student-managed investment fund 1 implied return: 44% ... · -o.z5 investment thesis ... the market...

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MUMA COLLEGE OF B USI NESS S TUDENT- MANAGED INVESTMENT F UND NYSE: PANW 1 Current Price: $142 1 Intrinsic Value: $154 1 3Yr Target Price: $204 1 Implied Return: 44% Company Profile Recommendation Palo Alto Networks is the next-generation secu ri ty company, leading a new era in B uy cybersecurity by safely enabling applications and preventing cyber breaches for thousands of organizations worldwide. Price Performance Key Statistics 2017 0.25 0.2 0.15 O.> 0.05 0 Jill -O.os -0.1 -o. Z5 Investment Thesis - PANW -S&P 500 • Increased spending on cybersecurity by companies and governments due to significant number of high-profile cyber attacks • Adoption of a hybrid SaaS model will allow Palo Alto to receive recurring revenue from subscription-based services • Penetration into growing markets through new products and strategic acquisitions • Rapid development of the Internet of Things will make companies and governments more vulnerable to damaging cyber attacks Risks • Inability to remain innovative • Significant cyber attack on one of its customers • Adverse changes in macroeconomic conditions • Change in dynamics of relationships with channel partners NYSE: PANW I Equity Research I January 24, 2017 Analysts: Marc Costello, Jeremy Davis, Quan Nguyen, and Madison Suhr

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Page 1: STUDENT-MANAGED INVESTMENT FUND 1 Implied Return: 44% ... · -o.Z5 Investment Thesis ... The market is expected to grow from $75 billion in 2016 to 175 ... its product segment have

MUMA COLLEGE OF BUSINESS

STUDENT-MANAGED INVESTMENT FUND

NYSE: PANW 1 Current Price: $142 1 Intrinsic Value: $154 1 3Yr Target Price: $204 1 Implied Return: 44%

Company Profile Recommendation

Palo Alto Networks is the next-generation securi ty company, leading a new era in B u y cybersecurity by safely enabling applications and preventing cyber breaches for

thousands of organizations worldwide.

Price Performance Key Statistics 2017

0.25

0.2

0 .15

O.>

0.05

0 Jill

-O.os

-0.1

0.1 ~

-o. Z5

Investment Thesis

- PANW -S&P 500

• Increased spending on cybersecurity by companies and governments due to significant number of high-profile

cyber attacks

• Adoption of a hybrid SaaS model will allow Palo Alto to receive recurring revenue from subscription-based services

• Penetration into growing markets through new products and strategic acquisitions

• Rapid development of the Internet of Things will make companies and governments more vulnerable to damaging

cyber attacks

Risks

• Inability to remain innovative • Significant cyber attack on one of its customers

• Adverse changes in macroeconomic conditions • Change in dynamics of relationships with channel partners

NYSE: PANW I Equity Research I January 24, 2017 Analysts: Marc Costello, Jeremy Davis, Quan Nguyen, and Madison Suhr

Page 2: STUDENT-MANAGED INVESTMENT FUND 1 Implied Return: 44% ... · -o.Z5 Investment Thesis ... The market is expected to grow from $75 billion in 2016 to 175 ... its product segment have

Investment Thesis Breakdown

MUMA COLLEGE OF BUSINESS

STUDENT-MANAGED INVESTMENT FUND

Increasing Cybersecurity Spending Due to Growing Cybercrime

In 2016, Yahoo! discovered two major cyber-attack events, the first one being the largest in history with over one

billion victims. This resulted in a financial loss to Yahoo! that summed in the hundreds of millions of dollars. Attacks

such as these have been increasing annually and affect corporations and government agencies alike. In 2015, the

U.S. government experienced 77,000 cyber-attacks, an increase of 10% from the previous year. Such attacks often

result in massive data breaches, which often lead to financial loss for victims.

Recent Cybercrime

Victims YAHOO! eb Linked 1m JPMorganChase 0

This reality has resulted in increased spending on cybersecurity by both the public and private sectors which is

expected to continue into the foreseeable future. The market is expected to grow from $75 billion in 2016 to 175

billion in 2020. We believe that Palo Alto is uniquely positioned to capitalize on this trend due to the efficacy of its

advanced cybersecurity platform.

Improving Revenue and Margins from a Hybrid-Saas Model

Operating Income Operating Margin

$271

20%

17% 18%

16%

$153 12%

I I 10%

$70 $72 $39

I $48

FY'13 FY'14 FY'15 FY'16 Q1'16 Q1'17 FY'13 FY'14 FY'15 FY'16 Q1'16 Q1'17

Over the past three years, Palo Alto has experienced shift in the makeup of its revenues. Historically, revenues from

its product segment have accounted for a larger percentage of total revenue than its services segment. In 2016, the

services segment surpassed the product segment, accounting for 51% of total revenue realized for the year. The

company attributes this shift to the adoption of its hybrid SaaS revenue model. This model offers customers a blend

of differentiated products and services on a single platform. This gives Palo Alto the opportunity to upsell its services

to customers, increasing operating margins.

NYSE: PANW I Equity Research I January 24, 2017 Analysts: Marc Costello, Jeremy Davis, Quan Nguyen, and Madison Suhr 2

Page 3: STUDENT-MANAGED INVESTMENT FUND 1 Implied Return: 44% ... · -o.Z5 Investment Thesis ... The market is expected to grow from $75 billion in 2016 to 175 ... its product segment have

Investment Thesis Breakdown (Continued)

MUMA COLLEGE OF BUSINESS

STUDENT-MANAGED INVESTMENT FUND

Penetration into Growing Markets through New Products and Strategic Acquisitions

Palo Alto has identified areas where companies and governments are lacking sufficient cyber security capabilities.

The company noticed the trend of employees working remotely by use of laptops, tablets, and smartphones. Seeing

vulnerability, Palo Alto launched GlobaiProtect, which provides security to iOS and Android devices.

The use of the cloud is essential to day-to-day operations for most businesses. Keeping information in the cloud

secure can be a challenge for many organizations. Palo Alto launched WildFire in 2012 to provide security for the

cloud and then acquired Marta Security in 2016 to enhance its capabilities. Palo Alto also acquired CirroSecure in

2015 to enhance its SaaS security capabilities.

Rapid Growth of the Internet of Things Makes Companies Vulnerable

The phenomenon known as the "Internet of Things" is a macro trend that has encompassed the globe. In 2015,

there was an estimated 25 billion devices connected to the internet, a number that is expected to increase to 50

billion by 2020. As this number and the complexity of connected devices increases, more and more devices will

become susceptible to cyber-attacks. Palo Alto's Next Generation Security Platform has the capability to address

these vulnerabilities associated with the cloud, endpoints, or firewall.

NYSE: PANW I Equity Research I January 24, 2017 Analysts: Marc Costello, Jeremy Davis, Quan Nguyen, and Madison Suhr 3

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Business Summary

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With over 35,500 customers, Palo Alto Networks is one of the largest cyber security providers in the world. Its core

portfolio of competencies is threat intelligence, endpoint protection, and advanced firewall. The company provides its

solutions to enterprises and governments worldwide. Palo Alto's products are used in industries which include

telecommunications, manufacturing, education, healthcare, energy, and financial services. Currently, Palo Alto

Networks has a 12.4% market share of the cybersecurity industry, which is third to Cisco and Checkpoint. The

company operates in two segments; products and services. These two segments make up 49% and 51% of

revenues respectively. Palo Alto Networks was founded in 2005 by a former Checkpoint engineer and is

headquartered in Santa Clara, California.

Products

Overview

Palo Alto's approach to cybersecurity starts with prevention. In order to prevent cyber attacks for companies and

governments, Palo Alto created its Next-Generation Security Platform. This platform's approach aims to prevent

cyber attacks by giving customers visibility into their network and preventing existing or new threats. The different

components of this platform are listed below.

Wildfire

Traps

WildFire is Palo Alto's cloud-based threat analysis service for its Next-Generation

platform users. WildFire works in conjunction with Next-Generation Firewall, Aperture,

and GlobaiProtect to analyze and prevent new or unknown threats. If a new file is

passed through the firewall, it will be sent to WildFire for analysis. WildFire then

analyzes the file and determines if it poses a threat. If so, all of WildFire users will be

notifited.

Traps is Palo Alto's advanced endpoint protection service, a replacement for traditional

antivirus programs. Traditional antivirus software has become obselete and is unable to

protect its users from advanced threats. Traps stops malware, identifies unknown

threats, and prevents them from harming customers' computers. Traps also utilizes

WildFire's capabilities.

NYSE: PANW I Equity Research I January 24, 2017 Analysts: Marc Costello, Jeremy Davis, Quan Nguyen, and Madison Suhr 4

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Products (Continued)

Globa I Protect

Aperture

APERTU!Jf

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STUDENT-MANAGED INVESTMENT FUND

It is very common for companies to have employees work remotely from home on

laptops, tablets, and cell phones. When an employee does this, they are operating on

a separate network that may not be as protected as the company's own network. The

devices used remotely can bring harmful data back to the company and cause various

issues. GlobaiProtect secures those devices so that employees can work remotely and

safely bring their devices back to their company. GlobaiProtect protects personal

devices. Companies that adopt the bring-your-own-device model can secure selected

enterprise applications on personal devices.

Aperture is Palo Alto's solution to securing customers' SaaS applications. Many

enterprises use SaaS applications such as Google Drive and DropBox everyday. These

SaaS applications are independent and are not protected by enterprises' security.

Aperture solves this issue. A user of Aperture can add various SaaS applications to the

service and monitor the amount of users using each application. Aperture also notifies

administrators of any sensitive or malicious data that enters or exits the application. For

example, if a document is shared on DropBox that should not be shared, a notification

is sent to Aperture administrators so that they can address the issue.

Next-Generation Firewall

h - -Services

The Next-Generation Firewall is central to Palo Alto's Next-Generation Security

Platform. The firewall monitors all traffic on the platform and classifies it based on user,

content, and application. It works with WildFire to prevent attacks associated with the

cloud, with Aperture to prevent attacks associated with SaaS applications, and works

with GlobaiProtect to prevent attacks associated with remote devices.

Palo Alto's goal is to make the integration of its products seamless and easy. The company offers 24/7 support and

maintenance services to clients to complement the products it offers. This includes education services, which are

designed to inform employees of the functionalities of the platform. Consulting services are also available to aid

customers with their projects.

NYSE: PANW I Equity Research I January 24, 2017 Analysts: Marc Costello, Jeremy Davis, Quan Nguyen, and Madison Suhr 5

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Industry

Since 2014, the cybersecurity index has been outperforming

the S&P 500. We expect this trend to continue for the next

several years due to security concerns surrounding the

Internet of Things, Bring-Your-Own-Device trends, and web

and cloud-based business applications.

According to Cybersecurity Ventures, cybercrime damages

are expected to cost the world approximately $6 trillion

annually by 2021, up from $3 trillion in 2015. As a result,

sales from cybersecurity products and services to counter

cybercrime could exceed $1 trillion cumulatively between

2017 and 2021.

North America accounted for the largest share of the

cybersecurity market in 2016 due to the number of large

technology vendors, technological advancements and early

adoption of cybersecurity. The U.S. government and

enterprises are spending large sums to strengthen their

cybersecurity capabilities.

120%

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

0%

·20%

MUMA COLLEGE OF BUSINESS

STUDENT-MANAGED INVESTMENT FUND

- Cybersecurity Index - S&P 500

Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16

The U.S. government has increased its annual cybersecurity budget by 35% this year. J.P. Morgan Chase & Co.

recently doubled its annual spending for cybersecurity from $250 million to $500 million, wh ile Bank of America

admitted to having no budget constraint regarding its cybersecurity spending.

Competitive Advantages

Palo Alto Networks has several competitive advantages over its competitors due to the features and capabilities of

its Next-Generation Security Platform. Traditional firewalls identify network traffic by IP and port number, which

provide users with little information about what they are dectecting. Palo Alto's advanded platform identifies network

traffic by application, user and content. Because of this, users of Palo Alto's platform are able to have in-depth visibil­

ity into all traffic and all applications, giving them more control and better protection against cyber threats.

Palo Alto's platform offers superior performance compared to traditional approaches and reduces the total cost of

ownership for users by simplifying their security infrastructure and removing the complications arising from using

several stand-alone security appliances and software products.

NYSE: PANW I Equity Research I January 24, 2017 Analysts: Marc Costello, Jeremy Davis, Quan Nguyen, and Madison Suhr 6

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MUMA COLLEGE OF BUSINESS

STUDENT-MANAGED INVESTMENT FUND

Competition

Cybersecurity firms compete on four main factors: cost, features, integration, and brand awareness. Palo Alto

Networks has been able to capture 15% of the enterprise firewall market in 10 years. This is due to the development

of its products and successful marketing, which is vital in cybersecurity. However, Palo Alto still faces stiff

competition from Cisco, Juniper, IBM, Intel, FireEye, and other competitors. Below are Palo Alto's main competitors:

Cisco offers a variety of online security platforms for enterprises such as email

protection, fi rewalls, VPN security, and web security. Cisco's large size allows

them to invest heavily in R&D, giving them a competitive advantage. Security

firms spend billions each year to market their products to the world and Cisco

has the capital to do this on a massive scale.

Checkpoint provides both software and hardware for IT security worldwide.

Their portfolio of products includes endpoint, mobile, network, and data security.

Recently, Checkpoint has begun offering cloud security to compete with Palo

Alto's acquisition of Morta. Checkpoint has the second highest market share in

the cybersecurity market.

FireEye is a provider of cybersecurity services and equipment for various gov­

ernments around the world. The firm is most recognized for advancements in

threat response services and intelligence feeds. FireEye has been making small

acquisitions to broaden its market exposure to enterprise.

Manufacturing & Distribution

I I I I I I I I I

CISCO

Check Poinf SOFTWARE TECHNOLOGIES LTD.

' <r0 Fire Eye·

Palo Alto outsources its manufacturing, repair, and supply chain management operations to an independent

contractor. This independent contractor assembles Palo Alto's products based on demand forecasts from the

company. The company bases these forecasts on historical trends and market analyses.

Distribution and sales of Palo Alto's products are done through its network of channel partners. Its Next Wave

Channel Partner program is focused on developing strong relationships with distributors and resellers with expertise

in the cybersecurity industry. These distributors are responsible for a large majority of revenues for Palo Alto.

NYSE: PANW I Equity Research I January 24, 2017 Analysts: Marc Costello, Jeremy Davis, Quan Nguyen, and Madison Suhr 7

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Risks

Inability to Remain Innovative

MUMA COLLEGE OF BUSINESS

STUDENT-MANAGED INVESTMENT FUND

The cyber security services industry is highly competitive. To increase its market share in this industry, Palo Alto

must remain innovative and adaptive to the current technical environment. To do this, the company must attract and

retain highly-skilled personnel. Due to the competitive nature of the IT labor market in San Francisco, where the firm

is headquartered, Palo Alto could fail to attract and retain the best talent, which could inhibit its ability to innovate

effectively.

Adverse Changes in Macroeconomic Conditions

Palo Alto's customer base is comprised of medium and large enterprises globally. Because business spending tends

to correlate with economic conditions, an economic downturn could influence its customers to spend less on cyber

security services or to seek more economic options. For this reason , any downturn in the macro economy could

negatively impact the firm.

Significant Cyber-Attack on One or More of its Customers

Palo Alto has built its reputation and brand through the efficacy associated with its product and service offerings.

Due to this truth, any significant cyber-attack or data breach concerning one or more of its customers could have a

devastating impact on the company. An event such as this would likely tarnish the company's brand and significantly

lower its growth prospects.

Change in Dynamics of Relationships with Channel Partners

Palo Alto depends on its channel partners for the sales and marketing of its products and services. In 2016, two

channel partners represented 58.2% of the company's total revenues. The company's contracts with its channel

partners are renewed on an annual basis. Continuation of these contracts can be halted by either party in advance

of an upcoming renewal. If one of these relationships is terminated at any time, it could have devastating effects on

the company. Furthermore, if Palo Alto's channel partners allot less effort to the marketing of its offerings, the

company's revenues could be negatively impacted.

NYSE: PANW I Equity Research I January 24, 2017 Analysts: Marc Costello, Jeremy Davis, Quan Nguyen, and Madison Suhr 8

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Leadership

Mark Mclaughlin CEO

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STUDENT-MANAGED INVESTMENT FUND

Mclaughlin has served as president, CEO, and as a member of Palo Alto's board of directors since 2011 . Prior to Palo Alto, Mclaughlin served as president and CEO of Verisign after serving as COO and EVP. Mclaughlin currently serves on the board of directors for Qualcomm Inc. (NASDAQ:QCOM).

Nir Zuk Chief Technology Officer

Zuk co-founded Palo Alto and has since served as its CTO. Before Palo Alto, Zuk was CTO at NetScreen Technologies, which was acquired by Juniper Networks in 2004. Prior to NetScreen, Zuk was co-founder and CTO at OneSecure. Zuk was also a principal engineer at Check Point Software Technologies.

Rene Bonvanie Chief Marketing Officer

Bonvanie has more than 25 years of executive management and marketing experience in enterprise technology. Prior to Palo Alto, Bonvanie served as EVP and CMO at Sap. Before SAP, Bonvanie served as SVP at VERITAS Software Corporation.

Steffan Tomlinson Chief Financial Officer

Tomlinson has served as Palo Alto's CFO since 2012. Prior to Palo Alto, Tomlinson served as CFO at Aruba Networks and was heavily involved in its I PO. Before Aruba Networks, Tomlinson served as the first non-founder employee at Peribit Networks and rose to become CFO.

NYSE: PANW I Equity Research I January 24, 2017 Analysts: Marc Costello, Jeremy Davis, Quan Nguyen, and Madison Suhr 9

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Free Cash Flow to Equity Valuation

Net Income J Current Asset change Accounts receivable I Other Total Asset

Current Lib change Accounts payable I Deferred revenues

Other Current Libs I r---Total Lib

I Net Working Capital Change

- I Deprication & Amor Capex I Net Capex

I Shares outstanding

Cash Flow

MUMA COLLEGE OF BUSINESS

STUDENT-MANAGED INVESTMENT FUND

2017 2018 2019 2020 273,431 321 ,671 430,432 516,402

-87,060 -114,591 -110,577 -132..!.581 -8,480 -9,328 -10,261 -11,287

-95,540 -123,919 , -120,838 -143,868

3,652 8,890 8,548 10,258 175,665 230,986 222,110 266,532

13,438 13,823 13,292 15,951

192,755 253,699 243,951 292,741

97,215 129,780 123,113 148,873

10,276 8,848 9,732 10,706 -160000 -160000 -160000 -160000 -149,724 -151 '152 -150,268 -149 ,294

95,556 99,400 99,400 99,400

Free Cash Flow to Equity Terminal Value

2017 2018 2019 2020 $ 142.31 EPS 1$ 2.86 $ 3.24 $ 4.33 1 $ 5.20 Dep & Amor $ 0.11 $ 0.09 $ 0.10 $ 0.11 Cap Ex f$ (1.67) $ (1.61) $ l1 .61)~ (1 .61) NWC $ 1.02 $ 1.31 $ 1.24 $ 1.50 FCFE $ 2.31 $ 3.02 $ 4.06 $ 5.19

- - -Discount Factor 1.08 1.16 1.24 1.34

PV -

3.26f"L_ -

$ 2.15 $ 2.61 $ 3.88 I

Intrinsic Value $ 154.21

CAPM 7.57% Beta 1.37 MRP 3 .74% Rf 2.45%

NYSE: PANW I Equity Research I January 24, 2017 Analysts: Marc Costello, Jeremy Davis, Quan Nguyen, and Madison Suhr 10

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PIE Model

Price/Earnings Mutiple Model-Constant-,-2017 2018 2019 2020

!-£BIT s 386,374 $ 456,190 $ 613,815 $ 738,409

Interest Expense

Other income (expense). net $ 9,800 s 10,000 $ 10,000 s 10,000

EST s 396,174 $ 466,190 $ 623,815 s 748,409

i-Tax Rate 30.98% 31.00% 31.00% 31.00%

Net tnco me 273,431.21 321,671.11 430,432.15 516,402.40 -

Shares Outstanding 95556 99400 99400 99400

EPS 2.86 3.24 4 .33 5.20

P/ E 60 60 60 60

Price $ 171.69 $ 194.17 $ 259.82 s 311.71

Price/Earnings Mutiple Model-Expansion--2017 2018 2019 2020 -

EBIT s 386,374 $ 4S6,190 $ 613,815 $ 738,409

Interest Expense

Other income (expense), net 5 9,800 $ 10,000 $ 10,000 $ 10,000

EST s 396,174 $ 466,190 $ 623,815 s 748,409

Tax Rate 30.98% 31.00% 31.00% 31.00% -Net Income 273,431.21 321,671.11 430,432.15 516,402.40 -

Shares Ou tstanding 95556 99400 99400 99400

EPS 2.86 3 .24 4.33 5. 20

P/E 60 65 70 75

Price $ 171.69 $ 210.35 s 303.12 $ 389.64

MUMA COLLEGE OF BUSINESS

STUDENT-MANAGED INVESTMENT FUND

Price/Earnings Mutiple Model--Contraction -2017 2018 2019 2020

EBIT $ 386,374 s 456,190 $ 613,815 s 738,409

Other inco me (expense), ne t $ 9,800 s 10,000 $ 10,000 $ 10,000

EBT $ 396,174 $ 466,190 $ 623,815 $ 748,409

Tax Rate 30.98% 31.00% 31.00% 31.00% -Net Income 273,431.21 3 21, 671.11 430,432.15 516,402.40

Shares Outstanding 9 5556 99400 99400 99400

EPS 2.86 3 .24 4 .33 5.20

P/E 60 55 47 42

Price $ 171.69 $ 177.99 $ 20 3.52 $ 218.20

We believe the earnings multiple will contract over time.

Palo Alto's earnings multiple has been between 70-95x

earnings on a non-GAAP basis over the past 12

months.

P/E Sensitivity Analysis--2020

EPS

I 4.42 4.68 4.94 5.20 5.45 5.87 5.97

I 36 $ 158.97 $ 168.32 $ 177.68 $ 187.03 $ 196.38 $ 211.34 $ 215.08

38 $ 167.80 $ 177.68 $ 187.55 $ 197.42 $ 207.29 $ 223.08 $ 227.03 -40 $ 176.64 $ 187.03 $ 197.42 $ 207.81 $ 218.20 $ 234.82 $ 238.98 -42 $ 185.47 $ 196.38 $ 207.29 $ 218.20 $ 229.11 $ 246.56 $ 250.93 -

P/E Mutiple 44 $ 194.30 $ 205.73 $ 217.16 $ 228.59 $ 240.02 $ 258.31 $ 262.88 -46 $ 203.13 $ 215.08 $ 227.03 $ 238.98 $ 250.93 s 270.05 s 274.83

48 $ 211.96 $ 224.43 $ 236.90 $ 249.37 $ 261.84 $ 281.79 $ 286.77

Expected Return Bear Base Bu ll Annualized Return 8.57% 11.32% 14.00%

NYSE: PANW I Equity Research I January 24, 2017 Analysts: Marc Costello, Jeremy Davis, Quan Nguyen, and Madison Suhr 11

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Income Statement

Income Statement (Non-GAAP) Q1 2017 Q2 2017 (Est) Q3 2017 (Est) Q4 2017 (Est )

MUMA COLLEGE OF BUSINESS

STUDENT-MANAGED INVESTMENT FUND

FY'17 FY '18 FY'19 FY'20

Revenue (Product) __ 163,800.00 184,470.00 ,..........!.90,047.00 205,25_0_.7_6 ___ 743,567.76 __ 803,053.18 __ 953,974.90 1,079,354.46

Revenue {Service) _ _ _ _ =.:23c..:4.c:,3..:..00:.:.. 0=.:0:.___2:.44c..c,c::.5.:.30:..:..0:..:0:._____:2:..:6..:::8,:.::..98:..:3:.::...0:..:0 _ ___:3:..:.0"-'7,.:.56:..:1::..:. 7-'4- 1,055,37 4. 7 4 1,468,315.63 1, 771,667.67 2, 191,416.63 1

Total revenue 398,100.00 429,000.00 459,030.00 512,812.50 1,798,942.50 2,271,368.81 2,725,642.57 3,270,771.09

Cost of Revenue (Product) 37,300.00 42,428.10 43,710.81 47,207.67 170,646.58 209,278.40 230,861.93 261,203.78

Cost of Revenue {Service) 44,600.00 51,351.30 56,486.43 64,587.97 217,025.70 368,400.39 379,136.88 468,963.16

Total Cost of Revenue 81,900.00 93,779.40 100,197.24 111,795.64 387,672.28 577,678.79 609,998.81 730,166.94

Total Gross Profit 316,200.00 335,220.60 358,832.76 401,016.86 1,411,270.22 1,693,690.02 2,115,643.77 2,540,604.15

[~R_es_e_ar_ch_&_D_ev_e_lo~p_m_en_t __ ~_4_5~,4_o_o._oo~l __ 4_7~,9_o_o._oo~l __ s_o~,4_oo_._oo~ __ 5_2~,9_oo_.o_o ,~ __ 19_6~,6_oo_.o_o~l _2_3_~~ro_o_.o_o~!~_2_8~6,~1_92_.4_7 __ 3_4~3,_43_o_.9~6 1 Sales & Marketing 175,300.00 177,595.00 177,062.00 196,339.00 726,296.00 878,500.00 ~068,_4_51_.89 1,282,142.27

I General & Administrative I Expenses 23,700.00 24,900.00 26,100.00 27,300.00 102,000.00 122,400.00 147,184.70 176,621.64

Legal settlement

jTotal Operating Expenses

Operating Income (loss)

Interest Income

Interest Expense

Other Income (expense), net Income (loss) Before Income

Taxes

I Provision (benefit) for Income

Taxes Net Income (loss)

Net income (loss) attributable to

common stockholders

Weighted average sha res

outstanding-diluted Net ea rni ngs (loss) per share ­

Diluted

Growth Rates

Product Revenue

Service Revenue

Total Revenues

244,400.00 250,395.00 253,562.00

71,800.00 84,825.60 105,270.76

2,300.00 2,500.00 2,500.00

74,100.00 87,325.60 107,770.76

22,900.00 27,070.94 33,408.94

51,200.00 60,254.66 74,361.82

93,200.00 94,753.10 96,332.08

0.55 0.64 0.77

Quarter-Over-Quarter (Relative to FY '16)

10.90%

56.72%

33.95%

8.58%

48.38%

28.17%

17.24%

46.43%

32.74%

276,539.00

124,477.86

2,500.00

126,977.86

39,363.14

87,614.72

97,937.37

0.89

7.40%

46.67%

27.95%

1,024,896.00

386,374.22

9,800.00

396,174.22

122,743.01

273,431.21

95,555.64

2.85

Year·Over-Year

10.85%

49.13%

30.500...6

1,237,500.00 1,501,829.06

456,190.02 613,814.71

10,000.00

466,190.02

144,518.91

321,671.11

99,400.00

3.24

8.00%

39.13%

26.26%

10,000.00

623,814.71

193,382.56

430,432.15

99,400.00

4.33

18.79%

20.66%

20.00%

1,802,194.87

738,409.28

99,400.00

5.20

13.14%

23.69%

20.00%

NYSE: PANW I Equity Research I January 24, 2017 Analysts: Marc Costello, Jeremy Davis, Quan Nguyen, and Madison Suhr 12

Page 13: STUDENT-MANAGED INVESTMENT FUND 1 Implied Return: 44% ... · -o.Z5 Investment Thesis ... The market is expected to grow from $75 billion in 2016 to 175 ... its product segment have

Balance Sheet

- --=r Balance Sheet FY '15

~h & cash equivalents 375,814.00

Short-term investments =-oJ 413,165.00

Accounts receivable, gross 213,089.00

l Less: allowance for doubtful

723.oo I accounts

Accounts receivable, net 212,366.00

Prepaid expenses & other current

assets 72,685.00 Total current assets 1,074,030.00

Computers, equipment, & software 62,599.00

Leasehold improvements 25,461.00

Demonstration units I 15,971.00

Furniture & fixtures 6,631.00

Total property & equipment, gross f 110,662.00 l Less: accumulated depreciation 47,784.00

Property & equipment, net 62,878.00 Long-term investments 538,841.00

Goodwill I 163,522.00 Intangible assets, net 52,656.00 Other assets I 73,25l.oo I Total assets 1,965,178.00

Accounts payable 13,204.00

Accrued compensation 79,795.00 -Accrued & other liabilities _J 28,291.00

Deferred revenue 423,853.00

Convertible senior notes, net I 487,084.oo I Total current liabilities 1032227 Convertible senior notes, net I -, Long-term deferred revenue 289801

Other long-term liabilities I 673351 Temporary equity 87916

Common stock & additional paid-in

capital 988,695.00

Accumulated other comprehensive

income (loss) -88

I Retained earnings (accumulated

deficit) -500708

Total stockholders' equity (deficit) 487899 -

NYSE: PANW I Equity Research I January 24, 2017

FY'16 FY'17

734,400.00 912,507.80

551,200.00 608,338.54

351,100.00 440,026.31

2,4oo.oo I 4,266.16

348,700.00 435,760.15

84,800.00 93,280.00 1,719,100.00 2,049,886.49

102,700.00 112,970.00 58,000.00 63,800.00 20,100.00 22,110.00 14,600.00 16,060.00

195,400.00 l 214,940.00

78,200.00 88,475.54

117,200.00 126,464.46

652,800.00 731,136.00

163,500.00 i 163,500.00 44,000.00 44,000.00 64,6oo.oo 1 61,370.00

2,761,200.00 3,176,356.95

30,200.00 33,851.96 73,500.00 73,500.00

39,200.00 52,638.06

703,900.00 879,565.17

- - -846800 1,039,555.19

508200 508,200.00

536900 644,766.54

79400 79,400.00 -- - -

1515500 1,591,275.00

1000 1,000.00 -

-7266001 (687,839. 79)

789900 904,435.21

MUMA COLLEGE OF BUSINESS

STUDENT-MANAGED INVESTMENT FUND

FY'18 FY'19 FY'ZO

1,140,960.07 1,356,727.52 1,601,998.07

760,640.05 904,485.02 1,067,998. 71

555,583.09 666,699.71 800,039.66

5,231.96 5,771.55 6,530.09

550,351.13 660,928.17 793,509.56

102,608.00 112,868.80 124,155.68 2,554,559.26 3,035,009.51 3,587,662.03

124,267.00 136,693.70 150,363.07

70,180.00 77,198.00 84,917.80

24,321.00 26,753.10 29,428.41

17,666.00 19,432.60 21,375.86

236,434.00 260,077.40 286,085.14

97,323.09 107,055.40 117,760.94

139,110.91 153,022.00 168,324.20

818,872.32 917,137.00 1,027,193.44

163,500.00 163,500.00 163,500.00 44,000.00 44,000.00 44,000.00 58,301.50 55,386.43 1 52,617.10

3,778,343.98 4,368,054.93 5,043,296. 76

42,741.93 51,290.32 61,548.38

73,500.00 73,500.00 73,500.00

66,461.52 79,753.82 95,704.59

1,110,550.72 1,332,660.87 1,599,193.04

- -1,293,254.18 1,537,205.01 1,829,946.01

508,200.00 508,200.00 508,200.00

814,090.85 976,909.01 1,172,290.82

79,400.00 79,400.00 79,400.00

- -

1,670,838.75 1,754,380.69 1,842,099.72

1,000.00 1,000.00 1,000.00

(588,439. 79) (489,039.79) (389,639. 79)

1,083,398.96 1,266,340.90 1,453,459.93

Analysts: Marc Costello, Jeremy Davis, Quan Nguyen, and Madison Suhr 13