Strategies for Agriculture Development in Pakistan

Shafqat Farooq

Ex-Director (Academic Planning), PIEAS, Islamabad

CEO: AM AgriCon (SMC-PVT) Ltd, Islamabad

Constraints of Agriculturei. Immense water shortage,ii. Depletion of soil organic matter and unbalanced plant nutritioniii. Salinization of originally productive soilsiv. Yield gapv. Excessive use of environment unfriendly chemicals including nitrogenous fertilizers and pesticides,v. Contamination of soil and water with hazardous metals/chemicalvi. Insufficient disease control measures for poultry/animal production

Finding solutions to these constraints can result in development of

agriculture

The indicator of this development should reflect in GDP growth which determines how fast the economy is growing.

Technically, economic growth means percentage increase or

decrease of GDP compared to the previous quarter.

In the country like Pakistan where economic development is largely linked with agricultural

development, it is essential that the

contribution of agriculture to GDP should not be less than

50% but as of 2012, it stands at 21.2%.

Ayub

Bhutto Zia ul Haq

Benizir/N Shrif Musharaf

Zardarii

Perhaps, we have not been able to address all, some or key constraints of agriculture

developmentDuring 2011-2012 Major crops grew at 3.2% GDP growth was 3.7% while

Overall agriculture grew at 3.17% against the target of 3.4%

Target of GDP growth was 4.2 %.

0.17% below the target 0.5% below the target

Low production of wheat was considered as one of the main causes of missing targets (says economic survey 2012)

Target GDP growth for 2013 is 4.1%

Anticipating that major crops will contribute 4%, minor crops 4.5%, livestock 4.2%, fisheries 2% and forestry 2% if every thing remain the same only wheat will decide

the fate of GDP during 2013

Target GDP growth for 2013 is 4.1%

Anticipating that major crops will contribute 4%, Minor crops 4.5%, livestock 4.2%, fisheries 2% and forestry 2% if every thing remain the same only wheat will decide

the fate of GDP during 2013While targets for livestock, fisheries and forestry are positive, targets for

major and minor crops are expected to fluctuate

Target GDP growth for 2013 is 4.1% Anticipated targets for major crops in 2013

Provisional estimatesin 2013

Wheat 25.5 Mt >26 Mt

Rice 06.9 Mt 07.2 Mt

S-cane 59.0 Mt 68.5 Mt

Maize 04.3 Mt

04.3 Mt

Cotton 14.5 Mb

13.9 Mb

Source data: Economic Survey of Pakistan

Apparently: all the targets are to be achieved except for cotton which not yet final

Target GDP growth for 2013 is 4.1% Anticipating targets for major crops are

Prov. estimateIn 2013

If wheat remains

GDP growth will be

Wheat 25.5 Mt >26 Mt 25.5Mt 4.6%

Rice 06.9 Mt 07.2 Mt 24.5 Mt 4.0%

S-cane 59.0 Mt 68.5 Mt >26Mt 5.0%

Maize 04.3 Mt

04.2 Mt

Cotton 14.5 Mb

13.9 Mb

Production of wheat should therefore, be increased substantially to strengthen the economy via GDP

growth

Source data: Economic Survey of Pakistan

What is required in crop sector and why?Resources comprising land, water and manpower so that agriculture can be:

Productive: So that share in GDP can be increased from 21.2 % to 27% by 2015

Profitable: So that it can generate more income with less expenditure compared to other ventures

and should produce exportable commodities Competitive: So that it can reduce poverty in the rural

areas, through providing livelihood and creation of jobs Sustainable: So that it should be able to absorb shocks

and remain productive forever,

We have in hand

Available Potential

Land 23.13 Mha 6.30 Mha saline0.80 Mha under GTC0.41 Mha under KC0.17 Mha under RC

Water 89.8 MAF (2012) 8500 Cusecs in GTC6000 Cusecs in KC5155 Cusecs in RC

19655 Cusecs in totalManpower: 45% (2012) All those related with

newly irrigated areas

Rabi season (Winter)Major crops: Wheat, Minor crops: oil seed, grams 

Wheat (Anticipated wheat production in 2012-2013 would be >26Mt: highest ever)

Target during 2012-2013 : 25.5 MtAchieved in 2011-2012: 23.52 MtCurrent area: 08.7 Mha Should be ≥9MhaCurrent production: 23.5 M tons Should be ≥26 M tonsCurrent share in GDP 2.6% Should be ≥4%  

All the targets can be met through different strategies

Strategy-1: Increase in area under cultivation which require additional irrigation water

Strategy-2:Increase in yield which require intensive research

Strategy-3: Shift in agriculture pattern which require strategic planning

Are all the 3 strategies are doable?

Stragety-1: part-1 Additional water availability1. Greater Thal Canal (GTC), PunjabPasses through Bhakkar, Layyah, Khushab, Jhang Taken out of Chasham Jehlum Link Canal near Adhi KotWill carry flood water in Monsoon season which will of 8500 cusecs of water That will be for at-least 120 days:4 months and can be used for sugarcane, wheat and oil seed crops1.9 M acres (0.8M ha) in Punjab will be benefited

2. Kachhi Canal (KC), Punjab and BalochistanWill pass through Muzaffargarh, DG Khan, Rajanpur in Punjab, andDera Bugti Naseerabad, Bolan and Jhal Magsi in Balochistanand would irrigate area 713,000 (0.289Mha) of which 102,000 acres (0.0413 Mhaare in Southern Punjab and will carry Punjab share of water and flood water of 6000 cusecs

3. Rainee Canal (RC), SindWill pass through Ghotki, Sukkur, and Khairpur of SindWill be taken from Guddu BarrageWill carry 5155 cusecs of water, andWill irrigate about 412,400 acres (0.167Mha) in Sind

Strategy-1: part-2:Increase in area1.089Mha extra area would be available in Punjab that will come in the command of GTC and KC

Use 0.339M ha of 1.089M ha that comes under Grater Thal Canal (GTC) in which 120 days of water is also available.

Current average wheat yield is 2714kg/haWith same yield, additional production of 0.92M tons is possible339,000 (GTC) x 2714=920,046,000 kg or 0.92 M tons i.e. total production would be 24.44 Mt. (Add 2011-2012 production of 23.52Mt)

Domestic consumption=20Mt @ ½ kg/person of 10-60 years oldSmuggling: 2 Mt: Remaining: 2.44 Mt

Export at international price or keep as buffer stock

Result: Food security/profitability and increased share in GDP

Strategy-2: Researchable areas

Wheat ChickpeaWater deficiency tolerance Stress tolerance both High temperature tolerance wilt and blight Low input requirement High yielding Disease resistance Uniform maturity High yieldingImproved root system

Techniques to be used for researchInter and intra-specific crosses, Hybrid

breeding, Mutation breeding

Strategy-3: Shift in Agriculture pattern

Use 1.054Mha area allocated for chick pea by diverting entire chick pea crop in the Thal area under GTC and KC (1.089Mha),

This will bring another 1054,000 ha under wheat1054,000 x 2741=2,88901400 kg or

2.89Mt additional wheat, i.e. total wheat production will be 26.41 Mt

(add production of 2011-2012: 23.52 Mt) (Enough for domestic consumption, and export)

The GDP share will increase automatically

Together we achieve the

target because

Where there is a Where there is a will there is a waywill there is a way

Thanks