Supporting decision making through adaptive tools in a changing climate

The team

• Judy Lawrence VUW

• Daniel Collins NIWA Christchurch

• Rob Bell, Scott Stephens, Paula Blackett NIWA Hamilton

• Nick Cradock-Henry Landcare Research Lincoln

• Marjolijn Haasnoot Deltares the Netherlands (parallel project and peer review)

• Bob Frame Landcare Research Lincoln & Andy Reisinger NZAGRC (peer reviewers)

Rivers and floods

River flows simulated across New Zealand to 2100.

Annual series of informative flood statistics are extracted for use with communities and analysed for trends and signal emergence.

Sea-level rise—certainty and uncertainty

near certainty:0.2-0.3 m

IPCC “likely range”across RCPs

Polar ice sheetinstabilities (outsideIPCC analysis)

deep uncertainty

When is tipping point reached as SL rises?

Wave set-up

Storm surge

Sea level variability

High-end scenario

Interactions with parameters

Climate change scenario

Global SLR

2000 21002050 2150 2200

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1Contribution of each parameter to the variance of the outcome: coastal flooding

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Pathways development

Asks the following questions

Will the option meet the long term objective?Will it increase or decrease exposure to the changing risk?What combination of options will give the greatest flexibility?What are their side effects?What other measures will assist meeting the objectives? (e.g. warning signals and decision triggers, planning controls, information)

Dynamic adaptive policy pathways

What DAPP achieves

Considers lifetime of actions

Short-term investment decisions that don’t close off options

Explores different pathways and identifies robust and flexible ones so addresses pathdependency and lock-in

Defines use-by date of options so change of path can happen

Monitors triggers regularly to identify risks and opportunities to promote timely actions

Signals, triggers and thresholds

Source: Marjolijn Haasnoot, Deltares, 2016

Triggers

• Depend on risk-time profile for receptors (people, assets, natural systems)

• Uses local risk exposure to coastal processes, storms & flooding (hazard & risk assessments)

• Integral to DAPP process—pre-defined decision points based on physical or societal conditions

• Need to build in lead time back from threshold(planning, consenting, funding, implementation)

Why are signals and triggers needed?

To support the monitoring of adaptive plans so pathways can be changed ahead of flood and SLR inundation

To reflect changed climate and socio-economic conditions

Project purpose

To model signals and design triggers using scenarios for implementing adaptive plans by decision-makers, using the Dynamic Adaptive Pathways Planning approach for managing changing flood and sea- level rise risk profiles.

The project tasks

• Pluvial flood signals • Sea level rise signals• Pluvial and sea-level rise decision triggers

templates• Test these in several locations with stakeholders for

credibility, salience and legitimacy using socio-economic scenarios

• Test with Deltares collaborators comparing with Delta plan monitoring framework under development

Shared Socio-economic Pathways

SSP indicators

Source: Frame & Reisinger (2016)

Building on international collaborations

• Sea-level rise reaches Y • No. of damaging events

(time-bound or unbound)• Erosion reaches X metres

of houses• No. of transport link

disruptions• No. of exceedances of

stormwater capacity > X

• Reach a fiscal limit• Perceptions of risk change• LOS provision below a

critical limit• Social capacity to adapt

exceeded (many smaller events c.f. an extreme

• Critical facility threatened

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Possible triggers…….

Thank you