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© World Energy Council 2015

Studies Committee

Meeting

Manila, 16 June 2015


World Energy

Trilemma

Diletta Giuliani



Launch of 2015 Trilemma report

The energy sector is ready for an

ambitious climate agreement and calls for

an international framework with a clear

measurable target for greenhouse gas

(GHG) emissions that enables fair

competition and sets a clear pathway

towards low-carbon energy systems.

► Presentation at Clean Energy Ministerial (27 May)

► Presentation at Canadian Energy Summit (27 May)

► Distribution of report among all UNFCCC / INDC national

focal points


2015 Energy Trilemma Index

► Uses same methodology as in

previous years

► Now covers 130 countries, Iraq

included for first time (rank 89)

► Member Committees are invited

to review and comment on

country profiles

► Member Committees are invited

to contribute to the assessment

whether country should be on

watch list

► Launch of the Index planned for

September / October 2015

2015 Rank Country (2014 rank) Balance

1 Switzerland (1) AAA

2 Sweden (2) AAA

3 Norway (3) AAB

4 United Kingdom (4) AAA

5 Austria (7) AAB

6 Denmark (5) AAB

7 Canada (6) AAC

8 France (9) AAB

9 Finland (8) AAB

10 New Zealand (10) ABB


Plans for 2016 Trilemma report

► New models to compensate energy companies for the services they

provide are required as current market designs do not yet reflect

changes in energy supply and energy technology.

► Suggested 2016 topic: market designs for sustainable energy • Electricity

• Gas

• Carbon

• Transportation (fuel)

► Opportunities and challenges of energy only vs. not energy only (e.g.

capacity mechanisms, flexibility models, hybrid models)

► Relevance for OECD and non-OECD countries • Developed countries face a pressing issue as incumbent infrastructure ages and emission goals

for the energy sector are to be met

• Developing countries will have a longer timeframe for implementation but still need to think about

market design as they develop a roadmap for sustainable development


Timeline update

Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2015 Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016

2nd half of 2015

• Launch of 2015 Index results (TBC)

• Presentation of Index results at EA in

Ethiopia

2015 In

dex

2015 T

rile

mm

a r

ep

ort

Mid-Jun

• Approval of

2016 research

topic by

Studies

Committee

2nd half of 2015

• Review of current Index methodology

• Additional comments welcome NOW

• Identification of solutions to criticism

and enhancement opportunities

• Discussion with group of WEC experts

• Test modifications to methodology

• Invite academic institutions to join a

review board; suggestions welcome

Mid-Mar

• First review

opportunity

for Studies

Committee

Ind

ex 2

.0

Mid-Apr

• WEC Studies

Committee for

final sign-off

(1 week)

Mid-May

• Launch of

perspective at

CEM7 meeting

(TBC)

Feb-Mar

• Share modified

methodology

with academic

partners

• Additional

modifications

where

appropriate

Apr-May

• Studies

Committee to

review and

agree to

modifications

Jul

• Collect new

data

Sep-Oct

• Launch of

Index 2.0 /

2016 Index

(TBC)


World Energy

Scenarios

Ged Davis, Executive Chair

Manila

16 June 2015


Global scenarios

Global trends / critical uncertainties

Techno-economic innovation

Socio-political development

Global agenda: opportunities and risks

Following the launch of the World Energy Scenarios 2013,

SSG are now focussing on the following scenario aspects

Regional scenarios

Regional impact and sensitivities

Regional market issues and priorities

Energy security, trade and investment

Country scenarios

Country supply and demand

Country risks and opportunities

Country energy policies and strategy

Business strategy and decisions

October

2016

LAC

Phase 2

February

2016

© World Energy Council 2015 9

Deep dives focussed on issues of client strategic interest

Issues of client

strategic

interest

Energy

access

Energy-water-

food nexus

Urban

challenges

Resilience LT 2060

Resources,

infrastructure,

funding

Large

hydro

Bio-

energy

E-

storage

E-

mobility

Extreme

weather

events

Cyber

attacks,

social

activism

Energy

risks


These themes are anchored in specific regions

Issues of client

strategic

interest

Energy

access

Energy-water-

food nexus

Urban

challenges

Resilience LT 2060

Resources,

infrastructure,

funding

Large

hydro

Bio-

energy

E-

storage

E-

mobility

Extreme

weather

events

Cyber

attacks,

social

activism

Energy

risks

Regional interest

Asia & / or EU / Russia

scenarios

World 2060 scenarios

LAC & Africa scenarios

Themes


LAC & Africa scenarios are informed by key WEC events

WEC Scenario Milestones: 2014-2016

Issues of client

strategic

interest

Energy

access

Energy-water-

food nexus

Urban

challenges

Resilience LT 2060

Resources,

infrastructure,

funding

Large

hydro

Bio-

energy

E-

storage

E-

mobility

Extreme

weather

events

Cyber

attacks,

social

activism

Energy

risks

Regional interest

2014

WELS

Latin

America

2015

WELS Africa

2015/16

WELS Asia & / or

EU /

Russia

2016

Congress

& WELS World

Asia & / or EU / Russia

scenarios

World 2060 scenarios

LAC & Africa scenarios


Work Programme 2015 Study Group: 103 members from 35 countries.

Global scenario workshops

16, 17 March, London

26,27 May, London

Regional scenario workshops

IEC, 30 January, New Delhi, India

Indaba, 16 February,Johannesburg, South Africa

ADB, 16 June, Manila Philipines

Regional Deep Dives

Africa Scenario Phase 1 workshop, 18 March, London

Progress to date:

• Accenture confirmed as Scenario Project partner and leading the E-mobility and Lead Author for

the Gas KN. On-boarding, planning and co-ordination ongoing.

• WEC Jazz & Symphony scenarios included as example pathways for Global Calculator launch

in London & Beijing, 30 January.

• Electrobras, UPME and CAF secured as funders for the LAC Scenario Phase 2 study, high level

project plan compiled and discussed with Electrobras and UPME.

• Interviews for interns for Scenarios & Resources held, with one appointed full-time and two part-

time. On-boarding and training continues.

• Various presentations prepared for speakers at forums and conferences such as World Water

Forum, Daegu; Indaba; IEC; etc.

• Interviews with WEC Officers, Global Patron and Project Partners underway


Process to deliver global scenarios

Sep. 2014 workshop

Critical issues for

scenarios

Subject

matter

experts

Mar. 2015 workshop

Jul. 2015 workshop

Indaba Regional worksho

p

India Regional worksho

p

Manila Regional workshop

Jazz & Symphony Scenarios lenses

Other Regional workshop

Sep 2014 Mar 2015 May 2015 Jul 2015 Sep 2015 Dec 2015 Apr 2016 Oct 2016

Fra

min

g a

nd r

esearc

h

Scenarios, Impacts and

Key Messages

Reports

Modelling Testing Develop storylines


The Study Committee is required to:

Approve the postponement of the Africa Scenarios Phase 1 to ensure

sufficient resources are available to deliver quality LAC Phase 2 scenarios

that could serve as an example of a regional scenario deep dive. It would

further assist in making resources available for the global scenarios.9

Interviews with WEC Officers, Global Patrons and Project Partners to be completed

and analysed for global scenarios

Global scenarios framing workshop

Prototype global scenarios and additional research

Global scenario development workshop

Scoping agreement between parties on LAC scenarios Phase 2, deepening of Phase

1 work and modelling

On-boarding and training of new staff and Accenture members

First draft of E-mobility paper

Next steps


Hans-Wilhelm Schiffer, Executive Chair

Manila

16 June 2015

World Energy

Resources


Project Process Overview (i)

Chapter /

Issue Paper

Implications, key

messages, conclusion

Data verification, analyses,

interpretation

Survey of 93 Member

Committees

Description of topic, related

issues, impact, desktop

research

Resource

World

Energy

Resources

Report

Resource- specific

paper, (could be

published as a

‘Perspective’)

16

Coal Oil Gas Peat Uranium

and Nuclear

Hydropower Wind Solar Geothermal Bioenergy Waste Marine

Energies

Energy

Efficiency Technologies

Carbon Capture,

Utilisation and Storage

Energy Storage

Knowledge

Networks

Study

Group

Resources

Following the launch of The World Energy Resources 2013 publication,

we are now starting to launch the next set of Knowledge Networks


Work Programme 2014 - 2016

Study Group: 167 members from 43 countries.

Physical meetings:

January, June, August & December 2014 in London

March 2015 in London

June 2015 in Paris

Tele-Conferences with Knowledge Networks

Held on hydropower, E-storage, bioenergy, waste-to-energy and gas

Lead author calls took place on waste-to-energy, CCUS & E-storage

Progress to date:

• Additional nominations received and on-boarded.

• Interviews for interns for Scenarios & Resources held, with one appointed full-time and

two part-time. On-boarding and training continues.

• Input and presentations for various sessions on Unconventional Gas and LNG

• Hydro Report with accompanying flyer, launched at the International Hydro Conference,

Beijing, May. Additional MC package, press releases, articles, interviews and speeches

prepared.

• Draft 1 Waste-to-Energy Chapter report done and reviewed, additional work needed.

• Accenture confirmed as Lead Author for the Gas KN, exploring possibilities for E4Tech

as Lead Author for Bioenergy.

• Exploring options to pre-populate and automate data for each country in the Resources

Survey to facilitate an easier process for the Member Committees


Milestones for the next months

• Secure lead authors for outstanding resources

• Explore project partner or consultants for the data processing and analysis of

the Resources Survey

• Ensure each resource area has a relevant and useful focus area

• Determine most appropriate format to showcase work (report, presentation,

soft copy, roadmap, flyer, infographics etc.)

• Continue activities and recruitment for Knowledge Networks

• Review Resources survey and data collection process

• Refine chapter structure, focus areas and presentation formats

• Send out pre-populated and electronic Resources Survey to Member

Committees

• On-board and train new staff

• Start additional KNs and finalise individual project plans

• First draft Gas paper

• First draft E-storage paper


Required from the Study Committee

Take note that:

The Resource Survey will be sent out to Member Committees at the end of

June 2015 and completed replies requested for 30 September 2015.

Additional resources would be required in order to obtain, verify and analyse

data deliver a quality product with credible and reliable data.

19


Financing Resilient

Energy Infrastructure

• Katrina Kelly



Financing resilient energy infrastructure

► Risk mitigation is about understanding the inputs and having the

ability to accept the uncertainties at a project level and adapt to them

► Energy infrastructure needs to be continuously adaptable to the

current environment

► Emerging risks need to be better understood:

• to enable the development of appropriate technical and design

responses and

• to understand the financial implications.


How do we define resilient energy infrastructure?

► Resilience for infrastructure refers to the robustness and recovery

characteristics of energy infrastructure and operations, to avoid or

minimize interruptions of service in case of a hazardous event.

► Resilience measures for energy infrastructure are typically classified

as “hard” or “soft” measures.

• Hard resilience: “Safe-fail”; ensure infrastructure withstands

sudden impacts that can affect entire system

• Soft resilience: “Fail-safe”; Ensure infrastructure responds

quickly to sudden impacts. Accepts that part of the system may go

down

22


Work focus until 2016 Congress

23

Investigating five risk

dimensions

Energy-water-food

nexus

Extreme weather

Technical efficacy

Social activism

Cyber threats


Frontloaded chapter: Extreme weather – findings

Regional differences Adaptation options /

strategy

Key constraints Underlying policy and

regulatory framework

Impacts of extreme weather

vary from region to region in

terms of the type of extreme

weather events, frequency of

occurrence and impact on

energy infrastructure.

Extreme weather is any kind

of weather which is severe,

unusual, and not seasonal,

and include, storms (wintry

and tropical events), storm

surges, flooding, and erosion.

Comparing the last 5 years to

the last 20 years, the number

of extreme weather events has

increased by 40%.

Natural catastrophe-related

losses (Swiss Re):

- Asia USD 52bn

- North America USD 29bn

- Europe USD 16bn

- LAC USD 8bn

Two different approaches

that are often referred to as

“hard” - build strong enough

for the system not to go down

- and “soft” resilience -

assumption the system will

go down but is build flexible

enough to operate again

quickly.

Examples of adaptation

options include,

strengthening of overhead

transmission and distribution

infrastructure, underground

cabling for utilities or re-

routing lines, reduced

dependence on single

sources of energy, early

warning systems, distributed

energy systems, local

empowerment etc.

Limited availability of data

and information (climate risk

assessments) to support

financial modelling.

Lack of reliable data and

information delays

development and

implementation of improved

design standards.

Unlocking adaptation finance

depends on the ability to

recoup the investments made

(tariffs), currently not possible.

Access to viable alternatives.

Technological innovation.

Public acceptance of new

technologies is often low.

Lack of instruments for

transferring weather and

climate risks.

Current policy and regulation

focus on mitigation. They

provide incentives and set

standards for future.

Lack of regulatory guidance

on adaptation and how much

resilience is enough. Without

regulatory guidance

increased resilience is not

related to an additional

revenue stream and hence

less attractive for the

investor.

Financial regulation prevents

certain investor groups from

entering the market.


Timeline update

Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2015 Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016

Mid-June

• Deadline for

initial

comments from

Studies

Committee

• Incorporate

findings

• Share revised

draft with MCs

Early Aug

• WEC Studies

Committee for

final sign-off

(1-2 weeks)

Extr

em

e w

eath

er

Early Oct

• Launch of

perspective at

APEC event

(TBC)

En

erg

y-w

ate

r-fo

od

Early Aug

• Share initial

draft with KN,

Studies

Committee

End Oct

• Launch /

Presentation at

EA in Ethiopia

(TBC)

Early Oct

• WEC Studies

Committee for

final sign-off

(1-2 weeks)

Multi-layer review process

1. Project team

2. Knowledge Network

3. WEC Member Committees

4. WEC Studies Committees

5. Final sign-off

Next steps to be discussed at Studies Committee meeting in Ethiopia

• Cyber next front-loaded chapter to be released late Q1 2016

• For Congress work on integrated report that includes all five risk dimensions Oth

ers

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