Success and Failure in AdaptationSuccess and Failure in Adaptation

Dr Anne-Marie GrisogonoDr Anne-Marie Grisogono

Research Leader Land SystemsResearch Leader Land Systems

Land Operations Division, DSTOLand Operations Division, DSTO

Scope and ObjectivesScope and Objectives

Interested in systems that adapt Including natural (living) and ‘engineered’ systems – and also

hybrid sociotechnical systems

both individual systems and populations of systems

Open systems that exist in and interact with a context (physical environment + other systems) through porous boundaries

Iterative Iterative process:process: fitnessfitness variationvariation interactioninteraction feedbackfeedback fitness- fitness- …linked linked …selectionselection

Understand and exploit the power of adaptation to generate useful new characteristics (design),

to solve complex problems,

to develop comparative advantage over competing systems

to develop effective cooperative strategies between systems

To do this - need to understand how adaptation works, and

how and why it succeeds or fails.distinguish success/failure of mechanism of adaptation from needed successes and failures within adaptation

How Does a Living System Make a Living?How Does a Living System Make a Living?

import resources to function and reproduce, and…

fight decay through homeostasis, self- repair and exporting waste

import resources to function and reproduce, and…

fight decay through homeostasis, self- repair and exporting waste

??Complexity and adaptation are Complexity and adaptation are inextricably linkedinextricably linked

Emergence of complex structure Emergence of complex structure through adaptation is elicited by through adaptation is elicited by problems posed by contextproblems posed by context

Success in making a living Success in making a living depends on properties of context depends on properties of context AND systemAND system (sense, process, act, adapt)(sense, process, act, adapt)

Complexity and adaptation are Complexity and adaptation are inextricably linkedinextricably linked

Emergence of complex structure Emergence of complex structure through adaptation is elicited by through adaptation is elicited by problems posed by contextproblems posed by context

Success in making a living Success in making a living depends on properties of context depends on properties of context AND systemAND system (sense, process, act, adapt)(sense, process, act, adapt)

System’s ability to sense, process & act

on its own behalf

depends on what problems system has to solve to find resources and protect itself from danger

i.e. on system AND context

depends on what problems system has to solve to find resources and protect itself from danger

i.e. on system AND context

How hard is this?

How hard is this?

System’s ability to

adapt

complexitycomplexityadaptationadaptation

Requires, Requires, stimulates stimulates

and enables and enables adaptationadaptation Complexity

of contextComplexity of context

(from the system’s POV)

Makes life Makes life harder for harder for othersothers

Improves Improves ability to ability to deal with deal with

challengeschallenges

IncreasesIncreases

fitnessfitness

Factors for Success or Failure of AdaptationFactors for Success or Failure of Adaptation

For populations of systems:

Factors of Success

speed of ‘moving’ in fitness landscape to get off regions of declining fitness and find new suitable regions as they emerge

ability to stabilise, protect useful properties

ability to modify environment to maintain or increase habitability locally to current population, and foster emergence of habitable regions elsewhere

Factors of Failure

loss of agility in design space, eg by overspecialisation, reduced diversity

loss of useful information – leading to ‘mutational meltdown’

propensity to act on the environment in such a way as to decrease habitability either locally, or elsewhere

For populations of systems:

Factors of Success

speed of ‘moving’ in fitness landscape to get off regions of declining fitness and find new suitable regions as they emerge

ability to stabilise, protect useful properties

ability to modify environment to maintain or increase habitability locally to current population, and foster emergence of habitable regions elsewhere

Factors of Failure

loss of agility in design space, eg by overspecialisation, reduced diversity

loss of useful information – leading to ‘mutational meltdown’

propensity to act on the environment in such a way as to decrease habitability either locally, or elsewhere

For individual systems:

Factors of Success

speed of ‘moving’ in own fitness landscape, replacing capabilities of lower or declining fitness with new ones better suited to creating success in context,

ability to stabilise, protect useful properties

ability to modify environment to maintain or increase habitability locally, or foster emergence of habitable regions elsewhere

Factors of Failure

loss of agility eg by overspecialisation, getting set in its ways

loss of useful information – forgetting what it has learnt

acting in ways that decrease habitability locally, or elsewhere, eg by prioritising short-term gains over longer-term consequences

For individual systems:

Factors of Success

speed of ‘moving’ in own fitness landscape, replacing capabilities of lower or declining fitness with new ones better suited to creating success in context,

ability to stabilise, protect useful properties

ability to modify environment to maintain or increase habitability locally, or foster emergence of habitable regions elsewhere

Factors of Failure

loss of agility eg by overspecialisation, getting set in its ways

loss of useful information – forgetting what it has learnt

acting in ways that decrease habitability locally, or elsewhere, eg by prioritising short-term gains over longer-term consequences

How to Study and Quantify these How to Study and Quantify these Factors and what Influences them?Factors and what Influences them?

what adaptation is

what steers it

implementation strategies

what it deals with

what aspect of the system is adapting

where it is applied

what it takes to make them work

what it takes to improve them

Conceptual Framework for AdaptationConceptual Framework for Adaptation

Generic model of adaptation

Measures of success and failure

Types of adaptive mechanisms

Four Classes of adaptation

Five Levels of adaptation

Scale of adaptive mechanisms

Health of adaptive mechanisms

Factors that influence effectiveness

Variation, Interaction, Feedback, SelectionMoS, MoF, proxies,

indicators, correlationsPopulation size, cycle time,

randomness, parallelismstressor parameters, effects

and time scalesAdaptability of system and

adaptation parametersSystem parameters, sense,

process and act scalesContinuity, throughput,

alignment, driveOther parameters that

characterise adaptation mechanism

A lot of A lot of parameters!!parameters!!

See references in text

What gets tried

How it’s evaluated

How it’s retained or discarded

Time constant of context

(Some of) What Influences Success or Failure of Adaptation(Some of) What Influences Success or Failure of Adaptation

Ability to move in fitness space

Ability to find and exploit opportunitiesand recognise & deal with threats

Ability to protect the good regions of design space

already populated

Ability to specialise but retain agility

How well system produces new

optionsHow well system evaluates new

options

size of population

depth, scope, concurrency of variations – increases space enormously but

access higher order effects

rate of variation

what aspects are variable

to produce higher order structure, existence of variable system parameters that create

the possibility for enduring relationships between systems

extent of variation – size of excursions

produced?

random or

directed

Genotype – phenotype map

How strict or tolerant selection is

How accurate evaluation is

How well selection

works

Time constant of adaptive cycle

Topology of fitness space

Rate of change of context

Modularity of map

Correlation with real fitness

types of change of

context

How fastevaluation

is

Ability to modify the environment to

increase habitability

How well system stabilises important

parts of genome

Accessible region of

phenospace

The Bottom LinesThe Bottom Lines

Huge no of parameters characterise systems

Success of system depends on getting them right

‘right’ is complex and context dependent

Problem ‘solved’ by adaptive processes – evolution and learning

Huge no of parameters characterise systems

Success of system depends on getting them right

‘right’ is complex and context dependent

Problem ‘solved’ by adaptive processes – evolution and learning

But adaptation is not a free lunch

Huge no of parameters characterise adaptation

Success of adaptation depends on getting them right

‘right’ is complex and context dependent

also needs to be ‘solved’ by adaptive processes

We CAN do it!

But adaptation is not a free lunch

Huge no of parameters characterise adaptation

Success of adaptation depends on getting them right

‘right’ is complex and context dependent

also needs to be ‘solved’ by adaptive processes

We CAN do it!

Conceptual Framework for Adaptation explores how

Conceptual Framework for Adaptation explores how