innovation
“Creating” rather than “getting” business Develop unique solutions
Digital photo books? Mobile to print? Integration of print and non-print media
Marketing tie-ins with social/mobile media Consistency of brand across channels is
imperative
Leadership
Become an educational resource for customers Communications coach
Help them understand the new rules of communication Social media management? iPad/iPhone app development? What’s next?
Vision
Identify new opportunities Look at the market
Understand how people communicate See all a customer’s marketing/communication
needs Watch new technologies
Have the first new gadget on the block
Enterprise
Create alternate “side” business New initiative doesn’t have to be part of the old one Start as new venture Transition resources as needed Fold the old business if warranted
The industry used to be entrepreneurial Outsource proofing, then bring it in-house Outsource bindery, then bring it in-house
Like it or not, e-media are complements to print
Results
How do you define success? Help your customers become successful and
you will become successful Work with them to define metrics, timeline
Change from project-oriented to process-oriented
20/20 Foresight
Rule #1: There are no rules “Best practices” are fluid
We will be talking about something completely different in 2015
Standards are better R-E-D than dead: Relevance Experimentation Diligence
2020 Foresight
Print’s “Old Guard” had a dismal decade 2011–2020 will see continued upheaval
Traditional markets will shrink to specialties On-demand technologies will be the rule rather
than the exception Widening array of digital communications devices Robust media convenience at low cost
The New Printer Communicator
Is not scared of non-print media Is focused on non-advertising communications Runs shops that are smaller, technology-intensive,
highly productive Readily swaps out equipment, staff to adapt to
market changes Has an emphasis on freelancers, outsourcing, digital
equipment
The New Printer Communicator
Knows that opportunities are many and fleeting Recognizes that digital printing is no protection
against non-print digital media Ignores the process and the medium, and focuses
on the business and the opportunity Knows that printing is not a “race to the bottom” in
terms of offering lowest price Stays away from forecasters, sticks with the
marketplace Knows that their company is not the industry
The New Printer Communicator
Stays ahead of the clients; ignores the competitors Doesn’t let traditions and mismatch of capital with
marketplace limit the ability to implement change Focuses on client’s total communications ROI Forces management into the Gadget Age Stays curious
Questions? Answers?
Thank You Very Much!