survey major crop models system effects climate change

Survey of Major Crop Modelsin Thailand and Indonesia

to Develop Evaluation Systemfor Effects of Climate Change on Agriculture

Kei TANAKA, Takuji KIURA,Hiroe YOSHIDA (NARO, Japan),

Kiyoshi HONDA (Chubu Univ., Japan), and Budi I. Setiawan (IPB, Indonesia)

Contents

1. Research plan2. Evaluation system3. Survey of major crop models4. Visiting fields5. Collaboration network

2012/3/4 21st GRENE Workshop

Rice cultivation possibility prediction tool

Collecting crop models & params.（for Asian Monsoon Region）

AER2: Elucidation of the effects of climatic changes on major crops in Asian monsoon region ‐ Construction of an Evaluation System Using Meteorological Data and Crop Models ‐ (NARO)

Rice Cultivar A

Spinach Cassava ・・・

・・・

Developing cultivation simulators with flexibility which can exchange a crop model

Simulator execution↓

Climate change evaluation

Results of Climate Change ResearchMeteorological Data +Climate Change Coef.

• Clop models• Web applications• Framework for developing applications

Previous Results2011

2012

2013‐

2014

Improvement of the framework

VerificationCorrection

Implementing Web applications→ Deploying to DIAS

2015Improvement of simulators

Rain Fed Rice Field

Rice Cultivar B

2012/3/4 1st GRENE Workshop 3

Structure of Evaluation System for Effects of Climate Change on Agriculture


Agro‐ClimateDatabase

・ Air Temp.・ Solar Radiation・ Soil Moisture・・・・

MetBroker

Result Data・ Crop Yield・ Growth Periodwith Effects of Climate Change

Data Viewer App

Rice

Cassava

Maize

Sugarcane

Oil Palm

Rubber

Crop ModelsMeteorological Data

Climate Change Parameters

Field Data

Adaptation and Mitigation Strategies

AER1

CCR1, AER3

compare to validate

Agricultural Model Framework The functions provided by the framework

• Model Execution Engine• Data Structure• Weather Generator• GUI Components


Model Execution Engine

(Repetition calculation until conditions are satisfied)

Execution Data・Parameter

(Location・Cultivar)・Kind of met. data

Result Data・DVI, Dry weight(sequential data)

・Harvest date, Yield(date, value)

Result display, save

Chart Table

Map

Download(XML, CSV)

Model Calculation

Weather Generator

MetBroker

Normal year data

Estimation dataMeteorological

model

Weather database

Normal year XML file

User dataCSV file

MetBroker

• Unified access method to a weather databases

• about 20 weather databases, 100,000 weather stations

• Java class library to treat meteorological data


Driver Program

Meteorological data mediation software

Rice Model

Application Layer

Cassava Model

Corn Model

Sugarcane Model

Database Layer

Agro‐Climate DB

Data from Field

GD‐DR&TR

MetBroker

Mediation Layer

Meta data・・・

・・・

AER1

CCR1AER3

Cultivation Possibility Predicting System

(Data Viewer)


Thread N

Cultivation Possibility Predicting System(Data Generator)

2012/3/4 81st GRENE Workshop

Start

Execution condition setup

Acquisition of the meteorologicalstation list from MetBroker

Thread partitioningThread 1 Thread 2 Thread N

All threads finished

Output summary results of allstations

Finish

Execution of station id: 00001

Meteorological data acquisitionfrom MetBroker

Setup parameters

Model Execution

Output result

Repetitionwithparameterchange

17520times

Repetitionwithstationchange

15000/Ntimes

Thread finish

Survey of Major Crop Models

• Countries– Thailand, Indonesia

• Crops– Rice, Cassava, Corn, Sugarcane, Maize, Oil Palm, Rubber Plantation

• Survey Methods– Collecting literature, Interview to experts,Analysis on the model characteristics


Thailand

by Dr. Honda (former Associate Professor of Asian Institute of Technology: AIT)• RICE

– DSSAT–CERES‐Rice, SWAP‐WOFOST, ORYZA 2000, H08, CATCHCROP

• Sugarcane– DSSAT‐Canegro

• Cassava– DSSAT‐GUMCAS


DSSATDecision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer


• A plant module in DSSAT

• Estimate rice yield under different crop conditions: rainfed, irrigation and rice varieties.

• Simulate crop water use under difference environments

• Ability to simulate nitrogen transformation under different crop conditions.

Crop Environmental Resource Synthesis (CERES) Rice


DSSAT‐CanegroSugarcane Model


DSSAT‐GUMCAS Cassava model

Indonesiaby Dr. Budi I. Setiawan (Bogor Agricultural University)

Dynamic Rice Model(Makarim 2012)


Expert Meetings

Bangkok

Bogor2012/3/4 1st GRENE Workshop 15

Visiting Fields in Chiang Mai


Rainfed Rice Field Irrigated Rice Field

Visiting Fields in Chiang Mai


Longan Potato

Maize

Development Collaboration Network•Agriculture WG, Sensor Network WG– 33rd Meeting, Chiang Mai, 13‐17 Feb 2012

– 34th Meeting, Colombo, 25‐29 Aug 2012– 35th Meeting, Hawaii, 13‐20 Jan 2013– 36th Meeting, Korea, 19‐23 Aug 2013– 37th Meeting, Indonesia, Jan/Feb 2014


survey major crop models system effects climate change

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