strategic plays for the 2nd half of market recovery: orlando
DESCRIPTION
Presented by: Dianne P. Crocker Orlando DDD, December 10, 2013 In the grand scheme of market recovery, we now stand at the start of the second act. The past five years were all about survival. 2013 was the true start of market rehabilitation. And now as we prepare for 2014, optimism has finally taken root. Business confidence, profitability and investors’ forecasts are more positive than they have been in recent years. Despite the uncertain economic outlook, the prospects for property assessment firms are more encouraging than at any time since 2008. 2014 will be a year of refocusing and repositioning in a still-challenging market. Get the latest take on the market’s new normal: -Pricing and turnaround time benchmarks -The new clients, new lenders, new drivers -Trends reshaping the market -A look at what to expect in 2014TRANSCRIPT
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For presentation at:
Orlando Due Diligence at Dawn workshop
December 2013
Strategic Plays for the 2nd Half of Market Recovery Presented by:
Dianne P. Crocker, Principal Analyst
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Survival Mode
True start of
market rehabilitation
Year of refocusing
and repositioning
Market in Transition
2008 2010 201220112009 2013 2014
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© 2013
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© 2013
Status of Commercial Real Estate
The year 2014 may well be the year that the real estate markets “recover from the recovery.”
PricewaterhouseCoopers Emerging Trends in Real Estate, November 2013
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View of Market: 50,000 Feet
CRE Lending +14%
-SBA Lending +13%
Property transactions:
-Large +27%
-Small (<$5M) +18%
-Portfolios +20%
CMBS Issuance +46%
• All debt spigots are open.• Growing investor confidence.• More diversity in lenders,
investors.• Activity across broader spectrum
of properties.• Improving property fundamentals.
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•4Q12: the most active quarter since 4Q07
•By 3Q13, deal flow up 27% in 3Q YTD
•Poised for healthy finish to the year
Large Commercial Real Estate Deals Up
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• The velocity of small-cap sales is more than keeping pace with the larger CRE investment market.
• Up 17% YTD this year• Transactions continue to grow at a faster clip in
bigger cities than smaller ones.
Small Cap Transactions
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• Multifamily is still the “belle of the ball” (up 31% Y-on-Y)
• Retail: sales of strip centers are up 30% • Office/industrial getting more interest• Warehouse activity, especially in port cities
Property Types in Favor
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• U.S. Retail Store Closings in 2013:• Blockbuster (460)• Fashion Bug• GameStop• Barnes & Noble• The Gap• US Cellular• Sears/Kmart
Properties in Flux
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Good News on the CMBS Front
• 2012: • Post-recession high
of $48B • 2013:
• Already surpassed year-end 2012 issuance
• 46% growth forecast for 2013
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Banks’ Sell-off of Nonperforming Assets
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• Lenders have returned to originating commercial real estate loans as values and credit quality improve and demand increases
• Commercial and multifamily real estate borrowing and lending continued at a moderate clip in the third quarter.
• Origination volumes:• 29% higher than in Q3 2012 • Flat compared to 2Q13• Up 14% year to date
Source: MBA’s Quarterly Index of Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Bankers Originations, 3Q13.
Commercial Property Lending Volume
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LENDING: A Positive Take
“More banks were lending on income-producing commercial real estate properties in more places in the 3rd quarter. The number of lenders who plan to increase property loans in next 12 months far outnumber those who plan to lower them.”
~ Sam Chandan, president and chief economist at Chandan Economics
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• The comeback of commercial real estate lending is gaining momentum, especially credits backed by apartments and leased properties.
• CRE lending was a scourge for scores of community banks during the financial crisis, but more banks are warming up to it in their quest for higher returns. • However, CRE lending volumes remain well below the
highs of six years ago.
Bottom Line on Lending
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• Supported more than $29B in loans in FY13—its third-highest year ever.
• More than 54,000 loans backed through its 7(a) and 504 programs
• The number of 7(a) loan increased to 46,399 in 2013, 4.6% over the number of loans in FY 2012.
• The 504 loans produced more than 7,700 loans in FY 2013, a slight decrease from FY 2012.
• 7(a) lending is picking up steam after being halted by the government shutdown.
SBA Lending: A Bright Spot
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• Slow 2012 turned corner• Uncertainty giving way to
confidence• Firms turn to M&A for growth on
their own• 2nd half of 2013 expected to be
active
M&A Gaining Momentum
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ORLANDO
Spotlight on:
24th in the US for “Top Markets to Watch: Overall Real Estate Prospects
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Other Regional “Metros to Watch”
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Points in Orlando’s Favor: • Investment prospects still
considered “generally good.” • In its favor:
• up four spots from 2013. • Orlando will outperform
more metros in 2014• Job growth outperforming
US average (4th in US)• Housing will drive CRE
recovery…
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“Single-family residential is coming back. There will be 8,000 single-family residential units built in Orlando in 2013. This sector will get stronger and stronger. There is a lot of for-sale property being built.”
~Local commercial lender
Single-Family Housing Here…
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© 2013
APPROACHES TO ENVIRONMENTAL RISK MANAGEMENT
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• 94% of institution’s boards now devote more time to risk
management oversight than five years ago
• 80% percent of chief risk officers report directly to either
the board or the CEO
Source: Deloitte lender study
Banks and Risk Management
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• “I know the banks’ Environmental Risk Reviewers would like to tighten the standards on a more consistent basis, but they get a lot of pressure from the loan officers to make the deals happen.”
• “I believe that clients are more aware of the potential environmental risks involved with real estate and are requiring more in-depth
research and diligence before purchasing property.”• “Our projects are much more likely to go to a Phase II investigation
than in past years.”
• Loan closings are being delayed for environmental issues-simply because financial institutions are no longer willing to take on risk as
they once were.”
Attitudes Toward Environmental Risk
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Benchmarks in Environmental Due Diligence
4Q11 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13
% of EDD for foreclosures 17% 11% 7% 5%
Liquidating CRE loans (% of respondents)
51% 38% 42% 36%
Selling REO (% of respondents)
77% 69% 65% 63%
Phase Is proceeding to Phase IIs
6% 10% 17% 16%
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Phase I ESA Market Benchmarks
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Florida Phase I ESA Trend
• Steady growth trend in 2013
• 18% growth in 2Q13• Continued in 3Q
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FLORIDA Metro Performance
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Intense Pressure
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Intense Pressure
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• Intense pressure on price and turnaround time continues. • Latest results show that $1,800 - $2,400 is a typical basic Phase
I ESA pricing range• Higher prices on the East and West coasts.
• Average turnaround:• 2-3 weeks• As short as 8-10 days on portfolio projects. • Speed has become a differentiator…
Phase I ESA Pricing and Turnaround Time
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• “Due to demands for fast turnaround and specialized service, we have felt justified in charging more for our services. Even with increased rates, we are still being awarded the work. Might raise our prices a bit more next quarter.”
• “Based on large volume of work coming in the door and the demand for quick turnaround times, we have increased our prices and are choosing the clients we want to work with.”
Turnaround Time and Phase I Pricing
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“It’s a dog eat dog world. I say we just wait it out.”
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© 2013
2014 Strategic Playbook
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© 2013
Strategic Plays for 2014
1. Pay attention to the drivers2. Target the strongest opportunities3. Leverage technology4. Seize every opportunity to stand out
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• Developers • Equity REITs• Foreign investors• Institutional capital and equity funds• Financial institutions, insurance, credit unions• M&A• Retail/big box
STRATEGY:Target Drivers of Phase I ESA Growth:
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• The universe of buyers is growing rapidly • The number of active buyers over the past twelve months
grew by 3,300 participants with the private sector seeing the greatest growth.
• A number of new investors from Asia and Europe are also growing in influence.
= new opportunities for expanding client base
Recent Trend:
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10 Most Active Buyers
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Most Active Sellers of CRE
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Top 10 Developers
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1. National Development
2. Divco
3. Artemis
4. Davis Companies
5. AEW
6. Spear Street
7. Campanelli
Source: Cassidy Turley MA
BOSTONTop Buyers/Investors in 2013:
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• Wells Fargo • 1st for 5th consecutive year ($ volume)• 2nd largest in 7(a) loan units (3,481 loans in FY13)• Approved 18% more 7(a) loans over prior year• 504 loan dollars up by 38 percent in 2013
• Chase • 1st for 4th consecutive year (# of loans)• Approved 4,104 7(a) loans in FY13• At state level: top in Arizona, Illinois, Louisiana, New Jersey and
New York.• Huntington, TD, US Bank
Top SBA Lenders
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• “We've recently seen lenders aggressively come back to this business who retreated during the crisis," said Philip B. Flynn, CEO of Associated Banc-Corp.
• SunTrust Banks: • “We’ve put our distress problems behind us and are back
to focus on growth." • Growing its retail, office, multifamily and industrial CRE
relationships. • Also building out its REIT business
• GE Capital Real Estate is increasing lending by 40% this year
Which Lenders Are Growing Originations?
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• PNC Financial Services Group (PNC), U.S. Bancorp (USB) and KeyCorp (KEY) all reported loan growth of at least 5% in the third quarter
• Loan growth for the regional banks is outpacing the growth of the industry overall
Regional Banks 3Q13 Loan Growth
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• Efficiency is KEY to data management
• Need for constant communication
• Better collaboration• Reduced cost/time• More engagement with clients
STRATEGY:Leverage Technology
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One EP’s Take on Technology
How has technology changed the way that you conduct Phase I environmental site assessments?
“Now I can go on a site visit, take photos on my smartphone or tablet, record my notes in real time, go to a coffee shop, upload everything to my computer and write my report. I can do all of this in between site visits, especially if I’m on the road or out of town. I used to carry around too much clutter to a site visit. Each time I performed a new function, I would have to put down one object to use another, distracting me from my greater purpose. Going into the field with just a smartphone or tablet is one of the most enlightening experiences for me.”
Duncan Anderson, Odic
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Most Used Apps by EPs
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• NYC technology conference:“More data. More transparency. If we can all get data into people’s hands faster, it’s a win-win for everyone. And these apps need to be rapidly deployed. They can’t take users even one second longer to use.”
• Xceligent has a mobile app, eXplore™ iPad App, that gives commercial real estate professionals real-time access to over 50 fields of data by using a set radius or by drawing a polygon around a customized search area.
CRE and Tech Intersect
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STRATEGY:Seize Opportunities to Educate
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Out in Front on Education Related to ASTM E 1527-13:
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• Refocuses attention on education and awareness• Some new requirements to consider• Valuable reminders on certain areas of EDD (e.g., user
responsibilities) that risk managers may not have given much thought to in the past eight years
Impact of a New ASTM Standard
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• Vapor intrusion awareness• New SBA SOP 50 10 5(f) as of Jan. 1st • OCC Guidance, August 2013• Real-world examples/reminders of why environmental
due diligence is critical
Other Opportunities to Educate
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• Watch the market barometers• Be strategic in your business targets• Leverage technology• Get your name out there as a technical expert
Playbook Strategy Summary
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Dianne P. CrockerPrincipal Analyst, EDR Insight
Research and Analytics:www.edrnet.com/EDRInsight
Twitter: @dpcrocker Email: [email protected]