Originally posted 8 January 2014; corrected 9 January 2014

www.sciencemag.org/content/347/6218/133/suppl/DC1

Supplementary Materials for

China’s Aquaculture and the World’s Wild Fisheries

Ling Cao, Rosamond Naylor,* Patrik Henriksson, Duncan Leadbitter, Marc Metian, Max Troell, Wenbo Zhang

*Corresponding author. E-mail: roz@stanford.edu

Published 9 January 2015, Science 346, 133 (2014) DOI: 10.1126/science.1260149

This PDF file includes

Materials and Methods Supplementary Text Figs. S1 to S8 Tables S1 to S5 References

Other Supplementary Material for this manuscript includes the following: (available at www.sciencemag.org/content/347/6218/page/suppl/DC1) Calculations, baseline assumptions, and raw data can be found in the following Excel tables

Table S6. Raw data for Figures S2 to S8 Table S7. Calculations for Table S3 base cases Table S8. Calculations for Table S4 Table S9. MC outputs for Policy Forum figure and Table S3

Correction: Equations now appear.

METHODS

Data collection. Primary data for this study were obtained from interviews with fish farmers and

fishmeal and feed manufacturers in China’s major aquaculture producing regions—Guangdong,

Shandong, Zhejiang, and Hainan. The data were based on in-depth field surveys conducted by

the Center on Food Security and the Environment at Stanford University

(http://foodsecurity.stanford.edu) and the EU-FP7 Sustaining Ethical Aquaculture Trade (SEAT)

project (www.seatglobal.eu) in 2010–2012. The surveys focused on carp, tilapia, and shrimp

systems, which represent three of the largest aquaculture subsectors in China along a spectrum of

low- to high-valued species and account for >50% of the country’s aquaculture output by

volume. These systems span a suite of target markets, including species produced mainly for

domestic consumption (carps), species in transition from export-oriented to domestic market

(shrimp), and species still primarily destined for export markets (tilapia).

Structured systematic questionnaires for two separate surveys of fish production and fishmeal

and feed manufacturing were tested in the field and then improved in response to feedback

before the start of general surveys. The fish production survey mainly collected information on

farm characteristics such as farm area, pond size, labor, and feed use; farming techniques, such

as stocking density and water quality control; production costs; disease outbreak; main concerns

during fish farming; as well as consumer preference for whole fish. The survey of fishmeal and

feed manufacturing mainly covered topics of feeds produced, feed ingredients (raw materials)

used and their origin and substitutions, utilization of fish-processing wastes, annual production

quantities, sales and marketing, price fluctuations, and challenges faced. The survey instruments

are available through the following links:

1) For the Stanford survey:

http://fse.fsi.stanford.edu/research/chinas_impact_on_forage_fisheries_aquaculture_and_

feed_use_in_china

2) For the SEAT survey: http://media.leidenuniv.nl/legacy/seatsurveysampledesignd1-

murray-2013.pdf

Total sample size was determined according to resource availability. A total of 238 carp farms

(Zhejiang 118, Shandong 120), 300 shrimp farms (Guangdong 200, Hainan 100), 320 tilapia

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farms (Guangdong 135, Hainan 185), 21 feed and 4 fishmeal companies were surveyed. The

regions surveyed were selected for the prevalence of carp (Zhejiang and Shandong), tilapia

(Guangdong and Hainan), and shrimp (Guangdong and Hainan) aquaculture. Within each region,

producers were selected randomly for the sample, and information from available contacts was

used to expand the sample size (“snowball sampling”). The feed and fishmeal companies

targeted for the survey were among the largest in these regions at the time of the study

(collectively accounting for ~13% of China’s fishmeal production and ~6% of the country’s total

aquafeed production); they produced feeds and feed ingredients that are widely sold within the

industry. For each survey site, farm owners or head managers were interviewed. Facility records

were used for verification to reduce possible errors. The names and contact information for the

respondents are held confidential under the IRB agreements.

A careful review of papers from the Chinese literature (and international literature) on China’s

aquaculture practices, use of diverse fish inputs—including processing by-products, in feeds,

multi-species fisheries, and by-catch categories—was performed in order to filter out the top

scholarly work and most accurate numbers and/or trends. References to articles written in

Mandarin have been translated into English in the citations of this Policy Forum and

supplementary materials.

Data management and analysis. Primary data obtained from these surveys were compiled and

analyzed using Microsoft Excel 2010 and R (version 3.1.0, www.r-project.org). The data were

scanned for outliers (greater than two standard deviations from the overall sample mean) in R;

these outliers were then evaluated using a number of possible triangulations from our original

questionnaires, and any physically or economically impossible data points were removed and

reset to the mean of the sample for further analyses. From the remaining values, economic

average feed conversion ratios (FCRs) and fishmeal and fish oil inclusion rates in feeds were

defined by arithmetic means. Fishmeal and fish oil inclusions in feeds were calculated as a

percentage of the total feed production for each species, which captured juvenile, grow-out, and

finisher feeds.

2

Equations for authors’ calculations in Policy Forum Table:

FCR = total feed fedtotal biomass increase

Total fishmeal used = production with feeds × FCR × average % fishmeal (FM) in feed

Forage fish equivalent = total fishmeal used21%

[Note: Fish oil is a byproduct of fishmeal production.

In this study, forage fish equivalent to produce fishmeal can produce enough fish oil for use in

the feeds of tilapia and shrimp. Therefore, total forage fish equivalent was calculated based on

only fishmeal used in the feeds.]

Equations for authors’ calculations in the Policy Forum figure:

Total seafood supply = imports + domestic farmed + domestic wild caught

Proportion used for processing = total raw seafood for processing

total seafood supply

Total whole fish supply = whole fish imports + domestic farmed + domestic wild caught

Whole fish used for processing = total whole fish supply × proportion used for processing

Processed fish = whole fish used for processing × fish processing yield rate

Fish waste = whole fish used for processing in China × waste ratio

Potential fishmeal yield from fish waste = fish waste × fishmeal reduction ratio

Potential fish oil yield from fish waste = fish waste × fish oil reduction ratio

Monte Carlo analysis. A Monte Carlo analysis was undertaken in Oracle Crystal Ball (Release

11.1.2.3.500, http://www.oracle.com/technetwork/middleware/crystalball/overview/index.html)

to estimate the aggregate impact of data uncertainty on fishmeal and oil yield from fish-

processing waste in China (here, “fish” is limited to finfish and crustaceans; mussels are

excluded because their waste is rarely used in feed production). The uncertainty parameters

represented variations in the yield of fish waste during processing and its market allocation for

fishmeal and oil production (Table S5). The parameter estimates for the model were obtained

from our interviews with fishmeal and feed companies and from personal communication with

experts in the field and then triangulated with values taken from the literature. We calculated

uncertainty results from 50,000 simulations using the Monte Carlo sampling method.

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Scenarios for the Monte Carlo analysis. Two scenarios were developed to assess China’s

potential in recycling fish-processing wastes for feeds. Scenario 1, which examines processing

wastes from finfish only, is considered the most likely scenario, because finfish-processing

wastes are used mainly for producing fishmeal, whereas crustacean wastes are used for

producing a wide range of feed and (mostly) nonfeed products. Scenario 2, which includes all

processing wastes from both finfish and crustaceans, is reported only in the SM for comparison

purposes. Some crustacean-processing wastes are used as aquafeed supplements or attractants.

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Supplemental Note 1: Trends in China’s fish consumption, production, and trade

China’s fisheries sector (farmed and capture) involves a complex web of producing, processing,

and trading fish for direct human consumption and recycling fish for fishmeal and fish feeds, as

illustrated in Fig. S1. Data and sources of data for these trends are provided in Excel file Table

S6. Raw data for Figures S2 to S8.

Consumption

China is currently the world’s largest consumer of fish, accounting for one-quarter of global fish

demand, and its fish consumption continues to rise with its burgeoning middle-income class (3).

Its per capita fish intake is estimated at 12.6 to 14.2 kg/year when out-of-home consumption is

included (11) and is expected to increase by 25% by 2030 (2). Growth in demand for fish is

expected to be particularly strong in rural areas (29). Of all fish consumed in China, fresh whole

fish account for 88%, which indicates a strong preference for live and fresh fish by Chinese

consumers; however, tastes are likely to change over time. In China, as in other Asian countries,

patterns of fish consumption and trade are determined by rising incomes, out-of-home

consumption, a preference for convenience foods, and a taste for high-valued fish products (e.g.,

shrimp, crab, lobster, and salmon) and other luxury seafood (e.g., live reef fish and caviar) (2, 11,

29).

Per capita seafood consumption in China has doubled over the last two decades (Fig. S2).

Interpreting fish demand trends for China is difficult because estimates for China’s per capita

seafood consumption vary by source (11). China’s average seafood consumption was 10.5

kg/capita in 2012 according to National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBSC). Official Chinese

statistics do not account for out-of-home consumption, however, and thus underestimate per

capita seafood consumption by 20to 35% in both rural and urban areas (11). Food and

Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) statistics on per capita seafood

consumption in China are substantially higher than the national averages recorded by NBSC

(Fig. S3). This difference arises because FAO statistics refer to per capita seafood supply

(physical availability), which are very close to the availability numbers reported in the China

Fisheries Yearbook.

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Production

China’s total fish production (via aquaculture and capture fisheries) increased sixfold between

1986 and 2012 (Fig. S4). The country’s per capita fish supply reached 43.6 kg in 2012—almost

twice the global average—and is expected to climb to 50 kg by 2030 (1, 2). Virtually all of the

growth is from the aquaculture sector. Freshwater fish species accounted for 58% of total

aquaculture production (excluding seaweeds) in China in 2012, with the rapidly growing

mariculture industry (mollusks, crustaceans, and marine fishes) contributing the balance.

The production of farmed shrimp has been one of the most robust subsectors of China’s

aquaculture sector in recent decades and has led to rapidly rising demand for shrimp within the

country. Accordingly, China’s shrimp export volume has stagnated since 2008 (only 15% of its

penaeid shrimp output is currently exported), whereas its shrimp import volume has risen by

47% (30). China’s farmed tilapia exports remain robust (accounting for 70% of production), but

tilapia could follow the path of shrimp over time and become increasingly a product for its

domestic consumption (11, 30). Overall, trends in domestic consumption portend a major shift in

China’s trade position in fish products, from the world’s leading fish exporter to a net importer in

the coming decades.

Trade

China is the world’s largest fish exporter, processer, and re-exporter, and its imports are rising

rapidly as domestic fish consumption grows. The country’s trade volume in fish products more

than doubled between 2000 and 2013, from 4 million metric tons (mmt) to 8.1 mmt, whereas the

value of fish trade increased fivefold (1) (Fig. S5). China’s trade surplus in fish (i.e., net trade

balance) has increased about sixfold from US$1.98 billion in 2000 to US$11.7 billion in 2013

(1).

China has dominated the fish export market since 2002, contributing >12% of the global total

(worth over $19 billion) in 2013 (3). Despite the slow recovery in the global economy,

increasing nontariff trade barriers among its trade partners, and rising production and

transportation costs, China’s fish exports have been rising steadily during the past decade. Export

value increased fivefold between 2000 and 2013, from US$3.8 billion to US$20.3 billion,

whereas the volume of fish exports rose from 1.5 to 3.9 mmt (31). Such strong growth in exports

was due mainly to the disproportionate increase in aquaculture exports (8), which now account

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for more than half of the total. The leading export species have been shrimp, followed by tilapia,

molluscs, eels, crawfish, and croakers (31). Fish fillets remains the largest export category over

the last decade, accounting for 25% of total fish exports by value, and exports of value-added

products, such as surimi and caviar, have also grown substantially. The main destinations for

China’s fish exports include Japan, the United States, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations

(ASEAN), Europe, and South Korea with a collective market share of 68% in 2013 (31). China’s

re-exports of fish, consisting of domestically processed products from imported raw fish (e.g.,

fish fillets and value-added products, such as surimi and caviar), have also continued to grow.

Given these trends, it is not surprising that China’s import value of fish also increased fivefold

between 2000 and 2013. China is now the third largest fish importer in the global market (3).

The value of its fish imports increased fivefold between 2000 and 2013, reaching US$8.6 billion

at the end of the period, and the volume of fish imports reached 4.2 mmt (31). Russia and the

United States remain China’s main suppliers of fish, accounting for 32% (US$2.7 billion) of total

imports by value in 2013 (31). More than half of fish imports are frozen whole fish, including

mainly cod, salmon, herrings, squid, large head hairtail, plaice, and flatfish (Fig. S6). The

majority, about 60 to 75%, of the imported frozen raw fish is processed and then re-exported (2).

In addition, China has become the world’s largest importer of fishmeal (Figs. S7 and S8). The

country imports around 1.2 mmt of fishmeal annually (mainly from Peru, the United States, and

Chile), accounting for ~30% of global fishmeal imports (3). China’s farmed carp, tilapia, and

shrimp systems alone consumed about 1 mmt of fishmeal in 2012 (as noted in the Policy Forum

Table), accounting for 76% of the country’s total fishmeal demand for aquaculture, and ~20% of

global fishmeal production. The amount of fishmeal, domestically produced and imported,

consumed by these three systems is equivalent to 5.1 mmt of live-weight forage fish. When the

wet-weight fish equivalent of fishmeal imports are calculated into China’s net fish trade, the

country actually becomes a net fish importer globally (authors’ calculations).

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Supplemental Note 2: Government Directives and Policies

China has been farming fish for hundreds of years, but the government’s strong focus on

aquaculture within its fisheries policy dates to the 1970s when it became clear that the

country’s capture fisheries were seriously overexploited and its domestic fish demand

was steadily increasing (32). The dominance of aquaculture in policy was formally

established in the first promulgated Fisheries Law in 1986 (33, 34). Although there is no

legal definition of aquaculture in China (35), it refers to the farming of fish, crustaceans,

molluscs, and aquatic plants in enclosures, and it includes both marine and freshwater

systems in coastal and terrestrial regions (2). The government supports aquaculture

through investments in a variety of genetic improvements (e.g., selective breeding for

fish growth and pathogen resistance) and through subsidies to help producers replace

outdated equipment, increase the scale of their aquaculture systems, adopt new

technologies, and insure themselves against extreme weather events and other risks (2).

The Chinese government aims to expand and improve domestic aquaculture through a

mix of public- and private-sector initiatives.

Since the first Fisheries Law was established, the general policy for Chinese fisheries has

been adjusted to “aquaculture oriented,” emphasizing “major efforts devoted to

aquaculture in freshwater and marine water, protection and reasonable utilization of

inshore resources, and active development of mid-water and deep-sea fishery” (2).

Government policies and directives designed to boost production in both distant-water

fisheries and aquaculture reflect the underlying goal of enhancing employment, incomes,

and export revenues in the face of its declining domestic fisheries. China has historically

had the world’s largest labor force employed in the fishing sector and among the highest

rates of capture-fishing subsidies (3, 36). With its recent emphasis on distant-water

fishing, China currently operates the largest international fishing fleet, with vessels in

more than 80 exclusive economic zones (EEZs) and foreign territories (4–6).

Policies governing China’s fish production (both farmed and capture) are articulated in

two main documents: the country’s annual “No. 1 Central Document,” which provides a

vision for achieving food security in China, and its Five-Year Plan for Fisheries, which

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provides a detailed logistical, legislative, and fiscal plan that includes development

principles and goals, regional priorities, budget outlays, and so forth.

There have been eleven No. 1 Central Documents starting in 2004, each with its own set

of priorities for food security, agricultural development, and fisheries production

(http://www.moa.gov.cn/ztzl/yhwj2014/; http://english.agri.gov.cn/hottopics/cpc/). For

example, the goal of the 2010 No. 1 Central Document was to promote long-distance

capture fisheries, build aquaculture demonstration farms, and increase the scale of

aquaculture farms. Capture fisheries and aquaculture were not a focus of the 2011 No. 1

Central Document, but the 2012 document set several goals, such as starting trials on the

ecological restoration of aquaculture environments, continuing to implement the artificial

propagation and release of fish, and launching fisheries insurance trials. In 2013, the No.1

Central Document goal was to “promote long distance capture fisheries” and “build

standard aquaculture farms”, and in 2014, it aimed to establish long-term mechanisms for

the sustainable development of agriculture through the ecological restoration of the

aquaculture environment. The 2014 document also articulated a vision to control capture

fisheries and fishing efforts and to implement continued subsidies for the artificial

propagation and release of fish.

Although the No. 1 Central Document is important for setting the vision for policy each

year, the Five-Year Plan for Fisheries provides the nuts and bolts of policy. China’s 12th

Five-Year Plan for Fisheries (2011–2015) established a policy framework to meet several

specific targets, including a goal for increasing seafood production from 53.7 mmt in

2010 to >60 mmt by 2015, with 75% contributed by aquaculture; a goal of raising the

seafood processing rate from 35% in 2010 to 40% by 2015; a green development

initiative with an emphasis on balancing growth in seafood production with improved

environmental protection; and a goal to achieve food-safety targets for 98% of its seafood

products. For further details about China’s 12th Five-Year Plan for fisheries sector, see:

http://www.moa.gov.cn/zwllm/ghjh/201110/t20111017_2357716.htm.

China’s State Council provides the framework for achieving the goals of the Five-Year

Plan for fisheries. In the State Council meeting in 2013, it was agreed that China is a

major maritime country, and marine fisheries are an important part of the country’s

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modern agriculture and marine economy (37). The State Council also stated that the

sustained and healthy development of marine fisheries is of great significance to the

effectively protection of aquatic fish supplies and is important for increasing incomes of

fishermen, improving economic development in coastal areas, and safeguarding China's

maritime rights and interests. Specific policy actions based on this meeting included

efforts to control offshore farming density and to exploit offshore aquaculture and

intensive aquaculture. Policies were also implemented to continue to expand offshore and

deep-sea fisheries aggressively and to develop processing and distribution of marine

products vigorously.

In addition to supporting fish production, the Chinese government uses policy to enhance

fish trade. An export tax rebate policy has been in place since 1985 to eliminate double

taxation on exported goods and, therefore, to promote export trade (38). The export tax

rebate allows refunds or exemption of value-added tax (VAT) and consumption tax

levied during production, distribution, and sales of exported goods. In the case of fish, the

VAT rate is 0% if imports are targeted for re-exports.

Although China has achieved remarkable progress in achieving food security during the

past half-century, many people in the country still face serious nutritional deficits (39). It

is thus in the interest of the Chinese government to promote food security in terms of

protein and micronutrient consumption, and aquaculture and marine fisheries will play a

crucial role in this process. In the “Outline of the Program for Food and Nutrition

Development in China (2014–2020)” by the State Council (40), the aim of per capita

seafood consumption in 2020 was set at 18 kg, which is much higher than that in 2012

[per capita seafood consumption was 15.19 kg in urban areas and 5.36 kg in rural areas,

the national average was only 10.53 kg in 2012 (41)]. Because the Chinese government

remains primarily focused on staple food output, however, efforts to enhance fish

supplies cannot come at the expense of staple crop production (e.g., rice, wheat, maize).

The majority of China’s fish supplies for domestic production come from terrestrial

aquaculture ponds (mainly carp systems). In an effort to minimize the trade-offs between

agriculture and aquaculture production, the government has implemented a set of land

and water policies:

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Land management law

To ensure the nation’s food security, China’s central government requires a

minimum threshold of 120 million hectares of arable land for agricultural uses, and

digging new ponds for the expansion of aquaculture in staple farmland regions is

strictly prohibited (http://www.gov.cn/banshi/2005-05/26/content_989_2.htm). This

law reflects the country’s land scarcity in the face of rising population and food

demand. In 2012, China’s population reached 1.35 billion—roughly one-fifth of the

global population—yet the country contains only 9% of the world’s arable land and

6.5% of the world’s freshwater resources.

Water policy

Similar to land (above), the allocation of freshwater resources for terrestrial pond

aquaculture is limited in many areas of the country, and in recent years, most

medium-sized reservoirs and lakes have been reserved for drinking water for nearby

cities and crop production. Most aquaculture cage and pen systems have been

removed or highly restricted in these reservoirs and lakes for health and sanitation

reasons. Mariculture is being promoted in China owing to rising constraints on

freshwater quantity and quality in many parts of the country (2).

Because of the constraints on land and freshwater, the intensification of the

aquaculture industry will need to become more environmentally friendly in the

future—an aim articulated in the No. 1 Central Document (above). Given its scale,

China’s aquaculture sector will also have to curtail the demand for fishmeal to

relieve pressure on global wild fisheries. Supported by China’s “Circular Economic

Promotion Law,” one promising solution would be extensive recycling of fish-

processing wastes.

Circular economy promotion law

The use of fish-processing wastes for aquafeeds is aligned with China’s “Circular

Economic Promotion Law,” According to this 2009 law, the Chinese government

offers tax preferences to industrial activities promoting the development of the

circular economy—the recycling of energy, water, and waste products—and uses tax

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measures to encourage the import of water-saving technologies. Specific policy

measures are formulated by the public finance department and the tax department

under the State Council.

This Circular Economy Law potentially provides the “carrot” for increasing the use

of fish-processing wastes and thus reducing the need for wild fish in aquaculture

feeds. However, there is not a good policy “stick” in China, such as strict regulations

on illegal coastal fishing and illegal net gear, to ensure that the catch of trash fish

will be minimized or that coastal fisheries will be protected. Although laws exist to

protect coastal fisheries in China, enforcement of these laws is generally poor (42).

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Supplemental Note 3: Dependence on marine resources

Targeted fisheries

During the past decade, China’s annual fishmeal imports have ranged from about 1.0 to 1.5 mmt

(average 1.2 mmt) (3, 31, 43, 44). Peruvian anchovy is the world’s largest targeted fishery at

around 7.8 mmt per year (ranging between 4.2 and 10.7 mmt because of El Niño events and

fishing closures in 2002–2011), and China is the largest importer of Peruvian fishmeal (24).

China also imports fishmeal reduced mainly from sardines, herring, and menhaden fisheries.

Most of these reduction fisheries are fully or overexploited (Table S1).

Domestic fishmeal production from China’s targeted forage fisheries has been limited by major

declines in some stocks and is estimated at only 0.3 to 0.4 mmt per year (11, 45, 46). China’s

main reduction fisheries—including the Japanese anchovy, skinnycheek lanternfish, and jack

mackerel fisheries—are fully to over-exploited, whereas others, such as Pacific herring, are

moderately exploited but periodically shift to a low-productivity regime with interannual climate

variation and overfishing (6, 47) (Table S1).

Nontargeted fisheries

Virtually all of the fish hauled out of the ocean by Chinese vessels are put to economic use, first

for human consumption and then for feeds and other purposes. Discards in China’s fisheries are

negligible (0.5% of total catch versus ~8% for global fish catch) (48). “Trash fish” in China thus

refers only to fish of low economic value used in fish and/or livestock feeds (unfit for direct

human consumption), whereas “low-value fish” generally indicates fish consumed directly by

humans (16). Converting trash fish to a quality suitable for human consumption would increase

the total costs owing to value-adding process and extra transportation and preservation needs

(17). Although the price of trash fish increased from less than $0.2 per kg before 2005 to $0.3 to

$0.4 per kg in 2013, it is still relatively inexpensive compared with other protein sources (16).

Direct and indirect use of perishable trash fish as feeds is therefore still economically viable in

China. In addition, common forms of trash fish, such as that derived from Pacific sandlance, are

often used to improve the appearance and meat quality of farmed carnivorous species (17).

Numerous fish species found in China’s trash fish and their stock status are listed in Table S2.

This list was compiled from information gathered by the authors of this paper (especially

Leadbitter), and from other reviews and studies in the literature as indicated in the table. It is

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clear from Table S2 that little is known about the stock status of many of the fish captured in

nontargeted fisheries in China. Assessing impacts of trash fish use on marine ecosystems will

therefore require a broader scientific effort to identify species composition by locality and season

(6, 17).

Ratio of fish-in to fish-out

One measure of aquaculture’s dependence on fish resources is the ratio of fish-in to fish-out

(FIFO); FIFO provides a rough gauge of fish inputs used in fish feeds, but it does not identify the

source of fish for feeds (i.e., targeted forage fisheries, nontargeted multispecies fisheries, by-

catch, or fish-processing wastes). In the case of China’s main aquaculture systems, FIFO is

estimated to be 0.18 for non–filter-feeding carps, 0.39 for tilapia, and 1.5 for penaeid shrimp.

These values are comparable to the global estimates for FIFO for these species reported by

Tacon and Metian (28) and substantially lower than earlier estimates dating back 10 to 15 years

(49, 50), which indicates improved feed efficiencies over time. It is likely that these FIFO ratios

will decline in the future with improved feeding practices and feed efficiencies, but the aggregate

use of fish for aquaculture feeds in China is still expected to grow as the culture of high-valued

species reliant on feeds expands.

Impacts on global marine ecosystems

To secure fishmeal supply to China’s ever-growing market, Chinese companies have

increasingly purchased fishing rights in foreign countries (4, 8). Precise information on these

transactions is difficult to obtain, but many news stories suggest a trend in this direction. For

example, see:

• http://www.undercurrentnews.com/2014/01/14/china-fishery-could-buy-more-in-peru-as-

diamante-owners-still-looking-for-exit/

• http://www.marketwatch.com/story/china-fishery-bids-556m-for-copeinca-2013-02-26

• http://sbr.com.sg/shipping-marine/more-news/china-fishery-becomes-perus-sixth-largest-

fishmeal-company

http://www.4-traders.com/news/China-Fishery-acquires-a-fishmeal-plant-and-further-increases-fishing-quota-in-Peru--13881959/.

China’s aquaculture sector does not consistently follow international mandates on responsible

fishmeal and/or oil sourcing. These guidelines were developed jointly by the Aquaculture

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Stewardship Council (www.asc-aqua.org), the Global Aquaculture Alliance

(www.gaalliance.org), and GlobalGAP (Global Good Agricultural Practices,

www.globalgap.org) in 2013. The mandates include traceability of fishmeal and/or oil inputs to

species and country of origin; banning the use of endangered species and fish sourced from

illegal, unreported, and unregulated fishing for feeds; and preference for commercial feed

manufactures that source fishmeal and/or oil from certified “sustainable” aquaculture and capture

fisheries operations, including products derived from fish-processing wastes.

Overall, China has a relatively low ranking in ocean health, and the demands that aquaculture

places on the marine environment contribute to its poor performance. An ocean health index tool

was developed recently to evaluate the condition of marine ecosystems from biological, physical,

economic, and social dimensions and to assess how sustainably each country or region is using

the ocean (51). China received an overall index score of 58 out of 100 on its ocean health within

EEZ boundaries in 2013 (ranking 161 out of 220 countries) (http://www.oceanhealthindex.org).

China’s ranking is below the global average (index = 65), which indicates poor management of

the index’s public goals and substantial room for improvement in the future.

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Supplemental Note 4: Potential for wastes as feed

China faces two main constraints in transitioning toward widespread use of fish-processing

wastes—and away from wild fish inputs—as a key ingredient in fish feeds. These constraints

include (i) nutritional inferiority issues of waste-derived feeds for species fed in aquaculture

systems and (ii) food-safety issues for humans consuming farmed species reliant on commercial

feeds.

Nutritional constraints

Numerous papers have indicated the nutritional quality of waste-derived fishmeal depends on the

source of raw materials and processing technology used (23, 25, 52–55). Some fisheries by-catch

or by-product (e.g. Alaskan Pollock by-product) meals may have equal nutritional quality as that

of the highest-graded fishmeal. However, because of the removal of structural protein to produce

fish fillets, fishmeal derived from processing wastes usually has a lower protein content and

higher ash (bone) content than conventional whole-fish meal (23). In addition, key fatty acids

might be low in fishmeal derived from wastes of freshwater species. Although deboning

technology has been investigated as a way to reduce ash content in raw materials (56), the

nutritional quality of fishmeal obtained from processing wastes still tends to be inferior to

conventional fishmeal.

Fish processing has long been a growth industry in China and has been fueled by its fish export

and re-export industry. In the past, the industry has been supported by the availability of cheap

labor and a rapidly growing aquaculture industry. The number of aquatic processing facilities

increased from 6900 in 2000 to >9700 in 2012 (1). During the same period, the country’s total

processing capacity increased from 9 to 26 mmt (1). The future of the processing industry is less

certain, however, because of rising wage rates in China and increasing competition in the fish-

processing and re-export market by other Southeast Asian countries.

Given the traditional preference for fresh whole fish by Chinese consumers, the majority of

processed fish products are destined for export (or re-export), but there is a growing domestic

demand for convenience fish products. Currently, one-third of fish output available for

consumption in China is processed, and the portion is targeted to reach 40% by 2015 according

to China’s 12th Five-Year Plan.

16

Food-safety constraints

In China, all fishmeal used in feeds is required to meet the national fishmeal standard SC/T

3501-1996 (57), however the enforcement of this standard is not necessarily strict or uniform

throughout the country. There are no specific food-safety requirements within the standards set

for feeds. For example, no food-safety requirements are specified for using animal or fisheries

by-products in feeds by “Regulation on the Management of Feeds and Feed Additives” (58),

hygienical standard for feeds “GB 13078-2001” (59), fishery feed safety limits “NY5072-2002”

(60), or the updated fishmeal standard “GB/T 19164-2003” (61).

Analysis of processing wastes for fishmeal and fish oil production

The Policy Forum Figure shows the results of our analysis on the estimated potential of fishmeal

and fish oil production from China’s fish-processing industry. In this analysis, we estimate that

in 2012, 12.4 mmt of finfish were used as raw materials for processing. We assume a median

production yield for whole raw fish of 40% and a 2% flesh loss due to spoilage and other

technical reasons. Because there is wide uncertainty in the waste ratio (percentage of waste

derived from whole fish, ranging from 30 to 70%) and the market allocation of fish-processing

waste (the share of processing by-products used in fishmeal and fish oil production, ranging from

50 to 80%), a Monte Carlo analysis was conducted.

Monte Carlo results

Scenario 1: waste from processing finfish only

Our results indicated that averagely about 0.65 mmt of fishmeal (95% confidence interval: 0.39–

0.92 mmt) and 0.21 mmt of fish oil (95% confidence interval: 0.09–0.22 mmt) could be gained

from China’s finfish processing (Table S3).

Scenario 2: waste from processing both finfish and crustaceans

Our results indicated that averagely about 0.9 mmt of fishmeal (95% confidence interval: 0.68–

1.15 mmt) and 0.22 mmt of fish oil (95% confidence interval: 0.16–0.27 mmt) could be gained

from processing both finfish and crustaceans (Table S3).

17

Figure S1. Connections between the Chinese aquaculture sector and global fish resources.

Thick blue lines refer to main flows of fish in and out of China. Thin blue lines indicate minor

flows. Hatched black lines refer to other flows with indirect connections to China’s fish industry

(not included in this study). China’s aquaculture sector uses fish inputs for feeds from: (i)

domestic capture fisheries (marine fish nei, by-catch and poor quality and/or spoiled fish); (ii)

fishmeal and oil produced domestically or imported, which rely on capture fisheries (reduction

fisheries and marine fish nei) and wild or farmed fish–processing by-products; and (iii) fish parts

from processing wastes. The aquaculture industry provides fish for human consumption and fish-

processing wastes for feed production. By-products from wild and farmed processing operations

are also used to manufacture various commodities such as surimi for the global market.

18

Figure S2. Per capita aquatic consumption trends compared to other meat consumption in China (41)

Figure S3. Estimates for China’s per capita seafood consumption versus supply (1, 41, 62)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40kg

per

cap

ita Pork, Poultry, Beef and Mutton

(Urban)

Aquatic Products (Urban)

Pork, Poultry, Beef and Mutton(Rural)

Aquatic Products (Rural)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

kg p

er c

apita

National AverageSeafood Consumption(in-home consumption)

National AverageSeafood Consumption(in-home plus out-of-home consumption)Per Capita SeafoodSupply - China FisheriesYearbook

Per Capita SeafoodSupply - FAOSTAT

19

Figure S4. China’s total aquatic production (1)

Figure S5. China’s fish trade by value from 2000-2013 (1, 31)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Mill

ion

met

ric

tons

Freshwater aquaculture

Mariculture

Domestic marine fishery

Freshwater fishery

Distant-water fishery

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

US$

bill

ion

Export Import

20

Figure S6. China’s imports of frozen whole fish (27)

-

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

tons

Frozen whole fish Salmon Cod Herrings

21

Figure S7. The balance of global fishmeal trade in 2012 (unit: metric tons, MT) (27, 63)

22

Figure S8. China’s fishmeal imports (64)

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

mill

ion

met

ric

tons

23

Table S1. Sourcing wild fish for fish feeds in China. Stock status information was from (3, 13,

18, 47, 65). Moderately exploited: operated at a lower level than optimal yield, with potential for

expansion in total production; Fully exploited: operated at or close to its optimum yield level,

with no potential for further expansion; Overexploited: exploited at a higher level than the

maximum sustainable yield, with high risk of stock depletion; Depleted: catches are far below

historical levels.

Source category Main species Scientific name Stock status*

Domestic:

Targeted

fisheries

Japanese anchovy Engraulis japonicus Overexploited

Skinnycheek lanternfish Benthosema pterotum Fully exploited

Jack mackerel Trachurus japonicus Fully exploited Pacific herring* Clupea pallasii Moderately exploited

Nontargeted

fisheries

Large head hairtail Trichiurus lepturus Overexploited

Pacific sandlance Ammodytes personatus Moderately exploited Japanese scad Decapterus maruadsi Overexploited

Slender lizardfish Saurida elongate Overexploited

Indian anchovy Stolephorus indicus Overexploited

Chub mackerel Scomer japonicus Fully exploited

Imports:

Targeted

fisheries

Peruvian anchovy Engraulis ringens Overexploited

Chilean jack mackerel Trachurus murphyi Overexploited

Chub mackerel Scomer japonicus Fully exploited

Gulf menhaden Brevoortia patronus Fully exploited

Atlantic menhaden Brevoortia tyrannus Fully exploited

Atlantic herring Clupea harengus Fully exploited

Capelin Mallotus villosus Fully exploited

Blue whiting Micromesistius poutassou Fully exploited

Fish-processing

by-products†

Alaska pollock Theragra chalcogramma Fully exploited

Atlantic cod Gadus morhua Fully exploited

Skipjack tuna Katsuwonus pelamis Fully exploited *Pacific herring (Yellow Sea stock) is a species with apparent regime shifts in productivity, that is, long-term change

in abundance. High abundances appeared in 1970s and it is now in low-productivity regime. †Fish-processing by-

products are not imported directly, but derived from processing imported wild-caught whole groundfish such as

pollock. Domestic fish by-products are not included in the table since they are mainly from farmed fish such as

tilapia.

24

Table S2. Numerous trash fish species found in China and their stock status (17, 18, 47, 66)

Fish species Scientific name Stock status Region

Bald glassy Ambassis gymnocephalus Unknown South China Sea

Beka squid Loligo beka Unknown East China Sea Belenger's croaker Johnius belengerii Unknown East China Sea Bladder moon snail Polinices didyma Unknown East China Sea Bluespotted

stargazer Xenocephalus elongatus Unknown East China Sea

Bombay-duck Harpadon nehereus Moderately fully exploited East China Sea

Brownback trevally Carangoides praeustus Unknown South China Sea

Butterfly bobtail squid Sepiola birostrata Unknown East China Sea

Chinese ditch prawn Palaemon gravieri Unknown East China Sea

Commerson's anchovy

Stolephorus commersonnii Overexploited East China Sea

Common frog shell Bufonaria rana Unknown East China Sea Common hairfin

anchovy Setipinna tenuifilis Unknown Yellow and Bohai Seas; East China Sea

Common octopus Octopus vulgare Depleted East China Sea Crocodile flathead Cociella crocodila Unknown East China Sea Deep pugnose

ponyfish Secutor ruconius Unknown South China Sea

Dotted gizzard shad Konosirus punctatus Unknown South China Sea Fat greenling Hexagrammos otakii Unknown East China Sea

Finespot goby Chaeturichthys stigmatias Unknown East China Sea

Firefly lanternfish Hygophum proximum Unknown East China Sea Forksnout searobin Lepidotrigla alata Unknown East China Sea Gaper Tresus Keenae Unknown East China Sea Gray stingfish Minous monodactylus Unknown East China Sea Gunther's lizard

fish Synodus kaianus Unknown South China Sea

Hardyhead silverside

Atherinomorus lacunosus Unknown South China Sea

Indian anchovy Stolephorus indicus Overexploited East China Sea

Indian perch Apogonichthys lineatus Unknown East China Sea

Japanese bonnet Phalium bisulcatum Unknown East China Sea Japanese scad Decapterus maruadsi Overexploited South China Sea

25

Japanese silver biddy Gerres equulus Unknown South China Sea

Japanese stone crab Charybdis Japonica Unknown East China Sea Javelin goby Synechogobius hasta Unknown East China Sea Kammal thryssa Thrissa kammalensis Unknown South China Sea Keeled mullet Liza carinata Unknown South China Sea Kobi cuttlefish Sepia kobiensis Hoyle Unknown East China Sea Largehead hairtail Trichiurus lepturus Overexploited South China Sea Largescale

lizardfish Saurida brasiliensis Overexploited East China Sea

Longtail silver biddy Gerres longirostris Unknown South China Sea

Macclelland's codlet

Bregmaceros mcclellandi Unknown East China Sea

Mackerel scad Decapterus macasellus Unknown East China Sea

Mantis shrimp Oratosquilla oratoria Unknown East China Sea Mimika bobtail

squid Euprymna morsei Unknown East China Sea

Moonfish Mene maculate Unknown South China Sea Offshore ponyfish Equulites rivulatus Unknown East and South China Seas

Orangefin ponyfish Photopectoralis bindus Unknown South China Sea

Oriental flying gurnard

Dactylopterus orientalis Unknown East China Sea

Osbeck's grenadier anchovy Coilia mystus Unknown East China Sea

Pacific mackerel Scomber japonicus Unknown South China Sea

Pacific sandlance Ammodytes personatus Unknown East China Sea

Pinkgray goby Amblychaeturichthys hexanema Unknown East China Sea

Red eelgoby Caragobius rubristriatus Unknown East China Sea

Robust tonguefish Cynoglossus robustus Unknown East China Sea Sand crab Ovalipes punctatus Unknown East China Sea Scaly hairfin

anchovy Setiponna taty Unknown East China Sea

Shortheaded tonguesole Cynoglossus kopsii Unknown East China Sea

Shortnose ponyfish Leiognathus brevirostris Unknown South China Sea

Silver jewfish Argyrosomus argentatus Overexploited East and South China Seas

Skinnycheek Benthosema pterotum Unknown East China Sea

26

lanternfish Slender lizardfish Saurida elongate Overexploited East China Sea Small yellow

croaker Larimichthys polyactis Unknown East China Sea

Spear dragonet Callionymus huguenini Unknown East China Sea

Spinyhead croaker Collichthys lucidus Unknown East China Sea

Spotfin cardinalfish Apogonichthys carinatus Unknown East China Sea

Spotted velvetfish Erisphex pottii Unknown East China Sea Striated frogfish Antennarius striatus Unknown East China Sea

Swordtip squid Loligo edulis Moderately exploited East and South China Seas

Toothpony Gazza minuta Unknown South China Sea Veined rapa whelk Rapana venosa Unknown East China Sea Wart perch Psenopsis anomala Unknown East China Sea Whipfin silver

biddy Gerres filamentosus Unknown South China Sea

White croaker Genyonemus lineatus Unknown East China Sea Whitespotted

conger Conger myriaster Unknown East China Sea

27

Table S3. China’s potential in recycling fish-processing wastes for feeds

Statistics Potential fishmeal yield

(tons)

Potential fish oil yield

(tons)

Scenario 1

Base case* 793,821 189,005

Mean† 652,557 155,371

2.5th percentile† 394,363 93,896

50th percentile (median)† 648,340 154,367

97.5th percentile† 925,235 220,294

Standard deviation† 139,442 33,200

Minimum† 278,971 66,422

Maximum† 1,049,655 249,918

Scenario 2

Base case* 970,845 231,153

Mean† 901,487 214,640

2.5th percentile† 676,039 160,962

50th percentile (median)† 898,381 213,900

97.5th percentile† 1,150,601 273,953

Standard deviation† 131,570 31,326

Minimum† 591,750 140,893

Maximum† 1,273,511 162,324 *Base case: results without uncertainty analysis. †Results calculated from 50,000 Monte Carlo simulations.

28

Table S4. Fishmeal and fish oil potential derived from processing wastes in China's finfish export sector (year 2011). Conversion factor (CF) is used to convert product weight to live weight (live weight = product weight × CF). Waste ratio: ratio of waste after processing (67–69). Export data from (24).

Product Group Product types

Conversion factor

Waste ratio

Export (tons)

Waste (tons)

Fish, frozen, nei fish frozen whole 1.00 0.00 354,939 0 Sardines, sardinellas, brisling or sprats, frozen fish frozen whole 1.00 0.00 126,926 0

Mackerels nei, frozen fish frozen whole 1.00 0.00 126,452 0 Tilapias, frozen fish frozen whole 1.00 0.00 107,600 0

Fish live, nei fish live, fresh, or chilled 1.00 0.00 72,665 0

Herrings nei, frozen fish frozen whole 1.00 0.00 72,492 0 Skipjack tuna, frozen fish frozen whole 1.00 0.00 40,257 0 Croakers, frozen fish frozen whole 1.00 0.00 39,975 0 Fish, fresh, or chilled, nei fish live, fresh, or

chilled 1.00 0.00 27,643 0

Miscellaneous pelagic fishes, nei, frozen fish frozen whole 1.00 0.00 19,799 0

Plaices, frozen, nei fish frozen whole 1.00 0.00 17,164 0 Hairtails, frozen fish frozen whole 1.00 0.00 15,375 0 Cods nei, frozen fish frozen whole 1.00 0.00 11,642 0 Octopus, live, fresh, or chilled fish live, fresh, or

chilled 1.00 0.00 10,539 0

Fish waste, nei fish Waste 1.00 0.00 9,494 0 Yellowfin tuna, frozen, nei fish frozen whole 1.00 0.00 6,577 0

Caviar and caviar substitutes fish caviar 1.00 0.00 6,194 0

Eels and elvers live fish live, fresh, or chilled 1.00 0.00 5,638 0

Bigeye tuna, frozen, nei fish frozen whole 1.00 0.00 5,023 0 Croakers, fresh, or chilled fish live, fresh, or

chilled 1.00 0.00 3,496 0

Greenland halibut, frozen fish frozen whole 1.00 0.00 3,279 0

Pacific salmon, frozen, nei fish frozen whole 1.00 0.00 3,049 0

Fish for culture incl. ova, fingerlings etc. fish live, fresh, or

chilled 1.00 0.00 2,965 0

Tunas nei, frozen fish frozen whole 1.00 0.00 2,649 0

Carps live fish live, fresh, or chilled 1.00 0.00 2,302 0

Albacore (=Longfin tuna), frozen, nei fish frozen whole 1.00 0.00 2,019 0

29

Livers, roes, milt, frozen fish livers/roes 1.00 0.00 2,018 0 Sharks nei, frozen fish frozen whole 1.00 0.00 1,812 0 Eels, frozen fish frozen whole 1.00 0.00 1,755 0 Pomfrets, ocean breams, fresh, or chilled fish live, fresh, or

chilled 1.00 0.00 1,430 0

Miscellaneous demersal fishes,nei, fresh, or chilled

fish live, fresh, or chilled 1.00 0.00 1,029 0

Swordfish, frozen fish frozen whole 1.00 0.00 912 0 Flatfishes nei, frozen fish frozen whole 1.00 0.00 905 0 Livers, roes, milt, fresh, or chilled, nei fish livers/roes 1.00 0.00 870 0

Common sole, frozen fish frozen whole 1.00 0.00 853 0 Cods, fresh, or chilled, nei fish live, fresh, or

chilled 1.00 0.00 734 0

Ornamental fish nei fish live, fresh, or chilled 1.00 0.00 571 0

Atlantic(Thunnus thynnus)and Pacific(Thunnus orientalis)bluefin tuna, frozen

fish frozen whole 1.00 0.00 249 0

Toothfish (Dissostichus spp.), frozen fish frozen whole 1.00 0.00 223 0

Saltwater fish nei, live fish live, fresh, or chilled 1.00 0.00 142 0

Puffer, fresh, or chilled fish live, fresh, or chilled 1.00 0.00 114 0

Salmonoids, frozen fish frozen whole 1.00 0.00 84 0

Eels, fresh, or chilled fish live, fresh, or chilled 1.00 0.00 27 0

Atlantic salmon and Danube salmon, frozen fish frozen whole 1.00 0.00 25 0

Hake nei, frozen fish frozen whole 1.00 0.00 24 0 Trouts and chars, frozen fish frozen whole 1.00 0.00 13 0 Halibuts nei, frozen fish frozen whole 1.00 0.00 12 0 Flatfishes, fresh, or chilled, nei fish live, fresh, or

chilled 1.00 0.00 5 0

Mackerels, nei, fresh, or chilled fish live, fresh, or

chilled 1.00 0.00 5 0

Sardines, sardinellas, brisling or sprats, fresh, or chilled

fish live, fresh, or chilled 1.00 0.00 1 0

Albacore (=Longfin tuna), fresh, or chilled fish live, fresh, or

chilled 1.00 0.00 0 0

Bigeye tuna, fresh, or chilled fish live, fresh, or

chilled 1.00 0.00 0 0

Common sole, fresh, or fish live, fresh, or 1.00 0.00 0 0

30

chilled chilled Haddock, fresh, or chilled fish live, fresh, or

chilled 1.00 0.00 0 0

Haddock, frozen fish frozen whole 1.00 0.00 0 0 Halibuts, fresh, or chilled, nei fish live, fresh, or

chilled 1.00 0.00 0 0

Herrings, fresh, or chilled, nei fish live, fresh, or

chilled 1.00 0.00 0 0

Plaices, fresh, or chilled, nei fish live, fresh, or

chilled 1.00 0.00 0 0

Saithe (=Pollock), fresh, or chilled fish live, fresh, or

chilled 1.00 0.00 0 0

Saithe (=Pollock), frozen fish frozen whole 1.00 0.00 0 0 Salmonoids, fresh, or chilled, nei fish live, fresh, or

chilled 1.00 0.00 0 0

Salmons, fresh, or chilled, nei fish live, fresh, or

chilled 1.00 0.00 0 0

Sharks nei, fresh, or chilled fish live, fresh, or

chilled 1.00 0.00 0 0

Skipjack tuna, fresh, or chilled fish live, fresh, or

chilled 1.00 0.00 0 0

Sockeye salmon (red salmon)(Oncorhynchus nerka), frozen

fish frozen whole 1.00 0.00 0 0

Tilapias, fresh, or chilled fish live, fresh, or chilled 1.00 0.00 0 0

Trouts and chars live fish live, fresh, or chilled 1.00 0.00 0 0

Trouts and chars, fresh, or chilled fish live, fresh, or

chilled 1.00 0.00 0 0

Tunas, fresh, or chilled, nei fish live, fresh, or

chilled 1.00 0.00 0 0

Yellowfin tuna, fresh, or chilled fish live, fresh, or

chilled 1.00 0.00 0 0

Herring, salted or in brine fish dried/salted/

smoked 1.20 0.00 0 0

Anchovies, salted or in brine fish dried/salted/

smoked 1.33 0.00 435 0

Herrings nei, smoked fish dried/salted/ smoked 1.67 0.00 3 0

Miscellaneous demersal fishes, salted or in brine, nei

fish dried/salted/ smoked 1.60 0.00 16 0

Salmons, smoked fish dried/salted/ smoked 1.92 0.00 115 0

Herring roes, cured fish roes 0.00 0.00 0 0 Catfish fillets, frozen fish fillets 2.86 0.65 5,940 11,048 Fish fillets, frozen, nei fish fillets 2.45 0.59 864,168 1,253,044 Miscellaneous dried fish, fish dried/salted/ 4.00 0.00 12,896 0

31

whether or not salted, nei

smoked

Fish fillets, dried, salted or in brine fish dried/salted/

smoked 4.00 0.59 39,825 94,280

Fish fillets, fresh, or chilled, nei fish fillets 2.45 0.59 3,655 5,283

Toothfish (Dissostichus spp.), fillets, frozen fish fillets 2.45 0.59 183 265

Toothfish (Dissostichus spp.), meat, frozen fish fish meat 1.94 0.00 116 0

Fish minced nei, prepared or preserved fish fish minced 1.44 0.00 131,222 0

Fish nei, prepared or preserved, not minced fish prepared or

preserved 1.44 0.48 105,597 72,862

Fish minced nei, in airtight containers prepared or preserved

fish fish minced 1.44 0.00 31,912 0

Fish nei, smoked fish dried/salted/ smoked 1.61 0.00 2,262 0

Fish nei, salted or in brine fish dried/salted/

smoked 4.00 0.00 442 0

Fish meat, whether or not minced, frozen, nei fish fish meat 1.94 0.69 52,442 70,240

Cods nei, salted or in brine fish dried/salted/

smoked 2.70 0.00 1,152 0

Mackerel prepared or preserved, not minced, nei

fish prepared or preserved 1.46 0.49 64,862 46,135

Tunas prepared or preserved, not minced, nei

fish prepared or preserved 1.44 0.48 52,163 35,992

River eels, prepared or preserved, not minced, nei

fish prepared or preserved 2.03 0.63 35,199 44,990

Sardines, sardinellas, brisling or sprats, prep. or pres., not minced, nei

fish prepared or preserved 1.07 0.30 12,404 3,991

Salmon nei, not minced, prepared or preserved fish prepared or

preserved 1.52 0.35 4,637 2,467

Herrings prepared or preserved, not minced, nei

fish prepared or preserved 1.22 0.38 1,707 797

Miscellaneous freshwater fishes, prepared or preserved, not minced, nei

fish prepared or preserved 1.44 0.48 652 450

Anchovies, prepared or preserved, not minced fish prepared or

preserved 2.00 0.54 641 692

Atlantic salmon, not minced, prepared or preserved

fish prepared or preserved 1.52 0.35 188 100

32

Cods nei, dried whether or not salted fish dried/salted/

smoked 3.00 0.00 8,365 0

Tilapia fillets, frozen fish fillets 2.70 0.63 158,112 269,218 Tilapias prepared or preserved, not minced fish prepared or

preserved 2.03 0.63 63,379 80,937

Livers, roes, milt, smoked, dried, salted or in brine

fish dried/salted/ smoked 0.00

0.00 6,862 0

Fish meals, nei fish meal 4.76 0.00 441 0 Fish liver oils, nei fish oil 0.00 0.00 386 0 Miscellaneous coastal fishes, salted or in brine, nei

fish dried/salted/ smoked 1.39

0.00 1 0

Fish heads, tail, maws etc., dried, salted, or in brine

fish dried/salted/ smoked 0.00

0.00 0 0

Freshwater fishes nei, dried, salted, or in brine fish dried/salted/

smoked 1.50 0.00 0 0

Miscellaneous coastal fishes, dried, whether or not salted

fish dried/salted/ smoked 4.00

0.00 0 0

Miscellaneous pelagic fishes, salted or in brine, nei

fish dried/salted/ smoked 1.39

0.00 0 0

Fish body oils, nei fish oil 0.00 0.00 22,666 0 Fish meal fit for human consumption, nei fish meal 0.00 0.00 1,890 0

Shark fins, prepared or preserved fish fins 0.00 0.00 146 0

Shark fins, dried, salted, etc. fish fins 0.00 0.00 343 0

Waste Sum (tons) 1,992,790 Fishmeal potential (tons) 418,486 Fish oil potential (tons) 99,639

33

Table S5. Uncertainty parameters for calculating recycling fish-processing wastes for fishmeal and oil production. Processing yield rate: Typical production yield for whole raw fish, from (22, 67, 70). Waste ratio: Percentage of waste derived from whole fish = 1 – (fish-processing yield rate) – [loss (assumed 2%)]. Market allocation: Percentage of fish-processing waste destined for fishmeal and oil production. Triangular distribution has lower and upper limits and a midpoint value.

Uncertainty parameters Low value

High value

Most likely value

Assumed distribution

Finfish-processing yield rate 30% 70% 40% Triangular Crustaceans-processing yield rate 30% 50% 40% Triangular Waste ratio 28% 68% 58% Triangular Market allocation 50% 80% - Uniform Calculations, baseline assumptions, and raw data can be found in the following Excel

tables:

Table S6. Raw data for Figures S2 to S8 Table S7. Calculations for Table S3 base cases Table S8. Calculations for Table S4 Table S9. MC outputs for Policy Forum figure and Table S3

34

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