supply chain disruption and innovation · supply chain disruption and ... • costs to make changes...
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Supply chain disruption and innovation!
Professor John Manners-Bell, Chief Executive, Ti Insight!!October 2017!
The four ‘Ds’ of Supply Chain Disruption!
© Transport Intelligence! July 2017! 2!
Source:Adaptedfrom‘Bold’,byDiamandisandKotler
How to spot a successful innovator!
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Wellifweknewthat…Butindicatorstosuccessdoexist:1. Thestartupistacklingaproblemwithinindustry(suchasinefficiency)whichiffixedwillrelease
value(partly,atleast,tothestartup).2. TheexisDngmarketincumbentsarefailingtoaddressthisproblem.3. Themarketislargeenoughtosupportthebusinessmodelandthereisscalability.4. ThesoluDonmustbecounter-intuiDve,leveragetechnologiespresentinothersectorsorbundle
exisDngtechnologiesinuniqueways.5. ItsproductmustbedifferenDatedsufficientlyfromotherstartups.6. TheinnovatorhasacommiMedanddeterminedfounderandastrongmanagementteam.7. IthascustomersonboardtesDngtheconcept(evenifnotpaying).8. Ithassufficientfunding-criDcaltoprovidescaletocompetewithincumbentsandotherstartups.9. ThesoluDonworksintherealworld(especiallywheninvolvingthemovementofphysicalgoods)10. GreatPRandmarkeDng.
Major Logistics Start-Up Categories!
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Cloud-basedsupplychainso2ware
Marketplaces
Blockchain/distributeddatabasesInternetofThings
Autonomousvehicles(outsideacontrolledenvironment)
CollaboraCveroboCcs
European road freight marketplaces!
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• ThebigproblemwithEuropeanroadfreightmarketplacesisthatthereisliMletodifferenDateonefromoneanother.
• TradiDonal‘freightexchanges’havematchedloadsandsparecapacityformanyyears–theonlydifferencewiththelatestgeneraDonofmarketplacesisthattheseservicesmakeuseofsmartphones.
• Inordertobesuccessful,thesebusinessesneedtomaintainbothaneffecDveserviceandalargesupplyofdrivers.
• However,ascompeDDoncommodiDsesthebasicload-matchingservicetheyprovide,shippersrisklowqualityserviceandcarriersrisklowpay–itbecomesaracetotheboMombasedonprice.
• Thesuccessfulcompaniesbuildingonthemarketplaceideawillbemobile-enabledservicebusinesses,notjustatechnologicallayer.
• NetworkeffectsarecriDcaltosuccess.Theseoccurwhenaservicebecomesmorevaluabletoitsusersasmorepeopleadoptit,creaDngbarrierstoentryforrivals,andbarrierstoexitforusers.
Why do even ‘good’ start ups fail?!
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Casestudy:Palleter• AimedtotransformEuropeanfreight
market–pla^ormtobeMermatchsupplyanddemand.
• Smart,linkbetweenfleetGPStelemetryprovidersandshippers’freightoffers.
• Seeminglystrongbusinessoffering.• Modelwouldreplaceadhoc
communicaDonmechanisms• Raised€1minfunding• However,closeddownin2017and
returnedmoneytoinvestors.• Why?
AnunderstandingoftheproblemwhichthestartupistryingtosolveiscriDcal.ManystartupsfailbecausetheyareeitherofferingasoluDonnobodywantsoriswillingtopayfor,ortheymisunderstandthefundamentalbehaviourswhichcreatedtheprobleminthefirstplace.
Palleter: lessons for other innovators!
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Despitethe‘neat’soluDonaddressingamajorindustryproblematamacrolevel,operaDonalandtechnologicalproblemswerenotaddressed.Technology
• CompanieswereunwillingtospendmoneyandDmeondataextracDonfromtheirexisDngsystems• ITdepartmentswerefocusedonkeepingexisDngsystemsrunning,notonnewiniDaDves.• NobodywillingtogambleonreplacinglegacysystemswithnewoperaDonspla^orms.• ComplexityofdatasharingbetweensupplypartnersunderesDmated.
OperaDonal• Muchofthevauntedsparecapacityontruckswas,inreality,notaccessible.• Companieswereunwillingtore-routetrucksevenshortdistances• Pla^ormrequiredcooperaDonofexisDngplayersandculturalshig
EventhoughaproblemhadbeenidenDfied,Palleter’ssoluDononlyovercamesomeofthechallenges.ItssoluDondidnotfactorintruecostofitsusersandopposiDontochangeatgrassrootslevel.
‘Start up’ value ratio!
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Doestheloadmatchingpla^ormoffercompellingvalueforbothsuppliersandshippers?
StartUpValue=Perceivedbenefits/TotalcostPerceivedbenefits=Valueofincreasedloadsforsuppliers,lowerratesforshippersTotalcost=chargeforusingservice(negligible,inPalleter’sesDmaDon)BUTPalleterunder-esDmatedtangibleandintangiblecostsforsuppliers(andhenceshippers)Totalcostshouldhaveincluded:• coststomakechangestosuppliers’andshippers’technologysystemsaswellasmanagementDme• intangiblecostssuchaschangingoperaDngpracDces(andunwillingnesstoadoptnewoperaDng
models)• Dmetakentore-routetrucks
Theresultwas:• notenoughuserstocreatecompeDDvemarket• higherpricesonPalleterthanonopenmarket• incumbents(suchasDSV)wereactuallymorepricecompeDDveforlessefficienttransport.
Creating a defensible freight exchange!
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• TruckerPathofferscrowd-sourcedguidancetotruckdrivers;thisincludesthenearesttruckstop,weighstaDons,hotels,dieselfuelandfreightshipments.
• Freightshipmentsaremanagedthroughamarketplacesystemforregionalorlong-haulbusiness,wherebrokerssubmitshipmentsalongwithdeadlines,desDnaDonsandotherrequirements,withparkingandnavigaDoninformaDontolong-haultruckersintheUS.
• ThecompanyiniDallylaunchedasafreeinformaDonserviceapp,beforesubsequentlyaddingthefreightmarketplace.Assuch,thebusinesshadculDvatedacommunityofusers,andhasbuiltoutitsmarketplaceasanaddiDonalservicewithinawiderecosystem.
• Furthermore,TruckerPathhasbeensuccessfulinaddingapaymentsservice‘InstaPay’.Thisnon-recoursefactoringarrangementpayscarriersimmediately,issuingaone-Dmeflatratewithnohiddenfees,andaddressesamajorpainpointamongstcarrierswhoogenwait30-60daysbeforereceivingpayment.
• Intotal,TruckerPathclaimstoserve550,000longhaultruckersintheUS,outofatotalofroughly1.6m.Thecompany’smarketplacebusiness,‘Truckloads’,servessubstanDallyless(around100,000with3mmonthlyloadposDngs),butbygainingtracDonamongstthepopulaDonoflong-hauldriversintheUS,thecompanyhasestablishedadefensibleposiDon.
Start up successes!
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PurchasedbyeBay(forlessthanUS$100m).ShutlpreviouslyraisedUS$8.69mfromUPS,LaPosteandothers,in7venturecapitalfundingrounds
€22minvestmentin2015byGeoPost
ThecompanyhasreceivedfundingofUS$186.7minfiverounds,from16investors
FundingofUS$274.8minfiverounds,from12investors.AnewUS$220mSeriesCfundinground,thatvaluedthecompanyatmorethan$2bn,wasannouncedinJanuary2015
FundingofUS$25.03m,infourrounds,from8investors
Backedbyfirst-DerinvestorsraisingUS$1bn.Launchedin2011,itoperatesfooddeliveryservicesin33countries,employing3,000people
StartedoutasthelogisDcsarmofXerion.GainedUS$20minfundingfromSnapdealinOctober2015,beforebeingacquiredbythee-commercemarketplaceinJuly2016
eBayconDnuestoinvestinSHUTL.InSeptember2016itannouncedarevampallowingeasieraccessforSMEs
ThecompanylauncheditslastmiledeliveryserviceforbusinessesinApril2016.PosiDvesignsarebackingfromLaPosteandapartnershipwithJustEat
GainedUS$127minfundingataSeriesCroundduringMarch2016,andexpandedintoAusDn,Texas,inAugust
HasexpandedintociDesinMassachuseMs,Florida,Georgia,NewJersey,NorthCarolinaandCaliforniaduring2016
GainedUS$15minSeriesBfundingduringJune2016
PulledoutofChina,butisnowseekinganIPOtoraise€175mtofundaddiDonalgrowthprojects
TheacquisiDonbySnapdealwasdrivenbytheacquirer’simperaDvetokeepupwithrivalsFlipkartandAmazon,andsecureguaranteedcapacity
Start up failures!
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GainedUS$2minseedfunding.Setupasafooddeliverycompany
VariousinsDtuDonalandindividualinvestorsraisedUS$23m
SubsidiarydeliveryarmofDeliveryHero,launchedin2015.AMemptedtooutsourcedeliveryforfastfoodrestaurants
FoodpandaraisedUS$210min2015—includingaUS$100minjecDonfromGoldmanSachsandaseparateUS$110mround
SecuredUS$51.2macross4roundsoffunding,from7investors
HasgainedUS$165.5mthrough3investors,in4fundingrounds
GainedUS$7.26macross3roundsoffunding
Lackedtheresourcesandcostcontrolnecessarytoscale.Soldtechnologypla^ormtoJustEatinSeptember2016
CloseddownandacquiredbydeliveryserviceAlfredinMay2015.Failedtoscaleenoughtocompete
EnteredadministraDoninApril2016agerfailingtogetcostsundercontrol.ScaleduptooquicklyandfoundacceptablemarginsunaMainable
HassoldbusinessesinMexico,BrazilandIndonesiaandhaslaidoff15%ofemployeesinIndiaandHongKong.ItisrethinkingitsSouthEastAsiastrategy.OnlyprofitableinsmallermarketsofSaudiArabiaandEasternEurope.ParentRocketInternethasbeenunabletofindbuyers.
CollapsedinApril2016asaresultofscalinguptooquickly.
ForcedtodownsizeoperaDonsfrom26ciDesto17ciDesandalsolaidoff10%ofitsstaffin2016.Enduringlegalcasesfromrevokedhires
ZyllemexitedthelogisDcsbusinessinSeptember2016,inordertofocusitsresourcesonthedevelopmentofsogwareinserviceoflogisDcsfirms
Incumbents precarious on the ‘Burning Platform’!
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Marketincumbents(suchasFedEx–seegraphicbelow)areundersustainedaMackfromnewmarketentrants.WilltheyremainverDcallyintegratedorwillnewmarketplayersemergethatbundle‘bestinbreed’soluDons?
!
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• Foundedin2013byCEORyanPetersen• VCfundingof$94minlastfouryears(spentonR&D,recruitmentandtraining)• 4officesinUS;2inAsiaand1inEurope• 280employees• Planstocreate25crossdockfaciliDesformergeintransitservices• CEOexpectstobeTop20NVOCContranspacificlanesbyendof2017
FlexportisparttradiDonalforwarderandparttechnologycompany.Itrealisesthatforwardingisnotacommodity,butatthesameDmecanusetechnologytoimprovedecision-makingthroughincreasedvisibility.‘…forwardingfirst,codingsecond’SuiteofdigiDzedservicesinclude:• Palletlevelvisibility• Compliance• Truckingcompanypla^orm• Purchaseordermanagement
• SMEsalargeproporDonofFlexport’scustomersusingself-serviceinterface• ManycustomerssellingonAmazonorfast-growinge-commercecompanies• China-USabigmarket• PredictabilityfundamentaltoFlexport’srelaDonswithairandoceancarriers• Aimstobe‘premiumprovider’
E-Commerce Challenges and Opportunities!
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JohnLewisOnlineSalesY-o-Y-BlackFridayWeek
UKretailerJohnLewisexemplifiesthechallengesfacedbye-commerceoperaDons.By2019,JLforecaststhat50%ofitssaleswillbeonline.However,wildvolaDlityduringBlackFridayweek–howcanretailersandtheirlogisDcsproviderscope?
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E-Commerce Logistics and Last Mile!
CustomersincreasinglydemanddeliverychoiceoflocaDonandDmeplusflexibility.Carriersarepaidlowrates,havehighdeliverycosts(dispersedresidenDalnetworkandnot-at-homes),andlowefficiency.Howcanthesedemandsbemet?• AlternaDvedeliverylocaDons(e.g.lockers
attrainstaDons/garagesetc,neighbour,depots).
• ClickandCollect.• Enhanceddeliveryflexibility.“ThefutureofcurrentlastmiledeliverysoluDonsisnon-existent.Togiveitafuture,youneedtomakesurethateverytransportcapacitybecomestransferable,scalable,andcanbeadaptedatnoextracosttotheservicetheconsumerwants,toenableapricewhereyoucanmakeaprofit.”JeromeCharlez,formerstrategyandmarkeEngexecuEveatGeoPost/LaPoste
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Last Mile Solutions Case Studies!
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Urbantz• Belgium-basedfirstandlastmiledelivery
cloudsogware• Raisedapproximately€750k• SavingDmebyincreasingdelivery
efficiencyofparcelsrounds• AutomaDcallyorderingdeliveryschedule
andinformingdrivervia• RealDmeend-to-endtracking• Improveefficiency‘byupto50%’–from
140ordersperdayto210(atpeak)• Negligibletrainingrequired• Believedtobedevelopingdynamic
deliveryopDons–geofencingofend-recipients.
‘Stuart’(acquiredbyLaPoste)• DisrupDveon-demanddeliveryappand
pla^ormdesignedforCityLogisDcs.• Foundedin2015inParisandBarcelona.• Backedby€22Mininvestment,Stuartis
buildingoutitsurbanlogisDcspla^ormacrossEurope:London,Brussels,Berlin,Madrid.
• Operatesnetworksofself-employedcouriers.
• Samehourdelivery.• ‘AmazonPrimeNowforlocalstores’• Notjustfood(peaksandtroughsfor
couriers)–deliveryallday.• GeoPostearlyinvestor(22%in2015)but
now100%owner.
Strategy• ProvideSMEcouriercompanieswith
‘corporatequality’TMScapabiliDes.
Strategy• Enableincumbenttotestlastmile
technologiesandbusinessmodelbeforeenteringmarket.
Consolidation in the on-demand delivery sphere!
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• ThecriDcalquesDonforcompaniesprovidingon-demanddeliveryservicesiswhetherornotthereisalargeenoughmarkettosupportthem.
• Inordertomakeaprofit,businesseslikeDeliverooneedtohaveahighfrequencyoforderswithinanoperaDonalarea,andifthisfrequencydropsbelowacertainrate,theuniteconomicsoftheserviceareunworkable.
• Therearetwomaincausesofthis:• Themarketwasneverlargeenoughtosupporttheserviceinthefirstplace• CompeDDonfromrivalserviceprovidershasdilutedmarketshare
• SolongascompeDngstart-upspossessthefundingtoexpandtheirbusiness,thelaMerissuecanbeaddressedbypricingincenDvesforbothcouriersandconsumersinordertobuildeffecDveeconomiesofscale.
• Thisinevitablyresultsinfinanciallosses,forcingstart-upsinacompeDDvemarkettomaketoughchoiceswhenthemoneybeginstorunout.
• ConsolidaDonamongsttheexisDngcompaniesisinevitable,throughM&Aandbankruptcy.Duetothegeographicalnatureofthismarket,itislikelythatcertaincompanieswilldominateincertaincountries;DidiChuxinginChinaversusUberintheUSA,forexample.
Sharing Economy and Crowdshipping!
TransportaDonservicesarehighlyinefficient:29%HGVsrunningempty(FTA).Thankstotheadvancesinmobiletechnologies,independentcontractorscannowbelinkedmoreefficientlywhichinthecaseofUber,couldresultindisintermediaDonoflegacycarriers.Wal-martnowpiloCngtheuseofemployeestoundertakedeliveries
NetworkconnectedmobiledevicesareverypowerfulcommunicaDonandsensorpla^orms.
Theyarethemeanstoengageeverypartyinthechain.AlloftheparDescanbecombinedintoavirtualpartnershiptaskedwithdeliveringtheservicetothecustomer.
TheyhavebeenuDlizedbydisruptorssuchasUbertochallengeregulatedsectorssuchastaxis–butnowalsotransportaDon.
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Amazon – The Ultimate Disruptor?!
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StepOne–ReduceCosts
Amazon’sstrategyhasbeentoachieveeconomiesofscalethroughitsownershipofavastnetworkofwarehousingandfulfilmentcentresandisjusDfiedbythevolumesofmaterialitputsthroughthem.
Thisstrategycanbeappliedtoair,roadandseatoleveragebuyingpowerand,ifappropriate,in-sourcing.StepTwo–Disrupttheindustry
MirroringthestrategyofAmazon'scloudcompuDngarm,AmazonWebServices(nowthecompany'sfastestgrowingunit).TheservicewaslaunchedtoserveitsownretailoperaDonsbutnowhostsdataforothercompanies.LikewiseFulfilledbyAmazon(FBA)–providingservicesforotherretailersfromitsownfulfilmentcentres.Future,providethirdpartytransportaDonservicesforothershippers,therebymaximisingassetuDlisaDon(andreducingcosts).
Amazon:LogisCcscostsasaproporConoftotalsales
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Amazon – Logistics strategy!
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AirCargo
AmazoniscurrentlyoperaDng16planesinitsNorthAmericanoperaDons,havingsecuredleasesfromATSGandAtlasAirduring2016.EachcompanywillprovideAmazonwith20B767Faircragaspartoftheagreements.
Amazonannouncedplansfora$1.49bn,900acreairhubinNorthernKentuckythisFebruary.ItwilliniDallyuseDHLExpressfortransatlanDcflights.AmazonhasalreadytrialledacharteredB767flyingfiveDmesaweekbetweentheUK,GermanyandPoland.
SeaFreight
Amazonhasobtainedlicencesthroughsubsidiary‘BeijingCenturyJoyoCourierService’tooperateasanNVOCCtoconsolidateshipmentstoportsinJapan,EuropeandUS.
Why?Tocutshippingcostsbybundlingproductsfromsmallandmedium-sizedcompaniestofillcontainers.
Amazonshipped10,00020-footcontainersintotheUSin2015andanaddiDonal20,000containersfrommerchantsaspartofthecompany's‘FulfillmentbyAmazon’program.
Amazon – Last Mile!
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StrategytoverDcallyintegratetransportservicesinsomemarketswhereitseespotenDaltodrivedowncosts.Actas4PLinothers.
US• AmazonPrimeFresh(groceries)ownsdeliveryfleets
insomestates• PrimeNowtrucksinselectedciDes• Amazonrestaurants–mealdeliveryservice• AmazonPrimeSame-Day• AmazonFlex–Uber-Cargolikeservice• Ownsandoperatestrailersfortrunkingbetween
AmazonfaciliDes
France• Amazonholds25%ofColisPrivé,ahomedelivery
companywith2,000sub-contractorsandvolumesof35millionparcels.FullacquisiDonblockedoncompeDDongrounds.
UK• Amazonoperatesatleast24deliverydepotsinthe
UK,whichareoperatedbyAmazonLogisDcs–thisdisintermediatestransportoperaDonstouDlisearound45smallandregionalplayers
Germany
• AmazonhasopenedasorDngcentreinMunich,employing130workersasafirststeptocutoutlargerparcelscompanies(DHLandHermes).Alsoestablishingparcellockernetwork.
• InMunich,Amazonnowhas240deliveryvansoperatedbysixsub-contractors.Onlaunch,thisoperaDontookathirdofDHL'svolumesinMunich.
• Amazonisnotonlylookingatmovingitsowngoods.‘Weknowwe’reverygoodatlogisDcs.Whyshouldn’tweturnthatintoaninfrastructureofferthatotherscanuse?’-RoyPerDcucci,Amazon’sEuropeanheadoflogisDcs.
Next steps: Groceries and Fashion supply chains!
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WholefoodsacquisiDon
• AmazonentersbricksandmortargroceryretailingpredominantlyintheUS.
• DeploybothitslogisDcsandtechnologyinfrastructure.
• HelpWholeFoodsdevelop,drivingdowncostsandsalesup.
• PotenDalhomedeliveryand‘PrimeNow’• In-store‘clickandcollect’capabiliDes.• Dronedispatchpoints?• ThespringboardtofurtheracquisiDons–
especiallyintherestofworld?
AmazonPrimeWardrobe
• Pickbetween3-15items.• Tryonforupto7days• Freepickupofreturnedclothes• Keep5ormorefor20%discount• FreeserviceforPrimemembers• Onlinefashionfastgrowingmarket–17%of
allonlinespend.• ImplicaDonsforreverselogisDcs–increasein
costs.AmazonFashion
• End-to-endsupplychainapproach• OtheriniDaDves:‘Stylecheck’throughthe
EchoLookdevice(Alexa-enabledcamera)tocreatea‘personallookbook’.
• Amazonfilespatentdesignforon-demandapparelmanufacturingfacility.
Blockchain in Supply Chains!
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• Theblockchainisapermanentdigitalrecord(orledger)oftransacDonsthatisstoredacrossadistributednetworkofcomputers.
• ThewayitoperatesavoidsduplicaDonandisalmostimpossibletomodifyorspoofbyunauthorizedparDes.
• Althoughthereisoneclearmasterrecord,thecomputersinvolvedarenotownedorcontrolledbyanysinglepartyororganisaDon.
• Thedistributednatureoftheblockchainmeansthatitcannotbetamperedwitheasily.
• SupplychainsareessenDallyaseriesofcontractsbetweennumerousparDesengagedinthebuyingofcomponents,productsandservicestomanufacture,verify,transport,storeandselltocustomers.
• EachelementofthesechainsinvolvesnetworksofparDcipantsexchangingdataandinformaDonwithvaryingdegreesofaccuracyandclarity.
Benefitswillinclude:• ImprovecashflowbystreamliningfinancialtransacDons.
• Improvedinventoryvisibilityacrossfragmentednetworks.
• Shipmentvisibility.• AuthenDcityofproductsguaranteedandreducDonofcounterfeiDng.
• AuthenDcaDonofVerifiedGrossMass(VGM)data.
• EthicalimplicaDons–applicaDoninmovementofendangeredspeciesproducts.
Challengesare:
• SheervolumeoftransacDonsslowingdownvalidaDonprocess.
• OvercomingpercepDonoftransparencyandlackofconfidenDality.
Blockchain in Supply Chains!
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• MarineTransportInternaDonal–AforwarderworkingwithblockchaintechnologycompanyTrustMeandpredicDveanalysisexpertBlackSwanData.Thecompanyplanstouseblockchaintoallowcompaniestobuild‘ecosystems’betweensupplychainparDeswithtrustgainedastransacDonsarepubliclyrecorded.ApplyingthetechnologytomanagetheVerifiedGrossMass(VGM)datarequiredbytheIMO’sSOLAStreaty.
• MaerskLine–MaerskhasdevelopedasystemwithIBMusingtheopen-sourcedHyperledgerblockchaintomanageitscargo,providingvisibility.ItalsoaimstoprovidepubliclyviewableinformaDononemptycontainerstoallowshipperstofindextracapacityacrosstheshippingindustry.
• Foxconn–FnConn,asubsidiaryofFoxconn,oneofthelargestelectronicmanufacturersintheworld,hasjoinedupwithmarketplacelendingpla^ormDianrong.Thetwocompaniesaretriallingablockchainsupplychainfinancepla^ormaimedatprovidingfinancetosuppliersviapeer-to-peerlending.
• Everledger–Astart-upbasedintheUK,Everledgerhasbuiltaglobal,digitalledgerthattracksassetsthroughouttheirproductjourneyandisworkingwithSAPAribaonsupplychainapplicaDons.
• Skuchain–SkuchainisdevelopingasoluDontofacilitatelendingbyfinanciersagainsttradeinstrumentssuchaspurchaseordersandinvoices,thuscollateralisingtheloans.ThecompanyalsoprovidesvisibilityonthetransacDonstatesoftheseloans.
• CargoChain–Astart-upwhichoffersaseMlementpla^ormthatprovidesallparDesinashippingtransacDonwithaninterfacetoviewinformaDonassociatedtocargo.DeploysRFIDtoprovidereal-Dmevisibility.
• Yojee-–Astart-upwhichprovidesaparceldeliverymarketplaceusingArDficialIntelligence(AI)andblockchain.Theformerisusedtoassigndeliveryjobstodrivers,whilstthelaMerrecordsthetransacDons.
• TransRisk–Financestart-upthatprovidesfuturescontractstohedgeagainstmovementsinlinehaulfreightrates.ItusesblockchaintorecordtransacDonsonitstradingtool.
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