strengthening flood forecasting and warning centres early warning capacity under cdmp-ii, modm&r
DESCRIPTION
Strengthening Flood Forecasting and Warning Centres Early Warning Capacity under CDMP-II, MoDM&RTRANSCRIPT
Project Brief and Progress
Strengthening Flood Forecasting and Warning Centres Early Warning Capacity
under CDMP-II, MoDM&R
FFWC
BWDB
Objective:
• Increase deterministic flood forecast lead time from 3-days upto 5 days
• Develop capacity to forecast flash flood in the north east region of Bangladesh
• Extend flood forecast with respect to important infrastructures & targeted BWDB projects
• Develop & disseminate more user friendly forecasts through improved web-site
• Development of Local Area Network
• Capacity development of FFWC
Planning
Design
Implementation Admin Accounts
& Finance
Hydrology
Surface
Water
Ground
Water
Data
Processing
Flood Forecasting &
Warning Centre
River
Morphology
Disaster Mitigation Approaches; Water Sector
Structural
Flood Control, Drainage and Irrigation projects
Coastal embankment
Dredging/de-siltation to increase conveyance
Riverbank Protection
Accelerated Land Reclamation
Salinity protection
Surface water retention (including rain water)
Non-structural
Flood and drought forecasting and Warning
Erosion Prediction (planned)
Hydrological data collection and survey
Capacity development All
the
se
are
co
vere
d in
the
BW
DB
Act-
20
00
Flood Forecasting & Warning Centre (FFWC)
FF
WC
Sta
rte
d1
97
2
Two consecutive big flood 1987 & 1988 –
Model based Flood Forecast initiated
6 Stations Bahadurabad, Serajganj, Aricha,
Goalondo, Bhagyakul and Hardinge Bridge
Based on correlation
Started1972 Started1972
1992-MIKE11-FF Model introduced
16-Flood Forecasting points – 24 hrs
1995-2000 MIKE 11 Model with GIS - 30-FF points - 48 hrs
2004-07 MIKE 11 Model with GIS - 38-FF points – 72 hrs
Up
to 1
99
0
CDMP-II (2011-14)
MIKE 11 Model with GIS - 38-FF points – 120 hrs
on Jamuna
on Padma
Day-1 24 hrs
Forecast Observe
present
Water Level
future
Day-2 48 hrs
Day-3 72 hrs
3 days deterministic forecast (existing condition)
Day-1 24 hrs
Forecast Observe
present
Water Level
future
Day-2 48 hrs
Day-3 72 hrs
3 days deterministic forecast (existing condition)
UNDP funded research initiative under CDMP-II, after 3 years 3 days deterministic forecast likely to extend 5 days
Day-1 24 hrs present
future
Day-2 48 hrs
Day-3 72 hrs
Forecast Observe
Day-4
96 hrs
Day-5
120 hrs
Model Rivers & Boundary
Non-Tidal 1. Panchagar( Korotya)
2. Dinajpur (Punrobhaba)
3. Rohanpur (Mohanada)
4. Pankha (Ganges)
5. Badarganj( Jamuneshery)
6. Gaibandha (Ghagot)
7. Dalia (Teesta)
8. Kurigram (Dharla)
9. Nonkhawa ( Brahmaputra)
10. Nakuagaon (Bhugai)
11. Durgapur( Someswari)
12. Lorergarh (Jadukhata)
13. Sarighat (Sarigowain)
14. Faridpur (Kumar)
15. Amalshid ( Kushiyara
16. Manu Railway Bridge (Manu)
17. Comilla (Gumti)
Tidal
1. Monghla (Passure)
2. Ryanda(Baleshwer)
3. Patharghat( Biskhali)
4. Dosmina(Tetulia)
5. Daultkhan(Meghna)
73 WL stations, add data
5 times a day, 73x5=365
WL data
56 rainfall data,
once in daily basis
Boundary estimation
for next 3-days
Model run
3-days lead time flood forecast in 38 points
Generate 5-days lead time water
level forecast in all 38 forecast points
with development of boundary
condition for next 5-days CM
P-I
I G
OA
L
Pre
sent c
onditio
n
Flood Forecast
coverage
Coastal zone Flood Forecast
yet to start
Ganges Brahmaputra Meghna Basin Model
Water Level
Monitored by BWDB
•Tidal 215
•Non tidal 128
Total = 343
73 Water Level gauge
stations used for Flood
Forecasting Purpose.
Water Level monitoring
and data transmission
is entirely Manual
Water Level Gauge
Recorded 5 times
a day
3 hourly interval
only day time
Rainfall Gauge
Recorded once in 24 hours
06:00 to 09:00 hrs 08:30 to 10:30 hrs 10:30 to 11:00 hrs 11:00 to 12:00 hrs 11:30 to --------
Field Observation Water Level Rainfall
Other Sources BMD Satellite image Web-site Indian data
Model Run
FFWC Office
Flood Inundation
Map
Feed to computer
Analysis & Quality check
Flood Bulletin
Preparation
Dissemination Through Hard copy E-mail Fax Phone Web-site SMS Cell Broadcast Distributed to Policy makers Disaster managers (GO & NGO) Media Others
Rainfall Surface
Map
Result consistency
check
Data Collection Preparation Dissemination Output
Flood Forecasting & Warning Activities
Error check
Water Level
from 73
stations
73x5=365
Rainfall 56
stations, daily
basis
Hard Copy – Limited, policy makers and top officials
e-mail – over 600 address in different groups, Ministries,
BWDB, Disaster management agencies, NGO, Research
Organ, Development partners, District Offices, Media etc.
Fax – Limited, policy makers and top officials
Phone – Continuous response
Web-site – www.ffwc.gov.bd
SMS – Very limited
Lobby Display – In front lobby of the main building
IVR –Latest, started July-2011, call 10941 from mobile,
Bangla Voice Message
Dissemination
Evaluation 3 days deterministic forecast
2012 monsoon forecast
evaluation for 24 hours
(1-day lead time) 92%
correct
72 hrs (3 days) 79% correct
2012 monsoon forecast
evaluation for 48 hours
(2-day lead time) 85%
correct
Evaluation 3 days deterministic forecast
Coastal zone Flood
Forecast yet to start
Basin Model Calibration Plots Danger Level-Q [m^3/s]HB_SDT [-]Hardingebridge-Q-Rated [m^3/s]Simulated Discharge [m^3/s]
Jan2011
Feb2011
Mar2011
Apr2011
May2011
Jun2011
Jul2011
Aug2011
Sep2011
Oct2011
Nov2011
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
Dis
char
ge (m
3/s)
Station:Hardinge Bridge, River:Ganges;
Danger Level-Q [m^3/s]Jamuna Bridge_SDT [-]Simulated Discharge [m^3/s]
Jan2011
Feb2011
Mar2011
Apr2011
May2011
Jun2011
Jul2011
Aug2011
Sep2011
Oct2011
Nov2011
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
90000
Dis
char
ge (m
3/s)
Station:Bahadurabad, River:Jamuna;
Ga
ng
es a
t
Ha
rdin
g B
ridg
e
Ja
mu
na
at
Ba
ha
du
rab
ad
Sample 5-day Discharge Forecast for Brahmaputra Basin Discharge (Observed) [m^3/s]Real time rated Discharge [m^3/s]Forecasted Discharge [m^3/s]
August2012
September2012
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
90000
100000
Dis
ch
arg
e (
m3/s
)
Station:Bahadurabad, River:Jamuna; Forecast Date:07/10/2012
5 d
ays le
ad
tim
e f
ore
ca
st
real time rated Discharge [m^3/s]Forecasted Discharge_Day1 [m^3/s]Forecasted Discharge_Day2 [m^3/s]Forecasted Discharge_Day3 [m^3/s]Forecasted Discharge_Day4 [m^3/s]Forecasted Discharge_Day5 [m^3/s]
August2012
September2012
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
90000
Dis
ch
arg
e (
m3
/s)
River:Jamuna, Station: Bahadurabad
5-day Discharge Forecast Performance at Bahadurabad of the Jamuna River Forecast R2
Day1 0.912
Day2 0.908
Day3 0.882
Day4 0.824
Day5 0.737
Pe
rform
ance
Excellent match
Excellent match
Sa
tisfa
cto
ry,
still c
ha
nce
of
imp
rove
me
nt
Need
improvement
M½v b`x
hgybv b`x
cÙv b`x
‡gNbv b`x
c~e©vfvm
Chilmari
Bahadurabadi
Serajgonj
Aricha
5-day Forecast Bulletin for the Jamuna River
Existing 3-days lead time
Will add 2 more days, total 5-days lead time under
ongoing CDMP-II project
Forecast Bulletin
1-day 2-day 3-day 4-day 5-day
Chilmari
Bahadurabadi
Serajgonj
5-day Forecast Hydrograph for the Jamuna River
5-days lead time
5-days lead time
Tra
il ba
sis
5-d
ays le
ad
time
fore
ca
st fo
r Bra
hm
ap
utra
Ba
sin
Chilmari on Brahmaputra
Bahadurabad on Jamuna
5-day Forecast Hydrograph for Brahmaputra Basin
5-days lead time
5-days lead time
Tra
il ba
sis
5-d
ays le
ad
time
fore
ca
st fo
r Bra
hm
ap
utra
Ba
sin
Kazipur on Jmuna
Sirajgonj on Jamuna
5-day Forecast Hydrograph for Brahmaputra Basin
5-days lead time
5-days lead time
Tra
il ba
sis
5-d
ays le
ad
time
fore
ca
st fo
r Bra
hm
ap
utra
Ba
sin
Porabari Jamuna
Aricha on Jamuna
Performance of Forecast upto 5 days on Brahmaputra Jamuna River
Experimental August September 2012
Good, Very Good and Excellent
Po
or
to G
oo
d
Ne
ed
imp
rove
me
nt
Comparison; Forecast (experimental) with Observe August & September 2012
Chilmari on
Brahmaputra
Observe WL
Bahadurabad on
Jamuna
Comparison; Forecast (experimental) with Observe August & September 2012
Serajgonj on
Jamuna
Comparison; Forecast (experimental) with Observe August & September 2012
Aricha on
Jamuna
Comparison; Forecast (experimental) with Observe August & September 2012
Amalshid measured [m]AMALSHID Forecast [m]
D:\N
E_F
FF
\M11\P
LC
\WL_U
PD
-NE
-FF
F.d
fs0
D:\N
E_F
FF
\M11\P
LC
\28-A
PR
-2012-0
0-0
0\F
ore
casts
\AM
ALS
HID
.dfs
0
00:002012-04-23
00:0004-25
00:0004-27
00:0004-29
00:0005-01
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
12.0
13.0
14.0
Wa
ter
Le
ve
l m
PW
D
Kushiyara River at Amalshid; Forecast Date 28-05-2012
Sylhet measured [m]SYLHET Forecast [m]
00:002012-04-23
00:0004-25
00:0004-27
00:0004-29
00:0005-01
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
Wa
ter
leve
l m
PW
D
Surma River at Sylhet; Forecast Date 28-04-2012
Kanairghat measured [m]KANAIRGHAT Forecast [m]
00:002012-04-23
00:0004-25
00:0004-27
00:0004-29
00:0005-01
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
12.0
Wa
ter
Le
ve
l m
PW
D
Surma River at Kanairghat; Forecast Date 28-05-2012
Flash Flood
Forecast trail
result For
Sunamgonj
(pilot area) Observe
Observe
Observe
Need further improvement
Forecast upto 5 days on
Brahmaputra-Jamuna River
(experimental) generated in last
monsoon (August & September 2012)
Flash flood forecast(guidance) in
Sunamgonj & Sylhet (experimental)
generated, is being disseminated
from mid April 2013
Web-site development and maintenance
Draft web developed, feedback invited, hope to
launch from this monsoon (June 2013)
Upgrading and extension of LAN & maintenance
Rehabilitation, restoration and extension of the LAN
has been completed with new instruments. Two
independent and separate internet line (in parallel)
established. From next monsoon, intranet will be
established.
Existing Web-Site
New Web-Site (Under development)
New Web-Site (Under development)
Upgrade & development of visual display & maintenance
Continuous basis flood warning dissemination system has
been installed, covering the common lobby of the WAPDA
Building at the main entrance at the ground floor. The
WAPDA Building covering the agencies of BWDB and the
BPDB. It also covering the Briefing Room of the FFWC.
Capacity Development
Training component started and one training has
been completed at the FFWC office during 23-27
September 2012. Total 14 official/professionals of
different disciplines participated from the BWDB.
Requirement for further
Addition of Forecast Point
Existing Forecast 38 Points
Additional Forecast 16
Points, total will be 54 points
Danger level fixation
Additional water level gauges
Bulletin preparation with
additional 16 points
Update web-page with
16-additional points
This could be done with least
cost as the on going activities for
lead time increase covered
many items, like data collection
from existing gauges, calibration
and testing of results etc.
Budget is there, no need to
change the scope of work, it is
under Research on Prediction
Model – the workplan item
Approval from the CDMP-II
Received. RFP Issued, hope to
start from this year monsoon
(End of May 2013) to be tested
in two monsoon 2013 & 2014
Sl.No River Name Station Name District Upazilla
01 Jamuna Sariakandi Bogra Sariakandi
02 Baulai Khaliajuri Netrokona Khaliajuri
03 Old Surma Derai Sunamganj Derai
04 Kalni Markuli Hobiganj Ajmiriganj
05 Kushiyara Sherpur Moulovibazar Sherpur
06 Jamuna Sarisabari Jamalpur Sarisabari
07 Jamuna Dewanganj Jamalbari Dewanjganj
08 Dhaleswari Munshiganj Munshiganj Munshiganj
09 Dharala Kurigram Kurigram Kurigram
10 Shitalakhya Lakhpur Narayanganj Rupganj
11 Meghna Narsingdi Narsingdi Narsingdi
12 Mohananda Chapai Newabganj Chapai N. Ganj Chapai N. Ganj
13 Ghagot Gaibandha Gaibandha Gaibandha
14 Atrai Chanhkair Natore Gurudaspur
15 Hurasagar Baghabari Sirajganj Shahazadpur
16 Padma Charbhadhrasion Faridpur Charbhadhrasion
Additional Forecast 16 Points
1972 – 6 stations few hours
1992 – 16 stations 24 hours
1996 – 30 stations few 48 hrs
2005 – 38 stations 72 hours
2012 to 2014 – 38 stations 120 hrs
– additional 16 stations,
(38+16) total 54stations 120 hrs
CDMP-II