structural transformation and manufacturing opportunities nobuya haraguchi 20 february 2015 1
TRANSCRIPT
Structural Transformation and Manufacturing Opportunities
Nobuya Haraguchi20 February 2015
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Outline
• Structural change and role of manufacturing in the economy
• Structural change within manufacturing and opportunities for low and high income countries
• Global production network
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Rodrik, 2014 Ghani and O’Connell, 2014
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5
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(86 countries)
Source: UNIDO
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Developing countries have had higher growth in manufacturing than in GDP for 31 years out of 43 years.
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Value added share
Source: UNIDO
10
Value added share
Source: UNIDO
11
Value added share
Source: UNIDO
Low income countries
12
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Patterns of Manufacturing Development
Source: UNIDO
Source: UNIDO
Change in value added per capita by income, low- and lower-middle incomes
Food and beverage
Textiles
Chemical
Electrical machinery and apparatus
Motor vehicles
Fabricated metals
Basic metals
Wearing apparel
Rubber and plastics
Machinery and equipment
Employment
Source: Estimated based on UNIDO INDSTAT2
Food and tobacco
Textiles and leather
Energy intensity of Manufacturing Industries
Ton
ns
of
oil
equ
ival
ent
/ US
$ 1,
000
MV
A
Metals
Non-metallic minerals
Textiles Wearing Apparel Coke and Petro
Machinery and Equip. Electrical Mach. and Equip. Motor Vehicles.
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Wearing apparel
Changes in value added and labour productivity
Textiles
$9,000$18,000
$10,000$14,500
$13,000 $17,000
Basic metals Electrical Machinery and Apparatus
$35,000
Changes in value added and labour productivity
High income countries
20
Start growing slower than the economy-wide average
(Large countries)
Source: UNIDO
Food and beverage
Textiles
Chemical
Electrical machinery and apparatus
Motor vehicles
Fabricated metals
Basic metals
Wearing apparel
Rubber and plastics
Machinery and equipment
Employment
Source: Estimated based on UNIDO INDSTAT2
Source: Own elaboration based on WIOD
Source: Own elaboration based on WIOD
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Source: Own elaboration based on WIOD
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1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 20090
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
Other Services
Business Services
Transport
Wholesale
Manufacturing
Manufacturing-related employment in Germany(in 1,000)
Source: Own elaboration based on WIOD
N.A.91%
W.E.91%
E.A.88%
Final outputsTextiles and Wearing Apparel,
1990
Total of the three regions72%
+S. America and S.E. Asia84%
2.5%1.9%
3.6%
4.1%3.4%
2.0%
90%
81%
E.A.86%
W.E.83%
N.A.84%
Total of the three regions68%
+S. America and S.E. Asia86%
Final outputsTextiles and Wearing Apparel,
2011
81%
88%
4.4%5.4%
2.1%
4.8%
2.2%
4.6%
E.A.90%
Total of the three regions84%
Final outputsElectrical and Machinery,
1990
N.A.91%
W.E.91%
3.3%3.9%
2.9%
2.9%
3.9%
3.2%
E.A.83%
Total of the three regions80%
Final outputsElectrical and Machinery, 2011
N.A.84%
W.E.85%
5.8%5.4%
3.2%
5.1%
3.2%
5.8%
Total of the three regions68%
+ S.E. Asia 78%
Value AddedTextiles and Wearing Apparel,
2011
73%
70%
51%
79%
92%
77%
14%
11%
28%
90%83%
79%
Total of the three regions77%
Value AddedElectrical and machinery, 2011
N.A.93%
W.E.80%
E.A.77%
72%
67%
57%
77%
85%
69%11%
14%
17%
25%
88%84%
81%
Total of the three regions81%
Value AddedTransport equipment, 2011
N.A.93%
W.E.80%
E.A.77%
38%
64%
69%
72%
80%
64%
11%
10%
39%
10%
13%
16%
10%74%
93%
80%
11%
1990 2011Italy
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
14% 20%3%
9%
79%67%
1990 2011Spain
17% 19%
3%8%
77%68%
1990 2011South Korea
7% 8%5% 5%
12%22%1%
2%
73%62%
1990 2011Mexico
6% 9%17% 16%3%
9%
73%62%
Mexico
Oceania
Asia
Africa
NAFTA
EUROPE
1990 2011China
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
3% 4%4% 7%
90% 86%
1990 2011India
2%6%
94%86%
1990 2011Bangladesh
5% 9%
92% 88%
1990 2011Indonesia
6% 4%
10% 11%
77% 80%
Textiles and wearing apparel
Electrical and machinery
1990 2011Germany
11% 16%3%
7%
83%73%
1990 2011France
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
18% 19%
4% 7%
75% 70%
1990 2011South Korea
9% 10%7% 6%
18%29%
66%53%
1990 2011Singapore
20% 16%
15%9%
39% 49%
24% 23% Singapore
Oceania
Africa
Central, South America and the Caribbean
NAFTA
EUROPE
1990 2011Japan
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
2% 7%
91% 85%
1990 2011USA
4% 6%3%
7%
91%82%
1990 2011China
4% 8%5%
12%
88%74%
1990 2011Germany
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
18% 25%
3%7%
75%63%
1990 2011Italy
19% 27%2%
3%2%
7%
75%62%
1990 2011South Korea
8% 10%6% 5%
13%19%
72% 64%
1990 2011Mexico
6% 9%
19% 17%4% 9%
70% 62%
Mexico
Oceania
Asia
Africa
NAFTA
EUROPE
1990 2011Japan
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
2% 7%
91% 86%
1990 2011China
3% 7%4%8%
91%79%
1990 2011India
4% 9%2%8%
92%79%
1990 2011USA
6% 7%3% 5%4%9%
86%76%
Transport equipment