structure of the presentation 1.current state of foresight/strategic intelligence 2.unusual case 1...
TRANSCRIPT
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Australian Centre for Innovation & International Competitiveness
Professor Ron JohnstonProfessor Ron Johnston
Australian Centre for InnovationAustralian Centre for Innovation
University of SydneyUniversity of Sydneywww.aciic.org.auwww.aciic.org.au
DGDG--JRCJRC--IPTS IPTS SevillaSevilla
7 October 20087 October 2008
The Role of Foresight in Structural and The Role of Foresight in Structural and Thematic PriorityThematic Priority--Setting: Setting: two cases from Australiatwo cases from Australia
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Structure of the Presentation
1. Current state of foresight/strategic intelligence
2. Unusual Case 1 – structural priority-setting
3. Unusual Case 2 – thematic priority setting
4. The role for quantification5. Conclusions
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Current state of foresight/strategic intelligence
A climate of urgency to address the future Increased adoption at many levels and in
many forms Varied roles:
an expert-based policy informing tool; an integral part of policy processes, operating by
forward looking strategic support to informing and co-ordinating functions;
a pacemaker through capacity building for policy intelligence
a tool for impact assessment.
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Structural priority-setting in the Australian Innovation Review
http://www.innovation.gov.au/innovationreview
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The Review’s Perspective on Innovation
Innovation is commonly described as “creating value by doing things differently”. From this viewpoint we can only identify innovation after the event.
If we are going to influence innovation outcomes we need an active appreciation of the dynamic processes associated with innovation that lead to change. Thus the focus should be on innovating and being innovative.
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The Context of the Review
- change of Government after 11 years- a series of reviews of education, universities,
industrial relations, the federal system of government, the tax system, emissions trading, the auto and TCF industries, and the CRC program
- declining investment and performance, particularly in the past 5 years:
A decline by 25% of Govt funding for R&I as % of GDP
Investment in education declined as a % of GDP while other OECD countries were massively increasing theirs
Zero increase in multi-factor productivity
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A Systems Approach
The Review takes a systems approach to understanding Australia’s innovation performance and challenges. This means treating all the elements of the innovation system as a dynamic and interconnected whole, not just concentrating on single components.
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Issues for Submissions
Can we imagine a better world? Are we asking the right questions?
How do we solve the big challenges we face?
Could we do everyday things better? How do we make it easier for people
to apply ideas in novel ways? How do we educate our people to be
more creative?
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The Strategic Intelligence Component
Not a formal foresight process Extraction of views of a desired future
contained in >700 submissions Interpreted through the experiences
and a strong vision of the Committee of Review
Projection of a series of structural targets
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Structural targets (quantitative)
Total factor productivity growth >2.5%pa >40% of employees with tertiary education 50% of firms produce new-to-market
innovations pa 70% of firms produce non-tech innovation pa Firm collaboration with PROs >50% Firm collaboration with HEIs >30%
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Thematic priority-setting via the CSIRO Flagship Program
http://www.csiro.au/partnerships/NRF.html
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National Research Flagships the largest scientific research programs ever undertaken in
Australia – with total investment to 2010–11 of more than $1.5 billion
Flagships recognise that complex large-scale challenges require sophisticated cross-boundary responses that can only be delivered by bringing together the best and the brightest from across the Australian innovation system
Focused on major national priorities
Focused on outcomes. committed to delivering research solutions that target clearly defined goals
They have a larger scale, longer timeframes and stronger focus on adoption of research outputs than other programs
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Nine Flagships Energy Water Health Light metals Oceans Food Climate adaptation Minerals Niche manufacturing (nanotechnology)
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Energy Transformed Flagship
Goals: To halve greenhouse gas emissions double the efficiency of the nation’s
new energy generation, supply and end use
position Australia for a future hydrogen economy
by 2050
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Some Activities SolarGas™- a new energy source which contains 25%
more energy than the natural gas used to feed the process
Post Combustion Carbon Capture Enhanced Coal Bed Methane extraction The Ultra Battery Responsive intelligent distributed energy network Distributed generation CO2 sequestration in coal CO2 behaviour in deep saline aquifers
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The Crucial Steering Mechanism - The Energy Futures Forum
The Energy Futures Forum brings together Australia’s energy and transport stakeholders to identify plausible scenarios for energy in 2050 and their implications for the nation’s energy future.
Stakeholders included energy suppliers, generators, distributors, major energy end-users, financiers, government and community representatives.
Eight scenarios were developed from a base case with variants incorporating nuclear, renewable energy, distributed energy and ‘deep greenhouse gas cut’ scenarios.
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The Role for Quantification in Foresight – important qualifiers Quantification does not provide
greater truth or precision unless the supporting theories and models adequately reflect underlying structures and relationships
Processes (like foresight) are largely defined in qualitative terms eg management, strategy, but can be supported by metrics
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Some Quantitative Approaches being used in Foresight
Process and decision-models embedded in software eg scenario generation
Simulation tools Complex adaptive systems modelling Cross-impact analysis Gaming Data mining Impact evaluation
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Conclusions Foresight/strategic intelligence
processes, tools and applications are multiplying
Practice is far in advance of an adequate theoretical conception
There is need for both radical and incremental development of both qualitative and quantitative approaches