strategic trends 2011 emerging powers

7/31/2019 Strategic Trends 2011 Emerging Powers

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Editor: Daniel Mckli

Series Editors: Andreas Wenger and Victor Mauer

Authors: Matthew Hulbert, Prem Mahadevan, Daniel Mckli,

Roland Popp

Center for Security Studies

Key Developments in Global Affairs

STRATEGIC

TRENDS 2011

ETH ZurichCSS


2/25

CHAPTER 1

Power shifts: Emerging markets

emerged, geopolitics fracturedMatthew Hulbert

Emerging markets have recovered from the economic crisis far betterthan the West. As geoeconomic power is shifting East, it is questionablewhether China should still be coined as emerging. Yet it is not just on thegeoeconomic level that emerging markets matter, but in the geopolitical

realm. A debt-ridden US will stagger on, Europe will falter, new powers willrise on Beijings commodity back. No common rule book will be found, andno cohesive blocs formed either way. Entropy will become the definingfeature of a fractured international system.

11

Russias President Medvedev, Brazils (former) President Lula da Silva, Chinas President Hu andIndias Prime Minister Singh in Brasilia, 16 April 2010


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4/25

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13

E M E R G I N G M A R K E T S E M E R G E D

CIVETS

Bangladesh

Nigeria

Pakistan

Iran

Philippines

MIKT

Mexico

South Korea

VISTA

Indonesia

Turkey

South Africa

Vietnam Egypt

Next-11

ColombiaArgentina

Emerging markets: Beyond BRICs


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14

S T R A T E G I C T R E N D S 2 0 1 1

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US$ trade weighted exchange index: broadSource: Federal Reserve 2011

80

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

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17


Eurozone members

Other EU member

states

Turk

Spain

Portugal

Malta

Italy

Ireland

UnitedKingdom

Hungary

Greece

(144%)130%

(71%)70%

(120%)118%

(90%)84%

(79%)63%

(92%)83%

(105%)94%

(86%)77%

(75%) (80%)

78%70%

(74%)66%

(106%)100%

(77%)75%

Germany

France Austria

91 % or more

Gross governmentdebt as % of GDP (2010)

Figures in brackets show2013 forecast

Sovereign risk fears

Source: IMF 2010, CSS ETH Zurich

81 % 90 %

71 % 80 %

70 % or less

Netherlands

Belgium

EU countries with largest debt to GDP ratios

EU17 vs. EU10


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18


Lacking geopolitical clout

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0Def. exp./GDP Def. exp./

total gov exp.troops deployed/total milit. pers.

Defence expenditure

Sources: European Defence Agency 2010 (figures 2009)

5

10

15

20

0

125

250

375

500

UK FR GER

US EU26

% Euro (Bn)

Too much and too little: US and European defence compared


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20


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Share of global GDP: China closes on the US

0

5

10

15

20

25

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

US

C

I

G

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United States

China

IndiaSource: IMF 2011

Note: Graphic displays comparison of US, BRIC,and Germany as Europes biggest economyrather than a global ranking

Germany

Russian Federation

Brazil

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21


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Contributions to global growth: China taking the lead

0

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15

20

25

30

35

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Brazil Russia India China BRIC G3(US/EU/Japan)

Source: Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research 2011 20012010 20112020


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24


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100

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250

300

350

400

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1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

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2002

2003

2004

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2011

1

2

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2

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Sugar Price Index

Oil Price Index

Cereals Price Index

Food Price Index

Dairy Price Index

Meat Price Index

5

6Source: Food and Agriculture Organization 2011

Price indices (2002-2004=100)


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25


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at the heart of the US-China

relationship in the Middle East


19/25

28


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Emerging markets areno more politically

aligned than the West


20/25

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30


BRIC

N11

G7

Source:IMF2011

2015forecasts

1.

China

9,5

2.

India

8,1

3.

Vietnam

7,5

4.

Bangladesh

7

5.

Indonesia

7

6.

Egypt

6,5

7.

Nigeria

6

8.

Pakistan

6

9.

Philippines

4,5

10.

Brazil

4,1

11.

RussianFederation

4

12.

Korea,Republicof

4

13.

Turkey

4

14.

Mexico

3,8

15.

Iran

3

16.

UnitedKingdom

2,6

17.

UnitedStates

2,6

18.

France

2,1

19.

Canada

2

20.

Japan

1,7

21.

Germany

1,3

22.

Italy

1,3

BR

IC,

N11,

G7:GDPgrowth20

15(in%):Chindiaahead


22/25

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32


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33


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25/25

STRATEGIC TRENDS offers a concise annual analysis of major developments inworld affairs, with a primary focus on international security. Providing succinctinterpretations of key trends rather than a comprehensive survey of events,

this publication will appeal to analysts, policy-makers, academics, the media,and the interested public alike. It is produced by the Center for Security Studies(CSS) at ETH Zurich. Strategic Trends is available both as an e-publication (www.sta.ethz.ch) and as a paperback.

STRATEGIC TRENDS 2011 is the second issue of the Strategic Trends series.It contains a brief overview as well as chapters on emerging markets and frac-tured geopolitics, changing regional dynamics in the Middle East, terrorismand counterterrorism ten years after 9/11, and narcotics as a growing security

concern.

The Center for Security Studies (www.css.ethz.ch) at ETH Zurich specialises inresearch, teaching, and the provision of electronic services in international andSwiss security policy. An academic institute with a major think-tank capacity, ithas a wide network of partners.

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