strategically elevating student success - oregon · high school diploma or equivalent less than...
TRANSCRIPT
OSU
Data and Directions for HECC
Ben Cannon
Executive Director
August 2, 2018
OSU
SWOCC
Clackamas
CC
STRATEGICALLY ELEVATING STUDENT SUCCESS:
A vision for Oregon higher education
“The Higher Education Coordinating Commission (HECC) envisions a future in which all Oregonians -- and especially those whom our systems have underserved and marginalized – benefit from the transformational power of high-quality postsecondary education and training.
“It is a future where innovative colleges, universities, and training providers, both public and private, help Oregonians to reach their highest potentials, build trajectories to family-wage careers, foster a more just society, and break patterns of intergenerational poverty.
“It is a future where postsecondary education fuels a resilient economy by anticipating workforce needs and by fostering innovation, research, and knowledge. In the future we envision, all Oregonians enjoy well-lived lives thanks to the myriad benefits of postsecondary education and training...”
From the HECC Strategic Framework, December 20172
Educational attainment in Oregon
COCC
4
Oregon’s 40-40-20 goal for young adults (HS class of 2025 and beyond)
Bachelor’s or advanced degree
Associate degree or certificate (est.)Some college, no degree
High school diploma or equivalent
Less than high school diploma
Source: American Community Survey data, 1-year estimates.
5
Measuring educational attainment
We endorse a broad understanding of what “counts” for the middle 40, including:
Two-year Associate degrees
One-year certificates
Registered apprentice-ships
Career pathways certificates
Other credentials
We use U.S. Census data to measure attainment, estimating the number of certificates and registered apprenticeships
Oregon attainment tends to be similar to or slightly higher than in the U.S. as a whole, and attainment has risen for both
groups in recent years
6
How does Oregon’s adult population measure up against 40-40-20?
Bachelor’s or advanced degree
Associate degree or certificate (est.)Some college, no degree
High school diploma or equivalent
Less than high school diploma
Source: American Community Survey data, 1-year estimates.
10.6% 10.0% 9.7% 10.0% 9.9% 9.9% 9.7%
19.1% 19.8% 19.6% 19.1% 19.2% 18.4% 18.1%
21.3% 20.7% 20.6% 20.4% 20.1% 19.6% 19.6%
19.1% 19.3% 19.2% 19.3% 19.2% 19.0% 19.1%
29.9% 30.1% 30.9% 31.3% 31.6% 33.1% 33.5%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Oregonians 25-64 years old
20
%
40
%
40
%
40-40-20 GOAL
Postsecondary Educational Attainment,Associate’s Degree and Above, Age 25-64
Source: U.S. Census, American FactFinder Table 15002, 2006-2016.
38%
43%
38%
42%
35%
36%
37%
38%
39%
40%
41%
42%
43%
44%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
WICHE
OREGON
Postsecondary Educational Attainment,Associate’s Degree and Above, Age 25-64
Source: U.S. Census, American FactFinder Table 15002, 2012-2016.
31%
36%
38%
38%
39%
40%
41%
42%
43%
44%
44%
44%
46%
48%
50%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
Nevada
New Mexico
Arizona
Alaska
Idaho
Wyoming
California
Montana
Oregon
Utah
South Dakota
Hawaii
Washington
North Dakota
Colorado
Postsecondary Educational Attainment, Associate’s Degree and Above, By Race/Ethnicity, Aged 25-64
Source: U.S. Census, American Community Survey, https://www.census.gov/hhes/socdemo/education/.
60%
44%
33%
21%20%
60%
49%
33%
21%19%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Asian White Black American Indian/AlaskaNative
Hispanic
WICHEOregon
Oregon Coast CC
Enrollment trends at Oregon public institutions
Oregon Undergraduate Enrollment by Institution Type, 2006-2016
Source: IPEDS Fall Enrollment Survey 2006-2016
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Public Four-Year Public Two-Year Independent
Total Undergraduate Enrollment in Oregon Public Institutions of Higher Education by Race/Ethnicity, 2006 & 2016 (With Percent Change)
Source: IPEDS Fall Enrollment Survey 2006 & 2016.
+3%
+187%
+24%+34% -21%
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
White Hispanic Asian Black American Indian/AlaskaNative
2006 2016
Oregon Coast CC
Completion numbers and rates
OIT
14
Community College Associate Degrees by race/ethnicity
Source: HECC analysis of Oregon community college student records.
248
492
61
253
317
1476
71 177201
397
509
0
500
1000
1500
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Number of degrees awarded to students in racial/ethnic groups
Asian American count Black or African American count
Hispanic/Latinx count Native American/Alaska Native count
Native Hawaiian or Pacific Islander count Two or more races count
5,1127,792
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Number of degrees awarded to students who are white
15
University Degrees by race/ethnicity
Source: HECC analysis of Oregon public university student records. Includes all degrees to Oregon residents, regardless of type of degree.
14,183
15,710
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Number of degrees awarded to students who are white
902
1,373
305 428 607
2,032
212 261
108 115
1,208
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Number of degrees awarded to students in racial/ethnic groups
Asian American count Black or African American count
Hispanic/Latinx count Native American/Alaska Native count
Native Hawaiian or Pacific Islander count Two or more races count
Graduation Rates by Institutional Type, 2016
National Center for Education Statistics (NCES), Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS). Graduation Rate Survey, 2016
19%
38%
65%
68%
27%
49%
65%67%
23%
47%
65% 64%
PUBLIC TWO-YEAR PUBLIC BACCALAUREATE/MASTER'S
PUBLIC RESEARCH PRIVATE, FOUR-YEAR
Oregon WICHE US
Oregon Postsecondary Graduation Rates by Institutional Type, 2006-2016
National Center for Education Statistics (NCES), Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS). Graduation Rate Survey, 2002-2015
15% 19%
54%59%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Completion Year
Public, Two-Year Institutions Public, Four-Year Institutions
Oregon Graduation Rates at Public, Four-Year Institutions, 2016
National Center for Education Statistics (NCES), Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS). Graduation Rate Survey, 2016
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%
American Indian or Alaska Native
Black or African American
Hispanic
White
Asian
Oregon Coast CC
Projecting future demand
LBCC
High School Graduates in Oregon, 1993-94 to 2012-13 (Actual); 2013-14 to 2031-32 (Projected)
Source: Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education, “Knocking at the College Door: Projections of High School Graduates, December 2016” http://www.wiche.edu/knocking.
20,000
22,000
24,000
26,000
28,000
30,000
32,000
34,000
36,000
38,000
40,000
1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 2023 2026 2029
ACTUALPROJECTED
Cumulative Change in Oregon’s Public High School Graduates after 2012-13 by Race/Ethnicity
Source: Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education, “Knocking at the College Door: Projections of High School Graduates, December 2016” http://www.wiche.edu/knocking.
-1,000
-500
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
2012-13 2015-16 2018-19 2021-22 2024-25 2027-28 2030-31
5,807 Hispanic1,815 Asian/Pac. Isl.498 Am. Ind./Alaska Native779 Black2,918 Private Schools25,463 White
+3,341
+1,177 +1,689
+284
-107-217
-250
22
Most family-wage jobs still rely on postsecondary education
Source: Employment projections from Oregon Employment Department, https://www.qualityinfo.org/-/long-term-job-openings-
fueled-by-growth-retirements . Salary data from Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupations with the most job growth projected 2014-
2024, https://www.bls.gov/emp/ep_table_104.htm
Of the 100 jobs with the largest growth in Oregon, 40 have above-average earnings, and 30 of these 40 require postsecondary education.
Registered nurses
General and operations managers
Accountants and auditors
Computer programmers
Business operations specialists, all other
Computer network architects
Market research analysts, marketing specialists
Computer & information research scientists
Software and web developers
Managers, all other
Lawyers
Management analysts
Computer & information systems managers
Physicians and surgeons, all other
Physical therapists
Elementary school teachers
Financial managers
Computer occupations, all other
Real estate brokers
Software developers, systems software
Civil engineers
Sales managers
Cost estimators
Marketing managers
Wholesale and manufacturing sales rep’s, technical and scientific products
Industrial engineers
Massage therapists
Secondary school teachers, except special and career/technical education
Construction managers
Medical and health services managers
Salary Range: $53,000-$143,000Median income for all employed Oregonians: $48,100
Oregon Coast CC
Postsecondary finance data
WOU
Public FTE Enrollment, Educational Appropriation and Total Revenue per FTE, Oregon, Fiscal 2000-2017
Do
llars
Pe
r F
TE
Pu
blic
FT
E
Source: State Higher Education Executive Officers, “State Higher Education Finance, The FY 2017 Report,” http://www.sheeo.org/sites/default/files/project-files/SHEEO_SHEF_FY2017_FINAL.pdf
$7
,13
0
$7
,54
4
$6
,73
0
$6
,26
1
$5
,60
3
$5
,46
5
$5
,70
9
$5
,77
8
$6
,07
5
$5
,68
4
$4
,90
8
$4
,52
5
$4
,05
3
$4
,13
6
$4
,57
8
$5
,06
1
$5
,83
9
$5
,95
9
$4
,87
4
$4
,21
8
$4
,34
7
$4
,73
5
$5
,12
8
$5
,39
6
$5
,31
4
$5
,45
0
$5
,37
5
$4
,95
8
$4
,92
2
$5
,87
5
$6
,40
1
$6
,82
1
$8
,03
6
$8
,13
2
$8
,06
0
$7
,88
7
-
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
$-
$2,000
$4,000
$6,000
$8,000
$10,000
$12,000
$14,000
$16,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
FTE
Enro
llmen
t
Rev
enu
e p
er F
TE
Appropriations per FTE Tuition per FTE FTE
Tuition as a Percent of all Education Revenue, FY2000-FY2017
Do
llars
Pe
r F
TE
Pu
blic
FT
E
Source: State Higher Education Executive Officers, “State Higher Education Finance, The FY 2017 Report,” http://www.sheeo.org/sites/default/files/project-files/SHEEO_SHEF_FY2017_FINAL.pdf
41%
57%
20%
36%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
OREGON
WICHE
Change in Resident Undergraduate Tuition and Fees at Four-Year Institutions, from 2007-2017
Source: WICHE Tuition and Fees, 2017, http://www.wiche.edu/pub/tf.
6%
17%
21%
31%
31%
33%
36%
36%
38%
46%
52%
54%
61%
67%
75%
86%
Montana
North Dakota
Wyoming
South…
Alaska
Washington
New Mexico
Idaho
Utah
Oregon
Nevada
WICHE
California
Colorado
Hawaii
Arizona
$- $2,000 $4,000 $6,000 $8,000 $10,000 $12,000State average cost of tuition and fees at public 4-year institutions
2007-08 2017-18Percent Increase
Resident Undergraduate Tuition and Fees at Four-Year Institutions, 2017-18
Source: WICHE Tuition and Fees, 2017, http://www.wiche.edu/pub/tf.
$5,217
$6,776
$6,835
$6,838
$6,921
$7,245
$7,411
$7,439
$8,187
$8,709
$9,328
$9,527
$9,660
$10,439
$10,601
$10,719
$11,219
$0 $2,000 $4,000 $6,000 $8,000 $10,000 $12,000
WYOMING
UTAH
MONTANA
GUAM
NEW MEXICO
IDAHO
NEVADA
ALASKA
NORTH DAKOTA
SOUTH DAKOTA
WICHE
CALIFORNIA
WASHINGTON
OREGON
HAWAII
COLORADO
ARIZONA
Resident Undergraduate Tuition and Fees at Two-Year Institutions, 2017-18
Source: WICHE Tuition and Fees, 2017, http://www.wiche.edu/pub/tf.
$1,380
$1,748
$2,180
$2,598
$3,208
$3,209
$3,739
$3,761
$3,787
$3,846
$3,960
$4,038
$4,194
$4,304
$4,539
$4,627
$5,074
$7,168
$- $1,000 $2,000 $3,000 $4,000 $5,000 $6,000 $7,000 $8,000
CALIFORNIA
NEW MEXICO
WICHE W/ CALIFORNIA
ARIZONA
NEVADA
WYOMING
WICHE W/O CALIFORNIA
UTAH
MONTANA
HAWAII
IDAHO
COMM. NO. MARIANAS
GUAM
WASHINGTON
COLORADO
NORTH DAKOTA
OREGON
SOUTH DAKOTA
Debt BurdenAverage Loan Amount for Bachelor's Recipients, 2007 vs. 2016
Adapted from The Institute for College Access and Success, “Project on Student Debt,” http://www.ticas.org/posd/map-state-data-2016#. Adjusted to 2016 Dollars using CPI downloaded from: https://data.bls.gov/pdq/SurveyOutputServlet
$22,704 $27,321
$-
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
$25,000
$30,000
$35,000
Class of 2007 Class of 2016
Oregon Coast CC
Taking a longitudinal view
PSU
31
Is postsecondary education delivering on its promise of mobility?
Nationally, 82% of students from the top quartile of family income
earn a Bachelor’s degree, compared with just 9% of students from the bottom income quartile
[President Ed Ray, 2018].
In Oregon, students who qualify for Free or Reduced Lunch in K-12 are one third as likely to earn a degree
as students who don’t [Oregon Learns, 2016]
The degree of income segregation across American colleges is
comparable to income segregation across neighborhoods in the
average American city [Equality of Opportunity Project,
2017]
The HECC’s strategic focus on student success
ChemeketaChemeketa CCClackamas CC
Student and finance data, in summary…
There are major gaps between our current attainment rates and state goals, especially for the Middle 40 and for underrepresented communities.
The recession-induced enrollment boom resulted in significant increases in the number of degrees and certificates awarded by Oregon public institutions over the last decade, especially to underrepresented minorities.
Success rates for students at Oregon public institutions are slowly increasing, but a very sizable proportion of enrollees do not complete.
The “pipeline” (ie HS graduates) for new post-secondary students is not projected to significantly expand, although its diversity will.
Nation-leading increases in per-student state appropriations and tuition revenues at Oregon public institutions have improved institutional funding, but not yet to the national average and not at pace with cost pressures.
33
Common institutional strategiesCultivate non-traditional students (adult, online) and new markets (out-of-state, international)
Improve communication of brand value, and marketing to Generation Z
Reboot tuition strategies
Academic transformation: eg revamped gateway courses, lower textbook costs, innovations in teaching
Increase retention and completion rates
Build the donor base
34From Hanover Research, “Trends in Higher Education 2018” and
The Chronicle of Higher Education, “The Future of Learning” (2018)
35
Intersections with the HECC
• How does the HECC promote, inhibit, and shape institutional strategies?
• How does the HECC directly empower individual Oregonians?
To advance its vision of opportunity, attainment, and equity…
HECC strategic action areas
• Through advanced data analysis, evaluation, and reporting, HECC will build public and institutional commitment to meeting achievement goals and closing equity gaps.
Reporting
• HECC will develop an approach to state funding for higher education and workforce that is directly linked to student success.Funding
• HECC will promote clear onramps to education and training, reduce barriers for transfer students, and link graduates with careers.Pathways
• HECC will develop a comprehensive outreach plan to ensure all Oregonians have access to affordable, relevant options for postsecondary education and training.
Outreach
36From the HECC Strategic Framework, December 2017
And ways of doing it?
• Communicating the value of post-secondary education.
Voice
• Elevating political and public support for post-secondary education. Advocacy
• With moral purpose, articulating a set of values and expectations for post-secondary education in Oregon.Leadership
37
38
In view of the HECC’s responsibilities, opportunities, and 2017-21 strategic directions …
• How can we elevate equitable student success?