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Strategic Foresight


It is not your customers job to remember you. It is your job to make yourself



What Are The Forces Driving Change

Faster, cheaper, smaller, experience-based and technology-focused: • $250,000 per gigabyte• In 1972, this was a $32 million dollar piece of

technology


VUCA

Volatility. Uncertainty. Complexity. AmbiguityVUCA is an acronym used to describe or reflect on the volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity of general conditions and situations.

The term was first used in the 1990s and derives from military vocabulary


VUCA

And it tends to show up like this:Gradually.

Gradually.

Gradually.

SUDDENLY!


The Forces Driving Change

Faster, cheaper, smaller, experience-based and technology-focused: • The world’s largest cab companies do not own cars

• But when they do, the cars will be driverless



Faster, cheaper, smaller, experience-based and technology-focused: • The world’s largest housing company doesn’t own any

property



Faster, cheaper, smaller, experience-based and technology-focused: • The world’s largest retailer owns no merchandise



Faster, cheaper, smaller, experience-based and technology-focused: • The world’s largest content provider creates no

content



Faster, cheaper, smaller, experience-based and technology-focused: • Can you compete with Amazon?



Faster, cheaper, smaller, experience-based and technology-focused: • Can you compete with Amazon-like experiences?


Speed And Change Are Not Slowing Down

The data shows that the speed at which many aspects of our world is changing is exponential.


What Is Strategic Foresight?

Strategic foresight is the capacity to look at the future and spot emerging trends so you can proactively address them.


Finding Your Scope: Competitive Advantage And Market Leadership

1. Filter out all irrelevant information.

2. Focus on competitive advantage.

3. Focus on market leadership.

4. Discern viable strategies.


• Engage Strategists

• Scan the Environment

• Connect the Dots

• Act

• Measure

The Strategic Foresight Cycle


Strategic foresight and operational excellence are mutually reinforcing activities.

PPAI Strategic Foresight Readiness Profile


has been profitable for the last three years.

can identify a range of potential customers.

has grown in recent years as measured by sales, employee count, and/or customers served.

has access to the resources we need to scale our growth.

understands how it generates profits (its business model) including which offerings generate the best income.

observes trends among competitors’ business models.

Capacity For Operational ExcellenceMy organization…

1 2 3 4 5

1 2 3 4 5

1 2 3 4 5

1 2 3 4 5

1 2 3 4 5

1 2 3 4 5

Strongly disagree Strongly agree

Take the quiz online here: https://www.ppai.org/strategic-foresight-quiz

https://www.ppai.org/strategic-foresight-quiz


can describe our target market in specific terms regarding customer segments, traits, goals, and needs.

is able to identify our closest three competitors by name and source of competitive advantage.

can describe our position relative to market leadership in our industry—number 1, number 2, etc.

has developed several viable business strategies for evaluation.

can detect trends reshaping our industry, including faint signals of emerging trends.

has insight into the business environment affecting our customers, including socio-cultural, technological, ecological, political, and legal factors.

is cognizant of global trends and factors affecting our customers and/or supply chain.

Capacity For Strategic Foresight

1 2 3 4 5

1 2 3 4 5

1 2 3 4 5

1 2 3 4 5

1 2 3 4 5

1 2 3 4 5

1 2 3 4 5

My organization…

Strongly disagree Strongly agree


Choose Your Plays


Engaging Strategists1

THE PLAYS l 23

Expert On The Fly

Benefit: The unique opportunity to discuss the future of your space with someone in a knowledgeable position

What to do: When you encounter an expert in an informal setting, query them on what the future holds and how it will affect your organization

Engaging Strategists l© 2018

THE PLAYS l 24

Outsider In The Mix

Benefit: Bolstering your strategy’s likelihood for success by expanding your outlook and accounting for varying ideas, experiences, and opinions

What to do: Invite someone to sit down with you and your team


THE PLAYS l 25

Corporate Think Tank

Benefit: Bring together a synergistic group of thinkers to discuss strategies for confronting market disruption. This is a powerful tool for identifying and analyzing emerging trends

What to do: Explicitly brainstorm ideas about the future and what it might hold.



2 Scanning the Environment

THE PLAYS l 28

Customer Comments

Benefit: Understanding your customers and their experiences is critical to success.

What to do: Solicit feedback from the specific demographics that your organization caters to.

Scanning the Environment l© 2018

THE PLAYS l 29

Customer Lures

Benefit: Test a concept or customer interaction without substantial risk. Look further into the potential success of investing in specific emerging trends.

What to do: For a business, a lure is a prototype that is showcased before a small customer segment to see how they respond before the business invests in a large-scale program or widely distributed product. Design the lure and place it in front of your customers.


THE PLAYS l 30

Customer Focus Groups

Benefit: Gathering intel on individual customers’ experiences is vital. Using a group to facilitate that kind of data mining can be just as fruitful, while also allowing your organization to save time and money by “batching” the intel-gathering effort.

What to do: Invite customers to discuss for an hour.


THE PLAYS l 31

Internet Inspections

Benefit: Accumulate or survey a wide range of views and ideas from many expert sources.

What to do: Monitor the internet for breaking news on key companies and leaders.


THE PLAYS l 32

Judo For Disruptions

What to do: Identify the disruption and look for counter forces. Figure out how you can exploit the disruption.

Scanning the Environment l

Benefit: Most people see disruption as bad news. But choosing to see disruption or a major change as a force to be harnessed actually opens up opportunities. Rather than being forced into a corner, leverage the disruption for your organization’s growth.

© 2018

THE PLAYS l 33

Expert Examinations

What to do: Identify an expert who’s knowledgeable in the space you’re researching.


Benefit: Deep insight into specific information, whether it be an emerging trend or intimidating disruption.

© 2018

THE PLAYS l 34

Shifting Perspectives

What to do: Schedule a day to meet with your senior leadership team and imagine you’re a competitor of your own organization.• Your goal: to sink your business.• Pick out points of organizational weakness.


Benefit: Break through your predisposed biases.

© 2018


3 Connecting The Dots

THE PLAYS l 37

Multiverse Charts

What to do: Identify 3–5 emerging trends you’ve decided have the greatest potential to affect your organization.

Benefit: Make visible the wide spectrum of trends you’ve identified.

Connecting the Dots l© 2018

THE PLAYS l 38

Secondary Impacts

Benefit: Zooming in on secondary impacts will open the door to unique and fruitful territory. This can be the competitive advantage that will propel you to the forefront of your field.

What to do: List your most pronounced emerging trends, working to combine two or more trends into unique opportunities.


THE PLAYS l 39

Connecting The Dots

Resources: More details on these tools are addressed in the book.

Risk and Risk Mitigation: Identify potential threats and evaluate potential impact on your business

Scenario Planning: Visualize your response to those risks

Assigning Key Indicators and Continuous Monitoring: Keep tabs on risk relative to the impact on your business



Forces Responding To Change



Brookstone has filed for bankruptcy for the second time.• It has 137 retail stores, 35 of which are in airports• The mall stores have operated at a loss since 2014—

customers want to save money and time• The airport stores thrive…captive audience with plenty of

time and accustomed to spending premium dollars on everything from water to coffee to neck pillows

• Where is your next airport opportunity?


4 Taking Action

THE PLAYS l 47Taking Action

Taking Action

Agile efforts: Focus on taking action, getting something that works and your customers involved from the startPrototypes of Customer Interactions: Think like the customer when designing products/servicesPilots or Concepts: Track customer interactions with your team


© 2018


5 Measuring Results

THE PLAYS l 52

After-Action Reviews

Measuring Results l

What to do: Immediately after an operation, ask:1. What was supposed to happen?2. What actually happened?3. Why was there a difference between the

two, if any?4. What can we learn from this?

Benefit: Reviewing organization’s successes to learn what works and what doesn’t.

© 2018

THE PLAYS l 53

Measuring Results

Measuring Results l

PLOWS: Plan, Leadership, Obstacles, Weaknesses, StrengthsQuantitative ROI: Gather meaningful metricsQualitative ROI: Stories that tell


© 2018


5 Tips to Succeed at Strategic Foresight

1. Customize these exercises to work for your unique circumstances

2. Tap into PPAI for trends3. This presentation and the Strategic Foresight Playbook were

made for everyone - You’re exactly the same in your uniqueness

4. Don’t be constrained by our approach, create your own audiences in your own universe.

5. Try something, anything – and adjust for better results.


Want More?

Look for this icon to find more strategic foresight guidance from PPAI• Live education• Webinars• Articles in PPB• And more…


Q & A

strategic foresight presentation - ppai home€¦ · corporate think tank benefit: bring together a...

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