Study Results

High Gas SensitivityLow Gas Sensitivity

High High Gas SensitivityLow Low Gas Sensitivity

This slide deck contains results from the 2011 TEPPC Study Program. This study shows the results of how production cost, generation dispactch, and transmission utilization differ from the Common Case and a result of different gas prices.

2

2022 PC1-3 – High Gas Price Sensitivity• Central Question: How does production

cost, generation dispatch, and transmission utilization change if gas prices are greater than assumed in the Common Case (CC)?

• Change to starting input assumptions:o Loads – noneo Transmission System – Noneo Generation – Henry Hub gas price increased

from $5.43 to $9.50 ($2012), 175% of CC price

• Results follow…

3

Conventional Hydro

Pumped Storage

Steam - Coal

Steam - Other

Nuclear

Combined Cycle

Combustion Turbine

Cogeneration

IC

Negative Bus Load

Biomass RPS

Geothermal

Small Hydro RPS

Solar

Wind

(15,000,000) (10,000,000) (5,000,000) 0 5,000,000 10,000,000

Annual Energy Difference: 2022 PC1 Common Case vs. 2022 PC1-3 High Gas Price Fixed DR

GWh

2022 High Gas Price Results – Changes in Total Annual Generation

GWh

(MWh)

Other Results (see TEPPC Glossary for definitions) PC1 PC1-3  Difference %DiffDump Energy 397,104 131,258 (265,847) -66.946%Emergency Energy 2,676 3,297 621 23.201%

CO2 Emissions (MMetricTons) 359 363 3 0.940%

CO2 Adder ($/metric ton) 0.000 0.000

Variable Production Cost (thermal units excl DSM)

CO2 Adder (Total M$) 0 0 0 0.000% Other Variable Costs (M$) 14,851 21,321 6,470 43.565%

Total Var. Prod. Cost (M$) 14,851 21,321 6,470 43.565%

4

2022 High Gas Price Results – Changes in Generation by State

Alberta

Arizon

a

British

Colu

mbia

Califo

rnia

Colora

do

Idah

o

Mex

ico

Mon

tana

Nevad

a

New M

exico

Orego

n

South

Dak

ota

Texas

Utah

Was

hingt

on

Wyo

ming

-10,000,000

-8,000,000

-6,000,000

-4,000,000

-2,000,000

0

2,000,000

4,000,000

Annual Energy Difference: 2022 PC1 Common Case vs. 2022 PC1-3 High Gas Price Fixed DR

Hydro+PS Steam - Boiler Combined Cycle Combustion Turbine

Cogeneration Renewable Other

GWh

5

2022 High Gas Price Results – Changes in Region-Region Transfers

AZNMNV To Ca_S

Basin To AZNMNV

Basin To Ca_N

Basin To Ca_S

Ca_N To Ca_S

Canada To NWUS

NWUS To Basin

NWUS To Ca_N

NWUS To Ca_S

RMPA To AZNMNV

RMPA To Basin

-1000

-500

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

Region to Region Transfers - aMW

2022 PC1 2022 PC1-3

6

2022 High Gas Price Results – Changes in Transmission Utilization

P45 SDG&E-CFE

P29 Intermountain-Gonder

P26 Northern-Southern California

P03 Northwest-British Columbia

P47 – Southern New Mexico

P66 COI *NEW*

Most Heavily Utilized PathsIncreases in U90 Relative to Common Case >5% Indicated in Red

P08 Montana to Northwest

P27 IPP DC Line

P11 West of Crossover

P10 West of Colstrip

P01 Alberta-British Columbia

P60 Inyo-Control

Most Heavily Utilized Paths 75% Limit 90% Limit 99% Limit P45 SDG&E-CFE 55.70% 45.51% 39.70%Interstate WA-BC West 56.34% 33.20% 12.45%P26 Northern-Southern California 46.48% 33.03% 25.19%P03 Northwest-British Columbia 56.56% 32.85% 19.73%P08 Montana to Northwest 54.49% 26.83% 11.72%P29 Intermountain-Gonder 230 kV 43.98% 26.48% 16.32%P66 COI 40.53% 25.39% 10.25%P47 Southern New Mexico (NM1) 50.53% 23.68% 9.33%P60 Inyo-Control 115 kV Tie 33.34% 17.42% 5.88%Interstate WA-BC East 32.15% 15.08% 7.88%P11 West of Crossover 67.59% 13.11% 0.10%

Study Results

Low Gas Sensitivity

8

2022 PC1-4a – Low Gas Price Sensitivity• Central Question: How does production

cost, generation dispatch, and transmission utilization change if gas prices are less than assumed in the Common Case (CC)?

• Change to starting input assumptions:o Loads – noneo Transmission System – Noneo Generation – Henry Hub gas price decreased

from $5.43 to $4.07 ($2012), 75% of CC price

• Results follow…

9

2022 Low Gas Price Results – Changes in Total Annual Generation

GWh

(MWh)

Conventional Hydro

Pumped Storage

Steam - Coal

Steam - Other

Nuclear

Combined Cycle

Combustion Turbine

Cogeneration

IC

Negative Bus Load

Biomass RPS

Geothermal

Small Hydro RPS

Solar

Wind

(10,000,000) (5,000,000) 0 5,000,000 10,000,000 15,000,000

Annual Energy Difference: 2022 PC1 Common Case vs. 2022 PC1-4 Low Gas (Fixed DR)

GWh

Other Results (see TEPPC Glossary for definitions) PC1 PC1-4 Difference %DiffDump Energy 397,104 436,889 39,785 10.019%Emergency Energy 2,676 3,114 437 16.340%CO2 Emissions (MMetricTons) 359 354 (6) -1.576%

CO2 Adder ($/metric ton) 0.000 0.000

Variable Production Cost (thermal units excl DSM)

CO2 Adder (Total M$) 0 0 0 0.000% Other Variable Costs (M$) 14,851 12,596 (2,255) -15.186%

Total Var. Prod. Cost (M$) 14,851 12,596 (2,255) -15.186%

10

2022 Low Gas Price Results – Changes in Generation by State

Alberta

Arizon

a

British

Colu

mbia

Califo

rnia

Colora

do

Idah

o

Mex

ico

Mon

tana

Nevad

a

New M

exico

Orego

n

South

Dak

ota

Texas

Utah

Was

hingt

on

Wyo

ming

-4,000,000

-2,000,000

0

2,000,000

4,000,000

6,000,000

8,000,000

Annual Energy Difference: 2022 PC1 Common Case vs. 2022 PC1-4 Low Gas (Fixed DR)

Hydro+PS Steam - Boiler Combined Cycle Combustion Turbine

Cogeneration Renewable Other

GWh

11

2022 Low Gas Price Results – Changes in Region-Region Transfers

AZNMNV To Ca_S

Basin To AZNMNV

Basin To Ca_N

Basin To Ca_S

Ca_N To Ca_S

Canada To NWUS

NWUS To Basin

NWUS To Ca_N

NWUS To Ca_S

RMPA To AZNMNV

RMPA To Basin

-500

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

Region to Region Transfers - aMW

2022 2022 PC1-4

12

2022 Low Gas Price Results – Changes in Transmission Utilization

P45 SDG&E-CFE

P29 Intermountain-Gonder

P26 Northern-Southern California

P03 Northwest-British Columbia

P47 – Southern New MexicoP61 Lugo-Victorville *NEW*

Most Heavily Utilized PathsIncreases in U90 Relative to Common >5% Case Indicated in Red

P08 Montana to Northwest

P60 Inyo-Control

P27 IPP DC Line

P11 West of Crossover

P10 West of Colstrip

P01 Alberta-British Columbia

Most Headily Congested Paths 75% Limit

90% Limit

99% Limit

P45 SDG&E-CFE 44.55% 35.96% 31.64%P26 Northern-Southern California 49.84% 34.24% 25.00%P08 Montana to Northwest 55.29% 25.67% 11.99%Interstate WA-BC West 45.89% 23.73% 8.77%P03 Northwest-British Columbia 44.95% 23.18% 15.38%P47 Southern New Mexico (NM1) 45.78% 22.47% 9.18%P29 Intermountain-Gonder 230 kV 42.18% 19.24% 8.16%P60 Inyo-Control 115 kV Tie 34.43% 17.61% 6.32%P11 West of Crossover 60.83% 14.33% 0.00%P66 COI 22.19% 11.93% 1.63%P01 Alberta-British Columbia 13.61% 11.12% 9.54%

Questions or thoughts on this study?