strong towns presentation for communitymatters in newport vermont
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: Strong Towns Presentation for CommunityMatters in Newport Vermont](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022052901/5567f2f5d8b42aaf768b4b6e/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
The mission of Strong Towns is to support a model for growth that allows America's towns
to become financially strong and resilient.
![Page 2: Strong Towns Presentation for CommunityMatters in Newport Vermont](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022052901/5567f2f5d8b42aaf768b4b6e/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
• Why are our cities and towns so short of resources despite decades of robust growth?
• Why do we struggle at the local level just to maintain our basic infrastructure?
• What do we do now that the economy has changed so dramatically?
3 Questions
![Page 3: Strong Towns Presentation for CommunityMatters in Newport Vermont](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022052901/5567f2f5d8b42aaf768b4b6e/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
BIG Concepts
1. The current path cities are are on is not financially stable.
2. The future for most cities is not going to resemble the recent past.
3. The main determinant of future prosperity for cities will be the ability of local leaders to transform their communities.
![Page 4: Strong Towns Presentation for CommunityMatters in Newport Vermont](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022052901/5567f2f5d8b42aaf768b4b6e/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Even if it market returns, we can’t grow our way out of it
Macro Trends - Housing
![Page 5: Strong Towns Presentation for CommunityMatters in Newport Vermont](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022052901/5567f2f5d8b42aaf768b4b6e/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Macro Trends - Housing
![Page 6: Strong Towns Presentation for CommunityMatters in Newport Vermont](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022052901/5567f2f5d8b42aaf768b4b6e/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Macro Trends - Housing
![Page 7: Strong Towns Presentation for CommunityMatters in Newport Vermont](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022052901/5567f2f5d8b42aaf768b4b6e/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Commercial Real Estate
![Page 8: Strong Towns Presentation for CommunityMatters in Newport Vermont](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022052901/5567f2f5d8b42aaf768b4b6e/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Commercial Real Estate
Retail: A glut of excess space • Between 1990 and 2005,
consumer spending per capita rose 14% (inflation adjusted), yet retail space per capita rose 100%.
• We have six times the retail space per capita of any European country.
• Vacant retail space is up 42% since 2006.
Source: Redfields to Greenfields
![Page 9: Strong Towns Presentation for CommunityMatters in Newport Vermont](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022052901/5567f2f5d8b42aaf768b4b6e/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
4 Mechanisms of Growth
Can we grow our way out of this?
The “Mechanisms of Growth” we have used during the modern era:
1. Government Transfer Payments
2. Federal/State Transportation Spending
3. Debt, both private and public
4. The Growth Ponzi Scheme
![Page 10: Strong Towns Presentation for CommunityMatters in Newport Vermont](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022052901/5567f2f5d8b42aaf768b4b6e/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
1. Gov’t Transfer Payments
![Page 11: Strong Towns Presentation for CommunityMatters in Newport Vermont](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022052901/5567f2f5d8b42aaf768b4b6e/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
2. Federal Transportation Spending
![Page 12: Strong Towns Presentation for CommunityMatters in Newport Vermont](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022052901/5567f2f5d8b42aaf768b4b6e/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Mn/DOT Statewide Transportation Plan
August 2009
• $65 billion in projected needs
• $15 billion in projected revenue
• $50 billion 20-year shortfall ($2.5 billion/year)
*Shortfall equates to an $0.83/gal gas tax increase
2. State Transportation Spending
![Page 13: Strong Towns Presentation for CommunityMatters in Newport Vermont](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022052901/5567f2f5d8b42aaf768b4b6e/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
3. Private & Public Sector Debt
![Page 14: Strong Towns Presentation for CommunityMatters in Newport Vermont](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022052901/5567f2f5d8b42aaf768b4b6e/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
4. Growth Ponzi Scheme
Revenue from new development…..
…is used to pay for existing liabilities.
The “pain free” solution … New Growth
![Page 15: Strong Towns Presentation for CommunityMatters in Newport Vermont](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022052901/5567f2f5d8b42aaf768b4b6e/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
4. Growth Ponzi Scheme Investment in the community….
…creates new growth…
…which increases property tax revenue.
Strong Incentives • Initial cost to the public for new growth: minimal
• Benefit to the public budget for new growth: substantial
The catch is that the public agrees to maintain the improvement forever.
![Page 16: Strong Towns Presentation for CommunityMatters in Newport Vermont](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022052901/5567f2f5d8b42aaf768b4b6e/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
4. Growth Ponzi Scheme
The critical assumptions to this strategy:
1. Either growth continues at ever accelerating rates, or
2. The pattern of development ultimately generates more revenue than it costs to maintain.
![Page 17: Strong Towns Presentation for CommunityMatters in Newport Vermont](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022052901/5567f2f5d8b42aaf768b4b6e/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
4. Growth Ponzi Scheme
$(100,000)
$(80,000)
$(60,000)
$(40,000)
$(20,000)
$-
$20,000
$40,000
$60,000
$80,000
$100,000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Cumulative Cash Flow - One Life Cycle
![Page 18: Strong Towns Presentation for CommunityMatters in Newport Vermont](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022052901/5567f2f5d8b42aaf768b4b6e/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Afton Hills Road Rehabilitation
Road Maintenance Project
• $354,000 total cost
• 79 years to recoup public expense from tax base • To break even requires a 46% increase in property tax rates
![Page 19: Strong Towns Presentation for CommunityMatters in Newport Vermont](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022052901/5567f2f5d8b42aaf768b4b6e/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
North Sleuter Road Project
Road Improvement Project • Costs to be 100% assessed (no public cost) • Long-term maintenance paid by the public • $154,000 estimated long-term maintenance cost • $79,000 estimated long-term revenue from served properties • To break even requires a 25% increase in property tax rates
![Page 20: Strong Towns Presentation for CommunityMatters in Newport Vermont](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022052901/5567f2f5d8b42aaf768b4b6e/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
Industrial Park Investment
Sewer and Water Extension • $1.9 million total cost • 25 lots served • $76,640 per lot • $8 million of new commercial/industrial development needed immediately to break even
![Page 21: Strong Towns Presentation for CommunityMatters in Newport Vermont](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022052901/5567f2f5d8b42aaf768b4b6e/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
Backus Wastewater System
Sewer Rehab Project
• $3.3 million total cost
• $26,830 per Backus family • Median household income: $26,875
![Page 22: Strong Towns Presentation for CommunityMatters in Newport Vermont](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022052901/5567f2f5d8b42aaf768b4b6e/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
Tower Historic Harbor
Harbor Rehabilitation Project • $9 million dredging and infrastructure project • $4.2 million additional for infrastructure rehab • Total investment of $45,000 per family • Payoff in 71 years – if all $32 million in new development happens immediately
![Page 23: Strong Towns Presentation for CommunityMatters in Newport Vermont](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022052901/5567f2f5d8b42aaf768b4b6e/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
Bemidji Convention Center
Convention Center & Hockey Rink • $75 million clean-up, & infrastructure (State, TIF, local sales tax & debt) • Total investment of $5,500 per family • After 2 years of missed projections, bailed out by local businesses
![Page 24: Strong Towns Presentation for CommunityMatters in Newport Vermont](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022052901/5567f2f5d8b42aaf768b4b6e/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
![Page 25: Strong Towns Presentation for CommunityMatters in Newport Vermont](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022052901/5567f2f5d8b42aaf768b4b6e/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
![Page 26: Strong Towns Presentation for CommunityMatters in Newport Vermont](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022052901/5567f2f5d8b42aaf768b4b6e/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
![Page 27: Strong Towns Presentation for CommunityMatters in Newport Vermont](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022052901/5567f2f5d8b42aaf768b4b6e/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
![Page 28: Strong Towns Presentation for CommunityMatters in Newport Vermont](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022052901/5567f2f5d8b42aaf768b4b6e/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
Elk Run @ Pine Island
Bio Business Park in a Small Town • $34 million for DDI intersection to development • $600k local infrastructure in the ground • Total investment of $11,500 per family • Payoff in 12 years – if they dropped everything & dedicated to infrastructure
![Page 29: Strong Towns Presentation for CommunityMatters in Newport Vermont](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022052901/5567f2f5d8b42aaf768b4b6e/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
![Page 30: Strong Towns Presentation for CommunityMatters in Newport Vermont](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022052901/5567f2f5d8b42aaf768b4b6e/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
![Page 31: Strong Towns Presentation for CommunityMatters in Newport Vermont](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022052901/5567f2f5d8b42aaf768b4b6e/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
Implications
Serious implications for the future
• The “Mechanisms of Growth” we have become accustomed to are waning.
• Local governments are going to be forced to absorb the local costs of the current development pattern.
• This can’t be done in the current pattern of development without large tax increases and/or large cuts in service.
![Page 32: Strong Towns Presentation for CommunityMatters in Newport Vermont](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022052901/5567f2f5d8b42aaf768b4b6e/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
Future Risks and Volatility
Fuel Prices Interest Rates
Currency Fluctuation Black Swan Event
![Page 33: Strong Towns Presentation for CommunityMatters in Newport Vermont](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022052901/5567f2f5d8b42aaf768b4b6e/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
Dead Ideas
• We can continue the current development pattern and not care about the Return on Investment (ROI).
$(100,000)
$(80,000)
$(60,000)
$(40,000)
$(20,000)
$-
$20,000
$40,000
$60,000
$80,000
$100,000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Cumulative Cash Flow - One Life Cycle
![Page 34: Strong Towns Presentation for CommunityMatters in Newport Vermont](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022052901/5567f2f5d8b42aaf768b4b6e/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
Dead Ideas
• Our local financial problems can be solved by bringing in more growth.
![Page 35: Strong Towns Presentation for CommunityMatters in Newport Vermont](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022052901/5567f2f5d8b42aaf768b4b6e/html5/thumbnails/35.jpg)
Dead Ideas
• A large employer, particularly a manufacturer, will solve our financial problems.
![Page 36: Strong Towns Presentation for CommunityMatters in Newport Vermont](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022052901/5567f2f5d8b42aaf768b4b6e/html5/thumbnails/36.jpg)
Dead Ideas
• Property owners have a right to develop their property and the public then has an obligation to maintain the infrastructure.
![Page 37: Strong Towns Presentation for CommunityMatters in Newport Vermont](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022052901/5567f2f5d8b42aaf768b4b6e/html5/thumbnails/37.jpg)
What does a resilient community look like?
![Page 38: Strong Towns Presentation for CommunityMatters in Newport Vermont](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022052901/5567f2f5d8b42aaf768b4b6e/html5/thumbnails/38.jpg)
The New Economy
• 1950’s – 1980’s: Emphasis on growth through savings and investment.
• 1980’s – 2010: Emphasis on growth through debt accumulation.
• New Economy: Emphasis on building resiliency.
![Page 39: Strong Towns Presentation for CommunityMatters in Newport Vermont](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022052901/5567f2f5d8b42aaf768b4b6e/html5/thumbnails/39.jpg)
STEP 1:
Building an environment that captures a positive ROI
![Page 40: Strong Towns Presentation for CommunityMatters in Newport Vermont](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022052901/5567f2f5d8b42aaf768b4b6e/html5/thumbnails/40.jpg)
![Page 41: Strong Towns Presentation for CommunityMatters in Newport Vermont](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022052901/5567f2f5d8b42aaf768b4b6e/html5/thumbnails/41.jpg)
![Page 42: Strong Towns Presentation for CommunityMatters in Newport Vermont](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022052901/5567f2f5d8b42aaf768b4b6e/html5/thumbnails/42.jpg)
![Page 43: Strong Towns Presentation for CommunityMatters in Newport Vermont](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022052901/5567f2f5d8b42aaf768b4b6e/html5/thumbnails/43.jpg)
$1,136,500
$803,200
![Page 44: Strong Towns Presentation for CommunityMatters in Newport Vermont](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022052901/5567f2f5d8b42aaf768b4b6e/html5/thumbnails/44.jpg)
$317,992 Total
$23,284 Per acre
![Page 45: Strong Towns Presentation for CommunityMatters in Newport Vermont](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022052901/5567f2f5d8b42aaf768b4b6e/html5/thumbnails/45.jpg)
$28,744 Total
$82,125 Per acre
You can fit 40 Pub500s in Target footprint
![Page 46: Strong Towns Presentation for CommunityMatters in Newport Vermont](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022052901/5567f2f5d8b42aaf768b4b6e/html5/thumbnails/46.jpg)
Mankato - 1870
![Page 47: Strong Towns Presentation for CommunityMatters in Newport Vermont](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022052901/5567f2f5d8b42aaf768b4b6e/html5/thumbnails/47.jpg)
STEP 2:
Leveraging Public Infrastructure
![Page 48: Strong Towns Presentation for CommunityMatters in Newport Vermont](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022052901/5567f2f5d8b42aaf768b4b6e/html5/thumbnails/48.jpg)
![Page 49: Strong Towns Presentation for CommunityMatters in Newport Vermont](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022052901/5567f2f5d8b42aaf768b4b6e/html5/thumbnails/49.jpg)
![Page 50: Strong Towns Presentation for CommunityMatters in Newport Vermont](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022052901/5567f2f5d8b42aaf768b4b6e/html5/thumbnails/50.jpg)
![Page 51: Strong Towns Presentation for CommunityMatters in Newport Vermont](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022052901/5567f2f5d8b42aaf768b4b6e/html5/thumbnails/51.jpg)
• New “Justice Center”
• $X million
• County Gov’t & DOT Offices
• $X Million
![Page 52: Strong Towns Presentation for CommunityMatters in Newport Vermont](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022052901/5567f2f5d8b42aaf768b4b6e/html5/thumbnails/52.jpg)
![Page 53: Strong Towns Presentation for CommunityMatters in Newport Vermont](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022052901/5567f2f5d8b42aaf768b4b6e/html5/thumbnails/53.jpg)
![Page 54: Strong Towns Presentation for CommunityMatters in Newport Vermont](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022052901/5567f2f5d8b42aaf768b4b6e/html5/thumbnails/54.jpg)
![Page 55: Strong Towns Presentation for CommunityMatters in Newport Vermont](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022052901/5567f2f5d8b42aaf768b4b6e/html5/thumbnails/55.jpg)
STEP 3:
Revitalizing is about Incremental Urbanism
![Page 56: Strong Towns Presentation for CommunityMatters in Newport Vermont](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022052901/5567f2f5d8b42aaf768b4b6e/html5/thumbnails/56.jpg)
STEP 3:
Revitalizing is about Incremental Urbanism
![Page 57: Strong Towns Presentation for CommunityMatters in Newport Vermont](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022052901/5567f2f5d8b42aaf768b4b6e/html5/thumbnails/57.jpg)
What is incremental urbanism?
• Small is beautiful
– Little Projects have a Big Impact
• Many Projects & Experiments
– Some will succeed. Some will fail
![Page 58: Strong Towns Presentation for CommunityMatters in Newport Vermont](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022052901/5567f2f5d8b42aaf768b4b6e/html5/thumbnails/58.jpg)
What we’ve been doing …
![Page 59: Strong Towns Presentation for CommunityMatters in Newport Vermont](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022052901/5567f2f5d8b42aaf768b4b6e/html5/thumbnails/59.jpg)
What we’ve been doing …
![Page 60: Strong Towns Presentation for CommunityMatters in Newport Vermont](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022052901/5567f2f5d8b42aaf768b4b6e/html5/thumbnails/60.jpg)
What we’ve been doing …
![Page 61: Strong Towns Presentation for CommunityMatters in Newport Vermont](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022052901/5567f2f5d8b42aaf768b4b6e/html5/thumbnails/61.jpg)
This is what we should be doing …
![Page 62: Strong Towns Presentation for CommunityMatters in Newport Vermont](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022052901/5567f2f5d8b42aaf768b4b6e/html5/thumbnails/62.jpg)
This is what we should be doing …
![Page 63: Strong Towns Presentation for CommunityMatters in Newport Vermont](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022052901/5567f2f5d8b42aaf768b4b6e/html5/thumbnails/63.jpg)
This is what we should be doing …
![Page 64: Strong Towns Presentation for CommunityMatters in Newport Vermont](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022052901/5567f2f5d8b42aaf768b4b6e/html5/thumbnails/64.jpg)
This is what we should be doing …
![Page 65: Strong Towns Presentation for CommunityMatters in Newport Vermont](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022052901/5567f2f5d8b42aaf768b4b6e/html5/thumbnails/65.jpg)
This is what we should be doing …
![Page 66: Strong Towns Presentation for CommunityMatters in Newport Vermont](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022052901/5567f2f5d8b42aaf768b4b6e/html5/thumbnails/66.jpg)
Learn how to DIY.
These are great, but …
It needs to goes beyond yoga & bike lanes …
![Page 67: Strong Towns Presentation for CommunityMatters in Newport Vermont](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022052901/5567f2f5d8b42aaf768b4b6e/html5/thumbnails/67.jpg)
This is what we should be doing …
![Page 68: Strong Towns Presentation for CommunityMatters in Newport Vermont](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022052901/5567f2f5d8b42aaf768b4b6e/html5/thumbnails/68.jpg)
This is what we should be doing …
![Page 69: Strong Towns Presentation for CommunityMatters in Newport Vermont](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022052901/5567f2f5d8b42aaf768b4b6e/html5/thumbnails/69.jpg)
This is what we should be doing …
![Page 70: Strong Towns Presentation for CommunityMatters in Newport Vermont](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022052901/5567f2f5d8b42aaf768b4b6e/html5/thumbnails/70.jpg)
This is what we should be doing …
![Page 71: Strong Towns Presentation for CommunityMatters in Newport Vermont](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022052901/5567f2f5d8b42aaf768b4b6e/html5/thumbnails/71.jpg)
STEP 4:
Connect
![Page 72: Strong Towns Presentation for CommunityMatters in Newport Vermont](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022052901/5567f2f5d8b42aaf768b4b6e/html5/thumbnails/72.jpg)
Strong Towns Network
![Page 73: Strong Towns Presentation for CommunityMatters in Newport Vermont](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022052901/5567f2f5d8b42aaf768b4b6e/html5/thumbnails/73.jpg)
Peer collaboration
![Page 74: Strong Towns Presentation for CommunityMatters in Newport Vermont](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022052901/5567f2f5d8b42aaf768b4b6e/html5/thumbnails/74.jpg)
Expert advice
![Page 75: Strong Towns Presentation for CommunityMatters in Newport Vermont](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022052901/5567f2f5d8b42aaf768b4b6e/html5/thumbnails/75.jpg)
Strong Towns University
![Page 76: Strong Towns Presentation for CommunityMatters in Newport Vermont](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022052901/5567f2f5d8b42aaf768b4b6e/html5/thumbnails/76.jpg)
Strong Towns University
![Page 77: Strong Towns Presentation for CommunityMatters in Newport Vermont](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022052901/5567f2f5d8b42aaf768b4b6e/html5/thumbnails/77.jpg)
BIG Concepts
1. The current path cities are are on is not financially stable.
2. The future for most cities is not going to resemble the recent past.
3. The main determinant of future prosperity for cities will be the ability of local leaders to transform their communities.