Studying the Impacts ofRegeneration and the

2014 Commonwealth Gameson the Inner East End of

GlasgowAde Kearns and Julie Clark

A Guide to GoWell East

• The Aims of the study.• The Study Area.• The Challenges Involved.• The Methods Employed.• A Prospective Assessment &

Contribution Analysis.

Legacy & the Host

Community‘Games for Glasgow, for Scotland and the Commonwealth’

‘Significant regeneration of the East End of Glasgow, making

effective use of otherwise derelict land

and creating employment

opportunities for local people’

Aims of the Study• What are the effects of regeneration and

developments and programmes associated with CG 2014 in the East End of Glasgow upon the quality of life and the health and wellbeing of nearby communities?

• In which outcome domains are the impacts greatest, and for whom?

• How are those impacts brought about? Which programmes & pathways are most effective?

• What are the barriers to impacts?• Are there negative effects as well as

positive ones?

The Study Area

• The East End Local Development Strategy Area– Apart from the two most northern parts

(Haghill; South Carntyne).• Enacted by GCC in 2008.• Study area: population of 19,000

people in 11,000 dwellings (2012).• Contained 103 hectares of vacant

and derelict land in 2006 (16%).

http://www.glasgow2014.com/image/athletes-village-north-residential-zone-2

The Study Datazones & SIMD 2012

(Source: Scottish Government)

Bridgeton Parkhead(part)

Calton

Dalmarnock

Camlachie

Gallowgate

Challenges

• Conducting the research.• Coping with complexity, uncertainty

and change.• Considering the issues of attribution.• Providing sufficient evidence.• Staying neutral and objective.

Conducting the Research• Research saturation: response rates;

encountering other research in the area.

• Breadth of the objectives and hence the remit.

• Having adequate resources.• Having enough time – longer than

some, but not long enough?• Ensuring comparability, yet making the

study culturally appropriate.• Dealing with the political and media

interest.

Complexity and Change• Keeping up with the rate of change in the

area…we can’t even find our way around!• Programmes change: title; size and shape;

focus; objectives; new ones; & there are a lot of them!

• Developments happen, don’t, get delayed etc.• Gathering information on what is happening is

an on-going task; and organisations are very busy; information dates quickly.

• Getting to know, and maintaining relationships with the actors involved is crucial but time consuming.

Difficulties of Attribution

• How would we work out the counterfactual?

• Could we separate CWG effects from regeneration?

• How feasible is a control area?• What are the time limits for intervention,

both start and finish?• Stakeholder logic models tend to be either

very general (and hence also very broad) or are still emerging.

• And then there is this problem…

If it moves...

badge it as CWG 2014!

Sufficient Evidence?• ‘On the balance of probability’ or ‘Beyond

reasonable doubt’? Depends who is asking!

• Three difficult issues to tackle:– Measuring the opportunity costs.– Assessing the sustainability of outcomes.– Taking into account the attributability of

programmes to the CWG: new & attributable; enhanced; accelerated; safeguarded; new, but would have happened anyway.

• The ‘known unknown’ – views of hard-to-reach groups in the area.

Staying Neutral and Objective

• Not rushing to judgement.• Not being overly-supportive nor

overly-negative.• We are not asking the question:

‘Should the CWG happen?’ but rather ‘What do the CWG do for people and communities when they do happen?’

Semi-structured interviews with residents

& local organisations

Semi-structured interviews with residents

& local organisations

Semi-structure interviews and workshops with regeneration & CWG policy stakeholders

Semi-structure interviews and workshops with regeneration & CWG policy stakeholders

Monitoring of secondary data for the East End on the physical, social and consumer environments

Monitoring of secondary data for the East End on the physical, social and consumer environments

Ecological Analysis of Health and Deprivation Indicators for the East

End & Glasgow

Ecological Analysis of Health and Deprivation Indicators for the East

End & Glasgow

A realistic evaluation• Investigation of

Interventions and Pathways to Outcomes

• Programme context• Mechanisms

- Under what circumstances?

- Who benefits (or not)?

GoWell East Research Elements

A Three-stage Longitudinal Survey of a

Resident Cohort

A Three-stage Longitudinal Survey of a

Resident Cohort

A Five-stage longitudinal survey of a Pupil Cohort A Five-stage longitudinal survey of a Pupil Cohort

Quasi-Experimental Design: Main Survey

GoEast 2012

GoEast 2014

GoEast 2016

GoWell2011

GoWell2015

•4-6 GoWell Comparison areas in similar deciles on 2012 SIMD.

•Comparison indicators: employment; housing; neighbourhood; community; health and wellbeing; physical activity.

Quasi-Experimental Design: School Survey

  2013 2014 2015 2016 20172 x East End S1 → S2 → S3 → S4 → S52 x Comparator (Disadvantaged)

S1 → S2 → S3 → S4 → S5

2 x Comparator (Advantaged)

S1 → S2 → S3 → S4 → S5

        

•S1 cohort – 740 pupils in 39 classes •S5 benchmark – 396 pupils in 28 classes

2 x East End S52 x Comparator (Disadvantaged)

S5

2 x Comparator (Advantaged)

S5

Youth Physical Activity Questionnaire (YPAQ):•Sports activities; travel to school; leisure time activities.•In the past week.•Number of times and total duration.

• Household

• Home

• Neighbourhood

• Health & Wellbeing (WEMWBS)

• Physical Activity (IPAQ)

• Sports & Other Activities

• Group & Voluntary Activity

• Modes of Travel

• Commonwealth Games

• Sustainable Behaviours

• Employment & TrainingCohort = 1,015 adults

Sub Group Analysis & Report

Gender:Male; Female

Employment Status:Employed or FT Education; Not working; Retired.

Age Groups:16-25; 26-39; 40-64; 65+

Household Structure:Singles; Couples; Multiple Adults; With Dependent Children.

Ethnicity:White UK & Ireland; Other Ethnic Groups.

Geography:West (Bridgeton); North (Calton & Gallowgate); East(Parkhead & Camlachie); South (Dalmarnock).

Disability:-Respondent disabled; -Household contains a disabled person.

Deprivation:SIMD Quintiles 1&2; SIMD Quintiles 3&4.

Prospective Assessment Considerations

Considerations:8 Qs in 3 Groups:•People & Place•Programmes•Plausibility

Prospects:•High•Medium•Low

Likelihood of impacts:•Likely•Unlikely•Cannot Tell (yet)

 

Scope: How much room for improvement is there based on current performance data for the study area, compared with city and national norms? How much interest is expressed by the study communities in the programmes being delivered or in the outcomes being sought? Do the programmes match people’s expressed preferences?

1: People & Place

Relevance: Are programmes being delivered which are relevant to producing the outcomes being sought? Are the programmes relevant to the needs and interests of the host community? Scale: Are the programmes of sufficient scale (in terms of money or intended participants/beneficiaries) to have impact within the study area? Targeting: Are the programmes targeted in whole or in part upon the East End community? Or is the East End simply one among many areas that may potentially benefit from the programmes? Feasibility: Are programmes being implemented as planned and are outputs emerging which are necessary for impacts upon outcomes? What causal pathways are providers anticipating?

2: Programmes

Evidence: Does the existing evidence from evaluations of other multi-sport events or from other similar programmes indicate that impact upon the outcomes of interest is likely? Barriers & Linkages: Are there identifiable barriers to the programmes having impact upon the East End community, or upon their intended beneficiaries? Is there evidence that indicates that key linkages or elements for success are present or absent from programmes? What causal pathways would the research evidence suggest might be operative or required? Negative Impacts: Are there plausible or verifiable grounds for thinking that programmes could potentially have adverse, unexpected or negative impacts upon the East End community?

3: Plausibility

Glasgow City Council Scottish GovernmentProsperous:-Growing businesses; building careers

Flourishing:-Scottish business growth.-Scotland as a business destination.

International:-Glasgow’s image; attracting events; inward investment; tourism.

Connected:-Scotland’s image as a creative nation.-Artistic and cultural engagement.-Understanding of other nations/cultures.

Inclusive:-Volunteering; learning.

Accessible:-Transport & connectivity.

Sustainable:-Improved physical environment (G&EE)-Improved social environment (G&EE)-Empower communities in Scotland-Sustainable design-Environmental responsibility

Accessible:-Sustainable travel.

Green:-Use of green spaces; sustainable living standards – carbon emissions; waste.

Active:-Inspiring physical activity & sports participation.-Providing world-class facilities;-Active culture; sports club development.

Active:-Helping Scotland’s population to be more physically active -Active infrastructure-Sporting success

Prospective Assessment in Two Parts

Prosperous

•growing businesses by improving performance

•building careers through training and employment•transforming deprived communities by investing in regeneration

The Economic Agenda: Prosperous/ Flourishing

Flourishing

•Increase movement into employment, training and volunteering•Increase growth of Scottish Business

•Improve the perception of Scotland as a world class destination for business, events and tourismInternational

Inclusive

Employment & Employability• It is expected that regeneration in the East

End, preparations for the Games and the Games itself may provide either:– Direct Employment through: construction work;

working in the new facilities; business supply chain to the Games; in firms locating to new sites and buildings in the area.

– Improved Employability through: training opportunities around regeneration and Games construction; volunteering at the Games itself.

• To what extent will people in the East End seek or acquire these opportunities?

People & Place – Scope?

The Complexity of the Situation

Relevance

•Unemployment

•Training & qualifications

•Equality groups (e.g. health & wellbeing, age)

2: ProgrammesScale

•Financial investment

•Jobs/ training places

•Quality of work

•Duration of work

Targeting

•East End Targeted (EET)

•East End Applicable (EE/A)

•Glasgow (targeted or applicable)

•Scotland [Also

international]

• 35 developments and programmes with economic or employment objectives.

Prosperous/ Flourishing Legacy

Programmes

Long term

outcomes

Medium term

outcomes

Short term

outcomes

ActivitiesResources and

contexts

33

3: Plausibility

• Stakeholder analysis/ planning

• The research base

• Early evidence

3: Plausibility

Prosperous/ Flourishing

ProcurementProcurement

Community Benefit

Community Benefit

Employer SubsidiesEmployer Subsidies

Employability Programmes Employability Programmes

• Targets being met/ exceeded

• Aspirations for employment.

• Support for school leavers, graduates, unemployed & older workers

• Some use of ‘living wage’.

• Consideration of gender

• Some evidence of additional funding/ programmes levered

• Programmes have built on London 2012 experience and what works elsewhere.

Prosperous/ Flourishing

ProcurementProcurement

Community Benefit

Community Benefit

Employer SubsidiesEmployer Subsidies

Employability ProgrammesEmployability Programmes

BUT• Some ‘jobs’ notional• Some (very) low wages • Health barriers?• Low rates of employment

(15%) in our survey among those who had been in training / apprenticeship.

• A lot of development still to take place.

• Uncertainty about growth strategy and link to skills development programmes.

3: Plausibility

Going for Gold? Now and next…

• Develop a prospective assessment of six legacy themes based on :- People & place- Programmes- Plausibility

• Drawing on stakeholder knowledge and research evidence to understand problem definition and theorised mechanisms

• Evaluate the relative weight of each theme and its importance for the East End