Sugarcane Agroecological Zoning for Ethanol and Sugar production in Brazil

Brasília, november 2009

Celso Vainer Manzatto Embrapa Environment

www.cnpma.embrapa.br

Ministry of Agriculture/EMBRAPA

Ministry of Environment Ministry Agrarian Development/

Ministry of Energy

Environment Changes and Agroenergy

 Reduction of emissions and Carbon sequestrations;  Regulatory frameworks on the environmental benefits associated with renewable energy;  Sustainability of production and non-tariff barriers;  Expansion of sugarcane production and risk to food production or to food safety;  Expansion of the agricultural frontier. IPCC

GUIDELINES to guide the expansion of production

1. Agricultural Policy   Indication of areas with agricultural suitability (soil and climate) for the

sugar cane cultivation, without full irrigation;

  Indication of areas with land surface slope less than 12%, allowing environmentally sound production (mechanical harvest);

2. Environmental Sustainability   Exclusion of areas with native vegetation (indication of areas currently

under agricultural use);

  Exclusion of areas for tillage in the Amazon, Pantanal (and the Upper Paraguay River Basin);

3. Food Security   Decrease in direct competition with areas of food production;

Additional Constrains Validation by State

Areas without Environmental

restrictions Areas with slope

<12%

Soil Maps Climate Data

Criteria for land evaluation

Criteria for Climate evaluation

Land suitability Climate Potential

Sugar cane climate/soil potential

Evaluation of Current

Agricultural Use

Areas with low climate risk - Without full irrigation:

Culture Requirements

Agricultural suitability for crops

Soil Mapping

Climate Risk

Knowledge

soy Castor beans

palm sugar cane

•  EMDS - Ecosystem Management Decision Support

•  Netweaver •  ArcGis

LANDS UNDER AGRICULTURAL USAGE •  Country Total Areas => 851 Million ha.

•  Agricultural suitability lands => 789 Million ha - 65% of total

•  Land Use in 2002 => 232 Million ha - 27% of total

SOURCE: Adapted from PROBIO, 2006. (*) Area considered in the study. (**) Relative to the area of the country

Areas considered in the zoning: 18,5%

BIOME

Area Mapped PROBIO

Areas with Forest/Water Cover

Biome/ Park / Indian Res/ Alt Parag Basin

Zoning Areas Considered

(M ha) (M ha) % (M( ha) % (M ha) % AMAZONIA 423,50 382,86 90,51 423,05 100,00 - -

CAATINGA 82,58 52,61 63,72 5,05 5,98 29,96 36,28 CERRADO 204,72 124,92 61,02 57,46 28,07 43,65 21,31

MATA ATLÂNTICA 105,90 30,77 29,05 7,07 6,32 75,14 70,95 PAMPA 17,82 9,15 51,30 0,06 3,51 8,68 48,67 PANTANAL 15,12 13,38 88,46 15,12 100,00 - -

TOTAL 849,18 * 613,68 72,27 508,36 59,86 157,40 18,54**

BRAZIL: ZAE - SUGARCANE

Lands with agricultural suitability for sugarcane production under diverse

agricultural usage

Areas considered suitable: 7,6 %

Potential areas in Brazil for suitability and type of use

Brazil Suitability Classes Areas suitable for type of land use (ha)

Ap Ag Ac Ap + Ag Ap + Ag + Ac

High (H) 11.302.342,95 600.766,55 7.360.310,26 11.903.109,50 19.263.419,76

Medium (M) 22.863.866,09 2.015.247,91 16.344.644,29 24.879.114,00 41.223.758,29

Low (L) 3.041.122,07 483.326,14 731.076,97 3.524.448,21 4.255.525,18

H+M 34.166.209,05 2.616.014,46 23.704.954,55 36.782.223,51 60.487.178,05

Total 37.207.331,12 3.099.340,60 24.436.031,52 40.306.671,72 64.742.703,23

Summary: ZAE - SUGARCANE Territory or Area Estimate Millions

(ha) Percentage in Relation to the National Territory

Brazilian territory (IBGE) 851,5 100,00%

Lands with agricultural suitability 553,5 65,00%

Lands in use 2002 (Probio Estimate) 235,5 27,70%

Lands with environmental restrictions (including the Amazon biome, Pantanal and Paraguay River Basin)

694,1 81,50%

Lands considered to the zoning without contrains 157,4 18,50%

Lands with agricultural suitability for sugarcane tillage under diverse agricultural usage

64,7 7,6%

Lands suitable for tillage / expansion used for pasture (high and medium suitability)

34,2 4,02%

Land with sugarcane production - 20081 7,1 0,90%

Expansion foreseen until 2017 for the sugarcane production²

7,5 0,91%

1 – Source Conab, 2009. 2 – Adapted from the estimates of Energetic Research Enterprise – EPE, 2008

Union implements two initiatives:

1) AEZ binds credit and establishes guidelines for states and municipalities

•  Decree establishing the AEZ;

•  Ordinance of the MAPA and MMA;

•  Vote of the CMN;

2) AEZ – Policy that guides the sugarcane production expansion

•  Bill with restrictions to the licensing of new ethanol/sugar plants and new tasks to the MAPA.

Public Policy Proposal

1) Decree establishing the AEZ and decree of MAPA and MMA

•  Binds the public and private credit

•  Sugarcane production: land suitability, limits the credit for areas with environmental constrains;

•  Investment: expansion of ethanol plants, new ethanol plants, co-generation.

2) Guidance for licensing in UF.

3) Bill

•  Environmental constrains

•  Expansion of planting and installation of ethanol/sugar plants in the Amazon and Pantanal Biome and Upper Paraguay River Basin

•  Suppression throughout the national territory of native vegetation to expand the planting of sugar cane for ethanol/sugar productions

•  Constrains on the replacement of food crops

•  MAPA authorizes the establishment or expansion of ethanol plants.

•  Install or expand when there is injury or threat to food production or food security will not be allowed.

Public Policy Proposal

  Restrictive measures provided by the Bill, reach only the expansion of sugar cane for the production of sugar and alcohol

  Areas currently planted with sugar cane are not affected

  Expansion of the area of sugar cane for the production of “cachaça”, brown sugar, animal feed, and other products than sugar and alcohol are not included in the constrains

  Suppression in all the national territory of native vegetation to expand the planting of sugar cane, even with the planting of crops after deforestation.

BILL – SCOPE OF APPLICATION

•  Exclusion of areas with native vegetation

With the validity of the act, it is prohibited the native vegetation suppression for the sugarcane culture expansion in all Brazilian territory. Areas with the predomination of native original vegetation will be protected, being part of restricted areas, where sugarcane cannot be cultivated.

•  Exclusion of areas for the cultivation at the biomes Amazônia, Pantanal and at the High Paraguay Basin

The ZAE Cana prohibits the sugarcane production expansion at the biomes Amazônia, Pantanal and at the High Paraguay Basin. To protect the environment, to conserve the biodiversity and to use all the natural resources in a rational manner, new ethanol production units will not be able to be installed in these areas.

•  Indication of areas with agricultural potential without full irrigation

The ZAE Cana has considered the climate, soil conditions and varieties of sugarcane to select areas where the sugarcane production uses the least quantity of water possible.

AEZ – Sugarcane Proposal

•  Indication of areas with slope inferior to 12%

Areas with surface slope up to 12% allow the use of machines at the tilling. This way it is guaranteed an adequate environmental production expansion, avoiding new clearances of ground by fire and the emission of CO2. With the mechanical harvesting the expansion will happen without sugarcane manual cut.

•  Respect to the safe nourishing

The Bill foresees that the Ministry of Agriculture guides the sugarcane production expansion. This will avoid any risk to food production or for the safe nourishing. ( •  Prioritize degraded or pasture areas

The ZAE Cana is an important instrument to guide public policies and credit to prioritize the sugarcane expansion to areas already used for pasture. More than 34 million hectares of land, which today are underused or occupied by cattle breeding and degraded pasture, are identified at the ZAE as fit for sugarcane production. The increase in the cattle breeding productivity in Brazil (relation of bovine per hectare), today considered low, can provide new spaces for sugarcane production.

AEZ – Sugarcane Proposal

YEAR AREA MECANIZATION 2012 20% of harvest area 2014 40% of harvest area 2017 100% of harvest area

Elimination of Burning Proposal

Schedule similar to the one established by law in SP

These measures will allow the reduction of greenhouse gases effects in a measurement that corresponds to the emission of 6 million tons of CO2

equivalent in relation to the year of 2008.

Prioritization of Land for Expansion: Spontaneous Expansion

  414 ethanol/sugar plants in operation, 47 power plants being implanted and 23 under study;

 Ethanol Plants in production and deployment meet demand by 2010;

  Expansion Planning with reflections from 2010;

Ethanol Plants: Spontaneous Expansion

Ethanol Plants:

  Planning

  Deployment

  Operating

Prioritization of Land for Expansion: Infrastructure

FONTE: EPE, 2008

 South Central Region: currently single integrated multimodal system of highways, railroads, pipelines and terminals for the sale of ethanol.

Prioritization of Land for Expansion: Infrastructure

FONTE: EPE, 2008

  Infrastructure outlets for export / domestic supply more concentrated in the Center-South States;  Spontaneous expansion of ethanol plants attached to the main location of existing infrastructure / projected (SP, MS, PR, GO, MG, MT);  Possibility to export the Project Northeast: future expansion (MA, PI, TO);  For other regions of the country, the possibility of expansion in order to regional suplement.

Prioritization of Land for Expansion: Infrastructure  Possibility to export the Project Northeast: future expansion (MA, PI, TO);  Integrating North-South Railway and Carajás to the Port of Itaqui;  Asia Market Access through the Panama Canal;  For other regions of the country, the possibility of expansion in order to regional supplement.

Prioritization of Land for Expansion: Projections of Demand for Ethanol SOURCE: EPE, 2008

Prioritization of Land for Expansion: Projections of Demand for Ethanol and Sugar

  Projected demand of 63.91 billion liters of ethanol by 2017;  7.5 million hectares of additional land are necessary to achieve the future demands of ethanol and sugar until 2017;

Source : Adapted from EPE, 2008. Estimates of demand: (1) EPE, (2) MAPA.

YEAR Production of

Alcohol (B

Liters) (1)

Sugar Production (M ton)

(2)

Cane Production (M ton)

Cultivated area (M

ha)

Planted area

alcohol (M ha)

Planted area

sugar (M ha)

2008 25,6 31,8 553 7,9 4,2 3,8

2009 29,2 33,2 609 8,7 4,7 3,9

2010 33,5 34,6 677 9,6 5,5 4,1

2011 37,6 36,0 734 10,3 6,1 4,2

2012 42,3 37,4 800 11,2 6,8 4,4

2013 47,3 38,8 871 12,1 7,6 4,5

2014 51,5 40,1 929 12,8 8,2 4,6

2015 55,7 41,5 985 13,5 8,8 4,8

2016 59,8 42,9 1.029 14,1 9,2 4,8

2017 63,9 44,3 1.075 14,6 9,7 4,9

Embrapa Environment cmanzatto@cnpma.embrapa.br

www.cnpma.embrapa.br

Thank you!