Support for Budget, Tax and Social Welfare

Programs The Political Environment

Party Identification: The Rise of Independents

The Gender Gap: Female Versus Male Voters

Public Opinion: The Important Issues

The Problem with Polls• Low Level of Public Knowledge• Often Inconsistent in views• Small changes in the way a

question is worded can produce significant changes in reported opinions.

Even though it is still a long way off, thinking about the campaign for the presidential election in 2012, what two issues would you most like to hear the presidential candidates talk about? (open-ended)

Note: Only responses of 5 percent or more shown. Percentages may add to more than 100% due to multiple responses.Source: Kaiser Family Foundation Health Tracking Poll (conducted June 9-14, 2011)

5%

6%

6%

8%

11%

13%

26%

60%

War in Afghanistan/Military issues

Gas prices

Debt/Deficit

Economy/Jobs

Taxes

Education

Immigration

Economy and Jobs Dominate Voters’ Top Issues for Presidential Campaign

Health care

AMONG REGISTERED VOTERS

Addressing The Deficit Problem

Majority Expresses Little or No Trust in Super Committee

How much do you trust each of the following to make the right recommendations about ways to reduce the federal budget deficit?

The bipartisan super committee

Democrats in Congress

Republicans in Congress

President Obama

Note: Don’t know/Refused answers not shown.Source: Kaiser Family Foundation Health Tracking Poll (conducted September 7-12, 2011)

A great deal

Not at all

A fair amount

Just a little

Majority Not Confident Super Committee Will Deliver a Passable Proposal

4%

32%

36%

26%

How confident are you that the super committee will be able to come up with a proposal to cut $1.2 trillion from the federal deficit before the November deadline?

How likely do you think it is that the super committee will be able to come up with a proposal that will get enough support from both parties in Congress in order to pass?

Not at all confident

Very confident

2% Don’t know/Refused

Source: Kaiser Family Foundation Health Tracking Poll (conducted September 7-12, 2011)

6%

36%

33%

23%Not at all likely

Not too confident

Somewhat confident

2% Don’t know/Refused

Not too likely

Somewhat likely

Very likely

Most See Role For Tax Increases And Spending Reductions In Super Committee

PlanThinking about different approaches the super committee might recommend to reduce the federal budget deficit, I’d like to know how big a role you think each of the following should play in an overall deficit reduction strategy.

28%

35%

46%

48%

52%

59%

60%

36%

32%

35%

30%

26%

27%

26%

25%

15%

19%

19%

12%

10%

33%Increasing taxes for all Americans

Closing tax loopholes for wealthy Americans

Closing tax loopholes for large businesses

Increasing taxes for wealthy Americans

Note: Various items asked of half sample. Don’t know/Refused answers not shown.Source: Kaiser Family Foundation Health Tracking Poll (conducted September 7-12, 2011)

Major role No role at all

Minor role

Repealing the Bush tax cuts for all Americans

Repealing the Bush tax cuts for wealthy Americans

Reducing spending on government programs and services

Partisan Division Over How to Tackle DeficitWhich of the following would you prefer to see Congress do about the federal budget deficit?

Attempt to reduce deficit mainly through INCREASING TAXES

NOT TAKE ANY ACTION to reduce deficit now

Attempt to reduce deficit mainly by REDUCING SPENDING on government programs and services

COMBINATION of tax increases and reduced spending (vol.)

61%

50%

37%

47%

13%

25%

16%

11%

11%

11%

20%

21%

23%

21%

7%

8%

Total

Democrats

Independents

Republicans

Note: Don’t know/Refused answers not shown. Source: Kaiser Family Foundation Health Tracking Poll (conducted June 9-14, 2011)

Little Appetite For Spending Reductions In Social Security And Medicare To Reduce

DeficitIf Congress decides to reduce the deficit by reducing federal spending, I’d like to know in which areas you would be willing to see spending reduced. For each area I name, please tell me if you would support major spending reductions, minor spending reductions or no reductions at all as a way to reduce the federal deficit.

30%

48%

59%

62%

37%

36%

30%

28%

30%

14%

10%

9%

Medicare

Defense

Social Security

Medicaid

NO reductions

Support MAJOR reductions

Support MINOR reductions

Note: Don’t know/Refused answers not shown. Source: Kaiser Family Foundation Health Tracking Poll (conducted July 13-18, 2011)

Even Among Republicans and Tea Party Supporters, Most Oppose Reductions to Social

SecurityIf the super committee recommends reducing the deficit by reducing federal spending, I’d like to know in which areas you would be willing to see spending reduced. For each area I name, please tell me if you would support major spending reductions, minor spending reductions or no reductions at all as a way to reduce the federal deficit.

Note: Don’t know/Refused answers not shown.Source: Kaiser Family Foundation Health Tracking Poll (conducted September 7-12, 2011)

Total Democrats Independents Republicans

Tea Party Supporters

(regardless of party

affiliation)Social security 

No reductions 58% 65% 58% 52% 52%Minor reductions 27 24 27 31 28Major reductions 12 9 13 14 16

MedicareNo reductions 51 62 47 40 37Minor reductions 35 26 37 43 41Major reductions 13 11 14 15 22

MedicaidNo reductions 46 56 43 32 30Minor reductions 36 29 39 45 40Major reductions 16 14 15 21 29

DefenseNo reductions 28 24 30 38 43Minor reductions 39 39 38 42 41Major reductions 28 34 30 18 16

62% 61%64% 64% 63%

33% 34%30% 30%

33%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

Jan11 Feb11 Mar11 Apr11 May11

Whether or not you like the health reform law, would you say you approve or disapprove of cutting off funding as a way to stop some or all of health reform from being put into place?

Two Thirds Consistently Disapproves of Cutting Funding to Health Reform

Note: Don’t know/Refused answers not shown. Source: Kaiser Family Foundation Health Tracking Polls

Disapprove of cutting off funding

Approve of cutting off funding

Majority Concerned About Availability of Medicare in Future

How concerned are you that the Medicare benefits seniors have today will not be available for you when you retire?

Note: Don’t know/Refused answers not shown. Source: Kaiser Family Foundation Health Tracking Poll (conducted April 7-12, 2011)

64%

59%

51%

57%

24%

26%

30%

28%

11%

9%

8%

6%

5%

5%

5%

4%

Very concerned

Somewhat concerned

Not too concerned

Not at all concerned

Total 18-64

18-39

40-54

55-64

ASKED OF ADULTS AGE 18-64

Varying Support for Other Deficit Reduction Proposals Involving Medicare

I’m going to read you some other changes to the Medicare program that have been proposed as ways to reduce the federal budget deficit. Please tell me whether you would generally favor or oppose each one.

Note: Don’t know/Refused answers not shown. Source: Kaiser Family Foundation Health Tracking Poll (conducted April 7-12, 2011)

24%

61%

23%

27%

22%

25%

16%

16%

59%

35%

26%

4%

27%

9%

7% 6%

Strongly favor Somewhat favor Somewhat oppose Strongly oppose

Gradually raising the age of eligibility for Medicare from 65 to

67 for future retirees

Requiring all seniors to pay higher Medicare premiums

Requiring only higher income seniors to pay higher Medicare

premiums

Requiring drug companies to give a discount on their prices in order to

participate in the Medicare program

49%

4%

47%

Bigger or Smaller Government?In general, would you rather have the federal government provide more services, even if it costs more in taxes or have the federal government cost less in taxes, but provide fewer services?

More services even if more

taxes

No opinion

Fewer services/ less

taxes

Source: Washington Post/Kaiser Family Foundation/Harvard University Role of Government Survey (conducted September 22-October 3, 2010)

Do you think the U.S. is now spending too much, too little, or about the right amount…

Views on Spending Differ By Specificity

61%

7%

22%

10%

28%

7%42%

23%

Too muchAbout the

right amount

Toolittle

Don’t know/Refused

About the right amount

Too little

Too much

Don’t know/Refused

…on foreign aid…on efforts to improve health for people in developing countries?

Source: Kaiser Family Foundation 2010 Survey of Americans on the U.S. Role in Global Health (conducted August 3-16, 2010)

How Happy are Americans

World Economies

American Approach Versus the European Union

Approach• American approach has been to recover from the recession and then tackle budget issues.

• EU has been to tackle budget problems during the recession.

Unemployment Rates: January 2012

Spain: A Depression