successful adaptation to coastal climate change

14
Successful Adaptation to Coastal Climate Change Identifying Effective Process and Outcome Characteristics and Practice-Relevant Metrics

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2012-2014 West Coast Sea Grant-funded research project

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Page 1: Successful Adaptation to Coastal Climate Change

Successful Adaptation to Coastal Climate ChangeIdentifying Effective Process and Outcome Characteristics and Practice-Relevant Metrics

Page 2: Successful Adaptation to Coastal Climate Change

The all-star, all-female, three-state

Project Leadership Team

Dr. Pamela Matson (PI) Stanford University

Dr. Susanne Moser (lead co-PI)Susanne Moser Research & Consulting/Stanford

Dr. Amy Snover (co-PI)University of Washington

Dr. Hannah Gosnell (co-PI)Oregon State University

Page 3: Successful Adaptation to Coastal Climate Change

Central Question

What does successful adaptation look like?

…in different physical, ecological, socio-economic, institutional and cultural contexts

that characterize coastal communities

• Scientific perspective: What process and outcome elements could be considered?

• Ethical/normative perspective: Which process and outcome elements should be considered?

• Practical perspective: How can communities measure progress towards successful adaptation, both in the near and long-term?

Page 4: Successful Adaptation to Coastal Climate Change

An Increasingly Pressing QuestionGlobal sea level rise expected to

accelerate with climate warming

High

Interm

ediate 1

Intermediate 2

Low

~7-8 in 1900-2000~16 in by 2050~55 in by 2010

Page 5: Successful Adaptation to Coastal Climate Change

RationaleWhy do coastal managers want to

know?To decide on a particular course of action

To garner the necessary political and social support to commit scarce resources to adaptation

To define defensible and measurable goals

To assess trade-offs among different options

To agree with coastal stakeholders on a preferable strategy

To illustrate reasonable progress and be accountable for the funds committed to policies

Page 6: Successful Adaptation to Coastal Climate Change

Alignment with Sea Grant Goals

National Sea Grant Program Vision: “people live along our coasts in harmony with the natural resources that attracted and sustain them”

Sea Grant Core Values:- strong partnerships- integration of scientific expertise and research - active engagement of stakeholders- extension and education

Touches all focal areas in the 2009-13 Strategic Plan

Page 7: Successful Adaptation to Coastal Climate Change

Project ApproachRooted in existing literatureStepwise engagement of

scientists, and coastal practitioners

Comparative approach◦WA, OR, CA practitioner workshops◦Perspectives from science and

practice◦Extensive stakeholder engagement

during and after project

Page 8: Successful Adaptation to Coastal Climate Change

Approach: Step-by-step1. Literature review

- Scientific literature- Plans, policy documents

Questions: What has been said to-date about adaptation success? What intentions about desirable processes or endpoints can be discerned? What dimensions of success are commonly delineated? What timeframes are (implicitly or explicitly) considered relevant for the

determination of success? What criteria and metrics have been proposed to measure progress toward

adaptation success? Over what temporal and geographic scales is success defined? What social, economic, and ecological endpoints and process aspects are

considered? Are trade-offs recognized, and if so, how are they being discussed or

handled? Is the prospect of unavoidable loss raised, and how is it treated? What, if anything, is unique concerning the coastal adaptation context?

Page 9: Successful Adaptation to Coastal Climate Change

Approach: Step-by-step (cont.)

2. Workshops◦ - Science experts

◦ - Practitioners in each state (incl. preparatory interviews)

◦ - Capstone: Science and practitioners

Day-long interaction and discussion:

◦ Tabletop (pair and small group) activities, and group discussion to elicit participants’ mental models or top-of-mind elements of successful adaptation

◦ Focus on persistent and vexing CZM challenges

◦ Discuss success through various theoretical lenses

◦ Explore metrics of success

◦ Consider different time horizons

◦ Examine trade offs

◦ Explore possibility of developing guidelines, delineating principles, and providing a set of indicators (scorecards)

Page 10: Successful Adaptation to Coastal Climate Change

Expected OutcomesSpecific results of the project include:Clear categorization of “desirable” and

undesirable” outcomes of coastal climate adaptation actions;

Sophisticated articulation of desirable process characteristics (generically, or for particular stakeholders), and why;

Guiding principles on how to assess adaptation options as to their traits, desirability, and potential trade-offs;

Practical success metrics (e.g., existing or new “performance measures”)

Page 11: Successful Adaptation to Coastal Climate Change

Stakeholder Engagement Pre-workshop interviews with

practitioners ◦ identify existing mental models ◦ support development of useful workshops 

Practitioner Engagement in Workshops Outreach to Coastal and Other

Stakeholders after the Workshop Series◦ Network of Sea Grant programs and

extension◦ Network of coastal and climate-focused

organizations in each West Coast state◦ Network of adaptation-focused organizations

nationwide◦ Local, state, federal and tribal policymakers

through existing connections◦ National Climate Assessment

Page 12: Successful Adaptation to Coastal Climate Change

Outputs3 Practitioner workshops Peer-reviewed publicationsLay audience publications (coastal

magazines, etc.) Presentation templates for

professional and lay audiencesp/vodcasts for public and

stakeholdersConference presentationsBriefings with policymakers

Page 13: Successful Adaptation to Coastal Climate Change

YOUR QUESTIONS?

Acknowledgments:

• Steve Adams, Adina

Abeles, Stacy Vynne,

and Lara Whitley-

Binder in developing

and executing this

project.

• The West Coast Sea

Grant programs for

core funding, and all

partner institutions for

matching funds.

Page 14: Successful Adaptation to Coastal Climate Change

Contacts

We welcome questions, ideas, and comments:

Susi MoserEmail: [email protected]

Amy SnoverEmail: [email protected]

Hannah GosnellEmail: [email protected]