Support to the NATO NLW

Concept Development and Experimentation Working Group

(SAS-094)

Alan Roland-Price SAS-094 arolandprice@scs-ltd.co.uk +44-118-909-0248

NATO Science & Technology Organisation

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STO

S & T

Committee

S & T

Board

CMRE CSO

6 x Technical Panels

(AVT, HFM, IST, SAS, SCI, SET)

1 x Specialist Group (NMSG)

Outline

The rationale for Non-Lethal Weapons

Update on SAS-094’s progress supporting NLW Concept Development and Experimentation

– Purpose, Participation and Programme

– Activities

• Concept Analysis

• NLW Analysis

• Support Concept Development

• Assessment/Refinement Using Operational Experimentation

• Co-ordination with other NLW activities

Feedback from ISMOR 29

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NLW

NATO Definition: NLW are explicitly designed and developed to incapacitate or repel personnel, with a low probability of fatality or permanent injury, or to disable equipment, with minimal undesired damage or impact on the environment.

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NLW

NATO Definition: NLW are explicitly designed and developed to incapacitate or repel personnel, with a low probability of fatality or permanent injury, or to disable equipment, with minimal undesired damage or impact on the environment.

ie. Acoustic systems (flash-bangs, loud speaker arrays)

Chemical systems (tear gas, pepper sprays, irritants)

Electromagnetic (laser dazzlers, tasers, RF systems)

Mechanical/kinetic (blunt impact systems, nets)

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Rationale for NLW

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“We must balance our pursuit of the enemy with our efforts to minimize loss of

innocent civilian life, and with our obligation to protect our troops."

General David H. Petraeus, US Army Commander, International Security Assistance Force and Commander, US Forces Afghanistan 2011

Isolate/Segregate

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“Every citizen of Afghanistan must know ISAF will continue to do all we can to reduce casualties that affect the Afghan civilian population."

General John R. Allen, US Marine Corps Commander, International Security Assistance Force and Commander, US Forces Afghanistan 2012

Stopping Vehicles or Vessels

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Ability to seize the initiative Need for increased decision space/time

Act while determining intent

Additional options for escalation/de-escalation

Deny an area to increase engagement range & standoff

Delay approach and increase time to respond

SAS-094 Purpose and Participation

Purpose: SAS-094 will provide analytical support for the development of

NATO and national NLW Concepts of Operations/Employment and

associated operational experimentation

Participants:

Belgium

Canada

Denmark

France

Germany

Netherlands

Norway

Sweden

United Kingdom

United States

ACO, ACT, and

CMRE

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10

Programme

Phase 1 Through Mar 2013

Phase 2 Apr-Sep 2013

Phase 3 Oct 2013-Sep 2014

Phase 4 Oct-Dec 2014

Possible

CD&E Event

Assessment/Refinement

via Operational

Experimentation

Final

Deliverables

Support

Concept

Development

Concept Analysis

NLW Analysis

Workshop

Coordination with Other NATO and National Efforts

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Environment

Demographics

Natural Resources

Energy

Economics

Dimensions (1)

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Conflict and Security

Culture and Society

Science, Technology and Innovation

State, Non-State Actors

and Global Governance

Dimensions (2)

Summary Trends and Regional Impacts

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Dimensions/ Challenges

Africa Americas Antarctic Arctic Asia Europe Middle East

Oceania

Environment P P P P P P P

Demographics P P P P P

Natural Resources P P P P P

Energy P P P P P

Economics P P P P

Conflict & Security P P P P

Culture & Society P P P P P

Science, Technology & Innovation P P P P P P

States, Non-state actors & global governance

P P P P P

Scenarios

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• Considered all dimensions across most regions (did not look at Antarctic) and looked at:

NATO references including the NATO Task List, Multiple Futures Project, and SAS-078 Scenario List

National sources including CAN Arctic options, USMC EoF Mission Tasks, US Joint Vision, UK FCOC and HLOC papers

• Were developed directly from the challenges identified from the Futures work, resulting in a focus on:

Humanitarian assistance

Maintaining law & order

Protection of nationals and national interests including energy resources, rare minerals and fishing rights.

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Scenarios

NLW Analysis Working Group

Tasks – Analyze NLW Usage and Operational Experience – Military and

law enforcement uses, NATO and national experience, lessons

learned, and the role of NLW in delivering effects

– Analyze current and potential NATO and national concepts to

identify NLW implications, opportunities, and linkages

– Assess Simulation and Analysis Tools: Identify appropriate

measures, compare NLW models to address relevance for intended

uses, identify caveats of use, assess the ability to support operational

experimentation

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Lessons from Ongoing Operations Challenges to Conventional War Paradigm

– Adversaries avoid overmatch by complicating engagements (operating amid the

populace) and using asymmetric means

– Avoiding collateral damage (especially civilian casualties) is paramount

Battle for the Narrative – Adversaries use of incidents (including false reports)

– Ability to influence local and international perceptions and support

Civilian Casualties (CIVCAS) – Shortage of non-lethal options cited. “Tools gap” between visual methods for assessing

intent and lethal force

– Recognized as a vulnerability that adversaries exploit

– Most CIVCAS incidents lacked any kind of enhanced warning

– Recommendation: Conduct a “deep dive” to identify non-lethal capabilities and options

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Sources: Draft report from Joint and Coalition Operational Analysis (JCOA) and

Civilian Casualty Study Update for ISAF: Quick Impact Recommendations, 26 September 2011

Military Utility Operational Assessment:

Vehicle Checkpoint

Location: Ft Benning, GA, March 2012

US Army infantry squad manned a

Snap Vehicle Checkpoint

Assessments made with and without NLW

With NLW:

Soldiers had time and distance to safely assess threats,

determine intent, and decide whether to employ lethal force

Much less likely to cause CIVCAS deaths or injuries

(similar in magnitude to CIVCAS study results)

Increased mission effectiveness

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Military Utility Operational Assessment:

Foot Patrol

Location: Kaneohe Bay, HI, Aug 2012

US Marine Corps infantry squad on

patrol in instrumented Military

Operations in Urban Terrain (MOUT)

facility

Assessed asymmetric warfare in

crowded urban areas

With NLW:

Dramatically improved mission effectiveness, provided

Escalation of Force levels / capabilities

Much less likely to cause CIVCAS deaths or injuries

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Case Studies • Opposed Visit, Board, Search, Seizure (VBSS)

• Vehicle Traffic Control Point

• Establish and Secure a Perimeter

• Cordon and Search

• Crowd Control

• Entry Control Point (ECP)

• Convoy Security

• Urban Patrolling

• Clear Facilities

• Non-combatant Evacuation Operations (NEO)

• Hostage Rescue/ Tactical Recovery of Aircraft and Personnel (TRAP)

• Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief

• Securing Critical Infrastructure

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Summary of SAS-094 Activities

Major Activity Status Comment

Phase 1

Concept Analysis

NLW Analysis

Complete

Future Security Environment

Scenarios

Tools and methods of analysis

Lessons learned

Case studies

Phase 2

Support Concept

Development

Just started

Selection of concept(s) and identification

of most beneficial approach to test NLW

concepts, given likely constraints in time,

tools, models and facilities

Phase 3

Operational

Experimentation

Due to start Oct 13 – Oct 14

May be postponed to link with DAT 11

timeframes.

Tabletop and decision support exercises,

modelling & simulation, wargaming,

experimentation and trials.

Coordination Ongoing Close liaison with DAT 11 programme and

events

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Inputs

• Presentation

• Syndicate discussion on 2 scenarios (CP & CM) to provide operational context

• Discussion on issues relevant to NLW concept development and experimentation

Inputs and Offers from ISMOR 29

Inputs and Offers from ISMOR 29

Offers

• Excellent dialogue

• Access to documents from The Technical Cooperation Program (TTCP) were incorporated into SAS-094’s NLW Analysis WG

• A number of offers for models or model-generated results: – PC-based model that could be useful for NLW concept experimentation – Close Combat Models

• Additional inputs – for ongoing Concept Development and for the planned Concept Experimentation phase – would be most welcome

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