structure - european commission · structure! the drivers of fertility ! four drivers and some...
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Structure ¢ The drivers of fertility ¢ Four drivers and some evidence:
l Ideals, intentions and footprints l Cultural change and partnership
dynamics l Economic development, cycle and
gender l Policies
¢ Interactions and new drivers ¢ References 1
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Drivers of fertility ¢ The drivers of fertility (Balbo, Billari &
Mills, 2013, European Journal of Population)
¢ Note: not only causal evidence ¢ Quantum and tempo 1. Micro level 2. Meso level 3. Macro level 2
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Ideals, intentions and footprints
¢ OECD (e.g., 2011): “effectiveness of policy in reducing the gap between intended and achieved fertility”
¢ In surveys (Eurobarometer, European Social Survey, Generations and Gender Survey): fertility intentions or fertility ideals
¢ Recent focus: time-framed fertility intentions
¢ Even more recent: digital footprints 3
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GGS Table 1. Instruments used in the Generations and Gender Surveys to elicit intentions and behavior
Event Question intention
Eligible sample (Wave 1)
Possible answer Realization of intention (Wave 2)
Birth of first child
Do you intend to have a child during the next three years ?
Respondents between 18 and 45 years, in a heterosexual relationship/ever in a relationship/sexual active who are physically possible to have a child and if applicable, whose partner is able to have children
1 – definitely not 2 – probably not 3 – probably yes 4 – definitely yes
Had a first child
Source: Billari, Hiekel & Liefbroer (R & R) 4
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GGS
Source: Billari, Hiekel & Liefbroer (R & R) 5
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ESS
6 Source: Harknett & Sten Hartnett, Population Studies (2014)
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ESS
Source: Harknett & Sten Hartnett, Population Studies (2014) 7
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Source: Billari, D’Amuri, Marcucci, PAA (2013)
Google search
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Google search
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Source: Ojala, Zagheni, Billari & Weber, ICWSM17, (2017)
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Source: Ojala, Zagheni, Billari & Weber, ICWSM17, (2017)
Google search
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Cultural change and partnership dynamics ¢ Cultural change (Second Demographic
Transition) has brought a greater disconnection between marriage and fertility
¢ 43% of EU births outside marriage in 2016
¢ Higher-order partnering as a potential ‘fuel’ of fertility
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15 Source: Thompson et al., Demography (2014)
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Economic development, cycle and gender ¢ Previous ideas on the relationship
between the economy and economic cycle and fertility l negative relationship between
development and fertility (demographic transition theory)
l emphasis on women’s opportunity cost of childbearing and childrearing (Becker)
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Economic development, cycle and gender ¢ Now, theory and evidence
l relationship between development and fertility turns positive at high levels of development (Europe)
l Gender revolution, dual breadwinner models. Emergence of positive correlation between female labour force participation and fertility, and clearly pro-cyclical fertility
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Total Fertility Rate and Human Development Index
Source: Myrskylä, Kohler, Billari, Nature (2009)
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Total Fertility Rate and Human Development Index (2013)
NO
AU
CH
NL
US
DE
NZ
CA
DK
IE
SWICUK
FR
AT
BE
LU
FI
SI
IT
ES
CZ
GR
CYEE
LT
PL
SK
MT
PO
HU
CR
LV
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2
.8 .85 .9 .95HDI2013
TFR2013 Fitted values
Sources: Human Fertility Database and UNDP
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Source: Matisiak et al. (2018)
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Policies ¢ (Clean) evidence on policy effects is not
abundant ¢ Issue: becoming a parent vs. having a
child ¢ Consistency with:
l Fertility plans/desires l Cultural change (e.g. emphasis on
marriage) l Evidence on the role of income l Gender revolution
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Policies ¢ Positive effects of
l cash transfers (specially after the year of childbirth)
l childcare provision (positive spillover on female labour force participation)
l small/ambiguous effect of parental leave
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Policies
24 Source: Luci-Greulich & Théveneon, European Journal of Population (2013)
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Policies
25 Source: Aksoy & Billari, American Journal of Sociology (2013)
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Interactions and new drivers ¢ Drivers interact:
l Policies may differ in their effect across societies/culture
l Culture may shape the effect of economic change and the gender revolution
l Role of technological change (e.g. digitalization of the economy and of everyday life)
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Interactions and new drivers
27 Source: Aassve et al., Social Forces (2016)
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Interactions and new drivers
28 Source: Billari et al., IZA WP (2017)
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Interactions and new drivers ¢ Will there be a counter-modern backlash
(e.g. in culture and policies) and what would that be the impact on fertility?
¢ Role of nowcasting in detecting changes in trends/discontinuities
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References ¢ Aassve, A., Billari, F. C., & Pessin, L. (2016). Trust and Fertility
Dynamics. Social Forces, 95(2), 663-692. ¢ Aksoy, O., & Billari, F. C. (2018). Political Islam, Marriage, and Fertility:
Evidence from a Natural Experiment. American Journal of Sociology, 123(5), 1296-1340.
¢ Balbo, N., Billari, F. C., & Mills, M. (2013). Fertility in Advanced Societies: A Review of Research. European Journal of Population, 29(1), 1-38.
¢ Billari, F. C., D'Amuri, F., & Marcucci, J. (2013). Forecasting Births Using Google. Paper presented at the Population Association of America Annual Conference, New Orleans, LA.
¢ Billari, F. C., Giuntella, O., & Stella, L. (2017). Does Broadband Internet Affect Fertility?, IZA DP 10935.
¢ Billari, F. C., Hiekel, N., & Liebroer, A.C. (2018). The Social Stratification of Choice in the Transition to Adulthood
¢ Harknett, K., & Hartnett, C. S. (2014). The gap between births intended and births achieved in 22 European countries, 2004–07. Population Studies, 68(3), 265-282.
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References ¢ Luci-Greulich, A., & Thévenon, O. (2013). The Impact of Family Policies
on Fertility Trends in Developed Countries. European Journal of Population, 29(4), 387-416.
¢ Matysiak, A., Sobotka, T., & Vignoli, D. (2018). The Great Recession and Fertility in Europe: A Sub-National Analysis. Vienna Institute of Demography Working Papers, 2, 2018.
¢ Myrskylä, M., Kohler, H.-P., & Billari, F. C. (2009). Advances in development reverse fertility declines. Nature, 460(7256), 741-743.
¢ Ojala, J., Zagheni, E., Billari, F. C., & Weber, I. (2017). Fertility and Its Meaning: Evidence from Search Behavior. Paper presented at the International AAAI Conference on Web and Social Media; Eleventh International AAAI Conference on Web and Social Media.
¢ Thomson, E., Lappegård, T., Carlson, M., Evans, A., & Gray, E. (2014). Childbearing Across Partnerships in Australia, the United States, Norway, and Sweden. Demography, 51(2), 485-508.
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@fcbillari
This project has received funding from the European Research Council (ERC) under the European Union's Horizon 2020 research
and innovaAon programme (grant agreement n° 694262), project DisCont -‐ Discon+nui+es in Household and
Family Forma+on