suncentric csi report may 2011
TRANSCRIPT
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The CPUCs California Solar InitiativeA Program Off Track
An Update through March 2011
Glenn Harris, CEOSunCentric Incorporatedwww.suncentricinc.com
Published May 19, 2011
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In September 2007 we published our first report on the California Solar Initiative, A Triumph or a Train Wreck. In it we pieced
together the available data, talked with many of our colleagues in the solar business and took a hard look at how the program mightperform in the years ahead. Our outlook was not too positive.
Forward to today and again wed say our outlook is not too positive. Through March 2011, the 4 1/4 year mark, the CPUCs 10
year general market program has completed only 430 MW of the required 1,750 MW, about 25%. We see no meaningful signs of
acceleration that would allow us to project that the program can meet its requirement. Our forecast is that about 1,100 MW will becompleted by year end 2016.
Interestingly, in October 2010 CCSE announced that, based on confirmed projects, they were nearing the dollar incentive budget
for their Non-Residential programs. In late December 2010, PG&E followed. As a way to prevent overspending their budgets forthose two parts of the program, they decided to continue to accept project applications, but not automatically give a reservation.
This effectively created a pre-program step. The new step in the Non-Residential program is called Wait List and there are nowover 50 MW in this bucket. To move off the Wait List and into the program, a project now in the program must be cancelled.
This very strict approach does not seem to take into account the fact that more Non-Residential project MW are cancelled thancompleted. The Wait List process will certainly further lengthen project times, increase project uncertainty and put our hard won
solar industry infrastructure at risk. In our discussions with solar contractors we hear some reports that Non-Residential customersare proceeding with projects ignoring the CSI incentive.
The Non-Residential budget issue caused us to look at how the incentive budget was going for the whole program. After study, wesee that through March 2011, $147 million LESS incentive was actually spent, or reserved for performance based incentivepayments, than planned. This situation became likely when the decision was made early in the program to allow cancelled MWback into the program, but at the current incentive level, which is frequently lower than when the MW were first reserved. Ourbudget projections are included in the slide deck, and youll see we think the program will stay way under the planned budget forboth incentives and MW for the duration of the program.
2
SunCentric Comments
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SunCentric Comments (continued)
Adding a bit of additional drama, the program administrators have also reported that some Non-Residential systems receiving a
performance based incentive payment are producing more MWh than projected, causing the expectation that there will besignificant program overspending. This situation was not caused by some solar miracle, but because the early incentive calculatordid not correctly predict the MWh for some systems (i.e. tracked) or because weve had better weather than expected.
While not included in this report, we have studied the possibility that the fleet of Non-Residential performance based systems could
in whole overspend the Non-Residential budget. The CSI data set does not include actual MWh produced or actual performancebased payments made. The data set does show system size, product used, location and incentives allocated to the individual project.
There is sufficient data to make a good estimate, including variables like trackers and weather, of the fleets MWh production andthe likely total incentive payments needed over the 5 year payment period. Based on study, we are not overly concerned that the
Non-Residential performance based fleet will overspend their allocated incentive budget.
In part based on historical reservation, project completion and dropout rates, we continue to believe that the program does not haveenough demand to meet its year end 2016 objective. Our estimate is that about 3,000 MW total of reservation requests will beneeded to reach 1,750 MW of completions. Through March 2011 the program has received about 1,228 MW of reservation
requests. With declining incentives and some evidence of declining demand, the program has an uphill battle to more than doublereservation requests and reach 3,000 MW sometime in 2016.
Our viewpoints on the CSI come from experience gained over more than 10 years in the solar industry and our observations of thefinicky nature of solar subsidy programs. During this time we, and the industry, have greatly benefited from Californias publicly
available solar program data. Starting with the CEC and SGIP programs, and now the CSI, the data is a unique and very valuablesolar industry resourcecareful interpretation of the data provides many insights.
The charts and tables made for this presentation come from data collected and maintained by the CSI program administrators. You
can find the raw data files at www.californiasolarstatistics.ca.gov. The file now has over 63,000 projects and the administratorspost an updated dataset each week. This real time information gives us the ability to identify and track the programs andprogram participants performance in many ways, and to identify or confirm some broader U.S. PV industry trends.
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SunCentric Comments (concluded)
We particularly like showing program performance data in cumulative views. This technique gives the reader the opportunity to
look at rates of important measures over time. Because the data is posted weekly, we can see virtually real time how things areprogressing. As you review the pictures you can see surges and sags in activity. If you have the benefit of some CSI program andPV industry history you can assign causes to the swings, such as incentive changes, global PV module demand and supply
conditions, policy decisions and solar market or economic conditions.
Another advantage of using cumulative data is in forecasting. The program is bounded by MW, incentive dollars and time. Usingcumulative views makes for easier, and in our experience quite accurate, forward looking forecasts.
You can find some of our older CSI reports on the SunCentric site. Each year weve looked at program progress, project time,
price/demand, PV and inverter manufacturer and contractor results, and done a bit of forecasting. This year weve added our takeon the incentive budget, the new Wait List and a section on Residential and Non-Residential third party ownership, an interesting
industry topic, particularly in the residential space.
On some slides we make a comment or two for clarity or to emphasis a point. We think (hope) that as you study the pictures you
will get the key messages. As always we welcome your feedback and will respond to your questions.
As we mentioned last year, the CSI creates the baseline for credible forecasts in the U.S. and the results are a leading indicator ofthe outlook for the U.S. solar market. While there is much speculative PV activity on the horizon, the CSI is installing MW now
and demonstrates many of the barriers we face in the U.S. market. We also think that lessons learned from the CSI will help in new
program design in California and the U.S. and will give rise to better and simpler solar programs .
California has recently increased its Renewable Portfolio Standard to 33% by 2020. This objective will require massive amounts ofnew renewables to be grid connected in the near term. With all the hard work that has gone into the CSI, we think changes should
be made to get the program to the finish line. Because we believe the program will come in under the incentive budget, and dollarsare therefore not a constraint, we would simply say let the program continue past the 2016 sunset date, and until 1,750 MW are
complete.
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Table of contents
The CPUCs CSI Objective..........Slide 6
The CPUCs CSI Results and Observations................Slide 7
Notes and Definitions...Slide 8 to 9
Results for the entire CPUC CSI program...............Slide 10 to 22
Results for the Residential program......... Slide 23 to 28Results for the Non-Residential program........Slide 29 to 34
Status of Non-Residential Wait List projectsSlide 35 to 37
Time to complete projects......Slide 38 to 41Results by Utility... Slide 42 to 44
Change in prices and demand.............. Slide 45 to 50
Contractor results.............Slide 51 to 54
PV manufacturer results......... Slide 55 to 58Inverter manufacturer results............ Slide 59 to 62
Third party ownership results........... Slide 63 to 69
Incentive $ budget and MW forecasts..Slide 70 to 81
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Officially started in January 2007, the 10 year general market program is requiredto install 1,750MW by year end 2016.
6
The CPUCs CSI objective
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At the end of 2010, the 4 year mark, the program has completed 396 MW or 23%of the 1,750 MW objective.
The program is not completing MW at a rate that will allow the program tocomplete 1,750 MW by year end 2016.
It now takes about 350 days to complete a Non-Residential project and about 180days to complete a Residential project.
In the Non-Residential program more MW are cancelled or withdrawn than arecompleted.
The program is installing MW for less incentive $ than planned. Through March2011, there is about a $147 million positive variance.
Program completion and cancellation rates make it likely that 3,000 MW ofreservation requests will be needed to reach 1,750 MW of completed projects.
7
The CPUCs CSI results and a few observations
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1. Read the title of the chart first, then the y axis and x axis labels. Then review the
data.
2. The data to make these charts comes from RawDataSet_3-30-2011.csv and the
www.californiasolarstatistics.ca.gov site.
3. Some totals may be slightly different due to rounding.
4. The RawDataSet_3-30-2011.csv file has over 63,400 projects. There are
thousands of missing entries and errors. When appropriate we make corrections
or remove projects to improve the quality of the answer.
8
Notes:
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1. Project Status definitionsA. Complete and PBI In Payment, or In Payment, means the projects and MW are complete and an
Expected Performance Based Buydown (EPBB) incentive check can be sent or a Performance Based
Incentive (PBI) payment can be made.
B. Cancelled and Withdrawn means that the project and MW were cancelled or withdrawn at any time for
any reason.
C. In Process, means the project and MW are still active. Projects in process may get completed or
cancelled.D. Confirmed Reservation, or Confirmed, means the projects and the MW are approved into the program.
All projects that could possibly reach Complete and In Payment come from this category.
E. Reservation Requests Review, or Reservation Requests, means the projects and MW of applications
were submitted to the utility administrators for review. The MW may or may not receive a Confirmed
Reservation.
F. Wait List are PG&E and CCSE Non-Residential projects that due to incentive budget concerns are on
hold for unspecified amount of time. They may or may not receive Reservation Request Review statusand be officially accepted into the CSI program.
2. MW definitions
A. MW DC are PV manufacturer module nameplate MW.
B. CEC MW are a quasi estimate of AC MW. CEC MW are created using the PTC rating of a PV module and
the CEC rating of the inverters. The CEC rating of a system is on the order of 85% of the DC rating.
9
Definitions
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15104
174 168 187136
164191
468
638
10%
39%
48%
26%
23%
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
2007 2008 2009 2010 SunCentric 2011Forecast
MWDC
CSI MW DC Completed Rest of U.S. Non-Res and Res PV Installations CSI % of U.S. Installations
The CSI as a part of U.S. Non-Residential andResidential PV Installations 07 thru 10 with 11 forecast
10
The CSI remains an important part of U.S. solar PV activity.
268
365
636
825
151
U.S. totals from 2010 SEIA Report, figure 2.2, available at www.seia.org/galleries/pdf/SMI-YIR-2010-ES.pdf
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10.1
36.052.0
79.0
18.02.8
53.1
97.7
65.4
15.5
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
2007 2008 2009 2010 Q1 2011
CECMW
Residential Non-Residential
CSI Residential and Non-Residential Completions2007 thru 2010 and Q1 2011
11
Compared to 09 Residential was way up in '10. Non-Residential was way down.
12.9
89.1
149.7 144.4
33.5
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396
521
253
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
Dec-06
Mar-07
Jun-07
Sep-07
Dec-07
Mar-08
Jun-08
Sep-08
Dec-08
Mar-09
Jun-09
Sep-09
Dec-09
Mar-10
Jun-10
Sep-10
Dec-10
Mar-11
CECMW
Complete and In Payment In Process Cancelled and Withdrawn
Cumulative MW Activity of All CSI ProjectsJanuary 2007 thru March 2011
12
At the end of 4 years, the 10 year program has completed 396 MW or 23% of its 1,750 MW objective.
Year end 2016 Objective: Complete 1,750MW
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13
Cumulative Activity of All CSI ProjectsJanuary 2007 thru March 2011
There was a Reservation Request surge in the Non-Residential program in the middle of 2010 that boosted programactivity. The surge was caused by coming lower incentives and the potential that the Federal grant would expire at yearend 2010. This activity has not translated to a Completion surge. Also notice that after the surge that Reservation Requests(demand) is flattening and MW In Process are flat to down.
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
Dec-06
Mar-07
Jun-0
7
Sep-07
Dec-07
Mar-08
Jun-0
8
Sep-08
Dec-08
Mar-09
Jun-0
9
Sep-09
Dec-09
Mar-10
Jun-1
0
Sep-10
Dec-10
Mar-11
CECMW
ReservationRequests
ConfirmedReservation
Cancelled andWithdrawn
In Process
Complete
Year end 2016 objective: Complete 1,750MW
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$816
$701
$502
$0
$250
$500
$750
$1,000
$1,250
$1,500
$1,750
$2,000
$2,250
Dec-06
Mar-07
Jun-07
Sep-07
Dec-07
Mar-08
Jun-08
Sep-08
Dec-08
Mar-09
Jun-09
Sep-09
Dec-09
Mar-10
Jun-10
Sep-10
Dec-10
Mar-11
$ MilIncentive
Complete and In Payment In Process Cancelled and Withdrawn
Cumulative Incentive $ Activity of All CSI ProjectsJanuary 2007 thru March 2011
14
At year end 2010 the program had spent, or reserved for performance base incentive payments, $816 million.Notice that together Complete and In Process have flat lined at about $1,500 million.
Program Incentive Budget: $1,747.8 Million
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$0
$250
$500
$750
$1,000
$1,250
$1,500
$1,750
$2,000
$2,250
Dec-06
Mar-07
Jun-07
Sep-07
Dec-07
Mar-08
Jun-08
Sep-08
Dec-08
Mar-09
Jun-09
Sep-09
Dec-09
Mar-10
Jun-10
Sep-10
Dec-10
Mar-11
$ MilIncentive
15
Cumulative $ Incentive Activity of ALL CSI ProjectsJanuary 2007 thru March 2011
Reservation Requests
ConfirmedReservation
Cancelled and Withdrawn
In Process
Complete & In Payment
Program Incentive Budget: $1,747.8 Million
There was a Reservation Request surge in the Non-Residential program in the middle of 2010 caused by coming lowerincentives and the potential that the Federal grant would expire at year end 2010. At the end of March there was about$1,416 million in Confirmed projects. Many projects drop out after they are confirmed.
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2007 2008 2009 2010 End March2011
Annual Withdrawn and Cancelled ProjectsIncentive $ Millions and CEC MW 07 to 10 and Q1 11
$537 million of incentives and 285 CEC MW have been cancelled and withdrawn. Notice that the $ of incentives are nowdeclining while the MW are increasing. Based on the programs incentive structure this relationship is to be expected.
$10.4
$61.0
$84.8
$59.5
$15.8
$72.5
$69.2
$68.5
$76.2
$18.9
4.1
25.736.5 37.7
16.126.3
33.6
35.3
53.6
15.7
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
$140
$160
$180
CECMW
$ MilIncentive
Withdrawn Incentive $ Cancelled Incentive $ Withdrawn CEC MW Cancelled CEC MW
$82.9
30.4
$130.1
59.2
$153.3
71.8
$135.8
91.3
$34.731.8
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Program MW completions versus MW budgetby Utility and Host Customer thru Q1 2011
17
At the 4.25 year mark of the 10 year program only PG&Es and CCSEs Residential programs are performingwell enough to potentially reach their MW budget.
Projects that are complete have received their one time incentive payment or are receiving performance basedpayments. This is the final step in the CSI process.
PG&E SCE CCSE Total
MWBudget
thruMarch2011 %Complete MWBudget
thruMarch2011 %Complete MWBudget
thruMarch2011 %Complete MWBudget
thruMarch2011 %Complete
Residential 252.4 114.6 45% 265.6 54.1 20% 59.5 26.4 44% 577.5 195.1 34%Non-Residential 512.3 125.5 25% 539.5 87.5 16% 120.8 21.5 18% 1,172.6 234.5 20%Total 764.7 240.1 31% 805.1 141.6 18% 180.3 47.9 27% 1,750.1 429.6 25%
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18
Quarterly Activity of All ProjectsQ1 2007 thru Q1 2011
Q1 '07 Q2 '07 Q3 '07 Q4 '07 Q1 '08 Q2 '08 Q3 '08 Q4 '08 Q1 '09 Q2 '09 Q3 '09 Q4 '09 Q1 '10 Q2 '10 Q3 '10 Q4 '10 Q1 '11
Reservation Requests 64.2 56.5 42.8 58.5 52.0 35.1 37.4 44.1 54.0 49.8 45.7 76.8 83.5 275.0 81.5 88.8 58.9
Confirmed Reservations 3.0 33.9 47.7 31.7 35.4 36.1 42.1 42.9 23.4 34.1 41.6 39.1 31.0 72.6 121.8 72.4 100.2
Complete and In Payment 0.0 0.6 3.2 9.1 14.2 26.4 22.2 26.3 39.5 50.4 31.9 27.8 31.8 32.7 35.2 44.7 33.5
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
CECMW
We see no indication of another Reservation Request surge as happened in Q2 2010. Q1 2011 reservationactivity was down compared to Q1 2010 reservation activity.
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177
219
0
100
200
300
400
500
Dec-06
Mar-07
Jun-07
Sep-07
Dec-07
Mar-08
Jun-08
Sep-08
Dec-08
Mar-09
Jun-09
Sep-09
Dec-09
Mar-10
Jun-10
Sep-10
Dec-10
Mar-11
CECMW
Residential Non-Residential19
Cumulative Residential and Non-ResidentialCEC MW Completed each month
At the end of 2010 the Residential program had completed 177 MW or 31% of objective.At the end of 2010 the Non-Residential program had completed 219 MW or 19% of objective.
YE 2016 Residential Objective: Complete 578 MW
YE 2016 Non-Residential Objective: Complete 1,173 MW
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20
Residential and Non-Residential CEC MWCompleted each month
0
5
10
15
20
25
Jun-07
Sep-07
Dec-07
Mar-08
Jun-08
Sep-08
Dec-08
Mar-09
Jun-09
Sep-09
Dec-09
Mar-10
Jun-10
Sep-10
Dec-10
Mar-11
CECMW
Residential Non-Residential
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0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Jun-07
Sep-07
Dec-07
Mar-08
Jun-08
Sep-08
Dec-08
Mar-09
Jun-09
Sep-09
Dec-09
Mar-10
Jun-10
Sep-10
Dec-10
Mar-11
CECMW
Residential Non-Residential 3 per. Mov. Avg. ( Residential) 3 per. Mov. Avg. ( Non-Residential)
Residential and Non-Residential CEC MWCompleted each month with 3 month Moving Average
21
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22
Residential and Non-Residential ProjectsCompleted each month
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
Jun-07
Sep-07
Dec-07
Mar-08
Jun-08
Sep-08
Dec-08
Mar-09
Jun-09
Sep-09
Dec-09
Mar-10
Jun-10
Sep-10
Dec-10
Mar-11
# ofProjects
Residential Non-Residential
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177
71
19
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Dec-06
Mar-07
Jun-07
Sep-07
Dec-07
Mar-08
Jun-08
Sep-08
Dec-08
Mar-09
Jun-09
Sep-09
Dec-09
Mar-10
Jun-10
Sep-10
Dec-10
Mar-11
CECMW
Complete and In Payment In Process Cancelled and Withdrawn23
Cumulative MW Activity of Residential ProjectsJanuary 2007 thru March 2011
YE 2016 Residential objective: Complete 578MW
At the end of 2010, the 4 year mark of the 10 year program, the Residential program has completed 177 MW or31% of its 578 MW objective.
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0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Dec-06
Mar-07
Jun-07
Sep-07
Dec-07
Mar-08
Jun-08
Sep-08
Dec-08
Mar-09
Jun-09
Sep-09
Dec-09
Mar-10
Jun-10
Sep-10
Dec-10
Mar-11
CECMW
24
ReservationRequests
ConfirmedReservations
Cancelled and Withdrawn
In Process
Completeand In Payment
Cumulative Activity of Residential ProjectsJanuary 2007 thru March 2011
The residential program has delivered steady results. However based on the rate of new Reservation Requestsand Confirmed Reservations there are indications of a gradual slowdown in activity.
YE 2016 Residential objective: Complete 578MW
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25
Residential Projects Completed each MonthJanuary 2007 thru March 2011
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
Jun-07
Sep-07
Dec-07
Mar-08
Jun-08
Sep-08
Dec-08
Mar-09
Jun-09
Sep-09
Dec-09
Mar-10
Jun-10
Sep-10
Dec-10
Mar-11
# ofProjects
There appears to be a downward trend in completed projects since September 2010.
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26
Quarterly MW Activity of Residential ProjectsQ1 2007 thru Q1 2011
Q1 '07 Q2 '07 Q3 '07 Q4 '07 Q1 '08 Q2 '08 Q3 '08 Q4 '08 Q1 '09 Q2 '09 Q3 '09 Q4 '09 Q1 '10 Q2 '10 Q3 '10 Q4 '10 Q1 '11
Reservation Requests 2.2 9.7 11.6 10.8 10.7 10.0 14.5 15.5 9.1 19.7 23.4 20.7 24.0 31.1 30.0 23.7 19.6
Confirmed Reservations 1.1 4.9 10.2 13.0 11.2 9.2 13.1 16.8 9.4 17.1 22.5 18.3 17.2 31.1 30.7 27.9 17.5
Complete and In Payment - 0.4 2.9 6.8 8.1 9.5 8.9 9.6 13.0 11.4 12.4 15.2 18.4 17.1 22.4 21.1 18.0
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
CECMW
There appears to be a downward trend in residential program activity since Q2 2010.
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27
Average Size of Completed Residential SystemsIn CEC kW
As system cost has come down and system efficiency has gone up, the average residential system size hasincreased a few hundred watts.
4.0
4.2
4.4
4.6
4.8
5.0
5.2
Jun-07
Sep-07
Dec-07
Mar-08
Jun-08
Sep-08
Dec-08
Mar-09
Jun-09
Sep-09
Dec-09
Mar-10
Jun-10
Sep-10
Dec-10
Mar-11
CECkW
System Size 6 per. Mov. Avg. ( System Size)
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28
Number of Residential Projects and MW DCIn Process, by Project Size at the end of March 2011
About 13,100 projects and 80 MW DC are now In Process
812
1,635
1,809
1,974 2,010
1,340
1,001
775
458
866
237
12442 13 11
1 to 2kW 2 to 3kW 3 to 4kW 4 to 5kW 5 to 6kW 6 to 7kW 7 to 8kW 8 to 9kW 9 to 10kW 10 to15kW
15 to20kW
20 to30kW
30 to50kW
50 to100kW
> 100kW
1.2
4.2
6.3
8.8
11.0
8.7
7.5 6.6
4.3
10.3
4.03.0
1.50.8
2.1
Number or Projects
MW DC of Projects
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219
450
234
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
Dec-06
Mar-07
Jun-07
Sep-07
Dec-07
Mar-08
Jun-08
Sep-08
Dec-08
Mar-09
Jun-09
Sep-09
Dec-09
Mar-10
Jun-10
Sep-10
Dec-10
Mar-11
CECMW
Complete and In Payment In Process Cancelled and Withdrawn29
YE 2016 Non-Residential Objective: Complete 1,173 MW
Cumulative Activity of Non-Residential ProjectsJanuary 2007 thru March 2011
At the end of 2010, the 4 year mark of the the 10 year program, the Non-Residential program has completedonly 219 MW or 19% of its 1,173MW objective.
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30
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
Dec-06
Mar-07
Jun-07
Sep-07
Dec-07
Mar-08
Jun-08
Sep-08
Dec-08
Mar-09
Jun-09
Sep-09
Dec-09
Mar-10
Jun-10
Sep-10
Dec-10
Mar-11
CECMW
ReservationRequests ConfirmedReservation
Cancelled &Withdrawn
In Process
Complete and In Payment
Cumulative Activity of Non-Residential ProjectsJanuary 2007 thru March 2011
Notice that more MW have been Cancelled than have been Completed. This trend will likely continue. TheReservation Request surge in 2010 was caused by coming incentive reductions and the potential that theFederal grant would expire.
YE 2016 Non-Residential Objective: Complete 1,173 MW
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Q1 '07 Q2 '07 Q3 '07 Q4 '07 Q1 '08 Q2 '08 Q3 '08 Q4 '08 Q1 '09 Q2 '09 Q3 '09 Q4 '09 Q1 '10 Q2 '10 Q3 '10 Q4 '10 Q1 '11
Reservation Requests 62.0 46.8 31.2 47.7 41.2 25.1 22.9 28.6 44.9 30.1 22.4 56.2 59.5 243.9 51.5 65.1 39.4
Confirmed Reservations 2.0 29.0 37.5 18.7 24.1 27.0 29.0 26.1 14.0 16.9 19.1 20.8 13.8 41.5 91.1 44.5 82.7
Complete and In Payment 0.0 0.2 0.3 2.3 6.1 17.0 13.3 16.7 26.5 39.1 19.5 12.6 13.4 15.5 12.9 23.6 15.5
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
31
Quarterly Activity of Non-Residential ProjectsQ1 2007 thru Q1 2011
CECMW
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32
Non-Residential Projects Completed each monthJanuary 2007 thru March 2011
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Jun-07
Sep-07
Dec-07
Mar-08
Jun-08
Sep-08
Dec-08
Mar-09
Jun-09
Sep-09
Dec-09
Mar-10
Jun-10
Sep-10
Dec-10
Mar-11
# ofProjects
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33
Average Size of Completed Non-Residential SystemsIn CEC kW
0
50
100
150
200
250
Jun-07
Sep-07
Dec-07
Mar-08
Jun-08
Sep-08
Dec-08
Mar-09
Jun-09
Sep-09
Dec-09
Mar-10
Jun-10
Sep-10
Dec-10
Mar-11
CECkW
System Size 6 per. Mov. Avg. ( System Size)
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34
Number of Non-Residential Projects and MW DCIn Process, by Project Size at the end of March 2011
About 2,000 projects and 510 MW DC are now In Process
38
68
135
166
126
160149
115
188
139
89
301
189
144
0.1 0.2 0.9 2.4 3.16.2 9.0 10.0
22.8 24.2 19.9
106.2
125.7
184.3
< 2kW 2 to 5kW 5 to 10kW 10 to20kW
20 to30kW
30 to50kW
50 to75kW
75 to100kW
100 to150kW
150 to to200kW
200 to250kW
250 to500kW
500kW to1MW
> 1MW
Number of Projects
MW DC of Projects
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83
237
320
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
# ofProj
CCSE PG&E Total
Wait Listed PG&E and CCSE Non-Residential ProjectsWeekly cumulative Dec 15, 2010 thru Apr 20, 2011
35
Data missing ormisreported
Due to incentive budget concerns the program managers have implemented a new Non-Residential programstep. It is called Wait List. These projects have not been accepted into the program, but may receive areservation after projects now In Process are cancelled. By mid April 320 projects were on the Wait List.
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48
9
57
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
CECMW
PG&E CCSE Total
Wait Listed PG&E and CCSE Non-Residential CEC MWWeekly cumulative Dec 15, 2010 thru Apr 20, 2011
36
More than 57 MW are now on the Wait List.
Data missing ormisreported
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$40
$6
$47
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
Inc$ Mil
PG&E CCSE Total
Wait Listed PG&E and CCSE Non-Residential Incentive$ Million Weekly cumulative Dec 15, 10 thru Apr 20, 11
37
Data missing ormisreported
About $47 million of incentives are on the Wait List.
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38
Average Total Days in Process for Residential ProjectsCompleted in the Month of
Despite high awareness of the time it takes to complete a project, no consistent improvements have been seen sofar. A Residential project takes about180 daysafter the customer says YES.
20 2334 39
44 49 49 48 42 39 39 38 34 31 25 25 26 26 28 26 26 23 24 18 16 13 15 13 14 13 16 13 16 16 17 18 1921 21
36 30 23 19 18 18 17
4153
51 49
54 5158 61 72 82
88 94 101 99 106108103 99109
123118 124129
116101110
93106112
101102114107
118126
11010510110690 96
99 102110120118
40
3429 28
34 3537
4145 40
3941 36 38 38 33 37
35
3829
2126
26
26
26 22
27
2724
2731
35 40
39
45
4240 44 33 38 34
34 3535
31 38
47
811
13 11
1513
13 1216
1915
916 22 23
22
19 14
1615
11
14
11 13 1915 16 18
26
18 19
19
22
20 24 1918
2416 19 18
20 1819
0
50
100
150
200
250
Jun-07
Sep-07
Dec-07
Mar-08
Jun-08
Sep-08
Dec-08
Mar-09
Jun-09
Sep-09
Dec-09
Mar-10
Jun-10
Sep-10
Dec-10
Mar-11
Days
Reservation Requests Review to Confirmed Reservation Confirmed Reservation to Incentive Claim Requests Review
Incentive Claim to Pending Payment Date Pending Payment Date to Complete Data
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39
Days in Process for Residential ProjectsCompleted in the Month of
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
Jun-07
Sep-07
Dec-07
Mar-08
Jun-08
Sep-08
Dec-08
Mar-09
Jun-09
Sep-09
Dec-09
Mar-10
Jun-10
Sep-10
Dec-10
Mar-11
Days
Reservation Requests Review to Confirmed Reservation Confirmed Reservation to Incentive Claim Requests Review
Incentive Claim to Pending Payment Date Pending Payment Date to Complete Data
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40
Average Total Days in Process for Non-ResidentialProjects, Completed in the Month of
5069 77
4870 72
87
44
90
133106106
136118
87109
7799
83 86
142119
136112
91 101113
145
78 75101 99
128105
73 76101 98
7396 97 103
11595
121142
23
3752
59
76 57
81
71
96
102
113123
128141
129
205
159
239
142146
171184
176
150177
192175
157
152153
189194
181
161
174148
165180
159115
148118
110163121
207
43
37
29
24
3235
38
47
52
80
65 41
72
46
41
66
46
58
5571
69
4744
73 49
57 7059
50 58
58 43
67
5567
52
5455
6181
82
97
53
5665
42
8
226
9
1010
19
22
19
19
2226
31
16
23
44
27
24
25
22
41
3035
4048
4460 45
30 27
49
44
34
5041
54
38 26
27 39
3237
34
3827
13
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
Jun-07
Sep-07
Dec-07
Mar-08
Jun-08
Sep-08
Dec-08
Mar-09
Jun-09
Sep-09
Dec-09
Mar-10
Jun-10
Sep-10
Dec-10
Mar-11
Days
Reservation Requests to Confirmed Reservation Confirmed Reservation to Incentive Claim Requests Review
Incentive Claim to Pending Payment Date Pending Payment Date to Complete Data
Despite high awareness of the time it takes to complete a project, it is not clear if there is long termimprovement. We notice that from December 2009 to February 2011 there was a gradual downward trend. ANon-Residential project still takes about 350 days.
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41
Days in Process for Non-Residential ProjectsCompleted in the Month of
0
50
100
150
200
250
Jun-07
Sep-07
Dec-07
Mar-08
Jun-08
Sep-08
Dec-08
Mar-09
Jun-09
Sep-09
Dec-09
Mar-10
Jun-10
Sep-10
Dec-10
Mar-11
Days
Reservation Requests to Confirmed Reservation Confirmed Reservation to Incentive Claim Requests Review
Incentive Claim to Pending Payment Date Pending Payment Date to Complete Data
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42
CEC MW Completed by Utility for eachHost Customer type thru March 2011
PG&E SCE CCSEObjective 764.8MW 805.0MW 180.3MW
Completed 240.1MW 141.6MW 47.9MW
% so far 28.4% 15.9% 24.7%
PG&E SCE CCSE
Residential 114.6 54.1 26.4
Non-Profit 7.0 1.8 1.6
Government 37.3 12.8 4.9
Commercial 81.2 72.9 15.0
0
50
100
150
200
250
CECMW
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240.1
141.6
47.9
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Dec-06
Mar-07
Jun-07
Sep-07
Dec-07
Mar-08
Jun-08
Sep-08
Dec-08
Mar-09
Jun-09
Sep-09
Dec-09
Mar-10
Jun-10
Sep-10
Dec-10
Mar-11
CECMW
PG&E SCE CCSE
43
YE 2016 PG&E objective: Complete 764.8MW
YE 2016 SCE objective: Complete 805.0MW
YE 2016 CCSE objective: Complete 180.3MW
Cumulative CEC MW Completed by Utilitythru March 2011
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44
CEC MW Completed by Utility by QuarterQ1 2007 thru Q1 2011
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Q1 '07 Q2 '07 Q3 '07 Q4 '07 Q1 '08 Q2 '08 Q3 '08 Q4 '08 Q1 '09 Q2 '09 Q3 '09 Q4 '09 Q1 '10 Q2 '10 Q3 '10 Q4 '10 Q1 '11
CECMW
PG&E SCE CCSE
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15
1114
1210
1417
10
18
24
20 19
35 3532
20
$0
$1
$2
$3
$4
$5
$6
$7
$8
$9
Q1 '07 Q2 '07 Q3 '07 Q4 '07 Q1 '08 Q2 '08 Q3 '08 Q4 '08 Q1 '09 Q2 '09 Q3 '09 Q4 '09 Q1 '10 Q2 '10 Q3 '10 Q4 '10 Q1 '11
$/DCWatt
Residential Price and DemandConfirmed Projects Q1 2007 thru Q1 2011
45
Residential prices have stabilized. There have been many new MW of confirmations since the Federal taxcredit was increased in Q3 08. At current prices it appears that demand may be moderating or declining.
Installed price / watt
CSI incentive / watt
Installed price / wattAFTER CSI incentive
Confirmed DC MW
Installed price / watt AFTERCSI and Federal tax credit
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Change in Residential price by system sizeQ1 Comparison 2007 thru 2011
46
A comparison of each Q1 since the program began in 2007 shows that the installed $/DC watt price has fallenacross all size ranges. A significant decline is noted between Q1 2009 and Q1 2010.
$5
$6
$7
$8
$9
$10
$11
$12
1 to 2kW 2 to 3kW 3 to 4kW 4 to 5kW 5 to 6kW 6 to 7kW 7 to 8kW 8 to 9kW 9 to 10kW 10 to15kW
15 to20kW
20 to30kW
$/DCWatt
Q1 '07 Q1 '08 Q1 '09 Q1 '10 Q1 '11
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Change in Residential price by system sizeComparison Q2 10 thru Q1 11
47
$5
$6
$7
$8
$9
$10
1 to 2kW 2 to 3kW 3 to 4kW 4 to 5kW 5 to 6kW 6 to 7kW 7 to 8kW 8 to 9kW 9 to 10kW 10 to15kW
15 to20kW
20 to30kW
Q2 '10 Q3 '10 Q4 '10 Q1 '11
$/DCWatt
Over the past four quarters the installed price has stabilized across most size categories.
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2
3040
1823 21
29 27
14 1721 23
12
48
104
52
92
$0
$1
$2
$3
$4
$5
$6
$7
$8
$9
Q1 '07 Q2 '07 Q3 '07 Q4 '07 Q1 '08 Q2 '08 Q3 '08 Q4 '08 Q1 '09 Q2 '09 Q3 '09 Q4 '09 Q1 '10 Q2 '10 Q3 '10 Q4 '10 Q1 '11
$/DCWatt
Non-Residential Price and DemandConfirmed Projects Q1 2007 thru Q1 2011
48
Installed price / watt
CSI incentive / watt
Installed price / watt AFTER CSI incentive
Confirmed MW DC
After a period of decline, prices have moderated and appear to be trending up a bit. Current prices, and theFederal cash grant, stimulated demand in 2010 and in Q1 2011. The value of the Federal tax credit, or cash grant,which substantially reduces the system price, is not included in this view.
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Change in Non-Residential price by system sizeQ1 Comparison 2008 thru 2011
49
$4
$5
$6
$7
$8
$9
$10
1 to 5kW 5 to 10kW 10 to 15kW 15 to 20kW 20 to 30kW 30 to 50kW 50 to100kW
100 to200kW
200 to300kW
200 to300kW
> 500kW
Q1 '08 Q1 '09 Q1 '10 Q1 '11
$/DCWatt
A comparison of each Q1 since the program began in 2007 shows that the installed $/DC watt price has fallenacross all size ranges. Some of the bumpiness is due to small amounts of data in a given size group.
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Change in Non-Residential price by system sizeComparison Q2 2010 thru Q1 2011
50
$/DCWatt
$4
$5
$6
$7
$8
1 to 5kW 5 to 10kW 10 to 15kW 15 to 20kW 20 to 30kW 30 to 50kW 50 to100kW
100 to200kW
200 to300kW
200 to300kW
> 500kW
Q2 '10 Q3 '10 Q4 '10 Q1 '11
Over the past four quarters the installed price has stabilized across most size categories. Some of thebumpiness is due to small amounts of data in a given size group.
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51
ProjectTotalCost Incentive CEC
% ofCEC Project
TotalCost Incentive CEC
% ofCEC Project
TotalCost Incentive CEC
% ofCEC Project
TotalCost Incentive CEC
% ofCEC
Summary Count $ Mil $ Mil MW MW Count $ Mil $ Mil MW MW Count $ Mil $ Mil MW MW Count $ Mil $ Mil MW MW
Total First 50 30,352 6,083.1$ 1,556.9$ 898.9 73.2% 8,070 2,380.2$ 518.6$ 392.0 76.2% 19,739 2,337.3$ 610.6$ 285.2 66.4% 2,543 1,365.6$ 427.6$ 221.6 77.9%
Total Second 50 7,669 747.4$ 186.4$ 109.6 8.9% 1,058 178.0$ 34.5$ 30.7 6.0% 5,960 380.5$ 88.4$ 44.8 10.4% 651 188.8$ 63.5$ 34.0 12.0%
Total Third 50 5,548 423.0$ 87.1$ 55.9 4.5% 1,119 142.7$ 31.8$ 21.6 4.2% 4,031 212.9$ 40.1$ 25.1 5.9% 398 67.4$ 15.2$ 9.2 3.2%
Total of the Top 150 43,569 7,253.5$ 1,830.4$ 1,064.3 86.6% 10,247 2,701.0$ 584.9$ 444.4 86.4% 29,730 2,930.8$ 739.1$ 355.2 82.7% 3,592 1,621.7$ 506.4$ 264.8 93.0%
All Others - More than 1,800 19,877 1,221.5$ 227.8$ 164.0 13.4% 4,885 444.8$ 78.7$ 69.8 13.6% 13,365 629.3$ 118.7$ 74.4 17.3% 1,627 147.3$ 30.4$ 19.8 7.0%
Program Total 63,446 8,474.9$ 2,058.2$ 1,228.3 100.0% 15,132 3,145.8$ 663.6$ 514.2 100.0% 43,095 3,560.1$ 857.8$ 429.6 100.0% 5,219 1,769.1$ 536.8$ 284.6 100.0%
All Projects In Process Complete and In Payment Cancelled and Withdrawn
Summary of results by Contractor thru Q1 2011
Over 1,950 contractors have participated in the program so far
Of the 1,950 contractors more than 1,100 have 3 or less projects reserved
The Top 150 contractors have done about 85% of All Projects
Summary results for the Top 150 follows on the next three slides
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52
Project
Total
Cost Incentive CEC
% of
CEC Project
Total
Cost Incentive CEC
% of
CEC Project
Total
Cost Incentive CEC
% of
CEC Project
Total
Cost Incentive CEC
% of
CEC
MW Contractor Name - First 50 Count $ Mil $ Mil MW MW Count $ Mil $ Mil MW MW Count $ Mil $ Mil MW MW Count $ Mil $ Mil MW MW
1 SunPower Corporation Systems 311 884.9$ 265.5$ 129.6 10.6% 101 262.8$ 73.2$ 40.4 7.9% 100 331.2$ 102.2$ 42.7 9.9% 110 290.9$ 90.1$ 46.5 16.4%2 Sun Edison/Team Solar Inc 257 671.6$ 180.2$ 104.0 8.5% 89 270.7$ 40.4$ 45.3 8.8% 101 238.1$ 90.4$ 30.9 7.2% 67 162.8$ 49.3$ 27.7 9.7%
3 SolarCity 7,087 668.7$ 96.9$ 74.8 6.1% 2,779 397.5$ 49.9$ 47.7 9.3% 3,675 210.2$ 36.0$ 20.7 4.8% 633 61.0$ 11.0$ 6.4 2.3%
4 Chevron Energy Solutions Inc 227 546.8$ 153.4$ 73.0 5.9% 99 208.0$ 53.8$ 29.3 5.7% 47 150.3$ 35.5$ 15.0 3.5% 81 188.5$ 64.1$ 28.7 10.1%5 REC Solar Inc 4,004 348.7$ 85.5$ 52.2 4.2% 534 84.2$ 17.0$ 14.9 2.9% 3,255 214.9$ 54.4$ 28.5 6.6% 215 49.5$ 14.2$ 8.8 3.1%
6 None Listed 410 256.2$ 87.7$ 50.6 4.1% 167 84.0$ 23.2$ 18.7 3.6% 45 11.1$ 2.1$ 1.0 0.2% 198 161.1$ 62.4$ 30.9 10.9%7 SPG Solar Inc 693 337.6$ 97.2$ 50.1 4.1% 36 89.7$ 24.2$ 16.3 3.2% 565 161.2$ 47.3$ 20.7 4.8% 92 86.6$ 25.6$ 13.1 4.6%8 Real Goods 3,733 229.8$ 48.5$ 28.2 2.3% 897 68.5$ 11.5$ 8.4 1.6% 2,683 122.5$ 23.7$ 14.4 3.4% 153 38.8$ 13.3$ 5.4 1.9%
9 Borrego Solar Systems Inc 703 187.9$ 46.1$ 26.2 2.1% 41 86.0$ 18.5$ 15.0 2.9% 596 64.7$ 16.1$ 6.6 1.5% 66 37.1$ 11.4$ 4.6 1.6%10 Rosendin Electric Inc 44 96.7$ 28.2$ 18.7 1.5% 44 96.7$ 28.2$ 18.7 3.6% - -$ -$ - 0.0% - -$ -$ - 0.0%
11 Swinerton Builders Inc 20 67.8$ 26.2$ 14.3 1.2% 13 42.1$ 18.9$ 10.3 2.0% 3 1.1$ 0.1$ 0.2 0.0% 4 24.6$ 7.2$ 3.7 1.3%12 PermaCity Construction Corp. 153 86.4$ 26.1$ 14.1 1.1% 38 32.1$ 10.3$ 5.9 1.2% 104 49.9$ 14.5$ 7.2 1.7% 11 4.4$ 1.2$ 0.9 0.3%13 Conergy Projects Inc 80 87.4$ 26.1$ 14.1 1.1% 16 9.8$ 2.4$ 2.8 0.6% 51 56.3$ 18.5$ 7.5 1.7% 13 21.3$ 5.3$ 3.7 1.3%
14 Akeena Solar Inc 2,159 111.6$ 23.8$ 13.9 1.1% 57 9.4$ 3.0$ 1.4 0.3% 1,955 93.8$ 18.0$ 10.7 2.5% 147 8.4$ 2.9$ 1.8 0.6%15 Stellar Energy Solutions Inc 44 92.7$ 17.8$ 13.6 1.1% 28 52.0$ 10.0$ 9.1 1.8% 7 31.3$ 4.1$ 2.4 0.6% 9 9.4$ 3.6$ 2.1 0.8%
16 PsomasFMG, LLC 31 68.0$ 10.1$ 13.5 1.1% 31 68.0$ 10.1$ 13.5 2.6% - -$ -$ - 0.0% - -$ -$ - 0.0%17 BP Solar International Inc 31 95.4$ 29.3$ 12.2 1.0% 5 11.0$ 3.0$ 1.7 0.3% 22 75.7$ 23.8$ 9.4 2.2% 4 8.7$ 2.4$ 1.1 0.4%18 BAP Power Corporation 32 53.4$ 14.6$ 11.8 1.0% 19 37.5$ 10.4$ 8.5 1.7% 10 15.2$ 4.0$ 3.0 0.7% 3 0.7$ 0.2$ 0.3 0.1%
19 Self-Install 1,172 68.8$ 19.4$ 11.4 0.9% 257 31.5$ 9.4$ 5.6 1.1% 812 28.3$ 7.2$ 4.3 1.0% 103 8.9$ 2.8$ 1.6 0.5%20 Suntech America Inc 31 67.4$ 23.7$ 10.2 0.8% 1 0.8$ 0.2$ 0.1 0.0% 11 31.0$ 10.6$ 3.8 0.9% 19 35.6$ 12.9$ 6.4 2.2%
21 Petersen-Dean Inc 1,213 64.2$ 10.7$ 9.8 0.8% 652 40.3$ 6.4$ 6.3 1.2% 512 17.5$ 2.8$ 2.6 0.6% 49 6.4$ 1.6$ 1.0 0.3%22 Prem ier Power Renewable Energy Inc 461 65.2$ 15.9$ 9.5 0.8% 61 16.9$ 4.1$ 3.4 0.7% 362 43.0$ 9.7$ 4.9 1.1% 38 5.3$ 2.0$ 1.3 0.5%23 Cupertino Electric Inc 39 42.0$ 11.2$ 7.9 0.6% 20 24.5$ 7.1$ 5.4 1.1% 12 10.2$ 2.6$ 1.2 0.3% 7 7.4$ 1.6$ 1.3 0.5%
24 Pacific Power Management, LLC 16 57.4$ 18.9$ 7.8 0.6% - -$ -$ - 0.0% 11 32.1$ 10.0$ 4.7 1.1% 5 25.3$ 8.9$ 3.2 1.1%25 Solar Power Systems 96 46.3$ 15.3$ 7.5 0.6% 15 20.0$ 6.3$ 3.2 0.6% 63 13.0$ 3.9$ 1.9 0.4% 18 13.4$ 5.1$ 2.4 0.9%26 Acro Energy Technologies Inc 1,040 51.2$ 10.6$ 6.9 0.6% 173 7.3$ 0.7$ 1.1 0.2% 699 35.3$ 7.2$ 4.3 1.0% 168 8.6$ 2.6$ 1.5 0.5%
27 Erickson Construction Co. 20 42.4$ 9.3$ 6.0 0.5% 2 5.4$ 1.1$ 1.0 0.2% 14 19.7$ 4.8$ 2.5 0.6% 4 17.3$ 3.4$ 2.5 0.9%28 Milender White Construction Co 49 29.1$ 4.3$ 5.5 0.4% 45 27.6$ 4.1$ 5.2 1.0% - -$ -$ - 0.0% 4 1.6$ 0.3$ 0.3 0.1%
29 CSI Electrical Contractors Inc 19 28.3$ 5.1$ 5.5 0.4% 18 28.2$ 5.1$ 5.4 1.1% 1 0.1$ 0.0$ 0.0 0.0% - -$ -$ - 0.0%30 Granite Bay Energy 119 37.3$ 8.1$ 5.4 0.4% 14 11.8$ 2.7$ 2.2 0.4% 91 21.0$ 4.5$ 2.6 0.6% 14 4.5$ 0.9$ 0.6 0.2%31 HelioPower Inc 709 38.3$ 8.7$ 5.4 0.4% 159 10.6$ 2.2$ 1.7 0.3% 508 24.5$ 5.7$ 3.3 0.8% 42 3.2$ 0.7$ 0.4 0.1%
32 Sun Nanosys 421 41.1$ 8.4$ 5.3 0.4% 45 13.6$ 3.0$ 2.3 0.4% 354 25.8$ 5.0$ 2.7 0.6% 22 1.6$ 0.5$ 0.3 0.1%33 Chico Electric 74 35.8$ 8.2$ 5.3 0.4% 15 12.2$ 2.2$ 1.8 0.4% 55 18.9$ 4.8$ 2.7 0.6% 4 4.8$ 1.2$ 0.7 0.3%34 Independent Energy Solutions Inc 41 31.9$ 10.5$ 5.2 0.4% 7 13.2$ 4.6$ 2.7 0.5% 30 17.8$ 5.5$ 2.4 0.6% 4 1.0$ 0.4$ 0.1 0.1%
35 Stronghold Engineering Inc 9 30.8$ 9.1$ 5.2 0.4% 5 27.2$ 8.0$ 4.6 0.9% 1 1.9$ 0.5$ 0.2 0.0% 3 1.6$ 0.6$ 0.4 0.1%36 Martifer Solar USA Inc 92 27.0$ 8.0$ 5.1 0.4% 22 5.7$ 1.4$ 1.2 0.2% 58 5.5$ 1.9$ 0.8 0.2% 12 15.8$ 4.7$ 3.1 1.1%
37 Johnson Controls 22 28.3$ 10.1$ 5.1 0.4% 19 26.4$ 9.7$ 4.8 0.9% 1 0.8$ 0.2$ 0.1 0.0% 2 1.0$ 0.3$ 0.2 0.1%
38 DRI Energy 13 27.6$ 5.6$ 5.1 0.4% 7 23.8$ 4.6$ 4.5 0.9% 5 3.9$ 0.9$ 0.5 0.1% 1 -$ 0.1$ 0.1 0.0%39 Verengo 1,180 39.1$ 7.4$ 5.0 0.4% 590 19.0$ 3.3$ 2.5 0.5% 567 19.2$ 3.9$ 2.4 0.5% 23 0.9$ 0.2$ 0.1 0.0%
40 SunWize Technologies Inc 407 37.4$ 9.7$ 4.6 0.4% 37 4.0$ 0.7$ 0.5 0.1% 328 27.0$ 7.3$ 3.2 0.8% 42 6.4$ 1.7$ 0.9 0.3%41 AECOM Technical Services 20 13.7$ 5.1$ 4.6 0.4% 20 13.7$ 5.1$ 4.6 0.9% - -$ -$ - 0.0% - -$ -$ - 0.0%
42 SolarCraft Services Inc 426 31.6$ 6.6$ 4.5 0.4% 57 6.6$ 1.7$ 1.5 0.3% 355 20.4$ 3.8$ 2.4 0.6% 14 4.5$ 1.2$ 0.6 0.2%43 Sullivan Solar Power 513 31.4$ 6.9$ 4.2 0.3% 108 11.1$ 2.4$ 1.8 0.3% 392 19.5$ 4.3$ 2.4 0.6% 13 0.8$ 0.2$ 0.1 0.0%44 Sunlight Electric LLC 44 19.5$ 7.4$ 4.2 0.3% 7 0.9$ 0.9$ 0.6 0.1% 19 14.3$ 3.4$ 1.6 0.4% 18 4.3$ 3.1$ 1.9 0.7%
45 Bass Electric Company 20 23.2$ 4.6$ 3.9 0.3% 10 11.1$ 2.4$ 2.1 0.4% 5 6.7$ 1.7$ 0.8 0.2% 5 5.4$ 0.4$ 0.9 0.3%46 Desert Solar 38 23.2$ 8.3$ 3.9 0.3% 10 13.2$ 6.2$ 2.4 0.5% 21 1.2$ 0.3$ 0.2 0.0% 7 8.8$ 1.8$ 1.3 0.5%47 Sungevity Inc 972 37.2$ 3.2$ 3.7 0.3% 460 20.9$ 1.5$ 2.0 0.4% 482 15.6$ 1.6$ 1.6 0.4% 30 0.7$ 0.1$ 0.1 0.0%
48 Permacity Solar Inc 6 17.4$ 4.3$ 3.5 0.3% 4 10.4$ 2.2$ 2.1 0.4% 1 2.2$ 0.7$ 0.4 0.1% 1 4.8$ 1.3$ 1.0 0.4%49 The Solar Company 598 30.3$ 4.0$ 3.5 0.3% 170 9.1$ 0.8$ 1.1 0.2% 391 18.3$ 2.7$ 2.1 0.5% 37 2.8$ 0.4$ 0.3 0.1%
50 Solar Technologies 453 27.0$ 5.3$ 3.4 0.3% 66 3.3$ 0.4$ 0.5 0.1% 359 14.7$ 2.5$ 1.8 0.4% 28 8.9$ 2.4$ 1.2 0.4%
Total First 50 30,352 6,083.1$ 1,556.9$ 898.9 73.2% 8,070 2,380.2$ 518.6$ 392.0 76.2% 19,739 2,337.3$ 610.6$ 285.2 66.4% 2,543 1,365.6$ 427.6$ 221.6 77.9%
Program Total 63,446 8,474.9$ 2,058.2$ 1,228.3 15,132 3,145.8$ 663.6$ 514.2 43,095 3,560.1$ 857.8$ 429.6 5,219 1,769.1$ 536.8$ 284.6
% of Program Total 47.8% 71.8% 75.6% 73.2% 53.3% 75.7% 78.2% 76.2% 45.8% 65.7% 71.2% 66.4% 48.7% 77.2% 79.7% 77.9%
Complete and In Payment Cancelled and W ithdrawnRankedAll Proj
CEC
All Projects In Process
Results by Contractor thru March 2011 First 50
-
8/6/2019 SunCentric CSI Report May 2011
53/81
53
Project
Total
Cost Incentive CEC
% of
CEC Project
Total
Cost Incentive CEC
% of
CEC Project
Total
Cost Incentive CEC
% of
CEC Project
Total
Cost Incentive CEC
% of
CEC
MW Contractor Name - Second 50 Count $ Mil $ Mil MW MW Count $ Mil $ Mil MW MW Count $ Mil $ Mil MW MW Count $ Mil $ Mil MW MW
51 TMAG Industries dba Stellar Solar 265 21.9$ 5.3$ 3.4 0.3% 33 7.6$ 2.3$ 1.6 0.3% 214 9.7$ 1.9$ 1.2 0.3% 18 4.6$ 1.1$ 0.6 0.2%52 Advanced Solar Electric Inc 632 31.2$ 6.8$ 3.4 0.3% 40 1.5$ 0.3$ 0.2 0.0% 518 23.9$ 5.2$ 2.6 0.6% 74 5.8$ 1.3$ 0.6 0.2%
53 Unlimited Energy Inc 259 24.7$ 8.7$ 3.3 0.3% 21 0.9$ 0.1$ 0.2 0.0% 195 21.6$ 8.0$ 2.8 0.7% 43 2.2$ 0.6$ 0.3 0.1%
54 WorldWater & Solar Tec hnologies Corp 14 22.3$ 11.2$ 3.3 0.3% 1 -$ 0.0$ 0.0 0.0% 9 17.1$ 8.3$ 2.0 0.5% 4 5.2$ 2.9$ 1.3 0.4%55 Sierra Pacific Home & Comfort Inc 560 25.1$ 4.1$ 3.2 0.3% 83 4.5$ 0.5$ 0.6 0.1% 399 16.3$ 2.7$ 2.0 0.5% 78 4.3$ 0.9$ 0.5 0.2%56 Siemens Building Technologies 294 26.2$ 6.7$ 3.0 0.2% 13 0.6$ 0.1$ 0.1 0.0% 256 14.6$ 3.3$ 1.6 0.4% 25 11.0$ 3.3$ 1.2 0.4%
57 Southern California Solar 290 24.6$ 5.9$ 2.9 0.2% 32 5.7$ 1.5$ 0.8 0.2% 226 12.8$ 2.8$ 1.4 0.3% 32 6.2$ 1.6$ 0.7 0.2%58 Genesis Renewable Energy 4 15.2$ 3.2$ 2.8 0.2% 4 15.2$ 3.2$ 2.8 0.5% - -$ -$ - 0.0% - -$ -$ - 0.0%59 Bleyco Inc 9 19.7$ 5.6$ 2.8 0.2% - -$ -$ (0.0) 0.0% 8 17.7$ 5.2$ 2.5 0.6% 1 2.0$ 0.4$ 0.2 0.1%
60 M B L & Sons Inc 14 24.8$ 4.7$ 2.8 0.2% 7 18.3$ 3.2$ 2.0 0.4% 6 6.5$ 1.4$ 0.7 0.2% 1 -$ 0.0$ 0.0 0.0%61 Cobalt Power Systems Inc 435 21.9$ 3.3$ 2.7 0.2% 72 3.3$ 0.2$ 0.4 0.1% 362 18.6$ 3.1$ 2.3 0.5% 1 0.0$ 0.0$ 0.0 0.0%62 Strong Electric & Solar 11 18.0$ 3.9$ 2.7 0.2% 3 10.1$ 1.8$ 1.7 0.3% 2 0.1$ 0.0$ 0.0 0.0% 6 7.8$ 2.1$ 1.0 0.4%
63 Regenesis Power LLC 4 18.9$ 7.2$ 2.7 0.2% - -$ -$ - 0.0% - -$ -$ - 0.0% 4 18.9$ 7.2$ 2.7 1.0%64 Bright Power Inc 6 14.0$ 3.4$ 2.7 0.2% 4 7.0$ 1.9$ 1.1 0.2% 1 3.9$ 0.7$ 0.5 0.1% 1 3.1$ 0.9$ 1.1 0.4%65 Global Solar Corporation 345 20.1$ 4.0$ 2.6 0.2% 42 1.3$ 0.1$ 0.2 0.0% 291 13.2$ 2.5$ 1.7 0.4% 12 5.6$ 1.3$ 0.7 0.2%
66 Barrier Specialty Roofing & Coatings 23 10.2$ 2.3$ 2.5 0.2% 18 7.7$ 1.9$ 2.1 0.4% 2 2.4$ 0.4$ 0.3 0.1% 3 0.1$ 0.0$ 0.0 0.0%67 Mohr Power Solar Inc 541 24.4$ 5.0$ 2.4 0.2% 62 2.8$ 0.4$ 0.3 0.1% 411 18.3$ 3.9$ 1.8 0.4% 68 3.3$ 0.7$ 0.3 0.1%68 NextEnergy Corp. 452 20.1$ 3.5$ 2.4 0.2% 42 1.8$ 0.2$ 0.3 0.0% 394 17.7$ 3.2$ 2.1 0.5% 16 0.5$ 0.1$ 0.1 0.0%
69 Sunkiss Solar 35 17.2$ 4.8$ 2.3 0.2% 9 0.6$ 0.1$ 0.1 0.0% 16 0.9$ 0.2$ 0.1 0.0% 10 15.7$ 4.6$ 2.1 0.7%70 AMSOLAR Corporation 9 0.0$ 1.9$ 2.2 0.2% - -$ -$ - 0.0% 1 0.0$ 0.0$ 0.0 0.0% 8 0.0$ 1.9$ 2.2 0.8%
71 Solar Integrated Technologies Inc 10 17.0$ 5.8$ 2.1 0.2% 1 0.3$ 0.1$ 0.0 0.0% 8 16.2$ 5.7$ 2.1 0.5% 1 0.5$ 0.1$ 0.0 0.0%72 Valley Unique Electr ic DBA Solar Universe 269 14.5$ 1.9$ 2.1 0.2% 104 6.8$ 0.8$ 1.0 0.2% 155 7.4$ 1.1$ 1.0 0.2% 10 0.3$ 0.1$ 0.1 0.0%73 Panelized Structrures dba Panelized Solar 12 13.1$ 1.3$ 2.1 0.2% 11 12.6$ 1.2$ 2.1 0.4% - -$ -$ - 0.0% 1 0.5$ 0.1$ 0.1 0.0%74 3rd Rock Systems & Technologies Inc 9 8.6$ 4.5$ 2.1 0.2% - -$ -$ - 0.0% 2 1.5$ 0.4$ 0.2 0.0% 7 7.1$ 4.1$ 1.9 0.7%
75 Baker Electric 13 14.1$ 2.8$ 2.1 0.2% 12 12.1$ 1.9$ 1.9 0.4% 1 2.1$ 0.9$ 0.2 0.1% - -$ -$ - 0.0%76 Professional Electrical Contractors 3 11.0$ 2.3$ 2.0 0.2% - -$ -$ - 0.0% 1 0.2$ 0.0$ 0.0 0.0% 2 10.8$ 2.2$ 2.0 0.7%77 AMG Energy Inc 2 7.6$ 4.2$ 2.0 0.2% - -$ -$ - 0.0% - -$ -$ - 0.0% 2 7.6$ 4.2$ 2.0 0.7%
78 Interior Electric Incorporated 10 14.0$ 3.2$ 2.0 0.2% - -$ -$ - 0.0% 3 7.7$ 2.4$ 1.0 0.2% 7 6.3$ 0.8$ 1.0 0.4%79 Renewable Technologies Inc 29 15.3$ 4.1$ 1.9 0.2% 2 0.4$ 0.1$ 0.1 0.0% 18 5.0$ 1.1$ 0.6 0.1% 9 9.9$ 2.9$ 1.3 0.5%80 TBD - Pending RFP 4 0.2$ 3.0$ 1.9 0.2% - -$ -$ - 0.0% 1 0.2$ 0.1$ 0.0 0.0% 3 -$ 2.9$ 1.9 0.7%81 Suntrek Industries Inc 209 12.7$ 2.9$ 1.9 0.2% 37 3.6$ 0.8$ 0.8 0.1% 157 7.6$ 1.5$ 0.9 0.2% 15 1.5$ 0.5$ 0.3 0.1%
82 Harbison-Mahony-Higgins Builders Inc 2 15.6$ 3.8$ 1.9 0.2% 1 6.2$ 2.0$ 0.9 0.2% 1 9.4$ 1.9$ 1.0 0.2% - -$ -$ - 0.0%83 SunPower Services 2 16.0$ 1.9$ 1.9 0.2% - -$ -$ - 0.0% 1 0.0$ 0.0$ 0.0 0.0% 1 15.9$ 1.9$ 1.9 0.7%84 Solar World California LLC 301 14.8$ 2.5$ 1.8 0.1% 41 1.7$ 0.1$ 0.2 0.0% 250 12.7$ 2.2$ 1.5 0.3% 10 0.4$ 0.1$ 0.1 0.0%
85 Trane Inc 4 4.7$ 2.4$ 1.8 0.1% 4 4.7$ 2.4$ 1.8 0.4% - -$ -$ - 0.0% - -$ -$ - 0.0%86 Sequoia Solar Inc - Solana Beach 205 12.6$ 2.9$ 1.8 0.1% 20 1.0$ 0.1$ 0.1 0.0% 169 9.7$ 2.1$ 1.2 0.3% 16 1.9$ 0.7$ 0.4 0.1%87 Stout & Burg Electric Inc 770 23.3$ 2.9$ 1.8 0.1% 67 2.7$ 0.3$ 0.3 0.1% 677 19.7$ 2.5$ 1.4 0.3% 26 0.9$ 0.1$ 0.1 0.0%
88 Pure Energy Systems Inc 242 10.8$ 2.6$ 1.7 0.1% 27 1.2$ 0.1$ 0.2 0.0% 202 9.2$ 1.6$ 1.2 0.3% 13 0.4$ 0.8$ 0.4 0.1%89 MC2 Engineering & Construction Svcs. Inc 20 10.4$ 2.5$ 1.7 0.1% 6 4.9$ 1.2$ 0.9 0.2% 14 5.5$ 1.3$ 0.8 0.2% - -$ -$ - 0.0%90 Horizon Energy Systems 347 14.2$ 2.5$ 1.7 0.1% 26 1.1$ 0.1$ 0.1 0.0% 298 12.2$ 2.2$ 1.4 0.3% 23 1.0$ 0.2$ 0.1 0.0%
91 Solar Distributors Inc 161 14.1$ 4.0$ 1.7 0.1% 20 1.6$ 0.3$ 0.2 0.0% 121 10.4$ 2.7$ 1.0 0.2% 20 2.1$ 1.0$ 0.4 0.2%92 Adema Technologies dba Gloria Solar 4 6.9$ 0.8$ 1.6 0.1% 4 6.9$ 0.8$ 1.6 0.3% - -$ -$ - 0.0% - -$ -$ - 0.0%93 MMA Renewable Ventures 2 13.9$ 4.4$ 1.6 0.1% - -$ -$ - 0.0% - -$ -$ - 0.0% 2 13.9$ 4.4$ 1.6 0.6%
94 Revco Solar Engineering Inc 254 13.9$ 3.1$ 1.6 0.1% 25 2.0$ 0.3$ 0.2 0.0% 190 9.1$ 2.1$ 1.0 0.2% 39 2.9$ 0.6$ 0.3 0.1%95 Compass Energy Solutions 6 1.4$ 2.3$ 1.6 0.1% 4 0.9$ 0.7$ 0.5 0.1% - -$ -$ - 0.0% 2 0.5$ 1.6$ 1.0 0.4%96 Elite Electric 75 8.9$ 3.0$ 1.5 0.1% 42 2.1$ 0.4$ 0.3 0.1% 32 1.6$ 0.3$ 0.2 0.0% 1 5.2$ 2.3$ 1.0 0.4%
97 Contra Costa Electric Inc 2 7.9$ 1.7$ 1.5 0.1% 2 7.9$ 1.7$ 1.5 0.3% - -$ -$ - 0.0% - -$ -$ - 0.0%98 Shamrock Renewable Energy Services Inc 18 7.2$ 1.3$ 1.4 0.1% 5 3.8$ 0.7$ 0.9 0.2% 12 3.4$ 0.5$ 0.5 0.1% 1 -$ 0.1$ 0.1 0.0%99 Solar Plus 287 11.6$ 2.4$ 1.4 0.1% 45 1.9$ 0.3$ 0.3 0.0% 223 8.8$ 1.9$ 1.0 0.2% 19 0.9$ 0.2$ 0.1 0.0%
100 Bland Solar & Air Inc 195 10.4$ 1.8$ 1.4 0.1% 66 2.6$ 0.3$ 0.4 0.1% 113 5.7$ 0.9$ 0.7 0.2% 16 2.1$ 0.5$ 0.4 0.1%
Total Second 50 7,669 747.4$ 186.4$ 109.6 8.9% 1,058 178.0$ 34.5$ 30.7 6.0% 5,960 380.5$ 88.4$ 44.8 10.4% 651 188.8$ 63.5$ 34.0 12.0%
Program Total 63,446 8,474.9$ 2,058.2$ 1,228.3 15,132 3,145.8$ 663.6$ 514.2 43,095 3,560.1$ 857.8$ 429.6 5,219 1,769.1$ 536.8$ 284.6
% of Program Total 12.1% 8.8% 9.1% 8.9% 7.0% 5.7% 5.2% 6.0% 13.8% 10.7% 10.3% 10.4% 12.5% 10.7% 11.8% 12.0%
Ranked
All Proj
CEC
All Projects In Process Complete and In Payment Cancelled and Withdrawn
Results by Contractor thru March 2011 Second 50
-
8/6/2019 SunCentric CSI Report May 2011
54/81
54
Project
Total
Cost Incentive CEC
% of
CEC Project
Total
Cost Incentive CEC
% of
CEC Project
Total
Cost Incentive CEC
% of
CEC Project
Total
Cost Incentive CEC
% of
CEC
MW Contractor Name - Third 50 Count $ Mil $ Mil MW MW Count $ Mil $ Mil MW MW Count $ Mil $ Mil MW MW Count $ Mil $ Mil MW MW
101 Shorebreak Energy Developers 11 9.0$ 1.8$ 1.4 0.1% 11 9.0$ 1.8$ 1.4 0.3% - -$ -$ - 0.0% - -$ -$ - 0.0%
102 JKB Development Inc 15 11.5$ 1.8$ 1.4 0.1% 5 1.7$ 0.1$ 0.3 0.1% 10 9.8$ 1.6$ 1.1 0.3% - -$ -$ - 0.0%103 Luminalt Energy Corporation 437 12.3$ 1.8$ 1.4 0.1% 115 3.0$ 0.2$ 0.4 0.1% 306 8.0$ 1.1$ 0.8 0.2% 16 1.2$ 0.5$ 0.2 0.1%
104 Nova West Solar Inc 181 10.4$ 1.8$ 1.4 0.1% 36 1.8$ 0.2$ 0.3 0.1% 125 7.3$ 1.4$ 0.9 0.2% 20 1.3$ 0.3$ 0.2 0.1%105 California Solar Electric 212 10.4$ 2.4$ 1.3 0.1% 18 1.8$ 0.3$ 0.3 0.1% 182 8.1$ 1.9$ 1.0 0.2% 12 0.5$ 0.1$ 0.1 0.0%106 Plan It Solar 254 10.1$ 1.6$ 1.3 0.1% 24 1.1$ 0.1$ 0.2 0.0% 222 8.6$ 1.4$ 1.1 0.2% 8 0.4$ 0.1$ 0.0 0.0%107 Allstate Solar Integration Inc 15 6.3$ 2.5$ 1.3 0.1% 3 0.1$ 0.0$ 0.0 0.0% 10 0.4$ 0.1$ 0.0 0.0% 2 5.8$ 2.4$ 1.2 0.4%
108 Electricare Inc 235 11.3$ 2.6$ 1.2 0.1% 6 0.3$ 0.0$ 0.0 0.0% 168 7.9$ 1.9$ 0.9 0.2% 61 3.0$ 0.7$ 0.3 0.1%109 NB Baker Electric Inc 199 9.2$ 1.4$ 1.2 0.1% 26 1.4$ 0.1$ 0.2 0.0% 169 7.6$ 1.2$ 1.0 0.2% 4 0.3$ 0.0$ 0.0 0.0%110 Collins Electrical Company Inc 3 8.3$ 2.6$ 1.2 0.1% 2 8.2$ 2.6$ 1.2 0.2% 1 0.1$ 0.0$ 0.0 0.0% - -$ -$ - 0.0%
111 Galkos Construction Inc 537 15.8$ 1.5$ 1.2 0.1% 290 9.0$ 0.8$ 0.7 0.1% 233 6.4$ 0.7$ 0.5 0.1% 14 0.4$ 0.0$ 0.0 0.0%112 Diamond Ridge Roofing Inc 204 10.3$ 1.4$ 1.2 0.1% 14 0.6$ 0.0$ 0.1 0.0% 184 9.3$ 1.3$ 1.1 0.2% 6 0.4$ 0.0$ 0.0 0.0%113 Emard's EHT dba Solar Universe Network 195 8.8$ 1.4$ 1.2 0.1% 19 0.8$ 0.1$ 0.1 0.0% 168 7.7$ 1.2$ 1.0 0.2% 8 0.3$ 0.1$ 0.0 0.0%
114 Solarecity Electric 245 10.7$ 1.7$ 1.2 0.1% 14 0.5$ 0.0$ 0.1 0.0% 219 8.9$ 1.5$ 1.0 0.2% 12 1.3$ 0.1$ 0.1 0.0%115 Natural Energy 297 10.7$ 1.6$ 1.2 0.1% 46 1.4$ 0.2$ 0.2 0.0% 232 8.4$ 1.3$ 0.9 0.2% 19 0.8$ 0.1$ 0.1 0.0%116 Power Independence Electric 160 9.3$ 2.1$ 1.2 0.1% 34 3.0$ 0.6$ 0.4 0.1% 103 5.7$ 1.4$ 0.6 0.2% 23 0.6$ 0.2$ 0.1 0.0%
117 western solar 26 8.1$ 1.7$ 1.1 0.1% 11 3.9$ 0.7$ 0.5 0.1% 13 3.2$ 0.8$ 0.4 0.1% 2 1.1$ 0.3$ 0.2 0.1%118 IEC-Corportation 8 7.2$ 2.1$ 1.1 0.1% 8 7.2$ 2.1$ 1.1 0.2% - -$ -$ - 0.0% - -$ -$ - 0.0%119 Spears Construction Inc 3 6.1$ 2.1$ 1.1 0.1% 3 6.1$ 2.1$ 1.1 0.2% - -$ -$ - 0.0% - -$ -$ - 0.0%120 Solar Service Center 180 9.6$ 1.7$ 1.1 0.1% 75 3.7$ 0.6$ 0.4 0.1% 91 5.2$ 0.9$ 0.6 0.1% 14 0.8$ 0.1$ 0.1 0.0%
121 Solarponics 174 8.7$ 1.3$ 1.1 0.1% 26 1.2$ 0.1$ 0.2 0.0% 138 6.9$ 1.1$ 0.9 0.2% 10 0.6$ 0.1$ 0.1 0.0%122 Alternative Energy Systems Inc 178 8.7$ 1.4$ 1.1 0.1% 37 1.6$ 0.1$ 0.2 0.0% 134 6.9$ 1.2$ 0.8 0.2% 7 0.2$ 0.1$ 0.0 0.0%123 M Kahn Solar Inc 30 10.2$ 2.5$ 1.1 0.1% 7 0.7$ 0.1$ 0.1 0.0% 19 3.7$ 0.9$ 0.3 0.1% 4 5.8$ 1.5$ 0.7 0.2%
124 Advanced Alternative Energy Solut ions 144 8.4$ 2.0$ 1.1 0.1% 24 1.6$ 0.5$ 0.3 0.1% 91 5.0$ 0.9$ 0.5 0.1% 29 1.7$ 0.6$ 0.3 0.1%125 West Coast Solar Energy 130 7.2$ 0.9$ 1.1 0.1% 34 2.5$ 0.2$ 0.4 0.1% 86 4.3$ 0.6$ 0.6 0.1% 10 0.4$ 0.1$ 0.1 0.0%126 Morrow-Meadows Corporation 6 6.7$ 0.8$ 1.1 0.1% 3 1.6$ 0.3$ 0.3 0.1% 2 0.4$ 0.1$ 0.1 0.0% 1 4.7$ 0.3$ 0.7 0.3%
127 AMECO 179 9.2$ 2.1$ 1.1 0.1% 11 0.5$ 0.1$ 0.1 0.0% 156 7.3$ 1.6$ 0.9 0.2% 12 1.5$ 0.3$ 0.2 0.1%128 Pacific Rim Construction 175 10.0$ 1.4$ 1.1 0.1% 65 2.6$ 0.1$ 0.3 0.1% 102 5.9$ 1.0$ 0.6 0.2% 8 1.5$ 0.3$ 0.2 0.1%129 Advanc e: Solar, Hydro, Wind Power Co. 26 5.5$ 1.9$ 1.1 0.1% 8 0.5$ 0.0$ 0.1 0.0% 10 4.8$ 1.7$ 0.9 0.2% 8 0.3$ 0.2$ 0.1 0.0%
130 Fidelity Roof Co 16 8.6$ 1.7$ 1.1 0.1% 1 0.1$ 0.0$ 0.0 0.0% 13 0.4$ 0.1$ 0.0 0.0% 2 8.0$ 1.6$ 1.0 0.4%131 K2 Solar Inc 14 8.3$ 1.6$ 1.1 0.1% 5 6.6$ 1.3$ 0.9 0.2% 7 1.4$ 0.2$ 0.2 0.0% 2 0.3$ 0.0$ 0.0 0.0%132 Heritage Solar, Inc 149 9.4$ 1.8$ 1.1 0.1% 14 0.9$ 0.1$ 0.1 0.0% 117 6.5$ 1.3$ 0.7 0.2% 18 2.1$ 0.4$ 0.2 0.1%
133 Marc Suacci 11 6.0$ 1.9$ 1.1 0.1% 2 0.1$ 0.0$ 0.0 0.0% 6 5.6$ 1.9$ 1.0 0.2% 3 0.2$ 0.0$ 0.0 0.0%134 Solar Development Inc 5 8.4$ 1.3$ 1.1 0.1% 4 7.0$ 1.0$ 0.9 0.2% 1 1.3$ 0.3$ 0.1 0.0% - -$ -$ - 0.0%135 California Solar Systems Inc 235 9.5$ 1.4$ 1.0 0.1% 38 1.4$ 0.1$ 0.2 0.0% 176 7.0$ 1.1$ 0.8 0.2% 21 1.1$ 0.2$ 0.1 0.0%
136 System 3 Inc 3 6.3$ 2.3$ 1.0 0.1% 1 6.0$ 2.3$ 1.0 0.2% 2 0.2$ 0.1$ 0.0 0.0% - -$ -$ - 0.0%137 Vanir Construction Management Inc 5 -$ 1.8$ 1.0 0.1% 5 -$ 1.8$ 1.0 0.2% - -$ -$ - 0.0% - -$ -$ - 0.0%
138 Future Energy Corporation 305 11.2$ 1.5$ 1.0 0.1% 20 0.8$ 0.1$ 0.1 0.0% 278 10.2$ 1.4$ 0.9 0.2% 7 0.2$ 0.0$ 0.0 0.0%139 Perpetual Power LLC 1 5.3$ 0.8$ 1.0 0.1% - -$ -$ - 0.0% - -$ -$ - 0.0% 1 5.3$ 0.8$ 1.0 0.4%
140 AEE Solar 3 6.0$ 2.3$ 1.0 0.1% 1 5.9$ 2.3$ 1.0 0.2% 1 0.0$ 0.0$ 0.0 0.0% 1 0.1$ 0.0$ 0.0 0.0%141 Ambassador Energy Inc 144 7.4$ 1.3$ 1.0 0.1% 29 1.6$ 0.2$ 0.2 0.0% 102 5.2$ 1.0$ 0.6 0.1% 13 0.6$ 0.2$ 0.1 0.0%142 Arthur Grover Widner 1 3.9$ 1.9$ 1.0 0.1% 1 3.9$ 1.9$ 1.0 0.2% - -$ -$ - 0.0% - -$ -$ - 0.0%
143 Jet Propulsion Laboratory 1 10.0$ 2.1$ 1.0 0.1% - -$ -$ - 0.0% - -$ -$ - 0.0% 1 10.0$ 2.1$ 1.0 0.4%144 Pacific Power Renewables Inc 1 5.0$ 1.2$ 1.0 0.1% 1 5.0$ 1.2$ 1.0 0.2% - -$ -$ - 0.0% - -$ -$ - 0.0%145 West Hills Construction 22 9.7$ 2.0$ 1.0 0.1% 1 5.5$ 1.0$ 0.4 0.1% 16 3.9$ 1.0$ 0.5 0.1% 5 0.3$ 0.1$ 0.0 0.0%
146 Vidortx Inc DBA Aircon Energy 8 9.0$ 2.2$ 1.0 0.1% 1 6.5$ 1.5$ 0.7 0.1% - -$ -$ - 0.0% 7 2.6$ 0.8$ 0.3 0.1%147 Helix Electric Inc 1 5.0$ 1.9$ 1.0 0.1% 1 5.0$ 1.9$ 1.0 0.2% - -$ -$ - 0.0% - -$ -$ - 0.0%148 MC Construction 3 8.9$ 2.4$ 1.0 0.1% - -$ -$ - 0.0% 2 7.7$ 2.1$ 0.8 0.2% 1 1.3$ 0.3$ 0.1 0.0%
149 REP Energy Inc 5 6.8$ 0.6$ 1.0 0.1% 5 6.8$ 0.6$ 1.0 0.2% - -$ -$ - 0.0% - -$ -$ - 0.0%150 Renewable Power Solutions Inc 156 8.1$ 1.1$ 0.9 0.1% 14 2.1$ 0.1$ 0.3 0.1% 136 5.6$ 1.0$ 0.6 0.1% 6 0.4$ 0.1$ 0.0 0.0%
Total Third 50 5,548 423.0$ 87.1$ 55.9 4.5% 1,119 142.7$ 31.8$ 21.6 4.2% 4,031 212.9$ 40.1$ 25.1 5.9% 398 67.4$ 15.2$ 9.2 3.2%
Program Total 63,446 8,474.9$ 2,058.2$ 1,228.3 15,132 3,145.8$ 663.6$ 514.2 43,095 3,560.1$ 857.8$ 429.6 5,219 1,769.1$ 536.8$ 284.6
% of Program Total 8.7% 5.0% 4.2% 4.5% 7.4% 4.5% 4.8% 4.2% 9.4% 6.0% 4.7% 5.9% 7.6% 3.8% 2.8% 3.2%
Ranked
All Proj
CEC
All Projects In Process Complete and In Payment Cancelled and Withdrawn
Results by Contractor thru March 2011 Third 50
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55
All MW DC In Process and CompletePV Manufacturers thru March 2011
There have been changes in leadership during the program based mostly on the decision to supply the marketand price. Today MW DC In Process is led by Chinese manufacturers who are surging to the front. As seen inComplete, some of the former leaders are falling behind. 592 MW DC are in process, 493 MW DC are complete.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
MWDC
In Process
Complete
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56
All Completed MW DC by Quarterby PV Manufacturer Q1 2007 thru Q1 2011
Q1 '07 Q2 '07 Q3 '07 Q4 '07 Q1 '08 Q2 '08 Q3 '08 Q4 '08 Q1 '09 Q2 '09 Q3 '09 Q4 '09 Q1 '10 Q2 '10 Q3 '10 Q4 '10 Q1 '11
All Others - 0.0 0.2 1.0 3.4 8.5 6.4 3.5 7.6 9.0 5.8 7.0 5.7 5.8 5.1 8.4 3.4
Siliken - - - - - - - - - - 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 1.0 0.6
Schott Solar - - 0.0 0.0 1.2 1.8 0.0 0.7 2.2 0.7 1.3 0.2 0.2 0.7 0.9 0.3 0.7
Mitsubishi - 0.0 0.3 0.6 1.7 1.7 2.5 2.3 6.7 6.1 0.9 0.3 2.2 2.6 1.5 0.8 0.8
Sanyo Electric - 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.9 1.3 1.6 2.2 3.9 3.0 1.7 1.7 2.4 1.8 1.8 0.9 0.8
REC Solar - - - - - - - 0.0 0.3 1.3 0.3 0.9 1.2 1.5 2.0 1.4 1.0ET Solar - - - - - - - - - 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 1.6 1.1
BP Solar - 0.1 0.3 1.0 1.6 3.9 2.2 2.3 2.8 2.7 0.9 2.2 1.6 1.2 1.7 5.7 1.6
SolarWorld - 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.9 0.6 2.5 8.0 1.4 1.8 0.3 0.6 4.0 2.2 1.6
Schuco - - 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.8 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 1.4 0.8 1.1 1.6
Yingli - - - - - 0.7 0.4 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.5 0.1 1.0 1.3 0.7 2.9 2.1
Canadian Solar - - - - - - - - 0.4 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.6 1.5 3.0 3.0
Kyocera Solar - 0.3 0.2 0.7 1.6 2.9 2.3 3.7 2.8 2.3 3.3 2.4 2.7 1.6 2.2 6.3 3.6
Sharp 0.0 0.1 1.1 1.7 2.4 2.7 2.4 5.7 5.7 10.4 3.7 3.2 4.7 5.6 7.8 7.2 3.8
SunPower - 0.1 1.0 2.8 2.8 5.0 6.9 9.0 7.5 13.9 11.7 9.3 9.5 7.0 5.0 5.1 5.2
Suntech - 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 3.0 0.5 3.9 1.2 3.7 3.4 5.2 4.0 7.4
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
MWDC
Ranked by Q1 11 resultsLargest MW starts at the bottom
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57
All Completed MW DC and % Share byPV Manufacturer January 2007 thru March 2011
493 MW DC Completed
SunPower101.8, 21%
Sharp68.2, 14%
Evergreen42.3, 9%
Kyocera38.8, 8%
Suntech33.3, 7%
BP Solar31.7, 6%Mitsubishi 31.1, 6%
SolarWorld 26.1, 5%
Sanyo 25.6, 5%
Canadian Solar 11.2, 2%
Schott Solar 10.8, 2%
Yingli 10.1, 2%
REC Solar 9.9, 2%
Andalay 7.7, 2%
Schuco 7.0, 1%
First Solar 6.2, 1%
Conergy 4.3, 1%
ET Solar 3.7, 1%
Siliken 2.8 1%Trina 2.7, 1%
All Others 17.5, 4%
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Suntech92.5, 16%
Yingli83.4, 14%
SunPower80.5, 14%
Sharp66.6, 11%Trina
50.1, 9%
SolarWorld 40.8, 7%
Kyocera Solar 29.2, 5%
REC Solar 16.2, 3%
Canadian Solar 14.7, 2%
Mitsubishi 7.8, 1%
Schott Solar 7.7, 1%
BP Solar 7.2, 1%
Evergreen 7.2, 1%Schuco 7.1, 1%
First Solar 6.9, 1%
DelSolar 6.6, 1%
Solarfun 6.1, 1%
Chint Solar 6.0, 1%
ET Solar 5.6, 1%
Siliken 5.6, 1%
All Others 41.3, 7%
58
All MW DC Now In Process and % Share byPV Manufacturer thru March 2011
592 MW DC In Process
Note: At the end of March 2011the PV manufacturers had theseMW assigned to projects thatwere In Process. In the past PVmodules have been changedduring the project based onavailability and other factors.Projects may also be cancelled.This snapshot represents only apotential outcome.
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59
All MW DC In Process and CompleteInverter Manufacturers thru March 2011
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
MWDC
In Process
Complete
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Q1 '07 Q2 '07 Q3 '07 Q4 '07 Q1 '08 Q2 '08 Q3 '08 Q4 '08 Q1 '09 Q2 '09 Q3 '09 Q4 '09 Q1 '10 Q2 '10 Q3 '10 Q4 '10 Q1 '11
All Others - 0.03 0.09 0.09 0.19 0.12 0.08 0.12 0.20 0.11 0.26 0.39 0.58 0.39 0.39 0.33 0.25
Solectria - - - - 0.09 0.02 0.19 0.05 2.66 1.40 0.34 0.21 0.61 0.52 0.51 0.28 0.34
Power-One - - - 0.00 - 0.03 0.04 0.01 0.03 0.03 0.01 0.03 0.03 0.07 0.06 0.26 0.36Kaco - - 0.00 0.02 0.02 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.16 0.14 0.07 0.07 0.11 0.11 0.40 0.72 0.39
Xantrex - 0.37 0.77 1.83 1.93 4.37 8.64 11.19 13.52 20.14 10.96 5.39 2.57 2.38 1.02 4.67 0.87
SatCon 0.04 - 0.27 1.25 5.64 13.87 6.68 7.02 8.76 20.93 5.82 4.89 4.32 3.28 6.84 9.31 3.09
PV Powered - 0.02 0.05 0.28 0.38 0.72 0.41 0.84 0.84 1.11 1.22 1.33 2.73 4.39 2.16 4.35 3.34
SunPower - 0.11 0.81 1.97 2.12 2.60 2.89 2.92 5.00 3.93 3.98 4.75 5.25 3.42 4.41 4.50 3.47
Enphase - - - - - 0.01 0.02 0.14 0.24 0.35 0.34 0.62 1.28 1.67 3.00 3.33 3.81
Fronius - 0.10 0.70 1.96 2.05 2.37 2.31 2.38 2.56 2.13 2.87 3.43 3.91 3.60 4.22 3.48 4.38
Advanced Energy - - - - - 0.31 - - 1.05 0.00 1.16 2.32 1.14 4.18 4.03 6.03 6.18
SMA - 0.10 1.02 3.23 4.19 5.34 4.66 5.69 8.78 6.98 7.79 7.77 11.95 12.59 13.24 14.01 9.87
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
MWDC
60
All Completed MW DC by Quarterby Inverter Manufacturer Q1 2007 thru Q1 2011
Ranked by Q1 11 resultsLargest MW starts at the bottom
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61
All Completed MW DC and % Share by InverterManufacturer January 2007 thru March 2011
484 MW DC Completed
* SunPower does notmake inverters butprivate labels themfrom variousmanufacturers
SMA117.2, 24%
SatCon102.0, 21%
Xantrex90.6, 19%
SunPower52.1, 11%
Fronius
42.5, 9%
Advanced Energy26.4, 5%
PV Powered 24.2 , 5%
Enphase 14.8, 3%
Solectria 7.2, 1%
Kaco 2.4, 1%
Power-One 1.0, 0%
All Others 3.6, 1%
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SatCon Technology294.7, 51%
Advanced Energy **73.1, 13%
SMA58.6, 10%
PV Powered46.4, 8%
Fronius 25.9, 4%
SunPower 20.1, 4%
Solectria 18.8, 3%
Enphase 17.8, 3%
Xantrex 14.0, 2%
Power-One 5.4, 1%Kaco 2.8, 1%
Siemens 1.1, 0%
All Others 1.8, 0%
62
All MW DC Now In Process and % Share byInverter Manufacturer thru March 2011
581 MW DC In Process
* SunPower does not makeinverters but private labelsthem from variousmanufacturers
** Advanced Energy acquired
PV Powered
Note: At the end of March 2011the Inverter manufacturers hadthese MW assigned to projectsthat were In Process. In the pastinverters have been changedduring the project based onavailability and other factors.Projects may also be cancelled.This snapshot represents only apotential outcome.
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63
Ownership in CEC MW of completed Non-Residentialand Residential projects thru March 2011
Not ThirdParty
Owned109.147%
Third PartyOwned125.453%
Non-Residential
234.5 CEC MW Total
Not ThirdParty
Owned
162.983%
Third PartyOwned
32.217%
Residential
195.1 CEC MW Total
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Cumulative Ownership of confirmed Residential projectsin CEC MW January 2007 thru March 2011
64
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
0
50
100
150
200
250
Jun-07
Sep-07
Dec-07
Mar-08
Jun-08
Sep-08
Dec-08
Mar-09
Jun-09
Sep-09
Dec-09
Mar-10
Jun-10
Sep-10
Dec-10
Mar-11
%TPO
CECMW
Not ThirdParty Owned
Third PartyOwned
% ThirdParty Owned
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Ownership of confirmed Residential projectsin CEC MW January 2007 thru March 2011
65
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
0
4
8
12
16
20
24
Q1 '07 Q2 '07 Q3 '07 Q4 '07 Q1 '08 Q2 '08 Q3 '08 Q4 '08 Q1 '09 Q2 '09 Q3 '09 Q4 '09 Q1 '10 Q2 '10 Q3 '10 Q4 '10 Q1 '11
%TPO
CECMW
Third Party Owned Not Third Party Owned % Third Party Owned
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0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
Q1 '07 Q2 '07 Q3 '07 Q4 '07 Q1 '08 Q2 '08 Q3 '08 Q4 '08 Q1 '09 Q2 '09 Q3 '09 Q4 '09 Q1 '10 Q2 '10 Q3 '10 Q4 '10 Q1 '11
%TPO
# ofProj
Third Party Owned Not Third Party Owned % Third Party Owned
Ownership of confirmed Residential projectsNumber of projects January 2007 thru March 2011
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Cumulative Ownership of confirmed Non-Residentialprojects in CEC MW January 2007 thru March 2011
67
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Jun-07
Sep-07
Dec-07
Mar-08
Jun-08
Sep-08
Dec-08
Mar-09
Jun-09
Sep-09
Dec-09
Mar-10
Jun-10
Sep-10
Dec-10
Mar-11
%TPO
CECMW
Not Third
Party Owned
Third Party
Owned
% ThirdParty Owned
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Ownership of confirmed Non-Residential systemsin CEC MW January 2007 thru March 2011
68
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Q2 '07 Q3 '07 Q4 '07 Q1 '08 Q2 '08 Q3 '08 Q4 '08 Q1 '09 Q2 '09 Q3 '09 Q4 '09 Q1 '10 Q2 '10 Q3 '10 Q4 '10 Q1 '11
%TPO
CECMW
Third Party Owned Not Third Party Owned % Third Party Owned
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Ownership of confirmed Non-Residential projectsNumber of Projects January 2007 thru March 2011
69
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Q2 '07 Q3 '07 Q4 '07 Q1 '08 Q2 '08 Q3 '08 Q4 '08 Q1 '09 Q2 '09 Q3 '09 Q4 '09 Q1 '10 Q2 '10 Q3 '10 Q4 '10 Q1 '11
%TPO
# ofProj
Third Party Owned Not Third Party Owned % Third Party Owned
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Of the projects that are In Process how many MW willlikely be completed?
70
Of the 514 MW In Process at the end of March 2011 we project about 300 MW will ultimately be completed. This meansthat at the end of March 2011 the program has enough activity to complete about 730 MW or 42% of program objective.
430
514
285
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
Dec-06
Mar-07
Jun-07
Sep-07
Dec-07
Mar-08
Jun-08
Sep-08
Dec-08
Mar-09
Jun-09
Sep-09
Dec-09
Mar-10
Jun-10
Sep-10
Dec-10
Mar-11
Jun-11
Sep-11
Dec-11
Mar-12
Jun-12
Sep-12
Dec-12
CECMW
Complete and In Payment In Process Cancelled and Withdrawn
Year end 2016 Objective: Complete 1,750MW
Future Years
498
730
Forecast
300MWCompleteof 514MWIn Process
1,228
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0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
$1,400
$1,600
$1,800
CECMW
Inc$ Mil
71
The CSIs cumulative $ Incentive andMW budget plan
$ incentivebudget plan
The program has a budget of about $1,748 million to complete 1,750 MW. The plan is not time based, demand causesthe change in Step. As the Steps increase the program is designed to provide less incentive for each MW.
Step 2 Step 3 Step 4 Step 5 Step 6 Step 7 Step 8 Step 9 Step 10
$ Million Incentiveeach Step
$208 $262 $294 $295 $249 $166 $104 $85 $83
MW each Step 70 100 130 160 190 215 250 285 350
MWbudget
plan
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0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
$1,400
$1,600
$1,800
CECMW
Inc$ Mil
72
Cumulative Incentive and MW budget planwith actual MW thru March 2011
$ incentivebudget plan
Step 2 Step 3 Step 4 Step 5 Step 6 Step 7 Step 8 Step 9 Step 10
$ Million Incentiveeach Step
$208 $262 $294 $295 $249 $166 $104 $85 $83
MW each Step 70 100 130 160 190 215 250 285 350
430 MW Completedthru March 11
At the end of March 2011 the program had completed 430 CEC MW.
MWbudget
plan
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0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
$1,400
$1,600
$1,800
CECMW
Inc$ Mil
73
Cumulative Incentive and MW budget plan with$ Incentive budget and actual MW results thru March 11
$ incentivebudget plan
430 MW Completedthru March 11
The program planned to spend about $1,005 million to complete 430 MW. A one time incentive payment ismade to small system owners. Money is reserved for performance based incentive (PBI) systems of any sizeand is paid to the system owner over 5 years.
Step 2 Step 3 Step 4 Step 5 Step 6 Step 7 Step 8 Step 9 Step 10
$ Million Incentiveeach Step
$208 $262 $294 $295 $249 $166 $104 $85 $83
MW each Step 70 100 130 160 190 215 250 285 350
MWbudget
plan
$1,005m budget tocomplete 430 MW
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0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
$1,400
$1,600
$1,800
CECMW
Inc$ Mil
74
Cumulative Incentive and MW budget plan withactual $ incentive and MW results thru March 2011
$ incentivebudget plan
In fact the program did not spend $1,005, but spent, or reserved for PBI payments $858 million. This is $147 million lessthan budget, and a positive variance. This situation was predictable because early on a policy was put in place thatallowed cancelled MW to come back into the program. When the cancelled MW are re-reserved they receive the Stepincentive available then, which is frequently much lower.
430 MW Completedthru March 11
$1,005m budget tocomplete 430 MW
$858m actuallyspent
Step 2 Step 3 Step 4 Step 5 Step 6 Step 7 Step 8 Step 9 Step 10
$ Million Incentiveeach Step
$208 $262 $294 $295 $249 $166 $104 $85 $83
MW each Step 70 100 130 160 190 215 250 285 350
MWbudget
plan
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75
Incentive and MW forecast including projectsIn Process at the end of March 2011
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
$1,400
$1,600
$1,800
CECMW
Inc$ Mil
$ incentivebudget plan
730 MW
SunCentric estimate ofcompletions includingMW In Process
$1,250
$1,370 million budgetto complete 730 MW
430 MW
$858m
$1,005m
Chart 70 shows that including projects in process at the end of March 2011, 730 MW will be completed sometime in thefuture. The program has a budget of about $1,370 million to complete 730 MW. We estimate that only $1,250 million willbe needed to complete 730 MW. The program will be under budget by $120 million.
Step 2 Step 3 Step 4 Step 5 Step 6 Step 7 Step 8 Step 9 Step 10
$ Million Incentiveeach Step
$208 $262 $294 $295 $249 $166 $104 $85 $83
MW each Step 70 100 130 160 190 215 250 285 350
MWbudget
plan
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76
Incentive and MW forecast at the end of 2016
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
$1,400
$1,600
$1,800
CECMW
Inc$ Mil
$ incentivebudget plan
730 MW
$1,250
$1,370mMW
budget
plan
430 MW
$858m
$1,005m
We project that 1,100 MW will be completed at year end 2016 the sunset date for the program. The program has abudget of about $1,573 million to complete 1,100 MW. We estimate that only $1,460 million will be needed to complete1,100 MW. The program will be under budget by $113 million.
Step 2 Step 3 Step 4 Step 5 Step 6 Step 7 Step 8 Step 9 Step 10
$ Million Incentiveeach Step
$208 $262 $294 $295 $249 $166 $104 $85 $83
MW each Step 70 100 130 160 190 215 250 285 350
1,100 MW
SunCentric estimateof completions atYE 2016
$1,573 million budgetto complete 1,100 MW
$1,460
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0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Dec-06
Mar-07
Jun-07
Sep-07
Dec-07
Mar-08
Jun-08
Sep-08
Dec-08
Mar-09
Jun-09
Sep-09
Dec-09
Mar-10
Jun-10
Sep-10
Dec-10
Mar-11
Jun-11
Sep-11
Dec-11
CECMW
Total PG&E SCE CCSE
77
Forecast
159MW
in 2011
YE 200713MW
YE 2009252MW
YE 2010
396MW
YE 2011
555MW
Total89MW
in 2008
Total150MWin 2009
YE 2008102MW
179MW
307MW
69MW
Total144MWin 2010
We forecast 159 CEC MW will be completed in 2011. This will bring the total completed to 555 CEC MW, or about 32% ofobjective at the half way point of the program. PG&E will be at 40%, SCE will be at 22% and CCSE will be at 38% of theirpart of the CSIs program objective.
Year end 2011 forecast of completions by Utility
YE 2016 PG&E objective: Complete 764.8MW
YE 2016 SCE objective: Complete 805.0MW
YE 2016 CCSE objective: Complete 180.3MW
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78/81
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Dec-06
Mar-07
Jun-07
Sep-07
Dec-07
Mar-08
Jun-08
Sep-08
Dec-08
Mar-09
Jun-09
Sep-09
Dec-09
Mar-10
Jun-10
Sep-10
Dec-10
Mar-11
Jun-11
Sep-11
Dec-11
CECMW
Total Residential Non-Residential78
Year end 2011 forecast of completions for theResidential and Non-Residential programs
We forecast 159 CEC MW will be completed in 2011. This will bring the program total to 555 CEC MW or about 32% ofobjective at the half way point of the program. The Residential program will reach 46% and the Non-Residential programwill reach 24% of the CSIs program objective.
YE 200713MW
YE 2009252MW
YE 2010
396MW
YE 2011
555MW
Total89MW
in 2008
Total150MWin 2009
YE 2008102MW
287MW
268MW
Total144MWin 2010
YE 2016 Residential Objective: Complete 578MWYE 2016 Non-Residential Objective: Complete 1,173MW Forecast
159MW
in 2011
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79/81
730
498
1,250
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
Estimate of results based on current activity Estimate of activity required to reach programobjective
CECMW
Complete Cancelled
How many more MW of reservation requests will beneeded to reach the 1,750 MW completion requirement?
79
Our current projection is that about 58% of all projects requesting a reservation will be completed. This means that 42%will drop out. At these ratios the program needs about 1,771 MW more new reservation requests, 3,000 MW in total, toachieve 1,750 MW of completions by the end of 2016. Because projects take 6 to 12 months to complete these reservationswill need to be issued not later than the middle of 2016.
1,228 MW ofReservation Requests
so far
3,000 MW ofReservations Requestsmay be needed in total
1,771 MW MoreReservation
Requests
1,750Complete
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80/81
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Jan-15
Jan-16
Jan-17
CECMW 1,900MW
Reservation Requestsforecast
80
Forecast of Reservation Requests at the endof the CSI in 2016
As shown on Chart 79, the program will need a significant increase in Reservation Requests (demand) to allow any chanceof reaching the 1,750 MW objective. Our estimate is that in total 3,000 MW of reservation requests will be needed. Basedon declining incentives and other factors we see program demand softening and forecast the program will have about1,900 MW of reservation requests by mid year 2016.
3,000MWReservation Requests needed
based on completion rate
1,229MW ofReservation Requeststhru March 2011
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81/81
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
J J J J J J J J J J J J J J J J J
CECMW
Forecast of Completed CEC MW at the endof the CSI in 2016
Forecast
1,750MWComplete by
Mid 2022
YE 2016 ObjectiveComplete 1,750MW
430MW Completethru March 2011
The program is not completing MW at the rate needed to achieve the 1,750 MW objective at the end of 2016. Our forecastis that the program will complete 1,100 MW by the end of 2016. If the sunset date was lifted and the program was allowedto continue, we estimate that 1,750 might be completed by the middle of 2022.
Forecast1,100MWComplet