street by street, house by house, area based retrofit for low carbon homes best approaches for...
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Street by street, house by house, area based retrofit for low carbon homes
Best approaches for Scotland
David Adams
Head of External Affairs
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But it’s ok?
“1.1 Scotland is an energy-rich nation, internationally recognised as having vast resources in renewable energy, oil and gas.”
Peak oil?Or, viewed from afar:
Peak Oil – Viewed from a distance
0 1000 2000 3000 4000
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Oil Price
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
Jan
-70
Jan
-74
Jan
-78
Jan
-82
Jan
-86
Jan
-90
Jan
-94
Jan
-98
Jan
-02
Jan
-06
Jan
-10
Jan
-14
Jan
-18
Jan
-22
Jan
-26
Jan
-30
Jan
-34
Jan
-38
Jan
-42
Jan
-46
Jan
-50
US
Do
llars
What will energy cost
in 2050?
Fuel poverty
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Progress to date…
1970 1980 1990 2000 2008
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Progress to date…
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Future
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Heat and Energy Saving Strategy
Homes
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Your targets…
• 80% CO2 emissions reduction by 2050
• 42% CO2 emissions reduction by 2020
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Scottish Final Energy Consumption
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Victorian 3 bed semi*
• Appliances 1.2TCO2pa
• Lighting and pumps 0.5TCO2pa
• Water heating 1.0TCO2pa
• Space heating 4.5TCO2pa
• Total 7TCO2pa
*Includes some upgrades – 30% Low energy lighting, 50mm Loft insulation, basic double glazing
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Retrofitting
“Standard” package:• Cavity wall insulation• Loft insulation• Condensing Gas Boiler • Heating controls• Low energy lighting• Draft proofing• Floor insulation• ….
• Circa £3,000 to £4,000
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Retrofitting
“Expensive to treat” package:• Solid wall insulation• Loft insulation• Condensing Gas Boiler / Biomass boiler /GSHP• Heating controls• Low energy lighting• Draft proofing• Floor insulation• ….
• Circa £12,000 to £20,000
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The challenges
• 42% reduction in energy
• 2.5 million homes
• Typical £7,000 each to upgrade
• £16billion
– £1.6B per year
• £6 M per working day
– 900 homes completed every day……
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The challenges - engagement
• Requires 900 homes completed every day……
• Today? guess = 150K pa or 500 per day
• Issue - much more needs to be done with each to reach a 42% reduction
• = Area based refurbishment
• = single streets
• = single homes
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Area based approach
Barriers to energy efficiency
Including• split incentives, • Behavioural inertia• Institutional inertia, • perceived risks of investment, • not ‘top of mind’ issue
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The challenges – what, when
• Whole house all at once is expensive• Scary numbers!• … will be appropriate on occasions• Need to have a whole house ‘plan’• Execute it at appropriate times
• Need the community - Area based approachCreate momentum
Demonstrate locally what can be done
Reassurance
Protection
Raise to ‘top of mind’
…. even if single homes are refurbished• Behavioural
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The challenges - financial
• Where does £16billion come from?
• Euqivalent to £640 spent per household per year to 2020 ????
• ……
• “However, due to the significant sums involved, it is assumed that those who are able to pay will invest or borrow to undertake work.”
• Why?
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Remembering…
Significantly more would be spent on fuel than on the cost of the energy efficiency measures
Energy efficiency makes sense:Climate, energy security, fuel poverty, cost
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Financing approaches
• Required rapidly • Need a range of, available to all
– Green mortgages– “Pay As You Save”
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Financing approaches
• Required rapidly • Need a range of, available to all
– Green mortgages– “Pay As You Save”– …..
• Need to ‘value’ energy efficient homes– Regulation to drive valuation
• Need financial incentives
Remembering:
Significantly more would be spent on fuel than on the cost of the energy efficiency measures
We are not putting people into debt
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Compulsion or incentives?
• Need to engage• Incentives – yes• Make it “easier to do” than “not do”• Responsibly warn people what is to come
– Fuel costs, – climate, – Legislation
• = withdrawal of incentives..• = unable to sell / rent• must give long timescale warning (but effect is more
rapid)• …and in some circumstances - compulsion
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Supply chain…
• Industry will invest if there is confidence in:– a robust– Quality– long term market
• Your time scale is very short• Need to serious delivery plan
They would be mad not too
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Remembering…
Significantly more would be spent on fuel than on the cost of the energy efficiency measures
Energy efficiency makes sense:Climate,
energy security,
fuel poverty,
Job creation
Comfort
Costs less!
It actually doesn’t get any better than this!Just need to work out how….!
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Thank you
David Adams, Knauf Insulation