supply chains, investment portfolios, and roster management joel sokol, phd...
TRANSCRIPT
Key Questions
How valuable will each player be? Variability/forecast error Short and long term
Roster composition – who’s on the team? Now and future
Player development – who’s on their way? Coordination through entire system
OPERATIONS RESEARCH
What is operations research?
Mathematical modeling and solution/analysis techniques for:
Understanding complex systems
Accounting for stochastic/random outcomes
Optimizing system performance …or performance of a particular system participant
Investment portfolio optimization
Maximize $ return Diversification
By economic sector, size By risk profile By value in various economic conditions
Budget restrictions Determine the right risk level for each investor
OR used by every major investment firm, hedge fund, mutual fund, etc. – $Billions
The roster as a portfolio of players
Maximize $ return Diversification
By economic sector, size By risk profile By value in various
economic conditions
Budget restrictions Determine the right risk
level for each investor
Maximize team success Diversification
By position and skill set By risk profile By value in reg. season
and in playoffs
Budget restrictions Determine the right risk
level for each team
Supply chain coordination
Acquisition of raw materials Progression through refining, manufacturing,
packaging, etc. Periodic quality checks (rework or discards) Can purchase spare assets from competitors Key: Goods/services ready right when needed
OR used by almost all major manufacturers/ service providers (Ex: GM saves $2B)
Player development as a supply chain
Acquisition of raw materials Progression through refining,
manufacturing, packaging, etc. Periodic quality checks (rework or
discards) Can purchase spare assets from
competitors
Key: Goods/services ready right when needed
Draft/acquire “raw” players
Progression through stages of minor league system
Periodic quality checks (repeat league or release)
Can acquire assets (trade, free agency) from competitors
Key: New players ready right when needed
Successful mathematical models/methods
Selecting maximum-value portfoliosAccounting for risk and variability
Coordination across multi-stage systemsPlanning today for future needs/circumstances
Important differences (research required)
Variability in raw talent More competition for scarce assets Higher value of winning
Can operations research help?
What will a combined model do?
Is a trade/free agent signing worthwhile given a team’s risk profile and season/playoff needs?
Which players will likely be “surplus”? Get value for them now
Where/when will shortages likely occur? Remedy before need becomes acute
How could drafts/trades/signings/contracts/promotion be structured to minimize or avoid exposure to shortage?
Etc.
Where we are so far? (GT-centric)
Current research progress
Combined portfolio/supply chain framework model for roster managementInvestigation of value profiles
Identified some categories of players who lose more value in playoff situations than others do
Biggest needs
Full data (esp. defense), interactions, projections Team specifications (horizon, need to win, get to
playoff vs. win playoffs, mgr. preferences, etc.)
Opportunity for collaboration
Benefits for operations research partners
Development of new mathematical models and methodology
Enjoyable work for baseball fans!
Benefits for MLB partners
Early-adopter competitive advantage Customized planning models
Operations research at Georgia Tech
Industrial and Systems Engineering (#1-ranked) Supply Chain Logistics Institute (SCL) Quantitative and Computational Finance (QCF) Algorithms, Combinatorics, & Optimization (ACO) Engineering Statistics (STAT) Stochastics, Simulation, Human-Computer Interaction, etc.
Previous GT/OR sports-related successes Schedules for MLB in 2005 & 2007 (SCL & ACO) Ranking system for NCAA basketball tournament selection
and seeding (SCL, ACO, QCF, STAT)