strategic framework for economic and social restructuring in thailand
DESCRIPTION
Strategic Framework for Economic and Social Restructuring in Thailand. Office of the National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB) 2 8 April 2005. Kampanat Pensupar, Ph.D. Roles and Responsibilities of NESDB. Strategic Planning Agency Socio-Economic Policies Advisory - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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NESDB2005
Strategic Frameworkfor Economic and Social Restructuring in Thailand
Office of the National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB)
28 April 2005
Kampanat Pensupar, Ph.D
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NESDB2005
⢠Strategic Planning Agency
⢠Socio-Economic Policies Advisory
⢠Intelligence Unit
Roles and Responsibilities of NESDB
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TRACK I
ConsumptionInvestmentEmployment
TRACK II
Export of goods and services
GDP growth
average 5.2 %
TodayThe past 4 years
GDP 2004 6.5 Tril. baht
Inflation 2.7% Current account 6.2% of GDP
Public debt 46.2% of GDPNPLs 11.4% of total loansForeign reserves 48.9 bill$
Stability
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Dual Track Development Model
First track emphasizes foreign direct investment
and manufactured exports under economic integration
with rest of the world
Domestic demand element
Second track: domestic and grassroots
Local enterprise element
1. OTOP2. Village Funds3. SMEs Bank and People Bank4. Venture Capital5. Housing project and housing loans for GPF member and SOEs employees 6. Capital Creation7. Low price computer and internet fees8. 30 Baht health care9. Life insurance policy for low income
Parallel emphases on two pillars
Global competitiveness
Economic Forecast as ofEconomic Forecast as of December 7, 2004
Economic Forecast as ofEconomic Forecast as of December 7, 2004
2002 2003p 2004f 2005f
GDP (current price, bil.B) 5,446.0 5,930.4 6,523.4 7,130.1
GDP Growth (const. p., %)
5.3 6.9 6.2> <
5.5-6.5
Gross Investment (const. price, %)
6.5 11.9 12.7 12.2
Aggregate Consumption (constant price, %)
4.8 5.8 5.9 5.6
Export Value (%) 4.6 18.6 22.5 11.8
Import Value (%) 4.4 17.0 25.7 15.5
Trade Balance (Bill.US$) 2.7 3.1 2.8 -0.4
Current Account (Bill.US$)
7.0 8.0 10.1 8.7
Current Account/ GDP (%)
5.5 5.2 6.2 4.6
Inflation (%) 0.7 1.8 2.7 2.9-3.2
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Poverty1998 2000 2002
Poverty line (baht/person/month) 882 916 922
Number of poor (mil.person) 8.88 8.16 6.22
Poverty ratio (%) 14.22 12.96 9.76
1998 2000 2002
GINI coefficient 0.51 0.53 0.51
Income share of highest 20% (%) 56.5 57.8 55.2
Income share of middle 60% (%) 39.3 38.3 40.6
Income share of lowest 20% (%) 4.2 3.9 4.2
Income Distribution
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0
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
20101960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Rice
Crude Rubber
Ores & Metal
Scrap
Textile Fiber
Fruit &
Vegetable
Rice
Crude Rubber
Fruit &
Vegetable
Non-ferrous
Metal
Textile Fiber
Clothing
Electrical
machinery
Seafood
Other Machinery
Rice & Rubber
Electrical
Machinery
Computer-Parts,
Accessories
Seafood
Telecom
Equipment
Apparel
Tourism
Whatâs Next???
â˘AgriâŚâ˘ManufâŚâŚâ˘Service
Rice
Fruit &
Vegetable
Non-ferrous
Metal
Crude rubber
Electrical
machinery
Import Substitution, Export-led growth, FDI Innovation + Knowledge
Key Policies/Drivers:
GDP Mil Baht
Goal: What will be Thailandâs next real sector development path?
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NESDB2005Dare to dream Thailand from now to 2020Dare to dream Thailand from now to 2020 Dare to dream Thailand from now to 2020Dare to dream Thailand from now to 2020
Trends of Economic Development
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
ComparativeAdvantage
CompetitiveAdvantage
AdaptiveAdvantage
Understanding marketplaceUnderstanding marketplace
Developing productsDeveloping products
Understanding the worldUnderstanding the world
GrowthGrowth
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Economic restructuring
Economic growth with stability
Expand opportunities to grassroot level
Economic integration
TechnologyPopulation and social change
Environment and natural resource
Consumption trend
GDP GDP 9.5 Tril. baht9.5 Tril. baht
4 PrinciplesEconomic stability
Value creationProactive social policy
Regional economic cooperation
Key Points
2008FuturePast 4 years
6 strategiesAgricultural value creation
Industrial value creationServices base expansionProactive social policySecurity and international cooperation
Public sector reform
Dual Track Policies
Paradigm shifts
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International Economic Policies
International Economic Policies
Global Reach and Local Link: Bilateral FTA
Prosper The Neighbours: ACMECS,
GMS
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5 Paradigm shifts
Economic Integration Technology
Population & Social Envi. & Nat. Resource Consumption Trend
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Economic stability and sustainability
Proactive social policy to create
positive externality
Global and regional positioning
Value creation from knowledge application฼
Guiding Principles for Economic and Social Restructuring
Sustained ProsperityMore Balanced Structure
Better Distribution
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New DemandNew Demand
Existing Resource Endowment
New Technology
⢠People
⢠Natural resources
⢠Cultural values
⢠Indigenous Knowledges
⢠âThainessâ
Knowledge Management
⢠Repackaging/Branding Real Products & Services
⢠Value Creation
⢠Balancing Economic & Social investment
⢠Repackaging/Branding Real Products & Services
⢠Value Creation
⢠Balancing Economic & Social investment
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Strategies for Economic and Social Restructuring
⢠Agricultural value creation and natural resources
⢠Industrial value creation
⢠Services base expansion
⢠Proactive social policy
⢠Security and international cooperation
⢠Public sector reform
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Measures⢠Factors of production
â Increase irrigated land by 6 mil.rai (incl. small reservoirs and pipe system) to reduce risks and divest main crops
â Efficient water management for agriculture and other usagesâ Land quality improvement and increase biodiversity
⢠Agricultural price stability by management of demand and supply of products, regional producers coordination, and ensure regional food security
⢠Promote production and utilization of Ethanol and Biofuel created from main crops such as cassava, sugar cane and oil palm
⢠Promote animal farming especially cows and increase researches on artificial insemination
⢠Asset capitalization in fisheries sector (Seafood Bank)⢠Develop agricultural product standard and food safety system, and
GAP⢠Increase investment in research and development (esp. horticulture
and husbandry)⢠Support OTOP to create non-farm incomes for farmers⢠Improve marketing and distribution channel to deliver fresh products
to consumers
Agricultural value creation & natural resources
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Industrial value creation
Measures
⢠Cluster development⢠Entrepreneur development for SMEs and community enterprises⢠Develop national innovation system and intellectual property
system⢠Develop science and technology infrastructure⢠Promote branding and design⢠Increase IT application in SMEs⢠Develop excellent centers for future technology⢠Promote investment in new automobile model and improve
quality in order to reach 18. cars production target⢠Develop âEnergy Hubâ⢠Promote green production and waste reduction
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Services base expansion
MeasuresTourism⢠Expand aviation networks through open sky policy and low cost airline⢠Linking tourism networks especially cultural package tour with
neighboring countries⢠Develop new tourism sites and prevent deterioration of tourism
environment⢠Establish standard for tourism facilities such as hotel, spa and traditional
massage ⢠Develop tourism standard and human resource Health⢠Promote talented overseas medical doctors and teachers to work in
Thailand⢠Negotiate FTA to allow reimbursement of healthcare expenditure in
Thailand from home (foreign) countryâs social security systemFinancial⢠Promote Bangkok to be a region business and financial hub⢠Develop financial market, and new instruments⢠Develop secondary market for mortgage loans, and establish building and
loan associationsinfrastructure⢠Develop logistics system and expand infrastructures⢠Develop broadband communication infrastructure
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⢠Promote varieties of savings scheme for retirement and increase opportunities for work for aging group
⢠Promote appropriate health behavior for aging group⢠Plan for the establishing of long-term healthcare system⢠Revive traditional value and culture of cohabitation of different age
groups in society⢠Increase opportunities to utilize knowledge of aging group in
economic and social development e.g. expanding the Brain Bank scheme
Aging Society
⢠Improve housing standard and public services in order to create good social environment and reduce health expenditure of people
⢠Improve basic infrastructure and accessibility for aging and disability groups
Housing
Human and Social
Security
⢠Promote community strength and role in managing safety and security in life and assets⢠Promote social protection for people in informal economy⢠Promote role of family in nurturing discipline, life-skill and social responsibility
Proactive Social Policy
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⢠Accelerate ACMECS and JDS to support bordered economy including economic and social cooperation and seeking development partners
⢠Negotiate trade agreement and cooperation at bilateral, regional and mutilateral levels in order to expand market access, arrange inter-agency mechanism for comprehensive and coordinated negotiation
International CooperationInternational Cooperation
Warning SystemsWarning Systems
⢠Build an early warning system of natural disaster and network of regional cooperation in early warning systems
Security and International Cooperation
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⢠Building capacity of central agencies in order to be intelligence agency supporting trade negotiation and cooperation dialogue
Capacity Building of
Central Agencies
Capacity Building of
Central Agencies
Building Social Harmony
Building Social Harmony
⢠Campaign and ingrain Thai value and Thainess identity⢠Build mechanism in public sector and civil society for protection and
reduction of conflict⢠Promote mechanism for people participation in economic and social
development e.g. participate as Advisory board of CEO governor⢠Promote socially responsible and constructive media
⢠Develop regional planning strategy to be management tools for CEO governor, provincial cluster and region
⢠Build capacity for management and administration at regional level such as sub-district administration and CEO governor
⢠Design urban plan and land usage plan, and expand infrastructure to support urban expansion and livable-city development
⢠Establish resource allocation mechanism for public infrastructure investment with clear and efficient responsibility of central and local agencies
Domestic Regional
Development
Domestic Regional
Development
Enabling Competitiveness of Private Sector
Enabling Competitiveness of Private Sector
⢠Reform law, rule, regulation and tax system⢠Reform bureaucracy and public services ⢠Anti-corruption at every levels and professions⢠Increase government budget for social, environment and natural
resource while diversify sources of fund for infrastructure development
Public sector reform
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⢠Poverty Eradication Policy
⢠Human Development and Quality of Life Policy
⢠Restructuring Policy toward a balance and competitive economy
⢠Natural Resources and Environmental Policy
⢠Foreign and International Economic Policy
⢠Legal System Development and Good Governance Policy
⢠Policy to Promote Democracy and Civil Society Process
⢠National Security Policy
Government Policies