6/13/2016Updated

Dr. James DuncanJune, 2016

Summer 2016 Expectations for Energy

Crude (WTI)Natural Gas (NG)

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL

1980 Present

Cautionary Statement

The following presentation includes forward-looking statements. These statements relate to future events, such as anticipated revenues,

earnings, business strategies, competitive position or other aspects of our operations, operating results or the industries or markets in which we

operate or participate in general. Actual outcomes and results may differ materially from what is expressed or forecast in such forward-looking

statements. These statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks, uncertainties and assumptions that may prove

to be incorrect and are difficult to predict such as oil and gas prices; operational hazards and drilling risks; potential failure to achieve, and

potential delays in achieving expected reserves or production levels from existing and future oil and gas development projects; unsuccessful

exploratory activities; unexpected cost increases or technical difficulties in constructing, maintaining or modifying company facilities;

international monetary conditions and exchange controls; potential liability for remedial actions under existing or future environmental

regulations or from pending or future litigation; limited access to capital or significantly higher cost of capital related to illiquidity or uncertainty in

the domestic or international financial markets; general domestic and international economic and political conditions, as well as changes in tax,

environmental and other laws applicable to ConocoPhillips’ business and other economic, business, competitive and/or regulatory factors

affecting ConocoPhillips’ business generally as set forth in ConocoPhillips’ filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). We

caution you not to place undue reliance on our forward-looking statements, which are only as of the date of this presentation or as otherwise

indicated, and we expressly disclaim any responsibility for updating such information.

Use of non-GAAP financial information – This presentation may include non-GAAP financial measures, which help facilitate comparison of

company operating performance across periods and with peer companies. Any non-GAAP measures included herein will be accompanied by a

reconciliation to the nearest corresponding GAAP measure on our website at www.conocophillips.com/nongaap.

Cautionary Note to U.S. Investors – The SEC permits oil and gas companies, in their filings with the SEC, to disclose only proved, probable and

possible reserves. We use the term "resource" in this presentation that the SEC’s guidelines prohibit us from including in filings with the SEC.

U.S. investors are urged to consider closely the oil and gas disclosures in our Form 10-K and other reports and filings with the SEC. Copies are

available from the SEC and from the ConocoPhillips website.

2

3

Interconnected Global Risk

Domestic Focus

5

North America Industry – Energy Focus

Spending Drivers

Challenges

• Coal Gen/Coal Mining

• Steel Producers

• Mining

• LNG - NGL

• Gas Processing

• Crude Pipelines

• Oil Export Terminals

Opportunities

• Natural Gas Gen Capacity

• Renewable Energy

• Automotive/Tier Suppliers

• Mfg. Plastics

• Refineries

• Petrochemical

• Big Pharma-Biotech

• Food & Beverage

Stronger Dollar Impacts Export Industries

Stronger Economy Favors Winners

Global Oil Summary

7 Source: Bloomberg/US Department of Energy/Energy Information Agency (EIA)

NYMEX WTI Monthly Out of 1983

World Consumption of Oil and Non-OPEC Production GrowthMillion Barrels Per Day

World Liquid Fuels Production and Consumption Balance

• Signposts for next steps?

• How low will prices go?

• How long will they stay there?

• Factors that effect the above…

• Global Consumption Increase

• Global Economy

• Currency Impacts on

Supply/Demand

EIA Forecast

EIA Forecast

Note:

• Implied stock change is not all stock build.

• EIA’s forecast

Weekly Crude

Crude Oil - WTI

Large imbalances force adjustments through large and sudden movements in price

9

Source: ICE, Blacklight Research

1513151511111315192123

3843

60

4851

30343334

69

433736

52

75

53

4240

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Jan

-14

Feb

-14

Mar

-14

Ap

r-1

4

May

-14

Jun

-14

Jul-

14

Au

g-1

4

Sep

-14

Oct

-14

No

v-1

4

Dec

-14

Jan

-15

Feb

-15

Mar

-15

Ap

r-1

5

May

-15

Jun

-15

Jul-

15

Au

g-1

5

Sep

-15

Oct

-15

No

v-1

5

Dec

-15

Jan

-16

Feb

-16

Mar

-16

Ap

r-1

6

May

-16

Realized volatility, ICE Brent spot price%, annualized from daily changes at settlement

Full-history mean (1988-current)31.9%

All-time low(1988-2015)

94%-ilesince 1988

96%-ilesince 1988

97%-ilesince 1988

> 90%-

75% to 90%-ile

Above normal regime

Below normal regime

Where Does More Oil Come Online?

June 13,

201610

Natural Gas Summary

North American Natural Gas Production and Storage

12

Looking For A Production

Trend-Change

Source: Wood Mackenzie/ US Department of Energy/Baker Hughes

• The count of U.S. active oil rigs fell 8 in

the past week to 343.

• The total U.S. rig count, which includes

a drop of 1 natural gas rig to 88, fell by

9 to 431, the lowest it has been since

Baker Hughes began tracking rig count

in 1949.

• Rig Count was over 1,000 this time last

year.

$748bn Pre-FID

$148bn Under Construction

Aus, USA, Rus, Mal, Ind, Alg

139 MTPANew LNG Capacity

2015-2019

Infrastructure Investment OutlookLNG Global Build Out

$160.4bnFallout in last 12 months

2015 - onwards

Supply-side:• Australia, North America to lead onshore and offshore liquefaction

capacity (volume & capex).

• Australasia, Africa and Middle East will account for 60% of total forecasted liquefaction capacity as planned.

• North America will become a net exporter of gas in two years.

Demand: LNG Regasification Terminal Development$53 Billion 126 Projects

• 30 Potential New Markets• 17 Countries are Expanding Import Capability • New Emerging Markets: Middle East, Africa, Southeast Asia.

0

5

10

15

20

25

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Bill

ion

s

Southeast Asia

South Asia

Middle East

Latin America

Europe

Africa*

Region

New LNG Regasification Development Excluding: China, Japan, & South Korea by Startup Year

© 2016, Industrial Info Resources, Inc., 2277 Plaza Drive Suite 300, Sugar Land, Texas 77479

New Supply required by

2022

Historically Competitive Gas Pricing Gas Fundamentals are Reshaping Gas Investment Strategies

14

US Lake Charles

$3.5

UK$9.3

Belgium

$8.9

India

$14.3

Altamira

$14

Rio de Janeiro

$14.2

Bahia Blanca

$14.5

Japa

n

$15

Korea

$14.8

China

$14.1

Spain

$12.1

$6.28

Worldwide LNG Landed Prices Oct 2014

Versus FERC October 2015 estimates U$/MMBtu

US Cove Point

$2.8

Source: US FERC

$3.18

$2.20

$6.71

$6.75

$6.29

$6.27

$6.84

$6.63

$6.78

$6.78

$6.77

But natural gas economics have changed for LNG exports.

$/m

mb

tu

-5

5

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

One year ago Now

Implied margin on U.S. LNG Exports to Asia

$5.50 Jan

2016

$12.4 Billion to $19.5 Billion

$5.0 Billion to $12.3 Billion

$4.9 Billion to $1.6 Billion

$2.0 Million to $1.5 Billion960 Capital Projects worth $104.36 Billion

& 717 Maintenance Outages worth $3.48 Billion

What’s the outlook for the Power Industry in 2016?Capital & Maintenance Project Activity

126 High-Probability Projects Valued at $30.50bn

29% Confidence Factor of $102.6bn Pipeline

Power Generation Industry

U.S. Wind Energy Spending (2016 – 2020)

141 High-Probability Projects Valued at $18.97 Billion

54% Confidence Factor of a $34.5bn Pipeline

Power Generation Industry

U.S. PV Solar Spending (2016 – 2020)

Hot Spots for Solar

156 High-Probability Projects Valued at $45.4bn

58% Confidence Factor of $77.7bn Pipeline

Power Generation Industry

U.S. Natural Gas Spending (2016 – 2020)

Power Generation IndustryWhat’s the outlook for the Coal sector?

$4,642

$958

$1,503

$647$830

Investment$ Millions

Environmental In Plant Capex

Maintenance Fuel Conversion

Closure

70 Units

68 Units

20 Units

27 Units

18 Units

12 Units

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

20

15

20

16

20

17

20

18

20

19

20

20

Coal-Fired Capacity Retirements (MW)

Is There A Future For Coal-Fired Plants?

Weak La Niña Summers – June-August

Analog Blend September-October Temperatures

Another View Of Offshore CONUS Seawater Temperatures

What Does It All Mean?

2016 – Congregation of Tracks In GOM

• We’ve already had one tropical system in 2016.

• Hurricane Alex formed on January 13 and reached 85 mph.

• Average (1981-2010) – 12.1 Named Storms/6.4 Hurricanes/2.7 Major Hurricanes

Last Two La Niña Winter’s After an El Niño

26

The Deficit Reduction Act 1993

Clinton’s Plan

Deficit Reduction –$474B

Tax Increases - $300B

Spending Cuts - $174B

House Plan

Deficit Reduction –$343B

Tax Increases - $246B

Spending Cuts - $97B

Senate Plan

Deficit Reduction –$576B

Tax Increases - $279B

Spending Cuts - $297B

What We Got Plan

Deficit Reduction –$495B

Tax Increases - $244B

Spending Cuts - $182B

Save $69B

Garden Variety Bear Market?

June 13,

201627

Current Market Signals Year-Over-Year

S&P 500 -4.52%Dow Jones -6.02%

Ethanol -6.5%

Precious Metals Down 20% - 40%

Gasoline & Heating OilDown 13% - 45%

Crude Oil Down 42%

Natural Gas Down 35%

VIX +25.9%

Source: CME-NYMEX/CBOT28

4.3%

4.8%

2.4%

2.9%

2%

2.2%

0.8%

1.3%

3.4%

4.2% 4.6%

4.9%

2.5%

2.7%

3.2%

2.7%

-2.5%

-3.7%

7.3%

7.8%

-0.7%

-3.8%

6.7%

6.9%

Global GDP OutlookOutlook is for an “OK-ish” 2016.

Developed Emerging Markets / BRIC

1.5%

1.7%

Increase in Mergers

& Acquisitions ?

6% ?

Rising Corporate

Debt Levels

Global Spending Forecast 2016Asia (minus Middle East) Accounts for 48% of total All Industry Spending Forecast

$31bn

$97bn

$150bn

$200bn

$220bn

$269bn

$473bn

1,320

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Global 12 Month ForecastAll Industries ($bns)

Series2

Series1

-1.5%

-2%

-0.1%

0.6%

6.3%

1.8%

1.6%

$2.76 trillion Active Forecasted Spend

1.5%

Spending Forecasts calculates:

Actual Spend – [Future Plant Closures – Low Probability Projects]

x

Growth Factors (GDP)

- +x

Asia

North America

Europe

Middle East

South America

Africa

Oceania

Middle America

United States Industrial Spending Outlook

2016 Overall Spending Forecast $321.7 BillionRepresenting a 5.16% Increase from 2015

2016 Growth Accelerator

$15.8Billion

Increase

2015 Growth Accelerator

$27.9Billion

Increase 0.56%

6.65%

10.04%

5.16%

-4.30%

0.05%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

$260.7 $278.0 $305.9 $321.7 $307.9 $308.0

$0

$50

$100

$150

$200

$250

$300

$350

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

ACTUALS 2016 O&G Refining CPI Power

South Asia

3% 8% 4% 17%

East Asia

8% 11% 49% 38%

SE Asia 6% 15% 10% 9%

W. Asia 8% 17% 4% 6%

Europe 9% 3% 3% 10%

Russia 9% 5% 4% 1%

Africa 10% 4% 4% 4%

Latam 7% 9% 1% 6%

Others 8% 14% 6% 2%

2016 Spending Heat MapThe Perfect Storm ….. Creates Many Waves of Opportunity

US 17% 10% 14% 6%

Canada 15% 4% <1% 1%

Global $3 Tr $584bn $102bn $303bn $1,909bn

Asia bloc will continue to be the growth engine

going forward … but at a slower pace and

headwinds are building.

Higher levels of dollar dominated debt will slow

growth and could have major impacts on some

emerging markets.

Private sector debt has risen from 73% of GDP to

107%.

75% of debt liability within corporates.

Higher US interest rates will result in a flight for

yield out of emerging markets.

Strong dollar resulting in emerging market

currency deflation.

Lower crude prices will continue to hurt crude

exporting countries and divide OPEC further.

Fiscal budgets under strain leading to cut back

in capex and some social infrastructure

programs.

Geopolitical tensions could result in increasing

levels of crude production in the Middle East.

ISM Manufacturing drops to 48.2 SAAR in 2015, up 2% from 2014

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) Econ-Cycle

Today, the U.S. is in its 7th year of Economic

Expansion since the bottom of the trough in June

2009.

Trough - June 2009

Full Employment

Mid-Cycle 2016

Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index

96.5 – Slightly above 2014

13% Probability of Recession (16% -14, 21%-13, 31%-12)

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Employment Situation 5.0% Unemployment

62.6% Participation, 2.5% Wage Rate Growth.

Construction Put-In-Place overall construction is

growing at a rate of 10.5% (3Q: 13.7%)

Single-family homes are tracking 490K units

SAAR in 2015, up 9.1% from 2014

Federal Reserve likely to push raising

interest rates into 2016

Housing Market picks up momentum as

wage rate growth improves

Energy Prices for Consumers are good,

but not great for the economy

Auto industry bubble has peaked

China’s impact on multinational corps

Trade imbalance with a strong US Dollar

Late-Cycle Range

Spending As A Function of AgeBirths Lagged for Peak in Family Spending

• Peak spending rolled over for the first time in 2007 - and the stock market rolled with it.

• If the economy continues to follow the spending wave, we're in for another lean 12 years,

as the next peak spending pickup is not scheduled until 2022.

• This is due to the fact that baby boomers are now past peak spending - and we've got

over a decade until the next "baby boomlet" hits peak spending stride.

The Step Ladder Of Age-Dependent Spending in American Families

The sharp deceleration in energy demand growth helped solar to catch up with gas and coal in mix

36

1005234256

298642

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200

Other renewables

Solar

Natural Gas

Coal

Oil

Global primary energy demand growth in 2014thousand b/d oil equivalent

In 2014, solar was as important as natural gas in meeting global growth in primary

energy demand. Coal's growth share was<65 kbd larger than solar's.

Source: BPSR, Blacklight Research LLC

Last Summer2015

This Summer2016

Summer Scorecard

WEATHER

ECONOMY

DEMAND

SUPPLY

STORAGE

Price Pressure

Summer Season

Brief Regional SpikesRef: Various Sources37

Sell in May and

Go Away?

(BULLISH)