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Antonio Marcos Alberti!Vinicius Soares !

Artificiais!

WHAT IS THE PACE OF TECHNOLOGICAL EVOLUTION?

(c) Antonio Alberti, Inatel, 2014.!

VERY OFTEN, PEOPLE CITE MOORE'S LAW AS AN EXAMPLE OF LAW CAPABLE OF PREDICTING TECHNOLOGICAL

DEVELOPMENTS IN COMPUTING POWER.

Gordon Moore, 2004.

“THE QUANTITY OF TRANSISTORS THAT

CAN BE PLACED INEXPENSIVELY ON

AN INTEGRATED CIRCUIT HAS

DOUBLED APPROXIMATELY

EVERY TWO YEARS.”


MORE RECENTLY, RAYMOND KURZWEIL PRESENTED A THEORY FOR TECHNOLOGICAL EVOLUTION AND A NEW LAW THAT EXPANDS MOORE LAW TO DESCRIBE THE EXPONENTIAL GROWTH OF TECHNOLOGICAL ADVANCES

THE LAW OF ACCELERATING RETURNS


KURZWEIL PRESENTED A SERIES OF FIGURES SHOWING EXPONENTIAL GROWTH TRENDS FOR MEMORY CAPACITY (DRAM IN BITS PER DOLLAR), MICROPROCESSOR CLOCK SPEED (HZ), TRANSISTORS PER CHIP, PROCESSOR PERFORMANCE (MIPS), MAGNETIC STORAGE (BITS PER DOLLAR).

“THE SINGULARITY IS AN ERA IN WHICH OUR INTELLIGENCE WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY NONBIOLOGICAL AND TRILLIONS OF TIMES MORE POWERFUL THAN IT IS TODAY—THE DAWNING OF A NEW CIVILIZATION THAT WILL ENABLE US TO TRANSCEND OUR BIOLOGICAL LIMITATIONS AND AMPLIFY OUR CREATIVITY.”

ACCORDING TO THIS BLOG, THE TERM SINGULARITY WAS USED BY THE FIRST TIME IN A JANUARY 1983 ISSUE OF OMNI MAGAZINE. “WE ARE AT THE POINT OF ACCELERATING THE EVOLUTION OF INTELLIGENCE ITSELF.”

SOME POSSIBLE PATHS TO TECHNOLOGICAL SINGULARITY

•  SUPERCOMPUTING ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE •  HACKING HUMAN INTELLIGENCE ON SUPERCOMPUTERS •  SUPERCOMPUTING STIMULATED EVOLUTION •  SELF-IMPROVING SWARMS OF MICRO/NANO ROBOTS •  SELF-IMPROVING ROBOTICS •  SELF-IMPROVING INFORMATION ARCHITECTURES •  HUMAN-MACHINE CONVERGENCE

BENEFICIAL AI 2017 ASILOMAR, CALIFORNIA, USA

THE GOAL OF AI RESEARCH SHOULD BE TO CREATE NOT UNDIRECTED INTELLIGENCE, BUT BENEFICIAL INTELLIGENCE

INVESTMENTS IN AI SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY FUNDING FOR RESEARCH ON ENSURING ITS BENEFICIAL USE: HOW CAN WE MAKE FUTURE AI SYSTEMS HIGHLY ROBUST, SO THAT THEY DO WHAT WE WANT WITHOUT MALFUNCTIONING OR GETTING HACKED? HOW CAN WE GROW OUR PROSPERITY THROUGH AUTOMATION WHILE MAINTAINING PEOPLE’S RESOURCES AND PURPOSE?

HOW CAN WE UPDATE OUR LEGAL SYSTEMS TO BE MORE FAIR AND EFFICIENT, TO KEEP PACE WITH AI, AND TO MANAGE THE RISKS ASSOCIATED WITH AI? WHAT SET OF VALUES SHOULD AI BE ALIGNED WITH, AND WHAT LEGAL AND ETHICAL STATUS SHOULD IT HAVE?

THERE SHOULD BE CONSTRUCTIVE AND HEALTHY EXCHANGE BETWEEN AI RESEARCHERS AND POLICY-MAKERS.

TEAMS DEVELOPING AI SYSTEMS SHOULD ACTIVELY COOPERATE TO AVOID CORNER-CUTTING ON SAFETY STANDARDS.

IF AN AI SYSTEM CAUSES HARM, IT SHOULD BE POSSIBLE TO ASCERTAIN WHY.


THANK YOU!! Antonio Marcos Alberti!Vinicius Soares!

superinteligências - com vinicius soares - ainews

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