summary: products and markets - spe-gcs · contractors, suppliers) • new technology (e.g....
TRANSCRIPT
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Summary: Products and markets
• XTP offers a broad product portfolio
− Improved conventional fuels (diesel, gasoline, jet fuel, etc)
− New “designer” fuels and fuel additives (methanol, DME, hydrogen, ethanol, etc)
− New large volume chemicals (olefins)
• Fuel properties
− Greatly improved performance and emissions
− Preferred (early) applications: blends
• XTP is a must have tool in the tool box
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Outline
• Problem with gas: stranded or associated
• Gas monetization options
• The case for Gas To Products (GTP)
− What is GTP and GTL?
− Products and markets
− Technologies
− Global projects
− Economic viability
• The future of GTP
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GTL technology challenges
Gas Plant
Reformer FT Plant Upgrading
ASU
CH4
O2
CO+H2 (-CH2-)n
NaphthaDiesel
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GTL projects: the birth of an industry
SasolChevronNigeria35kbpd
BP“Colombia Condor”
~35kbpd
Sasol“Oryx”
35kbpd (70kd/d train 2)
Shell “Pearl”140kbpd (Nov. 2003)
ExxonMobil160kbpd (July, 2004)
PP: Feb. 2007
ConocoPhillipsSasolChevron
Marathon/SyntroleumPOSTPONED
Heritage Plants Shell Bintulu
PetroSA MossgasTinrhertAlgeria35kbpd
World GTLTrinidad
4kbpd
Many other proposed projects
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Methanol/DME projects: transition from chemicals to fuels
Japan DME Ltd3,000 TPD
Iran Methanol 1- 55,000 TPD
Memo: Not including <5,000 MTPD methanol plants
Trinidad – (2) 5,000 TPD Atlas
Methanol Holdings
Oman Methanol - 3,000 TPDQatar Methanol - 6,750 TPD
QatarDME Int’l Corp.2,500-4,500 TPD
Nigeria/Eurochem MTO7,500 TPD
Iran DME2500 TPD
Qatar/PetroWorld>12,000 TPD
China DME Plants2020: 20mmtpa
mostly coal based
Methanol
Methanol for Fuel, Power/OlefinsDME
Iran/Lurgi MTP2500TPD China Methanol
2020: 60mmtpamostly coal based
MethanexChile DME
Heritage plantMobil MTG
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Oryx Plant: Pioneer GTL plantInaugurated June 6th 2006
“As we stand here today to celebrate the inauguration of Oryx GTL, we arechanging the world’s energy paradigm with gas-to-liquids (GTL) technology.”- His Excellency Abdullah Bin Hamad Al-Attiyah, Second Deputy Premier,Minister of Energy and Industry, Qatar, and Qatar Petroleum chairman.
Plant Statistics
34,000 bpd capacity
- 24,000 bpd Diesel
- 9,000 bpd Naphtha
- 1,000 bpd LPG
Construction Start – Dec 2003
Project Completion – March2007
Believed to have cost $1.2Billion
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Atlas Plant (Trinidad): Pioneer methanol plant
• 5000tpd (160MMscfd); equivalent to 15,000bpd GTL
• Operated by Methanex, BP is 40% equity partner
• World’s largest single train reformer
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GTP Economics: summary
• 2000: GTL reached parity with LNG in economic returns
− Robust economics at $20 crude and Capex of $25k/bbl (2000)
− But EPC cost increases: >$50k/bbl (2006)
• 2006: Relative economic viability
− GTL (~$35/bbl), CTL (~$50 - 60/bbl), BTL (~$85/bbl)
− Higher crude prices favor GTP over LNG
• Methanol and DME can be delivered at $5-7/MMBTU and become viable as fuels above $30 crude
− Fuel methanol and DME are commercial realities in China
− Olefin projects underway (new low cost technology)
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Important factors for economics
1. Feedstock cost
2. Capital cost
• Location factor
• Boundary conditions
• Inflation
3. Product prices
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GTL Cost Trends
0
20
40
60
80
100
‘000
$/bb
l Ins
talle
d C
apac
ity
Mossgas1991
Bintulu1993
Oryx2006
Escravos2009
Pearl2010
Actual Estimated
• Relatively few commercial-scale projects to date
• Significant scope, scale and location-specific differences
• Estimates based on published data
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0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
LNG Liquefaction Cost Trends
1990 1995 2000 2008 2010 2010
Actual Estimated
$/to
nne
Inst
alle
d C
apac
ity
Drivers :• Economies of scale (e.g. liquefaction,
storage & shipping)• Increased competition (e.g. licensors,
contractors, suppliers)• New technology (e.g. cryogenic
pipelines; flexible hoses)
Drivers :• EPC demand and supply imbalance• Materials and labour costs• Vendors and manufacturing (e.g.
exchangers, turbines, compressors)• LNG shipping and yard availabilities• Increase in schedules
Rec
ently
Sanc
tione
d
New
Bro
wnf
ield
New
Gre
enfie
ld
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LNG and GTL comparison: boundary conditions
Shell
GTL Plant
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Impact of product prices (USA)
US Energy Costs ($/Million BTU)
0123456789
101112131415161718
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
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1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
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Bituminous Coal Lignite Coal Natural Gas Domestic CrudeImported Crude Gasoline Diesel >1%S Resid Fuel Oil
Diesel>Natural gas/LNG>Coal
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Key Issues :• Oil:gas price relationship;
gas capped by coal• LNG capex: plant only or
value chain capex?• Strategic value :
• Revenue diversification• Value added in-country • LNG and GTP
Economics of GTL vs. LNG
LNG EconomicallyAdvantaged
GTL EconomicallyAdvantaged
Oil
Pric
e ($
/bbl
)
20
40
60
80
100
106 8LNG Price ($/mmbtu)
4
Net Present Value
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Summary: Pros and cons of GTP
• Large new markets
• Host country appeal
• Premium “designer” products
• Robust economics
• Proven technologies
• Scaleability
• Capital intensive
• Scale-up risks
• Aversion to new products
• Poor efficiencies
PROS CONS
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Process carbon efficiencies
80 – 83
85 - 90
Methanol/DME today
Goal
75 – 80
~/>85
GTL today
Goal
85 - 90
Benchmark:
LNG and refineries
Carbon efficiency (%)
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The future in GTP
• On-going R&D and value engineering
− lower cost plants
− Higher efficiencies
• Floating applications
− Marinization of GTL FT
− Micro-channel technologies (Velocys, CompactGTL)
• New products from syngas
• Gas refinery
− Integration of different plants
− Further conversion of primary products into consumer products (plastics)
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Technology Benchmark: Syntroleum FPSO
310 M
65 M
16,300 bpd GTL150 mm-scfd Gas$1.2b EPC20,150 M2
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BP GTP Profile
• World class R&D group (~60 people)
• Relationship with Berkeley, Caltech, DICP (~60)
• Broad GTP product portfolio (CR, FT, alcohols,…)
• Atlas methanol plant (with Methanex)
• Portfolio of project options
• Decarbonized fuel projects
• Jan 2007: Transition to XTP
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Summary
• GTP and XTP are here to stay: new options for resource holders
• Oryx and Atlas: pioneer plants for new GTL and methanol/DME business
• Target feedstocks: stranded gas, flares, domestic coal
• Products: high performing, low emitting fuels
• No more stranded gas
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Thank you!