sulfates, urban warming and permafrost
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Professor Hector R RodriguezSchool of BusinessMount Ida College
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Course Map – Topics Covered in Course• Society
– The Corporation and Its Stakeholders– People for the Ethical Treatment of Animals– Corporate Citizenship– The Social Responsibility of Business– The Shareholder Primacy Norm– CSR, Citizenship and Sustainability
Reporting– Responsible Investing– The Community and the Corporation– Taxation and Corporate Citizenship– Corporate Philanthropy Programs– Employees and the Corporation– Managing a Diverse Workforce
• Environment– A Balanced Look at Climate Change– Non-anthropogenic Causes of Climate
Change– Sulfates, Urban Warming and Permafrost– Conventional Energy– The Kyoto Protocol– Green Building– Green Information Technology– Transportation, Electric Vehicles and the
Environment– Geo-Engineering– Carbon Capture and Storage– Renewable Energy– Solid, Toxic and Hazardous Waste– Forests, Paper and Carbon Sinks– Life Cycle Analysis– Water Use and Management– Water Pollution
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• The reason we are concerned about global warming is due to the so-called greenhouse effect; several gases reflect or trap heat, most importantly CO2
• They trap the heat emitted by the earth, like a blanket around the globe; the basic effect is good, if the atmosphere did not contain greenhouse gases, the average temperature on Earth would be approximately 59o colder, or a constant -18o C.– This is by the way the constant temperature above the GHG layer
in our atmosphere.
Temperature Changes
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The Greenhouse Effect
GHG effect increases with increasing concentrations of CO2
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• The greenhouse gas effect increases with increasing concentration of GHG’s– Global GHG emissions due to human activities have grown since
pre-industrial times, with an increase of 70% between 1970 and 2004
Source: The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, “Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report,” 2007
Emissions of Long-lived Greenhouse Gases
6Source: The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, “Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report,” 2007
Attribution of Temperature Change
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• Why up and down?– The majority of the Earth’s
vegetation is North of the Equator
– When the Northern Hemisphere is tilted toward the Sun during the spring and summer, the leaves come out, the amount of CO2 decreases worldwide.
– The leaves fall during fall and winter, CO2 is released, and the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere goes up again.
Source: National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration
Recent Changes in CO2 Concentration
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• Global atmospheric concentrations of CO2, CH4 and N2O are determined from ice cores spanning many thousands of years.
• Ice cores - collected from glaciers reveal light and dark bands caused by annual snow accumulation on glacier
Side Note - Studying Climate
– Gas bubbles can be analyzed for atmospheric composition.
– Ash and sulfur deposits correlate with volcanic eruptions.
– Vostok ice core in Antarctica gives us a record back 420,000 years (4 past glacial cycles).
Studying Climate
9Source: Climate of Extremes, Patrick Michaels, 2009 p. 36-37
Attribution of Temperature Change - Sulfates
• There are other factors influencing temperature– It is hypothesized that sulfate aerosols, produced by burning of
fossil fuels, created the cooling effects.– The effects were mitigated when scrubbers were put in place in
an effort to eliminate acid rain.– There seem to be two “knobs” at play; CO2 and SO4
How about this drop?
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Attribution of Temperature Change – Urban Warming
• Urban Warming (Heat Island)– The Urban Heat Island Effect
refers to the fact that cities can be up to 5-7º C hotter than the surrounding rural areas. This is due to:
• Lack of plants• Concrete can absorb a lot of heat• Tall buildings increase overall
surface area for heat absorption• Urban Canyon effect
– Geometry of urban settlements provide multiple surfaces for refection and absorption
– Blocks cooling via convection
Atlanta
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Attribution of Temperature Change - Permafrost
• Permafrost - is soil at or below the freezing point of water for two or more years. – Most permafrost is located in high latitudes (i.e. land in close
proximity to the North and South poles– The extent of permafrost can vary as the climate changes. Today,
a considerable area of the Arctic is covered by permafrost. – General circulation models predict that, for a doubling of
atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide due to anthropogenic sources, mean annual air temperatures may rise up to several degrees over much of the Arctic.
– In those areas where ground temperatures are within 1-2 degrees of melting, permafrost will likely ultimately disappear as a result of ground thermal changes associated with global climate warming.
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• Methane, a gas, is about 20 times more powerful as a greenhouse gas than CO2
• The permafrost has acted like a "lid" to prevent large amounts of methane (greater than the total amount of carbon locked up in global coal reserves) from escaping
Change in permafrost temperatures at various depths in Fairbanks, Alaska
Attribution of Temperature Change - Permafrost
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Some believe that its release could accelerate global warming in a giant positive feedback where more atmospheric methane causes higher temperatures, leading to further permafrost melting and the release of yet more methane.
Attribution of Temperature Change - Permafrost
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There is high agreement and much evidence that with current climate change mitigation policies and
related practices, global GHG emissions will
continue to grow over the next few decades.
The scenarios are grouped into four scenario families (A1, A2, B1 and B2) that explore alternative development pathways, covering a wide range of demographic, economic
and technological driving forces and resulting GHG emissions.
Conclusion
Source: The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, “Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report,” 2007
What does it mean?