summary aquaculture stakeholders meeting kona, hawaii - august 24-26, 2011 = soy in aquaculture...
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SummaryAquaculture Stakeholders Meeting Kona, Hawaii - August 24-26, 2011
= Soy in Aquaculture Activity
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Global Trends
● The global aquaculture market is expected to grow by over 20 mmt in the next 10 years
● China will continue to dominate global aquaculture, controlling 60% or more of global production, with current SBM use of 7.5 mmt increasing at 300,000-400,000 mt annually
● China seafood demand is forecast to double in next decade – China an importer of seafood
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Global Trends● Developing Asian countries will continue to increase per capita consumption as the middle class grows - 67% of middle class in Asia by 2030
● After China, the majority of growth will be in Southeast Asia and India - the highest increases in per capita fish consumption have occurred in East and Southeast Asia
●
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China 2008
China 2020
SE Asia 2008
SE Asia 2020
India 2008
India 2020
Europe 2008
Europe 2020
CA/SA 2008
CA/SA 2008
CR/MEX 2008
CR/MEX 2020
0
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000
30,000,000
35,000,000
40,000,000
45,000,000
50,000,000
32.7
44.3
6.9
11.3
3.56.2
2.4 2.8 1.6 2.30.6 1
Aquaculture Growth Projections by Region
met
ric t
ons
18.7 mmt growth in China, SEA & India
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East and SEA Asia will continue to be the dominant market for U.S. soy products by virtue of the volume of aquaculture production and feed
demand, with ~4 mmt of additional soy demand in the next decade
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Global Trends – Feed Proteins● Global fishmeal production projected to decline further in 2010/11 to 4.25 mmt from the 4.53 mmt produced last year and compared to the level of 5 – 5.5 mmt in the years 2005 – 2008
● Forecast for soy products by the global aquaculture sector:● SBM demand to increase 4.1 mmt in next 10 years● SPC demand to increase 1.5 mmt in next 10 years
● SPC to become critical ingredient in more nutrient dense feeds, such as marine fish feeds
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Soy Protein Concentrate
● Majority of feed-grade SPC is currently supplied by China and Brazil
● Can/will the U.S. industry provide SPC? USSEC is considering a more detailed study to identify opportunities for SPC – with study to be used as basis for discussing a strategic plan with U.S. industry
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U.S Seafood Sourcing
As consumption of seafood grows in Asia, where will the U.S. get the
products that it now sources primarily in Asia?
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Tilapia and shrimp are two of the leading cultured seafood import-
export products globally – both are major U.S. import commodities
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Demand for Tilapia & Shrimp
● 93% of U.S. tilapia imports and 72% of U.S. shrimp imports are from Asia
● Growing demand in Asia will likely absorb all of Asia’s production – where will the U.S. get these products in the future?
● Will not be produced in the U.S.
● Economics and demand shifts should give Latin America producers a competitive advantage in the U.S. market
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2010 Prices of Tilapia FeedPrice – USD/mt
China (32% CP) 765
Philippines (32% CP) 800
Mexico (30% CP) 611-656
Ecuador (32% CP) 600-652
Colombia (32% CP) 680
Costa Rica (32% CP) 600-650
Mexico, Central and South America have a significant economic advantage over Asia in
$100/mt lower feed cost
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LATAM Aquaculture
● From a cost of production viewpoint, Latin America should already be taking the U.S. market from Asia
● Latin America has >98% of the fresh tilapia market in the U.S. – why not the frozen fillet market? shrimp market? Other?
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Investment and Infrastructure● Investment and infrastructure development
are the primary constraints to aquaculture growth in Latin America
● Hatcheries ● Production facilities● Processing facilities● Market chain development● Ancillary staff and facilities – disease labs
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Suggested Strategic Focus for FY13
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China - FY13
● Continue core program of development and demonstration of soy feeds; feed-based, water conservation and food safety technologies; feed mill technical support; farmer, feed mill and industry training
● Introduce Intensive Pond Aquaculture (IPA) technology to maintain economic sustainability of China aquaculture sector in response to increasing land values, water shortages and production input costs
● Add third full-time AQ staff in response to program growth and need to train new, young staff for the future
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Southeast Asia - FY13
● Continue core program of development and demonstration of soy feeds and feed-based production technologies; feed mill technical support; farmer, feed mill and industry training; industry study tours
● Add Technical Manager in southern Vietnam - as the third largest producer of aquaculture products in the world, and with 20-30% growth projected for aquaculture, a more focused long-term approach is needed in the major production region in the south
● Expand Marine Sustainability Efforts to include activities targeting optimizing marine water resource use and harmonizing certification standards
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Americas - FY13
● Continue core program of development and demonstration of soy feeds and feed-based production technologies; feed mill technical support; farmer, feed mill and industry training
● Promote aquaculture investment in Latin America as a means to boost U.S. soy sales, both for export opportunity and to maintain the U.S. crushing industry, and to provide healthy seafood products for the U.S. and the region
● Expand research support for marine species of high interest to the Latin America industry, with emphasis on identifying nutritional requirements and developing soy-based feeds
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India - FY13
● Continue core program of development and demonstration of soy feeds and feed-based production technologies; feed mill technical support; farmer, feed mill and industry training; industry study tours
● Promote species diversification as a means to increase consumer options and boost aquaculture production and feed use
● Expand market chain development support as a means to improve market quality of aquaculture products and to develop new market outlets to boost demand for aquaculture products
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Middle East - FY13
● Focus program in Turkey and Egypt only
● Continue core program of development and demonstration of soy feeds to aquaculture production and feed manufacturing sectors in Turkey and Egypt, and industry study tours for Egypt
● Promote SPC as a replacement for fishmeal to marine fish producers throughout the region
● Promote improved tilapia genetic stock to the Egypt tilapia industry as a means to increase fish growth rate, reduce FCR, decrease production time to market and increase profitability
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Europe - FY13
● Continue research emphasis in support of the global soy in aquaculture program effort to increase soy use in aquafeeds and reduce dependency on fish meal and oil in aquafeeds
● Continue use of feeding demonstrations to bring new soy- based feeds to the Mediterranean region aquaculture production and feed industries
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AQ Research – FY13
● Maintain Linked International Marketing and New Uses research effort to address critical aquaculture research needs identified by IM field staff and contractors
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IP Soy Product Promotion
● Focus on Schillinger high protein, ultra-low oligosaccharide SBM as a substitute for fishmeal
● 2012 rollout if 2011 research results with Schillinger product are positive
● Prepare 2012 rollout project proposal at end of calendar year 2011 and submit for QSSB funding