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Strategic Development - Methods & Models Study materials The primary method for accessing WBS course materials is online via my.wbs. This content was exported from my.wbs on July 28th 2015 at 02:10 PM. This downloaded content does not include video or audio content. This downloaded content does not include discussion of the materials. Updates and errata for content will be published to my.wbs only, so please be aware that this document may become out of date. Exported on July 28th 2015 at 02:10 PM Warwick Business School Study materials Strategic Development - Methods & Models

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Strategic Development - Methods amp Models Study materials

The primary method for accessing WBS course materials is online via mywbs

This content was exported from mywbs on July 28th 2015 at 0210 PM

This downloaded content does not include video or audio content

This downloaded content does not include discussion of the materials

Updates and errata for content will be published to mywbs only so please beaware that this document may become out of date

Exported on July 28th 2015 at 0210 PM Warwick Business School

Study materials Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

Introduction

Module objectives

The module focuses on the role of models systems and structured methods in supporting corporate strategic planningin organisations

The objectives of this module are to develop

a framework for the strategic planningstrategic development process

an understanding of the methods and models available and their role in supporting the strategic developmentprocess

skills in applying a selection of methods including scenario planning and system modelling

Page 1 of 1 Warwick Business School

Module outline Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

Monday

Monday 5 January 2015

0930-1000 Arrival and coffee

1000-1115 Module introduction A framework for strategic development FOB

1115-1300 Exploring the strategic agenda FOB

1300 Lunch

1400-1530 Setting strategic direction FOB

1530-1600 Break

1600-1730 Implementing performance measurement systems in the strategic development process MK

EVENING Syndicate work Scenario preparation

Sessions will be led by the following faculty members

FOB = Frances OBrienMK = Martin Kunc

Page 1 of 5 Warwick Business School

Programme Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

Tuesday

Tuesday 6 January 2015

0900-1030 Scenario planning Generating scenario factors FOB

1030-1100 Break

1100-1300 Scenario planning Factor reduction FOB

1300 Lunch

1400-1530 Supporting strategy in practice tbc

1530-1600 Break

160-1730 Scenario planning Formulating themes FOB

EVENING Syndicate work Writing scenario narratives

Page 2 of 5 Warwick Business School

Programme Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

Wednesday

Wednesday 7 January 2015

0900-1030 Rehearsing strategy using modelling MK

1030-1100 Break

1100-1300 An introduction to strategic modelling using system dynamics MK

1300 Lunch

1400-1530 Resource mapping MK

1530-1600 Break

1600-1730 Modelling for strategic development Workshop MK

FREE EVENING

Page 3 of 5 Warwick Business School

Programme Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

Thursday

Thursday 8 January 2015

0900-1030 Identifying and mapping resources and capabilities MK

1030-1100 Break

1100-1300 Generating and evaluating strategic options FOB

1300 Lunch

1400-1530 Supporting strategy in practice tbc

1530-1600 Break

1600-1730 Decision and risk analysis for the evaluation of strategic options MK

EVENING Syndicate work presentation preparation

Page 4 of 5 Warwick Business School

Programme Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

Friday

Friday 9 January 2015

0900-1030 Group presentations Scenario planning FOBMK

1030-1100 Break

1100-1200 Group presentations Scenario planning FOBMK

1200-1300 Developing the strategy process FOB

1300-1330Conclusion and module debrief (including assessment guidance and discussion of potentialprojects)

FOB

Page 5 of 5 Warwick Business School

Programme Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

Module assessment

The module will be assessed by 100 coursework

Choose an organisation to work on throughout this assessment either one you currently work for or one with whichyou are familiar

Part A Describe the strategic planningdevelopment process in the organisation (10)

Part B Prepare between two and four scenarios for the organisation Each scenario should be based on amaximum of 12 factors Your report for this section should cover

i The development process a short description of the scenarios developed and a discussion of the keyissues arising during their development (40)

ii The development of strategic initiatives and a recommendation of what strategy should be pursued bythe organisation in the light of the scenarios (10)

iii A brief description of the value of scenario planning to your chosen organisation and how it can beintegrated into the strategic planning development process (10)

Part C Discuss the possible future development of frameworks methods and models (other than scenarioplanning or SWOTTOWS analysis) to support the strategic planningdevelopment process within your chosenorganisation (30)

Evidence of reading relevant literature will influence the marking

Maximum length 3000 words Anything over this limit will not be marked References and appendices are notincluded in the word count

The deadline for submission is 1730 (UK time) on Monday 9 February 2015

The marks for this assignment will be released on Monday 9 March 2015

The submission deadline is precise and uploading of the document must be completed before 1730 (UK time) on thesubmission date Any document submitted even seconds later than 1730 precisely will be penalised for latesubmission in line with WBS policy Please consult your student handbook on mywbs for more detailed information

The online assignment submission system will only accept documents in portable documents format (PDF) filesPlease note that we will not accept PDF files of scanned documents You should create your assignment in yourchosen package (for example Word) then convert it straight to PDF before uploading Please place your student IDnumber NOT YOUR NAME on the front of your submission as all submissions are marked anonymously

All the scripts should also have the following paragraph included on the front page

This is to certify that the work I am submitting is my own All external references andsources are clearly acknowledged and identified within the contents I am aware of theUniversity of Warwick regulation concerning plagiarism and collusion

No substantial part(s) of the work submitted here has also been submitted by me in otherassessments for accredited courses of study and I acknowledge that if this has been donean appropriate reduction in the mark I might otherwise have received will be made

PLEASE ENSURE YOU KEEP A SECURITY COPY OF YOUR ASSESSMENT

Page 1 of 1 Warwick Business School

Assessment Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

Teaching faculty

Frances OBrien (Module Organiser) - Associate Professor of Operational ResearchWBS

Frances OBriens research interests include the development and use of approaches tosupport strategy development in particular scenario planning and visioningmethodologies and the practice of combining OR and strategy tools by managementteams She holds a BSc (Joint Honours) in Mathematics and Classical Studies from SurreyUniversity and an MSc in Operational Research from Southampton University Shepreviously worked for the Operational Research Group of Ford of Europe as a consultantproviding modelling support on simulation manpower planning and allocation studies Sheis an active member of the UK Operational Research Society for which she chairs the ORand Strategy Special Interest Group

Martin Kunc - Associate Professor of Management Sciences WBS

Martin holds a PhD in Decision Science from London Business School He previouslyworked for Arthur Andersen and Chilean business schools He is a member of the GeneralCouncil of the UK Operational Research Society His research interests include the use ofmodelling to support strategy development in particular strategic decision-making supplychain design and human resource planning and the role of managerial cognition on theprocess of decision making especially in the area of complex decision-making Martin hasconducted consultancy and research projects for several organisations includingMasterfoods Standard amp Poors Lafarge and Warwickshire County Council

Page 1 of 1 Warwick Business School

Teaching Faculty Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

Readings

The textbook provided for the week is

OBrien FA and Dyson RG (2007) Supporting Strategy Frameworks Methods and ModelsChichester Wiley

Pre-readings are included in the online materials you should read these in advance of the session to which theyrelate Unless specified you should treat ALL case studies as required pre-reading Completing as much of thepre-reading as possible before you attend will provide you with a wider understanding of the topics to be discussedduring the module and therefore enhance your contribution to the class

Case study advice

Any case studies for this module purchased from the Case Centre are provided for your personal use on this modulefor which you are registered You may download and print one copy for your personal use

The case studies will expire on 9 February 2015 and will not be available to you after this We recommend that youdownload any cases immediately When you have taken your copy of a case study you may not make further copiesshare them with or sell the materials to any other person or use them for any purpose not connected with your studiesfor this MBA module Failure to follow these terms and conditions of use may result in disciplinary action

Page 1 of 11 Warwick Business School

Readings Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

Monday readings

Monday 5 January 2015

Preparation for exploring strategic agenda

Pre-reading OBrien and Dyson Chapter 3

Preparation for strategic direction

Pre-reading OBrien and Dyson Chapter 2

Collins JC and Porras JI (1996)Building Your Companys VisionHarvard Business Review September-O ctober pp 65-77To download this article click on the link above and search for the following term AN9609167704

OConnell D Hickerson K and Pillutla A (2011)Organizational Visioning An Integrative ReviewGroup and Organization Management 36 1 pp 103-25

Preparation for performance measurement

Pre-reading OBrien and Dyson Chapter 11

Kaplan SR and Norton DP (1996)Using the Balanced Scorecard as a Strategic Management SystemHarvard Business Review January-February pp 75-85To download this article click on the link above and search for the following term AN9601185348

Page 2 of 11 Warwick Business School

Readings Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

Tuesday readings

Tuesday 6 January 2015

Preparation for scenario planning

Pre-reading OBrien and Dyson Chapter 9

Yeoman I and Greenwood C (2006)From Fast Food to Slow Food The Prospects for Scotlands Cuisine to 2015Tomorrows World Consumer and Tourist 2 3

Page 3 of 11 Warwick Business School

Readings Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

Wednesday readings

Wednesday 7 January 2015

Preparation for rehearsing strategy with modelling

Pre-reading OBrien and Dyson Chapter 7

Senge P (1992)A shift of Mindin The Fifth DisciplineLondon Random House Business

Case study People Express (Ref 9-483-103)

Preparation for modelling for strategic development

Pre-reading Morecroft J (2007)Managing Business Growthin Strategic Modelling and Business Dynamics A Feedback Systems ApproachChichester Wiley

Page 4 of 11 Warwick Business School

Readings Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

Thursday readings

Thursday 8 January 2015

Preparation for generating strategy

Pre-reading OBrien and Dyson Chapters 6 and 9

Preparation for decision and risk analysis

Pre-reading OBrien and Dyson Chapter 10

Page 5 of 11 Warwick Business School

Readings Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

Friday readings

Friday 9 January 2015

There are no readings for this day

Page 6 of 11 Warwick Business School

Readings Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

Preparation for syndicate group work

IN ADDITION you have been put into a syndicate group with a number of other people Each group has beenallocated a company for which you will undertake a scenario planning exercise as follows

Page 7 of 11 Warwick Business School

Readings Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

Page 8 of 11 Warwick Business School

Readings Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

Page 9 of 11 Warwick Business School

Readings Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

Group 7 (A209) - Age NI

Marcus Tyrberg

Steven Vallender

Tapfuma Vazhure

Stuart Walker

David Willetts

Aghiad Yabroudi

Each person in the group should access information for their organisation (such as an annual report if one exists) viathe companys website You need to have read this and done some further research (see suggestions below) beforearrival as you will be working on scenarios for these organisations in exercises throughout the week starting on thefirst day

Your further research should help you gain an understanding of the organisation and the industry within which itoperates in terms of past events current policiestrends and future developmentsuncertainties You will be asked topool your findings from your own and the supplied material with the other members of your syndicate group You mayfind the following questions useful

What planning horizon is your organisation likely to use for strategy development

What are the key issuesconcerns currently affecting your organisation

Who are your organisations key competitors Check their websites

Who are the key stakeholders for your organisation

What is your organisations visionmission statement Check the website

Over the past 10 years has your organisation experienced change What have been the drivers of thischange

Useful websites

Good sources of information include annual reports analyst reports newspapers and journals such as the FinancialTimes and the Economist as well as industry reports I would encourage you to make use of the Internet whatfollows is a non-exhaustive list of useful websites

httpwwwshellcomhomecontentfuture_energyscenarios

Its well worth visiting this site as much of the practice and literature on scenarios has a basis in theShell experience of scenario planning This particular page provides an introduction to scenariosincluding Shells current New lens Scenarios to 2100 Theres also a video of Shells scenarios as wellas archive material of previous scenario exercises

wwwwfsorg

World Future Society a non-profit educational and scientific organisation for those interested in futuresstudies

Check the variety of on-line resources available - different futures thinkers - The Futurist magazine etc

httpnewoptimistscomthe-forumscenario-planning

Website describing the New Optimists experiences developing scenarios about the future of FoodSupply within the West Midlands over the next 50 years Have a look at their scenario wildcards section

Page 10 of 11 Warwick Business School

Readings Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

httpwwwbisgovukforesightabout-us

The following quote is taken from their website and gives a good summary of what theyre about andwhat you will find on the site

Since its creation in 1994 the Foresight Programme has helped the UKGovernment to think systematically about the future We advise government abouthow to ensure todays decisions are robust to future uncertainties By combining thelatest science and evidence with futures analysis we help policy makers tacklecomplex issues with a better understanding of the potential opportunities andchallenges that lie ahead

We do this in three ways

Major Foresight Projects in-depth two-year studies which build acomprehensive evidence base on major issues looking 20-80 years into thefuture

Policy Futures Projects shorter projects which provide futures andevidence analysis to fill a specific gap in existing policy understanding

The Foresight Horizon Scanning Centre training toolkits and networks tostrengthen futures thinking capacity and share best practice within andacross government

Our work is used to stimulate and inform the development of more effectivestrategies policies and priorities at national and international levels

Foresight is headed by Professor Sir Mark Walport the Government ChiefScientific Adviser who reports directly to the Prime Minister and Cabinet It is a partof the Government Office for Science within the Department for BusinessInnovation amp Skills

Accessed (190913)

wwwplausiblecustompublishcom

Norwegian consultancy for futures studies and scenario based strategic planning established in the1990s as an experiment in internet based research

Interesting reading on a variety of topics This year artificial cells self-driving cars etc

Mintel - accessed via Warwick Library Website

This is a useful site for reports concerning for example the future

Page 11 of 11 Warwick Business School

Readings Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

  • Download Details
  • Introduction
  • Monday
  • Tuesday
  • Wednesday
  • Thursday
  • Friday
  • Module assessment
  • Teaching faculty
  • Readings
  • Monday readings
  • Tuesday readings
  • Wednesday readings
  • Thursday readings
  • Friday readings
  • Preparation for syndicate group work

Introduction

Module objectives

The module focuses on the role of models systems and structured methods in supporting corporate strategic planningin organisations

The objectives of this module are to develop

a framework for the strategic planningstrategic development process

an understanding of the methods and models available and their role in supporting the strategic developmentprocess

skills in applying a selection of methods including scenario planning and system modelling

Page 1 of 1 Warwick Business School

Module outline Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

Monday

Monday 5 January 2015

0930-1000 Arrival and coffee

1000-1115 Module introduction A framework for strategic development FOB

1115-1300 Exploring the strategic agenda FOB

1300 Lunch

1400-1530 Setting strategic direction FOB

1530-1600 Break

1600-1730 Implementing performance measurement systems in the strategic development process MK

EVENING Syndicate work Scenario preparation

Sessions will be led by the following faculty members

FOB = Frances OBrienMK = Martin Kunc

Page 1 of 5 Warwick Business School

Programme Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

Tuesday

Tuesday 6 January 2015

0900-1030 Scenario planning Generating scenario factors FOB

1030-1100 Break

1100-1300 Scenario planning Factor reduction FOB

1300 Lunch

1400-1530 Supporting strategy in practice tbc

1530-1600 Break

160-1730 Scenario planning Formulating themes FOB

EVENING Syndicate work Writing scenario narratives

Page 2 of 5 Warwick Business School

Programme Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

Wednesday

Wednesday 7 January 2015

0900-1030 Rehearsing strategy using modelling MK

1030-1100 Break

1100-1300 An introduction to strategic modelling using system dynamics MK

1300 Lunch

1400-1530 Resource mapping MK

1530-1600 Break

1600-1730 Modelling for strategic development Workshop MK

FREE EVENING

Page 3 of 5 Warwick Business School

Programme Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

Thursday

Thursday 8 January 2015

0900-1030 Identifying and mapping resources and capabilities MK

1030-1100 Break

1100-1300 Generating and evaluating strategic options FOB

1300 Lunch

1400-1530 Supporting strategy in practice tbc

1530-1600 Break

1600-1730 Decision and risk analysis for the evaluation of strategic options MK

EVENING Syndicate work presentation preparation

Page 4 of 5 Warwick Business School

Programme Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

Friday

Friday 9 January 2015

0900-1030 Group presentations Scenario planning FOBMK

1030-1100 Break

1100-1200 Group presentations Scenario planning FOBMK

1200-1300 Developing the strategy process FOB

1300-1330Conclusion and module debrief (including assessment guidance and discussion of potentialprojects)

FOB

Page 5 of 5 Warwick Business School

Programme Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

Module assessment

The module will be assessed by 100 coursework

Choose an organisation to work on throughout this assessment either one you currently work for or one with whichyou are familiar

Part A Describe the strategic planningdevelopment process in the organisation (10)

Part B Prepare between two and four scenarios for the organisation Each scenario should be based on amaximum of 12 factors Your report for this section should cover

i The development process a short description of the scenarios developed and a discussion of the keyissues arising during their development (40)

ii The development of strategic initiatives and a recommendation of what strategy should be pursued bythe organisation in the light of the scenarios (10)

iii A brief description of the value of scenario planning to your chosen organisation and how it can beintegrated into the strategic planning development process (10)

Part C Discuss the possible future development of frameworks methods and models (other than scenarioplanning or SWOTTOWS analysis) to support the strategic planningdevelopment process within your chosenorganisation (30)

Evidence of reading relevant literature will influence the marking

Maximum length 3000 words Anything over this limit will not be marked References and appendices are notincluded in the word count

The deadline for submission is 1730 (UK time) on Monday 9 February 2015

The marks for this assignment will be released on Monday 9 March 2015

The submission deadline is precise and uploading of the document must be completed before 1730 (UK time) on thesubmission date Any document submitted even seconds later than 1730 precisely will be penalised for latesubmission in line with WBS policy Please consult your student handbook on mywbs for more detailed information

The online assignment submission system will only accept documents in portable documents format (PDF) filesPlease note that we will not accept PDF files of scanned documents You should create your assignment in yourchosen package (for example Word) then convert it straight to PDF before uploading Please place your student IDnumber NOT YOUR NAME on the front of your submission as all submissions are marked anonymously

All the scripts should also have the following paragraph included on the front page

This is to certify that the work I am submitting is my own All external references andsources are clearly acknowledged and identified within the contents I am aware of theUniversity of Warwick regulation concerning plagiarism and collusion

No substantial part(s) of the work submitted here has also been submitted by me in otherassessments for accredited courses of study and I acknowledge that if this has been donean appropriate reduction in the mark I might otherwise have received will be made

PLEASE ENSURE YOU KEEP A SECURITY COPY OF YOUR ASSESSMENT

Page 1 of 1 Warwick Business School

Assessment Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

Teaching faculty

Frances OBrien (Module Organiser) - Associate Professor of Operational ResearchWBS

Frances OBriens research interests include the development and use of approaches tosupport strategy development in particular scenario planning and visioningmethodologies and the practice of combining OR and strategy tools by managementteams She holds a BSc (Joint Honours) in Mathematics and Classical Studies from SurreyUniversity and an MSc in Operational Research from Southampton University Shepreviously worked for the Operational Research Group of Ford of Europe as a consultantproviding modelling support on simulation manpower planning and allocation studies Sheis an active member of the UK Operational Research Society for which she chairs the ORand Strategy Special Interest Group

Martin Kunc - Associate Professor of Management Sciences WBS

Martin holds a PhD in Decision Science from London Business School He previouslyworked for Arthur Andersen and Chilean business schools He is a member of the GeneralCouncil of the UK Operational Research Society His research interests include the use ofmodelling to support strategy development in particular strategic decision-making supplychain design and human resource planning and the role of managerial cognition on theprocess of decision making especially in the area of complex decision-making Martin hasconducted consultancy and research projects for several organisations includingMasterfoods Standard amp Poors Lafarge and Warwickshire County Council

Page 1 of 1 Warwick Business School

Teaching Faculty Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

Readings

The textbook provided for the week is

OBrien FA and Dyson RG (2007) Supporting Strategy Frameworks Methods and ModelsChichester Wiley

Pre-readings are included in the online materials you should read these in advance of the session to which theyrelate Unless specified you should treat ALL case studies as required pre-reading Completing as much of thepre-reading as possible before you attend will provide you with a wider understanding of the topics to be discussedduring the module and therefore enhance your contribution to the class

Case study advice

Any case studies for this module purchased from the Case Centre are provided for your personal use on this modulefor which you are registered You may download and print one copy for your personal use

The case studies will expire on 9 February 2015 and will not be available to you after this We recommend that youdownload any cases immediately When you have taken your copy of a case study you may not make further copiesshare them with or sell the materials to any other person or use them for any purpose not connected with your studiesfor this MBA module Failure to follow these terms and conditions of use may result in disciplinary action

Page 1 of 11 Warwick Business School

Readings Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

Monday readings

Monday 5 January 2015

Preparation for exploring strategic agenda

Pre-reading OBrien and Dyson Chapter 3

Preparation for strategic direction

Pre-reading OBrien and Dyson Chapter 2

Collins JC and Porras JI (1996)Building Your Companys VisionHarvard Business Review September-O ctober pp 65-77To download this article click on the link above and search for the following term AN9609167704

OConnell D Hickerson K and Pillutla A (2011)Organizational Visioning An Integrative ReviewGroup and Organization Management 36 1 pp 103-25

Preparation for performance measurement

Pre-reading OBrien and Dyson Chapter 11

Kaplan SR and Norton DP (1996)Using the Balanced Scorecard as a Strategic Management SystemHarvard Business Review January-February pp 75-85To download this article click on the link above and search for the following term AN9601185348

Page 2 of 11 Warwick Business School

Readings Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

Tuesday readings

Tuesday 6 January 2015

Preparation for scenario planning

Pre-reading OBrien and Dyson Chapter 9

Yeoman I and Greenwood C (2006)From Fast Food to Slow Food The Prospects for Scotlands Cuisine to 2015Tomorrows World Consumer and Tourist 2 3

Page 3 of 11 Warwick Business School

Readings Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

Wednesday readings

Wednesday 7 January 2015

Preparation for rehearsing strategy with modelling

Pre-reading OBrien and Dyson Chapter 7

Senge P (1992)A shift of Mindin The Fifth DisciplineLondon Random House Business

Case study People Express (Ref 9-483-103)

Preparation for modelling for strategic development

Pre-reading Morecroft J (2007)Managing Business Growthin Strategic Modelling and Business Dynamics A Feedback Systems ApproachChichester Wiley

Page 4 of 11 Warwick Business School

Readings Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

Thursday readings

Thursday 8 January 2015

Preparation for generating strategy

Pre-reading OBrien and Dyson Chapters 6 and 9

Preparation for decision and risk analysis

Pre-reading OBrien and Dyson Chapter 10

Page 5 of 11 Warwick Business School

Readings Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

Friday readings

Friday 9 January 2015

There are no readings for this day

Page 6 of 11 Warwick Business School

Readings Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

Preparation for syndicate group work

IN ADDITION you have been put into a syndicate group with a number of other people Each group has beenallocated a company for which you will undertake a scenario planning exercise as follows

Page 7 of 11 Warwick Business School

Readings Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

Page 8 of 11 Warwick Business School

Readings Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

Page 9 of 11 Warwick Business School

Readings Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

Group 7 (A209) - Age NI

Marcus Tyrberg

Steven Vallender

Tapfuma Vazhure

Stuart Walker

David Willetts

Aghiad Yabroudi

Each person in the group should access information for their organisation (such as an annual report if one exists) viathe companys website You need to have read this and done some further research (see suggestions below) beforearrival as you will be working on scenarios for these organisations in exercises throughout the week starting on thefirst day

Your further research should help you gain an understanding of the organisation and the industry within which itoperates in terms of past events current policiestrends and future developmentsuncertainties You will be asked topool your findings from your own and the supplied material with the other members of your syndicate group You mayfind the following questions useful

What planning horizon is your organisation likely to use for strategy development

What are the key issuesconcerns currently affecting your organisation

Who are your organisations key competitors Check their websites

Who are the key stakeholders for your organisation

What is your organisations visionmission statement Check the website

Over the past 10 years has your organisation experienced change What have been the drivers of thischange

Useful websites

Good sources of information include annual reports analyst reports newspapers and journals such as the FinancialTimes and the Economist as well as industry reports I would encourage you to make use of the Internet whatfollows is a non-exhaustive list of useful websites

httpwwwshellcomhomecontentfuture_energyscenarios

Its well worth visiting this site as much of the practice and literature on scenarios has a basis in theShell experience of scenario planning This particular page provides an introduction to scenariosincluding Shells current New lens Scenarios to 2100 Theres also a video of Shells scenarios as wellas archive material of previous scenario exercises

wwwwfsorg

World Future Society a non-profit educational and scientific organisation for those interested in futuresstudies

Check the variety of on-line resources available - different futures thinkers - The Futurist magazine etc

httpnewoptimistscomthe-forumscenario-planning

Website describing the New Optimists experiences developing scenarios about the future of FoodSupply within the West Midlands over the next 50 years Have a look at their scenario wildcards section

Page 10 of 11 Warwick Business School

Readings Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

httpwwwbisgovukforesightabout-us

The following quote is taken from their website and gives a good summary of what theyre about andwhat you will find on the site

Since its creation in 1994 the Foresight Programme has helped the UKGovernment to think systematically about the future We advise government abouthow to ensure todays decisions are robust to future uncertainties By combining thelatest science and evidence with futures analysis we help policy makers tacklecomplex issues with a better understanding of the potential opportunities andchallenges that lie ahead

We do this in three ways

Major Foresight Projects in-depth two-year studies which build acomprehensive evidence base on major issues looking 20-80 years into thefuture

Policy Futures Projects shorter projects which provide futures andevidence analysis to fill a specific gap in existing policy understanding

The Foresight Horizon Scanning Centre training toolkits and networks tostrengthen futures thinking capacity and share best practice within andacross government

Our work is used to stimulate and inform the development of more effectivestrategies policies and priorities at national and international levels

Foresight is headed by Professor Sir Mark Walport the Government ChiefScientific Adviser who reports directly to the Prime Minister and Cabinet It is a partof the Government Office for Science within the Department for BusinessInnovation amp Skills

Accessed (190913)

wwwplausiblecustompublishcom

Norwegian consultancy for futures studies and scenario based strategic planning established in the1990s as an experiment in internet based research

Interesting reading on a variety of topics This year artificial cells self-driving cars etc

Mintel - accessed via Warwick Library Website

This is a useful site for reports concerning for example the future

Page 11 of 11 Warwick Business School

Readings Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

  • Download Details
  • Introduction
  • Monday
  • Tuesday
  • Wednesday
  • Thursday
  • Friday
  • Module assessment
  • Teaching faculty
  • Readings
  • Monday readings
  • Tuesday readings
  • Wednesday readings
  • Thursday readings
  • Friday readings
  • Preparation for syndicate group work

Monday

Monday 5 January 2015

0930-1000 Arrival and coffee

1000-1115 Module introduction A framework for strategic development FOB

1115-1300 Exploring the strategic agenda FOB

1300 Lunch

1400-1530 Setting strategic direction FOB

1530-1600 Break

1600-1730 Implementing performance measurement systems in the strategic development process MK

EVENING Syndicate work Scenario preparation

Sessions will be led by the following faculty members

FOB = Frances OBrienMK = Martin Kunc

Page 1 of 5 Warwick Business School

Programme Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

Tuesday

Tuesday 6 January 2015

0900-1030 Scenario planning Generating scenario factors FOB

1030-1100 Break

1100-1300 Scenario planning Factor reduction FOB

1300 Lunch

1400-1530 Supporting strategy in practice tbc

1530-1600 Break

160-1730 Scenario planning Formulating themes FOB

EVENING Syndicate work Writing scenario narratives

Page 2 of 5 Warwick Business School

Programme Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

Wednesday

Wednesday 7 January 2015

0900-1030 Rehearsing strategy using modelling MK

1030-1100 Break

1100-1300 An introduction to strategic modelling using system dynamics MK

1300 Lunch

1400-1530 Resource mapping MK

1530-1600 Break

1600-1730 Modelling for strategic development Workshop MK

FREE EVENING

Page 3 of 5 Warwick Business School

Programme Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

Thursday

Thursday 8 January 2015

0900-1030 Identifying and mapping resources and capabilities MK

1030-1100 Break

1100-1300 Generating and evaluating strategic options FOB

1300 Lunch

1400-1530 Supporting strategy in practice tbc

1530-1600 Break

1600-1730 Decision and risk analysis for the evaluation of strategic options MK

EVENING Syndicate work presentation preparation

Page 4 of 5 Warwick Business School

Programme Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

Friday

Friday 9 January 2015

0900-1030 Group presentations Scenario planning FOBMK

1030-1100 Break

1100-1200 Group presentations Scenario planning FOBMK

1200-1300 Developing the strategy process FOB

1300-1330Conclusion and module debrief (including assessment guidance and discussion of potentialprojects)

FOB

Page 5 of 5 Warwick Business School

Programme Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

Module assessment

The module will be assessed by 100 coursework

Choose an organisation to work on throughout this assessment either one you currently work for or one with whichyou are familiar

Part A Describe the strategic planningdevelopment process in the organisation (10)

Part B Prepare between two and four scenarios for the organisation Each scenario should be based on amaximum of 12 factors Your report for this section should cover

i The development process a short description of the scenarios developed and a discussion of the keyissues arising during their development (40)

ii The development of strategic initiatives and a recommendation of what strategy should be pursued bythe organisation in the light of the scenarios (10)

iii A brief description of the value of scenario planning to your chosen organisation and how it can beintegrated into the strategic planning development process (10)

Part C Discuss the possible future development of frameworks methods and models (other than scenarioplanning or SWOTTOWS analysis) to support the strategic planningdevelopment process within your chosenorganisation (30)

Evidence of reading relevant literature will influence the marking

Maximum length 3000 words Anything over this limit will not be marked References and appendices are notincluded in the word count

The deadline for submission is 1730 (UK time) on Monday 9 February 2015

The marks for this assignment will be released on Monday 9 March 2015

The submission deadline is precise and uploading of the document must be completed before 1730 (UK time) on thesubmission date Any document submitted even seconds later than 1730 precisely will be penalised for latesubmission in line with WBS policy Please consult your student handbook on mywbs for more detailed information

The online assignment submission system will only accept documents in portable documents format (PDF) filesPlease note that we will not accept PDF files of scanned documents You should create your assignment in yourchosen package (for example Word) then convert it straight to PDF before uploading Please place your student IDnumber NOT YOUR NAME on the front of your submission as all submissions are marked anonymously

All the scripts should also have the following paragraph included on the front page

This is to certify that the work I am submitting is my own All external references andsources are clearly acknowledged and identified within the contents I am aware of theUniversity of Warwick regulation concerning plagiarism and collusion

No substantial part(s) of the work submitted here has also been submitted by me in otherassessments for accredited courses of study and I acknowledge that if this has been donean appropriate reduction in the mark I might otherwise have received will be made

PLEASE ENSURE YOU KEEP A SECURITY COPY OF YOUR ASSESSMENT

Page 1 of 1 Warwick Business School

Assessment Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

Teaching faculty

Frances OBrien (Module Organiser) - Associate Professor of Operational ResearchWBS

Frances OBriens research interests include the development and use of approaches tosupport strategy development in particular scenario planning and visioningmethodologies and the practice of combining OR and strategy tools by managementteams She holds a BSc (Joint Honours) in Mathematics and Classical Studies from SurreyUniversity and an MSc in Operational Research from Southampton University Shepreviously worked for the Operational Research Group of Ford of Europe as a consultantproviding modelling support on simulation manpower planning and allocation studies Sheis an active member of the UK Operational Research Society for which she chairs the ORand Strategy Special Interest Group

Martin Kunc - Associate Professor of Management Sciences WBS

Martin holds a PhD in Decision Science from London Business School He previouslyworked for Arthur Andersen and Chilean business schools He is a member of the GeneralCouncil of the UK Operational Research Society His research interests include the use ofmodelling to support strategy development in particular strategic decision-making supplychain design and human resource planning and the role of managerial cognition on theprocess of decision making especially in the area of complex decision-making Martin hasconducted consultancy and research projects for several organisations includingMasterfoods Standard amp Poors Lafarge and Warwickshire County Council

Page 1 of 1 Warwick Business School

Teaching Faculty Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

Readings

The textbook provided for the week is

OBrien FA and Dyson RG (2007) Supporting Strategy Frameworks Methods and ModelsChichester Wiley

Pre-readings are included in the online materials you should read these in advance of the session to which theyrelate Unless specified you should treat ALL case studies as required pre-reading Completing as much of thepre-reading as possible before you attend will provide you with a wider understanding of the topics to be discussedduring the module and therefore enhance your contribution to the class

Case study advice

Any case studies for this module purchased from the Case Centre are provided for your personal use on this modulefor which you are registered You may download and print one copy for your personal use

The case studies will expire on 9 February 2015 and will not be available to you after this We recommend that youdownload any cases immediately When you have taken your copy of a case study you may not make further copiesshare them with or sell the materials to any other person or use them for any purpose not connected with your studiesfor this MBA module Failure to follow these terms and conditions of use may result in disciplinary action

Page 1 of 11 Warwick Business School

Readings Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

Monday readings

Monday 5 January 2015

Preparation for exploring strategic agenda

Pre-reading OBrien and Dyson Chapter 3

Preparation for strategic direction

Pre-reading OBrien and Dyson Chapter 2

Collins JC and Porras JI (1996)Building Your Companys VisionHarvard Business Review September-O ctober pp 65-77To download this article click on the link above and search for the following term AN9609167704

OConnell D Hickerson K and Pillutla A (2011)Organizational Visioning An Integrative ReviewGroup and Organization Management 36 1 pp 103-25

Preparation for performance measurement

Pre-reading OBrien and Dyson Chapter 11

Kaplan SR and Norton DP (1996)Using the Balanced Scorecard as a Strategic Management SystemHarvard Business Review January-February pp 75-85To download this article click on the link above and search for the following term AN9601185348

Page 2 of 11 Warwick Business School

Readings Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

Tuesday readings

Tuesday 6 January 2015

Preparation for scenario planning

Pre-reading OBrien and Dyson Chapter 9

Yeoman I and Greenwood C (2006)From Fast Food to Slow Food The Prospects for Scotlands Cuisine to 2015Tomorrows World Consumer and Tourist 2 3

Page 3 of 11 Warwick Business School

Readings Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

Wednesday readings

Wednesday 7 January 2015

Preparation for rehearsing strategy with modelling

Pre-reading OBrien and Dyson Chapter 7

Senge P (1992)A shift of Mindin The Fifth DisciplineLondon Random House Business

Case study People Express (Ref 9-483-103)

Preparation for modelling for strategic development

Pre-reading Morecroft J (2007)Managing Business Growthin Strategic Modelling and Business Dynamics A Feedback Systems ApproachChichester Wiley

Page 4 of 11 Warwick Business School

Readings Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

Thursday readings

Thursday 8 January 2015

Preparation for generating strategy

Pre-reading OBrien and Dyson Chapters 6 and 9

Preparation for decision and risk analysis

Pre-reading OBrien and Dyson Chapter 10

Page 5 of 11 Warwick Business School

Readings Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

Friday readings

Friday 9 January 2015

There are no readings for this day

Page 6 of 11 Warwick Business School

Readings Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

Preparation for syndicate group work

IN ADDITION you have been put into a syndicate group with a number of other people Each group has beenallocated a company for which you will undertake a scenario planning exercise as follows

Page 7 of 11 Warwick Business School

Readings Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

Page 8 of 11 Warwick Business School

Readings Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

Page 9 of 11 Warwick Business School

Readings Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

Group 7 (A209) - Age NI

Marcus Tyrberg

Steven Vallender

Tapfuma Vazhure

Stuart Walker

David Willetts

Aghiad Yabroudi

Each person in the group should access information for their organisation (such as an annual report if one exists) viathe companys website You need to have read this and done some further research (see suggestions below) beforearrival as you will be working on scenarios for these organisations in exercises throughout the week starting on thefirst day

Your further research should help you gain an understanding of the organisation and the industry within which itoperates in terms of past events current policiestrends and future developmentsuncertainties You will be asked topool your findings from your own and the supplied material with the other members of your syndicate group You mayfind the following questions useful

What planning horizon is your organisation likely to use for strategy development

What are the key issuesconcerns currently affecting your organisation

Who are your organisations key competitors Check their websites

Who are the key stakeholders for your organisation

What is your organisations visionmission statement Check the website

Over the past 10 years has your organisation experienced change What have been the drivers of thischange

Useful websites

Good sources of information include annual reports analyst reports newspapers and journals such as the FinancialTimes and the Economist as well as industry reports I would encourage you to make use of the Internet whatfollows is a non-exhaustive list of useful websites

httpwwwshellcomhomecontentfuture_energyscenarios

Its well worth visiting this site as much of the practice and literature on scenarios has a basis in theShell experience of scenario planning This particular page provides an introduction to scenariosincluding Shells current New lens Scenarios to 2100 Theres also a video of Shells scenarios as wellas archive material of previous scenario exercises

wwwwfsorg

World Future Society a non-profit educational and scientific organisation for those interested in futuresstudies

Check the variety of on-line resources available - different futures thinkers - The Futurist magazine etc

httpnewoptimistscomthe-forumscenario-planning

Website describing the New Optimists experiences developing scenarios about the future of FoodSupply within the West Midlands over the next 50 years Have a look at their scenario wildcards section

Page 10 of 11 Warwick Business School

Readings Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

httpwwwbisgovukforesightabout-us

The following quote is taken from their website and gives a good summary of what theyre about andwhat you will find on the site

Since its creation in 1994 the Foresight Programme has helped the UKGovernment to think systematically about the future We advise government abouthow to ensure todays decisions are robust to future uncertainties By combining thelatest science and evidence with futures analysis we help policy makers tacklecomplex issues with a better understanding of the potential opportunities andchallenges that lie ahead

We do this in three ways

Major Foresight Projects in-depth two-year studies which build acomprehensive evidence base on major issues looking 20-80 years into thefuture

Policy Futures Projects shorter projects which provide futures andevidence analysis to fill a specific gap in existing policy understanding

The Foresight Horizon Scanning Centre training toolkits and networks tostrengthen futures thinking capacity and share best practice within andacross government

Our work is used to stimulate and inform the development of more effectivestrategies policies and priorities at national and international levels

Foresight is headed by Professor Sir Mark Walport the Government ChiefScientific Adviser who reports directly to the Prime Minister and Cabinet It is a partof the Government Office for Science within the Department for BusinessInnovation amp Skills

Accessed (190913)

wwwplausiblecustompublishcom

Norwegian consultancy for futures studies and scenario based strategic planning established in the1990s as an experiment in internet based research

Interesting reading on a variety of topics This year artificial cells self-driving cars etc

Mintel - accessed via Warwick Library Website

This is a useful site for reports concerning for example the future

Page 11 of 11 Warwick Business School

Readings Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

  • Download Details
  • Introduction
  • Monday
  • Tuesday
  • Wednesday
  • Thursday
  • Friday
  • Module assessment
  • Teaching faculty
  • Readings
  • Monday readings
  • Tuesday readings
  • Wednesday readings
  • Thursday readings
  • Friday readings
  • Preparation for syndicate group work

Tuesday

Tuesday 6 January 2015

0900-1030 Scenario planning Generating scenario factors FOB

1030-1100 Break

1100-1300 Scenario planning Factor reduction FOB

1300 Lunch

1400-1530 Supporting strategy in practice tbc

1530-1600 Break

160-1730 Scenario planning Formulating themes FOB

EVENING Syndicate work Writing scenario narratives

Page 2 of 5 Warwick Business School

Programme Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

Wednesday

Wednesday 7 January 2015

0900-1030 Rehearsing strategy using modelling MK

1030-1100 Break

1100-1300 An introduction to strategic modelling using system dynamics MK

1300 Lunch

1400-1530 Resource mapping MK

1530-1600 Break

1600-1730 Modelling for strategic development Workshop MK

FREE EVENING

Page 3 of 5 Warwick Business School

Programme Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

Thursday

Thursday 8 January 2015

0900-1030 Identifying and mapping resources and capabilities MK

1030-1100 Break

1100-1300 Generating and evaluating strategic options FOB

1300 Lunch

1400-1530 Supporting strategy in practice tbc

1530-1600 Break

1600-1730 Decision and risk analysis for the evaluation of strategic options MK

EVENING Syndicate work presentation preparation

Page 4 of 5 Warwick Business School

Programme Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

Friday

Friday 9 January 2015

0900-1030 Group presentations Scenario planning FOBMK

1030-1100 Break

1100-1200 Group presentations Scenario planning FOBMK

1200-1300 Developing the strategy process FOB

1300-1330Conclusion and module debrief (including assessment guidance and discussion of potentialprojects)

FOB

Page 5 of 5 Warwick Business School

Programme Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

Module assessment

The module will be assessed by 100 coursework

Choose an organisation to work on throughout this assessment either one you currently work for or one with whichyou are familiar

Part A Describe the strategic planningdevelopment process in the organisation (10)

Part B Prepare between two and four scenarios for the organisation Each scenario should be based on amaximum of 12 factors Your report for this section should cover

i The development process a short description of the scenarios developed and a discussion of the keyissues arising during their development (40)

ii The development of strategic initiatives and a recommendation of what strategy should be pursued bythe organisation in the light of the scenarios (10)

iii A brief description of the value of scenario planning to your chosen organisation and how it can beintegrated into the strategic planning development process (10)

Part C Discuss the possible future development of frameworks methods and models (other than scenarioplanning or SWOTTOWS analysis) to support the strategic planningdevelopment process within your chosenorganisation (30)

Evidence of reading relevant literature will influence the marking

Maximum length 3000 words Anything over this limit will not be marked References and appendices are notincluded in the word count

The deadline for submission is 1730 (UK time) on Monday 9 February 2015

The marks for this assignment will be released on Monday 9 March 2015

The submission deadline is precise and uploading of the document must be completed before 1730 (UK time) on thesubmission date Any document submitted even seconds later than 1730 precisely will be penalised for latesubmission in line with WBS policy Please consult your student handbook on mywbs for more detailed information

The online assignment submission system will only accept documents in portable documents format (PDF) filesPlease note that we will not accept PDF files of scanned documents You should create your assignment in yourchosen package (for example Word) then convert it straight to PDF before uploading Please place your student IDnumber NOT YOUR NAME on the front of your submission as all submissions are marked anonymously

All the scripts should also have the following paragraph included on the front page

This is to certify that the work I am submitting is my own All external references andsources are clearly acknowledged and identified within the contents I am aware of theUniversity of Warwick regulation concerning plagiarism and collusion

No substantial part(s) of the work submitted here has also been submitted by me in otherassessments for accredited courses of study and I acknowledge that if this has been donean appropriate reduction in the mark I might otherwise have received will be made

PLEASE ENSURE YOU KEEP A SECURITY COPY OF YOUR ASSESSMENT

Page 1 of 1 Warwick Business School

Assessment Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

Teaching faculty

Frances OBrien (Module Organiser) - Associate Professor of Operational ResearchWBS

Frances OBriens research interests include the development and use of approaches tosupport strategy development in particular scenario planning and visioningmethodologies and the practice of combining OR and strategy tools by managementteams She holds a BSc (Joint Honours) in Mathematics and Classical Studies from SurreyUniversity and an MSc in Operational Research from Southampton University Shepreviously worked for the Operational Research Group of Ford of Europe as a consultantproviding modelling support on simulation manpower planning and allocation studies Sheis an active member of the UK Operational Research Society for which she chairs the ORand Strategy Special Interest Group

Martin Kunc - Associate Professor of Management Sciences WBS

Martin holds a PhD in Decision Science from London Business School He previouslyworked for Arthur Andersen and Chilean business schools He is a member of the GeneralCouncil of the UK Operational Research Society His research interests include the use ofmodelling to support strategy development in particular strategic decision-making supplychain design and human resource planning and the role of managerial cognition on theprocess of decision making especially in the area of complex decision-making Martin hasconducted consultancy and research projects for several organisations includingMasterfoods Standard amp Poors Lafarge and Warwickshire County Council

Page 1 of 1 Warwick Business School

Teaching Faculty Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

Readings

The textbook provided for the week is

OBrien FA and Dyson RG (2007) Supporting Strategy Frameworks Methods and ModelsChichester Wiley

Pre-readings are included in the online materials you should read these in advance of the session to which theyrelate Unless specified you should treat ALL case studies as required pre-reading Completing as much of thepre-reading as possible before you attend will provide you with a wider understanding of the topics to be discussedduring the module and therefore enhance your contribution to the class

Case study advice

Any case studies for this module purchased from the Case Centre are provided for your personal use on this modulefor which you are registered You may download and print one copy for your personal use

The case studies will expire on 9 February 2015 and will not be available to you after this We recommend that youdownload any cases immediately When you have taken your copy of a case study you may not make further copiesshare them with or sell the materials to any other person or use them for any purpose not connected with your studiesfor this MBA module Failure to follow these terms and conditions of use may result in disciplinary action

Page 1 of 11 Warwick Business School

Readings Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

Monday readings

Monday 5 January 2015

Preparation for exploring strategic agenda

Pre-reading OBrien and Dyson Chapter 3

Preparation for strategic direction

Pre-reading OBrien and Dyson Chapter 2

Collins JC and Porras JI (1996)Building Your Companys VisionHarvard Business Review September-O ctober pp 65-77To download this article click on the link above and search for the following term AN9609167704

OConnell D Hickerson K and Pillutla A (2011)Organizational Visioning An Integrative ReviewGroup and Organization Management 36 1 pp 103-25

Preparation for performance measurement

Pre-reading OBrien and Dyson Chapter 11

Kaplan SR and Norton DP (1996)Using the Balanced Scorecard as a Strategic Management SystemHarvard Business Review January-February pp 75-85To download this article click on the link above and search for the following term AN9601185348

Page 2 of 11 Warwick Business School

Readings Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

Tuesday readings

Tuesday 6 January 2015

Preparation for scenario planning

Pre-reading OBrien and Dyson Chapter 9

Yeoman I and Greenwood C (2006)From Fast Food to Slow Food The Prospects for Scotlands Cuisine to 2015Tomorrows World Consumer and Tourist 2 3

Page 3 of 11 Warwick Business School

Readings Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

Wednesday readings

Wednesday 7 January 2015

Preparation for rehearsing strategy with modelling

Pre-reading OBrien and Dyson Chapter 7

Senge P (1992)A shift of Mindin The Fifth DisciplineLondon Random House Business

Case study People Express (Ref 9-483-103)

Preparation for modelling for strategic development

Pre-reading Morecroft J (2007)Managing Business Growthin Strategic Modelling and Business Dynamics A Feedback Systems ApproachChichester Wiley

Page 4 of 11 Warwick Business School

Readings Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

Thursday readings

Thursday 8 January 2015

Preparation for generating strategy

Pre-reading OBrien and Dyson Chapters 6 and 9

Preparation for decision and risk analysis

Pre-reading OBrien and Dyson Chapter 10

Page 5 of 11 Warwick Business School

Readings Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

Friday readings

Friday 9 January 2015

There are no readings for this day

Page 6 of 11 Warwick Business School

Readings Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

Preparation for syndicate group work

IN ADDITION you have been put into a syndicate group with a number of other people Each group has beenallocated a company for which you will undertake a scenario planning exercise as follows

Page 7 of 11 Warwick Business School

Readings Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

Page 8 of 11 Warwick Business School

Readings Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

Page 9 of 11 Warwick Business School

Readings Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

Group 7 (A209) - Age NI

Marcus Tyrberg

Steven Vallender

Tapfuma Vazhure

Stuart Walker

David Willetts

Aghiad Yabroudi

Each person in the group should access information for their organisation (such as an annual report if one exists) viathe companys website You need to have read this and done some further research (see suggestions below) beforearrival as you will be working on scenarios for these organisations in exercises throughout the week starting on thefirst day

Your further research should help you gain an understanding of the organisation and the industry within which itoperates in terms of past events current policiestrends and future developmentsuncertainties You will be asked topool your findings from your own and the supplied material with the other members of your syndicate group You mayfind the following questions useful

What planning horizon is your organisation likely to use for strategy development

What are the key issuesconcerns currently affecting your organisation

Who are your organisations key competitors Check their websites

Who are the key stakeholders for your organisation

What is your organisations visionmission statement Check the website

Over the past 10 years has your organisation experienced change What have been the drivers of thischange

Useful websites

Good sources of information include annual reports analyst reports newspapers and journals such as the FinancialTimes and the Economist as well as industry reports I would encourage you to make use of the Internet whatfollows is a non-exhaustive list of useful websites

httpwwwshellcomhomecontentfuture_energyscenarios

Its well worth visiting this site as much of the practice and literature on scenarios has a basis in theShell experience of scenario planning This particular page provides an introduction to scenariosincluding Shells current New lens Scenarios to 2100 Theres also a video of Shells scenarios as wellas archive material of previous scenario exercises

wwwwfsorg

World Future Society a non-profit educational and scientific organisation for those interested in futuresstudies

Check the variety of on-line resources available - different futures thinkers - The Futurist magazine etc

httpnewoptimistscomthe-forumscenario-planning

Website describing the New Optimists experiences developing scenarios about the future of FoodSupply within the West Midlands over the next 50 years Have a look at their scenario wildcards section

Page 10 of 11 Warwick Business School

Readings Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

httpwwwbisgovukforesightabout-us

The following quote is taken from their website and gives a good summary of what theyre about andwhat you will find on the site

Since its creation in 1994 the Foresight Programme has helped the UKGovernment to think systematically about the future We advise government abouthow to ensure todays decisions are robust to future uncertainties By combining thelatest science and evidence with futures analysis we help policy makers tacklecomplex issues with a better understanding of the potential opportunities andchallenges that lie ahead

We do this in three ways

Major Foresight Projects in-depth two-year studies which build acomprehensive evidence base on major issues looking 20-80 years into thefuture

Policy Futures Projects shorter projects which provide futures andevidence analysis to fill a specific gap in existing policy understanding

The Foresight Horizon Scanning Centre training toolkits and networks tostrengthen futures thinking capacity and share best practice within andacross government

Our work is used to stimulate and inform the development of more effectivestrategies policies and priorities at national and international levels

Foresight is headed by Professor Sir Mark Walport the Government ChiefScientific Adviser who reports directly to the Prime Minister and Cabinet It is a partof the Government Office for Science within the Department for BusinessInnovation amp Skills

Accessed (190913)

wwwplausiblecustompublishcom

Norwegian consultancy for futures studies and scenario based strategic planning established in the1990s as an experiment in internet based research

Interesting reading on a variety of topics This year artificial cells self-driving cars etc

Mintel - accessed via Warwick Library Website

This is a useful site for reports concerning for example the future

Page 11 of 11 Warwick Business School

Readings Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

  • Download Details
  • Introduction
  • Monday
  • Tuesday
  • Wednesday
  • Thursday
  • Friday
  • Module assessment
  • Teaching faculty
  • Readings
  • Monday readings
  • Tuesday readings
  • Wednesday readings
  • Thursday readings
  • Friday readings
  • Preparation for syndicate group work

Wednesday

Wednesday 7 January 2015

0900-1030 Rehearsing strategy using modelling MK

1030-1100 Break

1100-1300 An introduction to strategic modelling using system dynamics MK

1300 Lunch

1400-1530 Resource mapping MK

1530-1600 Break

1600-1730 Modelling for strategic development Workshop MK

FREE EVENING

Page 3 of 5 Warwick Business School

Programme Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

Thursday

Thursday 8 January 2015

0900-1030 Identifying and mapping resources and capabilities MK

1030-1100 Break

1100-1300 Generating and evaluating strategic options FOB

1300 Lunch

1400-1530 Supporting strategy in practice tbc

1530-1600 Break

1600-1730 Decision and risk analysis for the evaluation of strategic options MK

EVENING Syndicate work presentation preparation

Page 4 of 5 Warwick Business School

Programme Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

Friday

Friday 9 January 2015

0900-1030 Group presentations Scenario planning FOBMK

1030-1100 Break

1100-1200 Group presentations Scenario planning FOBMK

1200-1300 Developing the strategy process FOB

1300-1330Conclusion and module debrief (including assessment guidance and discussion of potentialprojects)

FOB

Page 5 of 5 Warwick Business School

Programme Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

Module assessment

The module will be assessed by 100 coursework

Choose an organisation to work on throughout this assessment either one you currently work for or one with whichyou are familiar

Part A Describe the strategic planningdevelopment process in the organisation (10)

Part B Prepare between two and four scenarios for the organisation Each scenario should be based on amaximum of 12 factors Your report for this section should cover

i The development process a short description of the scenarios developed and a discussion of the keyissues arising during their development (40)

ii The development of strategic initiatives and a recommendation of what strategy should be pursued bythe organisation in the light of the scenarios (10)

iii A brief description of the value of scenario planning to your chosen organisation and how it can beintegrated into the strategic planning development process (10)

Part C Discuss the possible future development of frameworks methods and models (other than scenarioplanning or SWOTTOWS analysis) to support the strategic planningdevelopment process within your chosenorganisation (30)

Evidence of reading relevant literature will influence the marking

Maximum length 3000 words Anything over this limit will not be marked References and appendices are notincluded in the word count

The deadline for submission is 1730 (UK time) on Monday 9 February 2015

The marks for this assignment will be released on Monday 9 March 2015

The submission deadline is precise and uploading of the document must be completed before 1730 (UK time) on thesubmission date Any document submitted even seconds later than 1730 precisely will be penalised for latesubmission in line with WBS policy Please consult your student handbook on mywbs for more detailed information

The online assignment submission system will only accept documents in portable documents format (PDF) filesPlease note that we will not accept PDF files of scanned documents You should create your assignment in yourchosen package (for example Word) then convert it straight to PDF before uploading Please place your student IDnumber NOT YOUR NAME on the front of your submission as all submissions are marked anonymously

All the scripts should also have the following paragraph included on the front page

This is to certify that the work I am submitting is my own All external references andsources are clearly acknowledged and identified within the contents I am aware of theUniversity of Warwick regulation concerning plagiarism and collusion

No substantial part(s) of the work submitted here has also been submitted by me in otherassessments for accredited courses of study and I acknowledge that if this has been donean appropriate reduction in the mark I might otherwise have received will be made

PLEASE ENSURE YOU KEEP A SECURITY COPY OF YOUR ASSESSMENT

Page 1 of 1 Warwick Business School

Assessment Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

Teaching faculty

Frances OBrien (Module Organiser) - Associate Professor of Operational ResearchWBS

Frances OBriens research interests include the development and use of approaches tosupport strategy development in particular scenario planning and visioningmethodologies and the practice of combining OR and strategy tools by managementteams She holds a BSc (Joint Honours) in Mathematics and Classical Studies from SurreyUniversity and an MSc in Operational Research from Southampton University Shepreviously worked for the Operational Research Group of Ford of Europe as a consultantproviding modelling support on simulation manpower planning and allocation studies Sheis an active member of the UK Operational Research Society for which she chairs the ORand Strategy Special Interest Group

Martin Kunc - Associate Professor of Management Sciences WBS

Martin holds a PhD in Decision Science from London Business School He previouslyworked for Arthur Andersen and Chilean business schools He is a member of the GeneralCouncil of the UK Operational Research Society His research interests include the use ofmodelling to support strategy development in particular strategic decision-making supplychain design and human resource planning and the role of managerial cognition on theprocess of decision making especially in the area of complex decision-making Martin hasconducted consultancy and research projects for several organisations includingMasterfoods Standard amp Poors Lafarge and Warwickshire County Council

Page 1 of 1 Warwick Business School

Teaching Faculty Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

Readings

The textbook provided for the week is

OBrien FA and Dyson RG (2007) Supporting Strategy Frameworks Methods and ModelsChichester Wiley

Pre-readings are included in the online materials you should read these in advance of the session to which theyrelate Unless specified you should treat ALL case studies as required pre-reading Completing as much of thepre-reading as possible before you attend will provide you with a wider understanding of the topics to be discussedduring the module and therefore enhance your contribution to the class

Case study advice

Any case studies for this module purchased from the Case Centre are provided for your personal use on this modulefor which you are registered You may download and print one copy for your personal use

The case studies will expire on 9 February 2015 and will not be available to you after this We recommend that youdownload any cases immediately When you have taken your copy of a case study you may not make further copiesshare them with or sell the materials to any other person or use them for any purpose not connected with your studiesfor this MBA module Failure to follow these terms and conditions of use may result in disciplinary action

Page 1 of 11 Warwick Business School

Readings Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

Monday readings

Monday 5 January 2015

Preparation for exploring strategic agenda

Pre-reading OBrien and Dyson Chapter 3

Preparation for strategic direction

Pre-reading OBrien and Dyson Chapter 2

Collins JC and Porras JI (1996)Building Your Companys VisionHarvard Business Review September-O ctober pp 65-77To download this article click on the link above and search for the following term AN9609167704

OConnell D Hickerson K and Pillutla A (2011)Organizational Visioning An Integrative ReviewGroup and Organization Management 36 1 pp 103-25

Preparation for performance measurement

Pre-reading OBrien and Dyson Chapter 11

Kaplan SR and Norton DP (1996)Using the Balanced Scorecard as a Strategic Management SystemHarvard Business Review January-February pp 75-85To download this article click on the link above and search for the following term AN9601185348

Page 2 of 11 Warwick Business School

Readings Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

Tuesday readings

Tuesday 6 January 2015

Preparation for scenario planning

Pre-reading OBrien and Dyson Chapter 9

Yeoman I and Greenwood C (2006)From Fast Food to Slow Food The Prospects for Scotlands Cuisine to 2015Tomorrows World Consumer and Tourist 2 3

Page 3 of 11 Warwick Business School

Readings Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

Wednesday readings

Wednesday 7 January 2015

Preparation for rehearsing strategy with modelling

Pre-reading OBrien and Dyson Chapter 7

Senge P (1992)A shift of Mindin The Fifth DisciplineLondon Random House Business

Case study People Express (Ref 9-483-103)

Preparation for modelling for strategic development

Pre-reading Morecroft J (2007)Managing Business Growthin Strategic Modelling and Business Dynamics A Feedback Systems ApproachChichester Wiley

Page 4 of 11 Warwick Business School

Readings Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

Thursday readings

Thursday 8 January 2015

Preparation for generating strategy

Pre-reading OBrien and Dyson Chapters 6 and 9

Preparation for decision and risk analysis

Pre-reading OBrien and Dyson Chapter 10

Page 5 of 11 Warwick Business School

Readings Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

Friday readings

Friday 9 January 2015

There are no readings for this day

Page 6 of 11 Warwick Business School

Readings Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

Preparation for syndicate group work

IN ADDITION you have been put into a syndicate group with a number of other people Each group has beenallocated a company for which you will undertake a scenario planning exercise as follows

Page 7 of 11 Warwick Business School

Readings Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

Page 8 of 11 Warwick Business School

Readings Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

Page 9 of 11 Warwick Business School

Readings Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

Group 7 (A209) - Age NI

Marcus Tyrberg

Steven Vallender

Tapfuma Vazhure

Stuart Walker

David Willetts

Aghiad Yabroudi

Each person in the group should access information for their organisation (such as an annual report if one exists) viathe companys website You need to have read this and done some further research (see suggestions below) beforearrival as you will be working on scenarios for these organisations in exercises throughout the week starting on thefirst day

Your further research should help you gain an understanding of the organisation and the industry within which itoperates in terms of past events current policiestrends and future developmentsuncertainties You will be asked topool your findings from your own and the supplied material with the other members of your syndicate group You mayfind the following questions useful

What planning horizon is your organisation likely to use for strategy development

What are the key issuesconcerns currently affecting your organisation

Who are your organisations key competitors Check their websites

Who are the key stakeholders for your organisation

What is your organisations visionmission statement Check the website

Over the past 10 years has your organisation experienced change What have been the drivers of thischange

Useful websites

Good sources of information include annual reports analyst reports newspapers and journals such as the FinancialTimes and the Economist as well as industry reports I would encourage you to make use of the Internet whatfollows is a non-exhaustive list of useful websites

httpwwwshellcomhomecontentfuture_energyscenarios

Its well worth visiting this site as much of the practice and literature on scenarios has a basis in theShell experience of scenario planning This particular page provides an introduction to scenariosincluding Shells current New lens Scenarios to 2100 Theres also a video of Shells scenarios as wellas archive material of previous scenario exercises

wwwwfsorg

World Future Society a non-profit educational and scientific organisation for those interested in futuresstudies

Check the variety of on-line resources available - different futures thinkers - The Futurist magazine etc

httpnewoptimistscomthe-forumscenario-planning

Website describing the New Optimists experiences developing scenarios about the future of FoodSupply within the West Midlands over the next 50 years Have a look at their scenario wildcards section

Page 10 of 11 Warwick Business School

Readings Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

httpwwwbisgovukforesightabout-us

The following quote is taken from their website and gives a good summary of what theyre about andwhat you will find on the site

Since its creation in 1994 the Foresight Programme has helped the UKGovernment to think systematically about the future We advise government abouthow to ensure todays decisions are robust to future uncertainties By combining thelatest science and evidence with futures analysis we help policy makers tacklecomplex issues with a better understanding of the potential opportunities andchallenges that lie ahead

We do this in three ways

Major Foresight Projects in-depth two-year studies which build acomprehensive evidence base on major issues looking 20-80 years into thefuture

Policy Futures Projects shorter projects which provide futures andevidence analysis to fill a specific gap in existing policy understanding

The Foresight Horizon Scanning Centre training toolkits and networks tostrengthen futures thinking capacity and share best practice within andacross government

Our work is used to stimulate and inform the development of more effectivestrategies policies and priorities at national and international levels

Foresight is headed by Professor Sir Mark Walport the Government ChiefScientific Adviser who reports directly to the Prime Minister and Cabinet It is a partof the Government Office for Science within the Department for BusinessInnovation amp Skills

Accessed (190913)

wwwplausiblecustompublishcom

Norwegian consultancy for futures studies and scenario based strategic planning established in the1990s as an experiment in internet based research

Interesting reading on a variety of topics This year artificial cells self-driving cars etc

Mintel - accessed via Warwick Library Website

This is a useful site for reports concerning for example the future

Page 11 of 11 Warwick Business School

Readings Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

  • Download Details
  • Introduction
  • Monday
  • Tuesday
  • Wednesday
  • Thursday
  • Friday
  • Module assessment
  • Teaching faculty
  • Readings
  • Monday readings
  • Tuesday readings
  • Wednesday readings
  • Thursday readings
  • Friday readings
  • Preparation for syndicate group work

Thursday

Thursday 8 January 2015

0900-1030 Identifying and mapping resources and capabilities MK

1030-1100 Break

1100-1300 Generating and evaluating strategic options FOB

1300 Lunch

1400-1530 Supporting strategy in practice tbc

1530-1600 Break

1600-1730 Decision and risk analysis for the evaluation of strategic options MK

EVENING Syndicate work presentation preparation

Page 4 of 5 Warwick Business School

Programme Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

Friday

Friday 9 January 2015

0900-1030 Group presentations Scenario planning FOBMK

1030-1100 Break

1100-1200 Group presentations Scenario planning FOBMK

1200-1300 Developing the strategy process FOB

1300-1330Conclusion and module debrief (including assessment guidance and discussion of potentialprojects)

FOB

Page 5 of 5 Warwick Business School

Programme Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

Module assessment

The module will be assessed by 100 coursework

Choose an organisation to work on throughout this assessment either one you currently work for or one with whichyou are familiar

Part A Describe the strategic planningdevelopment process in the organisation (10)

Part B Prepare between two and four scenarios for the organisation Each scenario should be based on amaximum of 12 factors Your report for this section should cover

i The development process a short description of the scenarios developed and a discussion of the keyissues arising during their development (40)

ii The development of strategic initiatives and a recommendation of what strategy should be pursued bythe organisation in the light of the scenarios (10)

iii A brief description of the value of scenario planning to your chosen organisation and how it can beintegrated into the strategic planning development process (10)

Part C Discuss the possible future development of frameworks methods and models (other than scenarioplanning or SWOTTOWS analysis) to support the strategic planningdevelopment process within your chosenorganisation (30)

Evidence of reading relevant literature will influence the marking

Maximum length 3000 words Anything over this limit will not be marked References and appendices are notincluded in the word count

The deadline for submission is 1730 (UK time) on Monday 9 February 2015

The marks for this assignment will be released on Monday 9 March 2015

The submission deadline is precise and uploading of the document must be completed before 1730 (UK time) on thesubmission date Any document submitted even seconds later than 1730 precisely will be penalised for latesubmission in line with WBS policy Please consult your student handbook on mywbs for more detailed information

The online assignment submission system will only accept documents in portable documents format (PDF) filesPlease note that we will not accept PDF files of scanned documents You should create your assignment in yourchosen package (for example Word) then convert it straight to PDF before uploading Please place your student IDnumber NOT YOUR NAME on the front of your submission as all submissions are marked anonymously

All the scripts should also have the following paragraph included on the front page

This is to certify that the work I am submitting is my own All external references andsources are clearly acknowledged and identified within the contents I am aware of theUniversity of Warwick regulation concerning plagiarism and collusion

No substantial part(s) of the work submitted here has also been submitted by me in otherassessments for accredited courses of study and I acknowledge that if this has been donean appropriate reduction in the mark I might otherwise have received will be made

PLEASE ENSURE YOU KEEP A SECURITY COPY OF YOUR ASSESSMENT

Page 1 of 1 Warwick Business School

Assessment Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

Teaching faculty

Frances OBrien (Module Organiser) - Associate Professor of Operational ResearchWBS

Frances OBriens research interests include the development and use of approaches tosupport strategy development in particular scenario planning and visioningmethodologies and the practice of combining OR and strategy tools by managementteams She holds a BSc (Joint Honours) in Mathematics and Classical Studies from SurreyUniversity and an MSc in Operational Research from Southampton University Shepreviously worked for the Operational Research Group of Ford of Europe as a consultantproviding modelling support on simulation manpower planning and allocation studies Sheis an active member of the UK Operational Research Society for which she chairs the ORand Strategy Special Interest Group

Martin Kunc - Associate Professor of Management Sciences WBS

Martin holds a PhD in Decision Science from London Business School He previouslyworked for Arthur Andersen and Chilean business schools He is a member of the GeneralCouncil of the UK Operational Research Society His research interests include the use ofmodelling to support strategy development in particular strategic decision-making supplychain design and human resource planning and the role of managerial cognition on theprocess of decision making especially in the area of complex decision-making Martin hasconducted consultancy and research projects for several organisations includingMasterfoods Standard amp Poors Lafarge and Warwickshire County Council

Page 1 of 1 Warwick Business School

Teaching Faculty Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

Readings

The textbook provided for the week is

OBrien FA and Dyson RG (2007) Supporting Strategy Frameworks Methods and ModelsChichester Wiley

Pre-readings are included in the online materials you should read these in advance of the session to which theyrelate Unless specified you should treat ALL case studies as required pre-reading Completing as much of thepre-reading as possible before you attend will provide you with a wider understanding of the topics to be discussedduring the module and therefore enhance your contribution to the class

Case study advice

Any case studies for this module purchased from the Case Centre are provided for your personal use on this modulefor which you are registered You may download and print one copy for your personal use

The case studies will expire on 9 February 2015 and will not be available to you after this We recommend that youdownload any cases immediately When you have taken your copy of a case study you may not make further copiesshare them with or sell the materials to any other person or use them for any purpose not connected with your studiesfor this MBA module Failure to follow these terms and conditions of use may result in disciplinary action

Page 1 of 11 Warwick Business School

Readings Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

Monday readings

Monday 5 January 2015

Preparation for exploring strategic agenda

Pre-reading OBrien and Dyson Chapter 3

Preparation for strategic direction

Pre-reading OBrien and Dyson Chapter 2

Collins JC and Porras JI (1996)Building Your Companys VisionHarvard Business Review September-O ctober pp 65-77To download this article click on the link above and search for the following term AN9609167704

OConnell D Hickerson K and Pillutla A (2011)Organizational Visioning An Integrative ReviewGroup and Organization Management 36 1 pp 103-25

Preparation for performance measurement

Pre-reading OBrien and Dyson Chapter 11

Kaplan SR and Norton DP (1996)Using the Balanced Scorecard as a Strategic Management SystemHarvard Business Review January-February pp 75-85To download this article click on the link above and search for the following term AN9601185348

Page 2 of 11 Warwick Business School

Readings Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

Tuesday readings

Tuesday 6 January 2015

Preparation for scenario planning

Pre-reading OBrien and Dyson Chapter 9

Yeoman I and Greenwood C (2006)From Fast Food to Slow Food The Prospects for Scotlands Cuisine to 2015Tomorrows World Consumer and Tourist 2 3

Page 3 of 11 Warwick Business School

Readings Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

Wednesday readings

Wednesday 7 January 2015

Preparation for rehearsing strategy with modelling

Pre-reading OBrien and Dyson Chapter 7

Senge P (1992)A shift of Mindin The Fifth DisciplineLondon Random House Business

Case study People Express (Ref 9-483-103)

Preparation for modelling for strategic development

Pre-reading Morecroft J (2007)Managing Business Growthin Strategic Modelling and Business Dynamics A Feedback Systems ApproachChichester Wiley

Page 4 of 11 Warwick Business School

Readings Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

Thursday readings

Thursday 8 January 2015

Preparation for generating strategy

Pre-reading OBrien and Dyson Chapters 6 and 9

Preparation for decision and risk analysis

Pre-reading OBrien and Dyson Chapter 10

Page 5 of 11 Warwick Business School

Readings Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

Friday readings

Friday 9 January 2015

There are no readings for this day

Page 6 of 11 Warwick Business School

Readings Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

Preparation for syndicate group work

IN ADDITION you have been put into a syndicate group with a number of other people Each group has beenallocated a company for which you will undertake a scenario planning exercise as follows

Page 7 of 11 Warwick Business School

Readings Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

Page 8 of 11 Warwick Business School

Readings Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

Page 9 of 11 Warwick Business School

Readings Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

Group 7 (A209) - Age NI

Marcus Tyrberg

Steven Vallender

Tapfuma Vazhure

Stuart Walker

David Willetts

Aghiad Yabroudi

Each person in the group should access information for their organisation (such as an annual report if one exists) viathe companys website You need to have read this and done some further research (see suggestions below) beforearrival as you will be working on scenarios for these organisations in exercises throughout the week starting on thefirst day

Your further research should help you gain an understanding of the organisation and the industry within which itoperates in terms of past events current policiestrends and future developmentsuncertainties You will be asked topool your findings from your own and the supplied material with the other members of your syndicate group You mayfind the following questions useful

What planning horizon is your organisation likely to use for strategy development

What are the key issuesconcerns currently affecting your organisation

Who are your organisations key competitors Check their websites

Who are the key stakeholders for your organisation

What is your organisations visionmission statement Check the website

Over the past 10 years has your organisation experienced change What have been the drivers of thischange

Useful websites

Good sources of information include annual reports analyst reports newspapers and journals such as the FinancialTimes and the Economist as well as industry reports I would encourage you to make use of the Internet whatfollows is a non-exhaustive list of useful websites

httpwwwshellcomhomecontentfuture_energyscenarios

Its well worth visiting this site as much of the practice and literature on scenarios has a basis in theShell experience of scenario planning This particular page provides an introduction to scenariosincluding Shells current New lens Scenarios to 2100 Theres also a video of Shells scenarios as wellas archive material of previous scenario exercises

wwwwfsorg

World Future Society a non-profit educational and scientific organisation for those interested in futuresstudies

Check the variety of on-line resources available - different futures thinkers - The Futurist magazine etc

httpnewoptimistscomthe-forumscenario-planning

Website describing the New Optimists experiences developing scenarios about the future of FoodSupply within the West Midlands over the next 50 years Have a look at their scenario wildcards section

Page 10 of 11 Warwick Business School

Readings Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

httpwwwbisgovukforesightabout-us

The following quote is taken from their website and gives a good summary of what theyre about andwhat you will find on the site

Since its creation in 1994 the Foresight Programme has helped the UKGovernment to think systematically about the future We advise government abouthow to ensure todays decisions are robust to future uncertainties By combining thelatest science and evidence with futures analysis we help policy makers tacklecomplex issues with a better understanding of the potential opportunities andchallenges that lie ahead

We do this in three ways

Major Foresight Projects in-depth two-year studies which build acomprehensive evidence base on major issues looking 20-80 years into thefuture

Policy Futures Projects shorter projects which provide futures andevidence analysis to fill a specific gap in existing policy understanding

The Foresight Horizon Scanning Centre training toolkits and networks tostrengthen futures thinking capacity and share best practice within andacross government

Our work is used to stimulate and inform the development of more effectivestrategies policies and priorities at national and international levels

Foresight is headed by Professor Sir Mark Walport the Government ChiefScientific Adviser who reports directly to the Prime Minister and Cabinet It is a partof the Government Office for Science within the Department for BusinessInnovation amp Skills

Accessed (190913)

wwwplausiblecustompublishcom

Norwegian consultancy for futures studies and scenario based strategic planning established in the1990s as an experiment in internet based research

Interesting reading on a variety of topics This year artificial cells self-driving cars etc

Mintel - accessed via Warwick Library Website

This is a useful site for reports concerning for example the future

Page 11 of 11 Warwick Business School

Readings Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

  • Download Details
  • Introduction
  • Monday
  • Tuesday
  • Wednesday
  • Thursday
  • Friday
  • Module assessment
  • Teaching faculty
  • Readings
  • Monday readings
  • Tuesday readings
  • Wednesday readings
  • Thursday readings
  • Friday readings
  • Preparation for syndicate group work

Friday

Friday 9 January 2015

0900-1030 Group presentations Scenario planning FOBMK

1030-1100 Break

1100-1200 Group presentations Scenario planning FOBMK

1200-1300 Developing the strategy process FOB

1300-1330Conclusion and module debrief (including assessment guidance and discussion of potentialprojects)

FOB

Page 5 of 5 Warwick Business School

Programme Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

Module assessment

The module will be assessed by 100 coursework

Choose an organisation to work on throughout this assessment either one you currently work for or one with whichyou are familiar

Part A Describe the strategic planningdevelopment process in the organisation (10)

Part B Prepare between two and four scenarios for the organisation Each scenario should be based on amaximum of 12 factors Your report for this section should cover

i The development process a short description of the scenarios developed and a discussion of the keyissues arising during their development (40)

ii The development of strategic initiatives and a recommendation of what strategy should be pursued bythe organisation in the light of the scenarios (10)

iii A brief description of the value of scenario planning to your chosen organisation and how it can beintegrated into the strategic planning development process (10)

Part C Discuss the possible future development of frameworks methods and models (other than scenarioplanning or SWOTTOWS analysis) to support the strategic planningdevelopment process within your chosenorganisation (30)

Evidence of reading relevant literature will influence the marking

Maximum length 3000 words Anything over this limit will not be marked References and appendices are notincluded in the word count

The deadline for submission is 1730 (UK time) on Monday 9 February 2015

The marks for this assignment will be released on Monday 9 March 2015

The submission deadline is precise and uploading of the document must be completed before 1730 (UK time) on thesubmission date Any document submitted even seconds later than 1730 precisely will be penalised for latesubmission in line with WBS policy Please consult your student handbook on mywbs for more detailed information

The online assignment submission system will only accept documents in portable documents format (PDF) filesPlease note that we will not accept PDF files of scanned documents You should create your assignment in yourchosen package (for example Word) then convert it straight to PDF before uploading Please place your student IDnumber NOT YOUR NAME on the front of your submission as all submissions are marked anonymously

All the scripts should also have the following paragraph included on the front page

This is to certify that the work I am submitting is my own All external references andsources are clearly acknowledged and identified within the contents I am aware of theUniversity of Warwick regulation concerning plagiarism and collusion

No substantial part(s) of the work submitted here has also been submitted by me in otherassessments for accredited courses of study and I acknowledge that if this has been donean appropriate reduction in the mark I might otherwise have received will be made

PLEASE ENSURE YOU KEEP A SECURITY COPY OF YOUR ASSESSMENT

Page 1 of 1 Warwick Business School

Assessment Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

Teaching faculty

Frances OBrien (Module Organiser) - Associate Professor of Operational ResearchWBS

Frances OBriens research interests include the development and use of approaches tosupport strategy development in particular scenario planning and visioningmethodologies and the practice of combining OR and strategy tools by managementteams She holds a BSc (Joint Honours) in Mathematics and Classical Studies from SurreyUniversity and an MSc in Operational Research from Southampton University Shepreviously worked for the Operational Research Group of Ford of Europe as a consultantproviding modelling support on simulation manpower planning and allocation studies Sheis an active member of the UK Operational Research Society for which she chairs the ORand Strategy Special Interest Group

Martin Kunc - Associate Professor of Management Sciences WBS

Martin holds a PhD in Decision Science from London Business School He previouslyworked for Arthur Andersen and Chilean business schools He is a member of the GeneralCouncil of the UK Operational Research Society His research interests include the use ofmodelling to support strategy development in particular strategic decision-making supplychain design and human resource planning and the role of managerial cognition on theprocess of decision making especially in the area of complex decision-making Martin hasconducted consultancy and research projects for several organisations includingMasterfoods Standard amp Poors Lafarge and Warwickshire County Council

Page 1 of 1 Warwick Business School

Teaching Faculty Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

Readings

The textbook provided for the week is

OBrien FA and Dyson RG (2007) Supporting Strategy Frameworks Methods and ModelsChichester Wiley

Pre-readings are included in the online materials you should read these in advance of the session to which theyrelate Unless specified you should treat ALL case studies as required pre-reading Completing as much of thepre-reading as possible before you attend will provide you with a wider understanding of the topics to be discussedduring the module and therefore enhance your contribution to the class

Case study advice

Any case studies for this module purchased from the Case Centre are provided for your personal use on this modulefor which you are registered You may download and print one copy for your personal use

The case studies will expire on 9 February 2015 and will not be available to you after this We recommend that youdownload any cases immediately When you have taken your copy of a case study you may not make further copiesshare them with or sell the materials to any other person or use them for any purpose not connected with your studiesfor this MBA module Failure to follow these terms and conditions of use may result in disciplinary action

Page 1 of 11 Warwick Business School

Readings Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

Monday readings

Monday 5 January 2015

Preparation for exploring strategic agenda

Pre-reading OBrien and Dyson Chapter 3

Preparation for strategic direction

Pre-reading OBrien and Dyson Chapter 2

Collins JC and Porras JI (1996)Building Your Companys VisionHarvard Business Review September-O ctober pp 65-77To download this article click on the link above and search for the following term AN9609167704

OConnell D Hickerson K and Pillutla A (2011)Organizational Visioning An Integrative ReviewGroup and Organization Management 36 1 pp 103-25

Preparation for performance measurement

Pre-reading OBrien and Dyson Chapter 11

Kaplan SR and Norton DP (1996)Using the Balanced Scorecard as a Strategic Management SystemHarvard Business Review January-February pp 75-85To download this article click on the link above and search for the following term AN9601185348

Page 2 of 11 Warwick Business School

Readings Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

Tuesday readings

Tuesday 6 January 2015

Preparation for scenario planning

Pre-reading OBrien and Dyson Chapter 9

Yeoman I and Greenwood C (2006)From Fast Food to Slow Food The Prospects for Scotlands Cuisine to 2015Tomorrows World Consumer and Tourist 2 3

Page 3 of 11 Warwick Business School

Readings Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

Wednesday readings

Wednesday 7 January 2015

Preparation for rehearsing strategy with modelling

Pre-reading OBrien and Dyson Chapter 7

Senge P (1992)A shift of Mindin The Fifth DisciplineLondon Random House Business

Case study People Express (Ref 9-483-103)

Preparation for modelling for strategic development

Pre-reading Morecroft J (2007)Managing Business Growthin Strategic Modelling and Business Dynamics A Feedback Systems ApproachChichester Wiley

Page 4 of 11 Warwick Business School

Readings Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

Thursday readings

Thursday 8 January 2015

Preparation for generating strategy

Pre-reading OBrien and Dyson Chapters 6 and 9

Preparation for decision and risk analysis

Pre-reading OBrien and Dyson Chapter 10

Page 5 of 11 Warwick Business School

Readings Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

Friday readings

Friday 9 January 2015

There are no readings for this day

Page 6 of 11 Warwick Business School

Readings Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

Preparation for syndicate group work

IN ADDITION you have been put into a syndicate group with a number of other people Each group has beenallocated a company for which you will undertake a scenario planning exercise as follows

Page 7 of 11 Warwick Business School

Readings Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

Page 8 of 11 Warwick Business School

Readings Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

Page 9 of 11 Warwick Business School

Readings Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

Group 7 (A209) - Age NI

Marcus Tyrberg

Steven Vallender

Tapfuma Vazhure

Stuart Walker

David Willetts

Aghiad Yabroudi

Each person in the group should access information for their organisation (such as an annual report if one exists) viathe companys website You need to have read this and done some further research (see suggestions below) beforearrival as you will be working on scenarios for these organisations in exercises throughout the week starting on thefirst day

Your further research should help you gain an understanding of the organisation and the industry within which itoperates in terms of past events current policiestrends and future developmentsuncertainties You will be asked topool your findings from your own and the supplied material with the other members of your syndicate group You mayfind the following questions useful

What planning horizon is your organisation likely to use for strategy development

What are the key issuesconcerns currently affecting your organisation

Who are your organisations key competitors Check their websites

Who are the key stakeholders for your organisation

What is your organisations visionmission statement Check the website

Over the past 10 years has your organisation experienced change What have been the drivers of thischange

Useful websites

Good sources of information include annual reports analyst reports newspapers and journals such as the FinancialTimes and the Economist as well as industry reports I would encourage you to make use of the Internet whatfollows is a non-exhaustive list of useful websites

httpwwwshellcomhomecontentfuture_energyscenarios

Its well worth visiting this site as much of the practice and literature on scenarios has a basis in theShell experience of scenario planning This particular page provides an introduction to scenariosincluding Shells current New lens Scenarios to 2100 Theres also a video of Shells scenarios as wellas archive material of previous scenario exercises

wwwwfsorg

World Future Society a non-profit educational and scientific organisation for those interested in futuresstudies

Check the variety of on-line resources available - different futures thinkers - The Futurist magazine etc

httpnewoptimistscomthe-forumscenario-planning

Website describing the New Optimists experiences developing scenarios about the future of FoodSupply within the West Midlands over the next 50 years Have a look at their scenario wildcards section

Page 10 of 11 Warwick Business School

Readings Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

httpwwwbisgovukforesightabout-us

The following quote is taken from their website and gives a good summary of what theyre about andwhat you will find on the site

Since its creation in 1994 the Foresight Programme has helped the UKGovernment to think systematically about the future We advise government abouthow to ensure todays decisions are robust to future uncertainties By combining thelatest science and evidence with futures analysis we help policy makers tacklecomplex issues with a better understanding of the potential opportunities andchallenges that lie ahead

We do this in three ways

Major Foresight Projects in-depth two-year studies which build acomprehensive evidence base on major issues looking 20-80 years into thefuture

Policy Futures Projects shorter projects which provide futures andevidence analysis to fill a specific gap in existing policy understanding

The Foresight Horizon Scanning Centre training toolkits and networks tostrengthen futures thinking capacity and share best practice within andacross government

Our work is used to stimulate and inform the development of more effectivestrategies policies and priorities at national and international levels

Foresight is headed by Professor Sir Mark Walport the Government ChiefScientific Adviser who reports directly to the Prime Minister and Cabinet It is a partof the Government Office for Science within the Department for BusinessInnovation amp Skills

Accessed (190913)

wwwplausiblecustompublishcom

Norwegian consultancy for futures studies and scenario based strategic planning established in the1990s as an experiment in internet based research

Interesting reading on a variety of topics This year artificial cells self-driving cars etc

Mintel - accessed via Warwick Library Website

This is a useful site for reports concerning for example the future

Page 11 of 11 Warwick Business School

Readings Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

  • Download Details
  • Introduction
  • Monday
  • Tuesday
  • Wednesday
  • Thursday
  • Friday
  • Module assessment
  • Teaching faculty
  • Readings
  • Monday readings
  • Tuesday readings
  • Wednesday readings
  • Thursday readings
  • Friday readings
  • Preparation for syndicate group work

Module assessment

The module will be assessed by 100 coursework

Choose an organisation to work on throughout this assessment either one you currently work for or one with whichyou are familiar

Part A Describe the strategic planningdevelopment process in the organisation (10)

Part B Prepare between two and four scenarios for the organisation Each scenario should be based on amaximum of 12 factors Your report for this section should cover

i The development process a short description of the scenarios developed and a discussion of the keyissues arising during their development (40)

ii The development of strategic initiatives and a recommendation of what strategy should be pursued bythe organisation in the light of the scenarios (10)

iii A brief description of the value of scenario planning to your chosen organisation and how it can beintegrated into the strategic planning development process (10)

Part C Discuss the possible future development of frameworks methods and models (other than scenarioplanning or SWOTTOWS analysis) to support the strategic planningdevelopment process within your chosenorganisation (30)

Evidence of reading relevant literature will influence the marking

Maximum length 3000 words Anything over this limit will not be marked References and appendices are notincluded in the word count

The deadline for submission is 1730 (UK time) on Monday 9 February 2015

The marks for this assignment will be released on Monday 9 March 2015

The submission deadline is precise and uploading of the document must be completed before 1730 (UK time) on thesubmission date Any document submitted even seconds later than 1730 precisely will be penalised for latesubmission in line with WBS policy Please consult your student handbook on mywbs for more detailed information

The online assignment submission system will only accept documents in portable documents format (PDF) filesPlease note that we will not accept PDF files of scanned documents You should create your assignment in yourchosen package (for example Word) then convert it straight to PDF before uploading Please place your student IDnumber NOT YOUR NAME on the front of your submission as all submissions are marked anonymously

All the scripts should also have the following paragraph included on the front page

This is to certify that the work I am submitting is my own All external references andsources are clearly acknowledged and identified within the contents I am aware of theUniversity of Warwick regulation concerning plagiarism and collusion

No substantial part(s) of the work submitted here has also been submitted by me in otherassessments for accredited courses of study and I acknowledge that if this has been donean appropriate reduction in the mark I might otherwise have received will be made

PLEASE ENSURE YOU KEEP A SECURITY COPY OF YOUR ASSESSMENT

Page 1 of 1 Warwick Business School

Assessment Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

Teaching faculty

Frances OBrien (Module Organiser) - Associate Professor of Operational ResearchWBS

Frances OBriens research interests include the development and use of approaches tosupport strategy development in particular scenario planning and visioningmethodologies and the practice of combining OR and strategy tools by managementteams She holds a BSc (Joint Honours) in Mathematics and Classical Studies from SurreyUniversity and an MSc in Operational Research from Southampton University Shepreviously worked for the Operational Research Group of Ford of Europe as a consultantproviding modelling support on simulation manpower planning and allocation studies Sheis an active member of the UK Operational Research Society for which she chairs the ORand Strategy Special Interest Group

Martin Kunc - Associate Professor of Management Sciences WBS

Martin holds a PhD in Decision Science from London Business School He previouslyworked for Arthur Andersen and Chilean business schools He is a member of the GeneralCouncil of the UK Operational Research Society His research interests include the use ofmodelling to support strategy development in particular strategic decision-making supplychain design and human resource planning and the role of managerial cognition on theprocess of decision making especially in the area of complex decision-making Martin hasconducted consultancy and research projects for several organisations includingMasterfoods Standard amp Poors Lafarge and Warwickshire County Council

Page 1 of 1 Warwick Business School

Teaching Faculty Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

Readings

The textbook provided for the week is

OBrien FA and Dyson RG (2007) Supporting Strategy Frameworks Methods and ModelsChichester Wiley

Pre-readings are included in the online materials you should read these in advance of the session to which theyrelate Unless specified you should treat ALL case studies as required pre-reading Completing as much of thepre-reading as possible before you attend will provide you with a wider understanding of the topics to be discussedduring the module and therefore enhance your contribution to the class

Case study advice

Any case studies for this module purchased from the Case Centre are provided for your personal use on this modulefor which you are registered You may download and print one copy for your personal use

The case studies will expire on 9 February 2015 and will not be available to you after this We recommend that youdownload any cases immediately When you have taken your copy of a case study you may not make further copiesshare them with or sell the materials to any other person or use them for any purpose not connected with your studiesfor this MBA module Failure to follow these terms and conditions of use may result in disciplinary action

Page 1 of 11 Warwick Business School

Readings Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

Monday readings

Monday 5 January 2015

Preparation for exploring strategic agenda

Pre-reading OBrien and Dyson Chapter 3

Preparation for strategic direction

Pre-reading OBrien and Dyson Chapter 2

Collins JC and Porras JI (1996)Building Your Companys VisionHarvard Business Review September-O ctober pp 65-77To download this article click on the link above and search for the following term AN9609167704

OConnell D Hickerson K and Pillutla A (2011)Organizational Visioning An Integrative ReviewGroup and Organization Management 36 1 pp 103-25

Preparation for performance measurement

Pre-reading OBrien and Dyson Chapter 11

Kaplan SR and Norton DP (1996)Using the Balanced Scorecard as a Strategic Management SystemHarvard Business Review January-February pp 75-85To download this article click on the link above and search for the following term AN9601185348

Page 2 of 11 Warwick Business School

Readings Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

Tuesday readings

Tuesday 6 January 2015

Preparation for scenario planning

Pre-reading OBrien and Dyson Chapter 9

Yeoman I and Greenwood C (2006)From Fast Food to Slow Food The Prospects for Scotlands Cuisine to 2015Tomorrows World Consumer and Tourist 2 3

Page 3 of 11 Warwick Business School

Readings Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

Wednesday readings

Wednesday 7 January 2015

Preparation for rehearsing strategy with modelling

Pre-reading OBrien and Dyson Chapter 7

Senge P (1992)A shift of Mindin The Fifth DisciplineLondon Random House Business

Case study People Express (Ref 9-483-103)

Preparation for modelling for strategic development

Pre-reading Morecroft J (2007)Managing Business Growthin Strategic Modelling and Business Dynamics A Feedback Systems ApproachChichester Wiley

Page 4 of 11 Warwick Business School

Readings Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

Thursday readings

Thursday 8 January 2015

Preparation for generating strategy

Pre-reading OBrien and Dyson Chapters 6 and 9

Preparation for decision and risk analysis

Pre-reading OBrien and Dyson Chapter 10

Page 5 of 11 Warwick Business School

Readings Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

Friday readings

Friday 9 January 2015

There are no readings for this day

Page 6 of 11 Warwick Business School

Readings Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

Preparation for syndicate group work

IN ADDITION you have been put into a syndicate group with a number of other people Each group has beenallocated a company for which you will undertake a scenario planning exercise as follows

Page 7 of 11 Warwick Business School

Readings Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

Page 8 of 11 Warwick Business School

Readings Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

Page 9 of 11 Warwick Business School

Readings Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

Group 7 (A209) - Age NI

Marcus Tyrberg

Steven Vallender

Tapfuma Vazhure

Stuart Walker

David Willetts

Aghiad Yabroudi

Each person in the group should access information for their organisation (such as an annual report if one exists) viathe companys website You need to have read this and done some further research (see suggestions below) beforearrival as you will be working on scenarios for these organisations in exercises throughout the week starting on thefirst day

Your further research should help you gain an understanding of the organisation and the industry within which itoperates in terms of past events current policiestrends and future developmentsuncertainties You will be asked topool your findings from your own and the supplied material with the other members of your syndicate group You mayfind the following questions useful

What planning horizon is your organisation likely to use for strategy development

What are the key issuesconcerns currently affecting your organisation

Who are your organisations key competitors Check their websites

Who are the key stakeholders for your organisation

What is your organisations visionmission statement Check the website

Over the past 10 years has your organisation experienced change What have been the drivers of thischange

Useful websites

Good sources of information include annual reports analyst reports newspapers and journals such as the FinancialTimes and the Economist as well as industry reports I would encourage you to make use of the Internet whatfollows is a non-exhaustive list of useful websites

httpwwwshellcomhomecontentfuture_energyscenarios

Its well worth visiting this site as much of the practice and literature on scenarios has a basis in theShell experience of scenario planning This particular page provides an introduction to scenariosincluding Shells current New lens Scenarios to 2100 Theres also a video of Shells scenarios as wellas archive material of previous scenario exercises

wwwwfsorg

World Future Society a non-profit educational and scientific organisation for those interested in futuresstudies

Check the variety of on-line resources available - different futures thinkers - The Futurist magazine etc

httpnewoptimistscomthe-forumscenario-planning

Website describing the New Optimists experiences developing scenarios about the future of FoodSupply within the West Midlands over the next 50 years Have a look at their scenario wildcards section

Page 10 of 11 Warwick Business School

Readings Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

httpwwwbisgovukforesightabout-us

The following quote is taken from their website and gives a good summary of what theyre about andwhat you will find on the site

Since its creation in 1994 the Foresight Programme has helped the UKGovernment to think systematically about the future We advise government abouthow to ensure todays decisions are robust to future uncertainties By combining thelatest science and evidence with futures analysis we help policy makers tacklecomplex issues with a better understanding of the potential opportunities andchallenges that lie ahead

We do this in three ways

Major Foresight Projects in-depth two-year studies which build acomprehensive evidence base on major issues looking 20-80 years into thefuture

Policy Futures Projects shorter projects which provide futures andevidence analysis to fill a specific gap in existing policy understanding

The Foresight Horizon Scanning Centre training toolkits and networks tostrengthen futures thinking capacity and share best practice within andacross government

Our work is used to stimulate and inform the development of more effectivestrategies policies and priorities at national and international levels

Foresight is headed by Professor Sir Mark Walport the Government ChiefScientific Adviser who reports directly to the Prime Minister and Cabinet It is a partof the Government Office for Science within the Department for BusinessInnovation amp Skills

Accessed (190913)

wwwplausiblecustompublishcom

Norwegian consultancy for futures studies and scenario based strategic planning established in the1990s as an experiment in internet based research

Interesting reading on a variety of topics This year artificial cells self-driving cars etc

Mintel - accessed via Warwick Library Website

This is a useful site for reports concerning for example the future

Page 11 of 11 Warwick Business School

Readings Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

  • Download Details
  • Introduction
  • Monday
  • Tuesday
  • Wednesday
  • Thursday
  • Friday
  • Module assessment
  • Teaching faculty
  • Readings
  • Monday readings
  • Tuesday readings
  • Wednesday readings
  • Thursday readings
  • Friday readings
  • Preparation for syndicate group work

Teaching faculty

Frances OBrien (Module Organiser) - Associate Professor of Operational ResearchWBS

Frances OBriens research interests include the development and use of approaches tosupport strategy development in particular scenario planning and visioningmethodologies and the practice of combining OR and strategy tools by managementteams She holds a BSc (Joint Honours) in Mathematics and Classical Studies from SurreyUniversity and an MSc in Operational Research from Southampton University Shepreviously worked for the Operational Research Group of Ford of Europe as a consultantproviding modelling support on simulation manpower planning and allocation studies Sheis an active member of the UK Operational Research Society for which she chairs the ORand Strategy Special Interest Group

Martin Kunc - Associate Professor of Management Sciences WBS

Martin holds a PhD in Decision Science from London Business School He previouslyworked for Arthur Andersen and Chilean business schools He is a member of the GeneralCouncil of the UK Operational Research Society His research interests include the use ofmodelling to support strategy development in particular strategic decision-making supplychain design and human resource planning and the role of managerial cognition on theprocess of decision making especially in the area of complex decision-making Martin hasconducted consultancy and research projects for several organisations includingMasterfoods Standard amp Poors Lafarge and Warwickshire County Council

Page 1 of 1 Warwick Business School

Teaching Faculty Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

Readings

The textbook provided for the week is

OBrien FA and Dyson RG (2007) Supporting Strategy Frameworks Methods and ModelsChichester Wiley

Pre-readings are included in the online materials you should read these in advance of the session to which theyrelate Unless specified you should treat ALL case studies as required pre-reading Completing as much of thepre-reading as possible before you attend will provide you with a wider understanding of the topics to be discussedduring the module and therefore enhance your contribution to the class

Case study advice

Any case studies for this module purchased from the Case Centre are provided for your personal use on this modulefor which you are registered You may download and print one copy for your personal use

The case studies will expire on 9 February 2015 and will not be available to you after this We recommend that youdownload any cases immediately When you have taken your copy of a case study you may not make further copiesshare them with or sell the materials to any other person or use them for any purpose not connected with your studiesfor this MBA module Failure to follow these terms and conditions of use may result in disciplinary action

Page 1 of 11 Warwick Business School

Readings Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

Monday readings

Monday 5 January 2015

Preparation for exploring strategic agenda

Pre-reading OBrien and Dyson Chapter 3

Preparation for strategic direction

Pre-reading OBrien and Dyson Chapter 2

Collins JC and Porras JI (1996)Building Your Companys VisionHarvard Business Review September-O ctober pp 65-77To download this article click on the link above and search for the following term AN9609167704

OConnell D Hickerson K and Pillutla A (2011)Organizational Visioning An Integrative ReviewGroup and Organization Management 36 1 pp 103-25

Preparation for performance measurement

Pre-reading OBrien and Dyson Chapter 11

Kaplan SR and Norton DP (1996)Using the Balanced Scorecard as a Strategic Management SystemHarvard Business Review January-February pp 75-85To download this article click on the link above and search for the following term AN9601185348

Page 2 of 11 Warwick Business School

Readings Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

Tuesday readings

Tuesday 6 January 2015

Preparation for scenario planning

Pre-reading OBrien and Dyson Chapter 9

Yeoman I and Greenwood C (2006)From Fast Food to Slow Food The Prospects for Scotlands Cuisine to 2015Tomorrows World Consumer and Tourist 2 3

Page 3 of 11 Warwick Business School

Readings Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

Wednesday readings

Wednesday 7 January 2015

Preparation for rehearsing strategy with modelling

Pre-reading OBrien and Dyson Chapter 7

Senge P (1992)A shift of Mindin The Fifth DisciplineLondon Random House Business

Case study People Express (Ref 9-483-103)

Preparation for modelling for strategic development

Pre-reading Morecroft J (2007)Managing Business Growthin Strategic Modelling and Business Dynamics A Feedback Systems ApproachChichester Wiley

Page 4 of 11 Warwick Business School

Readings Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

Thursday readings

Thursday 8 January 2015

Preparation for generating strategy

Pre-reading OBrien and Dyson Chapters 6 and 9

Preparation for decision and risk analysis

Pre-reading OBrien and Dyson Chapter 10

Page 5 of 11 Warwick Business School

Readings Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

Friday readings

Friday 9 January 2015

There are no readings for this day

Page 6 of 11 Warwick Business School

Readings Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

Preparation for syndicate group work

IN ADDITION you have been put into a syndicate group with a number of other people Each group has beenallocated a company for which you will undertake a scenario planning exercise as follows

Page 7 of 11 Warwick Business School

Readings Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

Page 8 of 11 Warwick Business School

Readings Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

Page 9 of 11 Warwick Business School

Readings Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

Group 7 (A209) - Age NI

Marcus Tyrberg

Steven Vallender

Tapfuma Vazhure

Stuart Walker

David Willetts

Aghiad Yabroudi

Each person in the group should access information for their organisation (such as an annual report if one exists) viathe companys website You need to have read this and done some further research (see suggestions below) beforearrival as you will be working on scenarios for these organisations in exercises throughout the week starting on thefirst day

Your further research should help you gain an understanding of the organisation and the industry within which itoperates in terms of past events current policiestrends and future developmentsuncertainties You will be asked topool your findings from your own and the supplied material with the other members of your syndicate group You mayfind the following questions useful

What planning horizon is your organisation likely to use for strategy development

What are the key issuesconcerns currently affecting your organisation

Who are your organisations key competitors Check their websites

Who are the key stakeholders for your organisation

What is your organisations visionmission statement Check the website

Over the past 10 years has your organisation experienced change What have been the drivers of thischange

Useful websites

Good sources of information include annual reports analyst reports newspapers and journals such as the FinancialTimes and the Economist as well as industry reports I would encourage you to make use of the Internet whatfollows is a non-exhaustive list of useful websites

httpwwwshellcomhomecontentfuture_energyscenarios

Its well worth visiting this site as much of the practice and literature on scenarios has a basis in theShell experience of scenario planning This particular page provides an introduction to scenariosincluding Shells current New lens Scenarios to 2100 Theres also a video of Shells scenarios as wellas archive material of previous scenario exercises

wwwwfsorg

World Future Society a non-profit educational and scientific organisation for those interested in futuresstudies

Check the variety of on-line resources available - different futures thinkers - The Futurist magazine etc

httpnewoptimistscomthe-forumscenario-planning

Website describing the New Optimists experiences developing scenarios about the future of FoodSupply within the West Midlands over the next 50 years Have a look at their scenario wildcards section

Page 10 of 11 Warwick Business School

Readings Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

httpwwwbisgovukforesightabout-us

The following quote is taken from their website and gives a good summary of what theyre about andwhat you will find on the site

Since its creation in 1994 the Foresight Programme has helped the UKGovernment to think systematically about the future We advise government abouthow to ensure todays decisions are robust to future uncertainties By combining thelatest science and evidence with futures analysis we help policy makers tacklecomplex issues with a better understanding of the potential opportunities andchallenges that lie ahead

We do this in three ways

Major Foresight Projects in-depth two-year studies which build acomprehensive evidence base on major issues looking 20-80 years into thefuture

Policy Futures Projects shorter projects which provide futures andevidence analysis to fill a specific gap in existing policy understanding

The Foresight Horizon Scanning Centre training toolkits and networks tostrengthen futures thinking capacity and share best practice within andacross government

Our work is used to stimulate and inform the development of more effectivestrategies policies and priorities at national and international levels

Foresight is headed by Professor Sir Mark Walport the Government ChiefScientific Adviser who reports directly to the Prime Minister and Cabinet It is a partof the Government Office for Science within the Department for BusinessInnovation amp Skills

Accessed (190913)

wwwplausiblecustompublishcom

Norwegian consultancy for futures studies and scenario based strategic planning established in the1990s as an experiment in internet based research

Interesting reading on a variety of topics This year artificial cells self-driving cars etc

Mintel - accessed via Warwick Library Website

This is a useful site for reports concerning for example the future

Page 11 of 11 Warwick Business School

Readings Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

  • Download Details
  • Introduction
  • Monday
  • Tuesday
  • Wednesday
  • Thursday
  • Friday
  • Module assessment
  • Teaching faculty
  • Readings
  • Monday readings
  • Tuesday readings
  • Wednesday readings
  • Thursday readings
  • Friday readings
  • Preparation for syndicate group work

Readings

The textbook provided for the week is

OBrien FA and Dyson RG (2007) Supporting Strategy Frameworks Methods and ModelsChichester Wiley

Pre-readings are included in the online materials you should read these in advance of the session to which theyrelate Unless specified you should treat ALL case studies as required pre-reading Completing as much of thepre-reading as possible before you attend will provide you with a wider understanding of the topics to be discussedduring the module and therefore enhance your contribution to the class

Case study advice

Any case studies for this module purchased from the Case Centre are provided for your personal use on this modulefor which you are registered You may download and print one copy for your personal use

The case studies will expire on 9 February 2015 and will not be available to you after this We recommend that youdownload any cases immediately When you have taken your copy of a case study you may not make further copiesshare them with or sell the materials to any other person or use them for any purpose not connected with your studiesfor this MBA module Failure to follow these terms and conditions of use may result in disciplinary action

Page 1 of 11 Warwick Business School

Readings Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

Monday readings

Monday 5 January 2015

Preparation for exploring strategic agenda

Pre-reading OBrien and Dyson Chapter 3

Preparation for strategic direction

Pre-reading OBrien and Dyson Chapter 2

Collins JC and Porras JI (1996)Building Your Companys VisionHarvard Business Review September-O ctober pp 65-77To download this article click on the link above and search for the following term AN9609167704

OConnell D Hickerson K and Pillutla A (2011)Organizational Visioning An Integrative ReviewGroup and Organization Management 36 1 pp 103-25

Preparation for performance measurement

Pre-reading OBrien and Dyson Chapter 11

Kaplan SR and Norton DP (1996)Using the Balanced Scorecard as a Strategic Management SystemHarvard Business Review January-February pp 75-85To download this article click on the link above and search for the following term AN9601185348

Page 2 of 11 Warwick Business School

Readings Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

Tuesday readings

Tuesday 6 January 2015

Preparation for scenario planning

Pre-reading OBrien and Dyson Chapter 9

Yeoman I and Greenwood C (2006)From Fast Food to Slow Food The Prospects for Scotlands Cuisine to 2015Tomorrows World Consumer and Tourist 2 3

Page 3 of 11 Warwick Business School

Readings Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

Wednesday readings

Wednesday 7 January 2015

Preparation for rehearsing strategy with modelling

Pre-reading OBrien and Dyson Chapter 7

Senge P (1992)A shift of Mindin The Fifth DisciplineLondon Random House Business

Case study People Express (Ref 9-483-103)

Preparation for modelling for strategic development

Pre-reading Morecroft J (2007)Managing Business Growthin Strategic Modelling and Business Dynamics A Feedback Systems ApproachChichester Wiley

Page 4 of 11 Warwick Business School

Readings Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

Thursday readings

Thursday 8 January 2015

Preparation for generating strategy

Pre-reading OBrien and Dyson Chapters 6 and 9

Preparation for decision and risk analysis

Pre-reading OBrien and Dyson Chapter 10

Page 5 of 11 Warwick Business School

Readings Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

Friday readings

Friday 9 January 2015

There are no readings for this day

Page 6 of 11 Warwick Business School

Readings Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

Preparation for syndicate group work

IN ADDITION you have been put into a syndicate group with a number of other people Each group has beenallocated a company for which you will undertake a scenario planning exercise as follows

Page 7 of 11 Warwick Business School

Readings Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

Page 8 of 11 Warwick Business School

Readings Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

Page 9 of 11 Warwick Business School

Readings Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

Group 7 (A209) - Age NI

Marcus Tyrberg

Steven Vallender

Tapfuma Vazhure

Stuart Walker

David Willetts

Aghiad Yabroudi

Each person in the group should access information for their organisation (such as an annual report if one exists) viathe companys website You need to have read this and done some further research (see suggestions below) beforearrival as you will be working on scenarios for these organisations in exercises throughout the week starting on thefirst day

Your further research should help you gain an understanding of the organisation and the industry within which itoperates in terms of past events current policiestrends and future developmentsuncertainties You will be asked topool your findings from your own and the supplied material with the other members of your syndicate group You mayfind the following questions useful

What planning horizon is your organisation likely to use for strategy development

What are the key issuesconcerns currently affecting your organisation

Who are your organisations key competitors Check their websites

Who are the key stakeholders for your organisation

What is your organisations visionmission statement Check the website

Over the past 10 years has your organisation experienced change What have been the drivers of thischange

Useful websites

Good sources of information include annual reports analyst reports newspapers and journals such as the FinancialTimes and the Economist as well as industry reports I would encourage you to make use of the Internet whatfollows is a non-exhaustive list of useful websites

httpwwwshellcomhomecontentfuture_energyscenarios

Its well worth visiting this site as much of the practice and literature on scenarios has a basis in theShell experience of scenario planning This particular page provides an introduction to scenariosincluding Shells current New lens Scenarios to 2100 Theres also a video of Shells scenarios as wellas archive material of previous scenario exercises

wwwwfsorg

World Future Society a non-profit educational and scientific organisation for those interested in futuresstudies

Check the variety of on-line resources available - different futures thinkers - The Futurist magazine etc

httpnewoptimistscomthe-forumscenario-planning

Website describing the New Optimists experiences developing scenarios about the future of FoodSupply within the West Midlands over the next 50 years Have a look at their scenario wildcards section

Page 10 of 11 Warwick Business School

Readings Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

httpwwwbisgovukforesightabout-us

The following quote is taken from their website and gives a good summary of what theyre about andwhat you will find on the site

Since its creation in 1994 the Foresight Programme has helped the UKGovernment to think systematically about the future We advise government abouthow to ensure todays decisions are robust to future uncertainties By combining thelatest science and evidence with futures analysis we help policy makers tacklecomplex issues with a better understanding of the potential opportunities andchallenges that lie ahead

We do this in three ways

Major Foresight Projects in-depth two-year studies which build acomprehensive evidence base on major issues looking 20-80 years into thefuture

Policy Futures Projects shorter projects which provide futures andevidence analysis to fill a specific gap in existing policy understanding

The Foresight Horizon Scanning Centre training toolkits and networks tostrengthen futures thinking capacity and share best practice within andacross government

Our work is used to stimulate and inform the development of more effectivestrategies policies and priorities at national and international levels

Foresight is headed by Professor Sir Mark Walport the Government ChiefScientific Adviser who reports directly to the Prime Minister and Cabinet It is a partof the Government Office for Science within the Department for BusinessInnovation amp Skills

Accessed (190913)

wwwplausiblecustompublishcom

Norwegian consultancy for futures studies and scenario based strategic planning established in the1990s as an experiment in internet based research

Interesting reading on a variety of topics This year artificial cells self-driving cars etc

Mintel - accessed via Warwick Library Website

This is a useful site for reports concerning for example the future

Page 11 of 11 Warwick Business School

Readings Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

  • Download Details
  • Introduction
  • Monday
  • Tuesday
  • Wednesday
  • Thursday
  • Friday
  • Module assessment
  • Teaching faculty
  • Readings
  • Monday readings
  • Tuesday readings
  • Wednesday readings
  • Thursday readings
  • Friday readings
  • Preparation for syndicate group work

Monday readings

Monday 5 January 2015

Preparation for exploring strategic agenda

Pre-reading OBrien and Dyson Chapter 3

Preparation for strategic direction

Pre-reading OBrien and Dyson Chapter 2

Collins JC and Porras JI (1996)Building Your Companys VisionHarvard Business Review September-O ctober pp 65-77To download this article click on the link above and search for the following term AN9609167704

OConnell D Hickerson K and Pillutla A (2011)Organizational Visioning An Integrative ReviewGroup and Organization Management 36 1 pp 103-25

Preparation for performance measurement

Pre-reading OBrien and Dyson Chapter 11

Kaplan SR and Norton DP (1996)Using the Balanced Scorecard as a Strategic Management SystemHarvard Business Review January-February pp 75-85To download this article click on the link above and search for the following term AN9601185348

Page 2 of 11 Warwick Business School

Readings Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

Tuesday readings

Tuesday 6 January 2015

Preparation for scenario planning

Pre-reading OBrien and Dyson Chapter 9

Yeoman I and Greenwood C (2006)From Fast Food to Slow Food The Prospects for Scotlands Cuisine to 2015Tomorrows World Consumer and Tourist 2 3

Page 3 of 11 Warwick Business School

Readings Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

Wednesday readings

Wednesday 7 January 2015

Preparation for rehearsing strategy with modelling

Pre-reading OBrien and Dyson Chapter 7

Senge P (1992)A shift of Mindin The Fifth DisciplineLondon Random House Business

Case study People Express (Ref 9-483-103)

Preparation for modelling for strategic development

Pre-reading Morecroft J (2007)Managing Business Growthin Strategic Modelling and Business Dynamics A Feedback Systems ApproachChichester Wiley

Page 4 of 11 Warwick Business School

Readings Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

Thursday readings

Thursday 8 January 2015

Preparation for generating strategy

Pre-reading OBrien and Dyson Chapters 6 and 9

Preparation for decision and risk analysis

Pre-reading OBrien and Dyson Chapter 10

Page 5 of 11 Warwick Business School

Readings Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

Friday readings

Friday 9 January 2015

There are no readings for this day

Page 6 of 11 Warwick Business School

Readings Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

Preparation for syndicate group work

IN ADDITION you have been put into a syndicate group with a number of other people Each group has beenallocated a company for which you will undertake a scenario planning exercise as follows

Page 7 of 11 Warwick Business School

Readings Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

Page 8 of 11 Warwick Business School

Readings Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

Page 9 of 11 Warwick Business School

Readings Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

Group 7 (A209) - Age NI

Marcus Tyrberg

Steven Vallender

Tapfuma Vazhure

Stuart Walker

David Willetts

Aghiad Yabroudi

Each person in the group should access information for their organisation (such as an annual report if one exists) viathe companys website You need to have read this and done some further research (see suggestions below) beforearrival as you will be working on scenarios for these organisations in exercises throughout the week starting on thefirst day

Your further research should help you gain an understanding of the organisation and the industry within which itoperates in terms of past events current policiestrends and future developmentsuncertainties You will be asked topool your findings from your own and the supplied material with the other members of your syndicate group You mayfind the following questions useful

What planning horizon is your organisation likely to use for strategy development

What are the key issuesconcerns currently affecting your organisation

Who are your organisations key competitors Check their websites

Who are the key stakeholders for your organisation

What is your organisations visionmission statement Check the website

Over the past 10 years has your organisation experienced change What have been the drivers of thischange

Useful websites

Good sources of information include annual reports analyst reports newspapers and journals such as the FinancialTimes and the Economist as well as industry reports I would encourage you to make use of the Internet whatfollows is a non-exhaustive list of useful websites

httpwwwshellcomhomecontentfuture_energyscenarios

Its well worth visiting this site as much of the practice and literature on scenarios has a basis in theShell experience of scenario planning This particular page provides an introduction to scenariosincluding Shells current New lens Scenarios to 2100 Theres also a video of Shells scenarios as wellas archive material of previous scenario exercises

wwwwfsorg

World Future Society a non-profit educational and scientific organisation for those interested in futuresstudies

Check the variety of on-line resources available - different futures thinkers - The Futurist magazine etc

httpnewoptimistscomthe-forumscenario-planning

Website describing the New Optimists experiences developing scenarios about the future of FoodSupply within the West Midlands over the next 50 years Have a look at their scenario wildcards section

Page 10 of 11 Warwick Business School

Readings Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

httpwwwbisgovukforesightabout-us

The following quote is taken from their website and gives a good summary of what theyre about andwhat you will find on the site

Since its creation in 1994 the Foresight Programme has helped the UKGovernment to think systematically about the future We advise government abouthow to ensure todays decisions are robust to future uncertainties By combining thelatest science and evidence with futures analysis we help policy makers tacklecomplex issues with a better understanding of the potential opportunities andchallenges that lie ahead

We do this in three ways

Major Foresight Projects in-depth two-year studies which build acomprehensive evidence base on major issues looking 20-80 years into thefuture

Policy Futures Projects shorter projects which provide futures andevidence analysis to fill a specific gap in existing policy understanding

The Foresight Horizon Scanning Centre training toolkits and networks tostrengthen futures thinking capacity and share best practice within andacross government

Our work is used to stimulate and inform the development of more effectivestrategies policies and priorities at national and international levels

Foresight is headed by Professor Sir Mark Walport the Government ChiefScientific Adviser who reports directly to the Prime Minister and Cabinet It is a partof the Government Office for Science within the Department for BusinessInnovation amp Skills

Accessed (190913)

wwwplausiblecustompublishcom

Norwegian consultancy for futures studies and scenario based strategic planning established in the1990s as an experiment in internet based research

Interesting reading on a variety of topics This year artificial cells self-driving cars etc

Mintel - accessed via Warwick Library Website

This is a useful site for reports concerning for example the future

Page 11 of 11 Warwick Business School

Readings Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

  • Download Details
  • Introduction
  • Monday
  • Tuesday
  • Wednesday
  • Thursday
  • Friday
  • Module assessment
  • Teaching faculty
  • Readings
  • Monday readings
  • Tuesday readings
  • Wednesday readings
  • Thursday readings
  • Friday readings
  • Preparation for syndicate group work

Tuesday readings

Tuesday 6 January 2015

Preparation for scenario planning

Pre-reading OBrien and Dyson Chapter 9

Yeoman I and Greenwood C (2006)From Fast Food to Slow Food The Prospects for Scotlands Cuisine to 2015Tomorrows World Consumer and Tourist 2 3

Page 3 of 11 Warwick Business School

Readings Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

Wednesday readings

Wednesday 7 January 2015

Preparation for rehearsing strategy with modelling

Pre-reading OBrien and Dyson Chapter 7

Senge P (1992)A shift of Mindin The Fifth DisciplineLondon Random House Business

Case study People Express (Ref 9-483-103)

Preparation for modelling for strategic development

Pre-reading Morecroft J (2007)Managing Business Growthin Strategic Modelling and Business Dynamics A Feedback Systems ApproachChichester Wiley

Page 4 of 11 Warwick Business School

Readings Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

Thursday readings

Thursday 8 January 2015

Preparation for generating strategy

Pre-reading OBrien and Dyson Chapters 6 and 9

Preparation for decision and risk analysis

Pre-reading OBrien and Dyson Chapter 10

Page 5 of 11 Warwick Business School

Readings Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

Friday readings

Friday 9 January 2015

There are no readings for this day

Page 6 of 11 Warwick Business School

Readings Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

Preparation for syndicate group work

IN ADDITION you have been put into a syndicate group with a number of other people Each group has beenallocated a company for which you will undertake a scenario planning exercise as follows

Page 7 of 11 Warwick Business School

Readings Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

Page 8 of 11 Warwick Business School

Readings Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

Page 9 of 11 Warwick Business School

Readings Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

Group 7 (A209) - Age NI

Marcus Tyrberg

Steven Vallender

Tapfuma Vazhure

Stuart Walker

David Willetts

Aghiad Yabroudi

Each person in the group should access information for their organisation (such as an annual report if one exists) viathe companys website You need to have read this and done some further research (see suggestions below) beforearrival as you will be working on scenarios for these organisations in exercises throughout the week starting on thefirst day

Your further research should help you gain an understanding of the organisation and the industry within which itoperates in terms of past events current policiestrends and future developmentsuncertainties You will be asked topool your findings from your own and the supplied material with the other members of your syndicate group You mayfind the following questions useful

What planning horizon is your organisation likely to use for strategy development

What are the key issuesconcerns currently affecting your organisation

Who are your organisations key competitors Check their websites

Who are the key stakeholders for your organisation

What is your organisations visionmission statement Check the website

Over the past 10 years has your organisation experienced change What have been the drivers of thischange

Useful websites

Good sources of information include annual reports analyst reports newspapers and journals such as the FinancialTimes and the Economist as well as industry reports I would encourage you to make use of the Internet whatfollows is a non-exhaustive list of useful websites

httpwwwshellcomhomecontentfuture_energyscenarios

Its well worth visiting this site as much of the practice and literature on scenarios has a basis in theShell experience of scenario planning This particular page provides an introduction to scenariosincluding Shells current New lens Scenarios to 2100 Theres also a video of Shells scenarios as wellas archive material of previous scenario exercises

wwwwfsorg

World Future Society a non-profit educational and scientific organisation for those interested in futuresstudies

Check the variety of on-line resources available - different futures thinkers - The Futurist magazine etc

httpnewoptimistscomthe-forumscenario-planning

Website describing the New Optimists experiences developing scenarios about the future of FoodSupply within the West Midlands over the next 50 years Have a look at their scenario wildcards section

Page 10 of 11 Warwick Business School

Readings Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

httpwwwbisgovukforesightabout-us

The following quote is taken from their website and gives a good summary of what theyre about andwhat you will find on the site

Since its creation in 1994 the Foresight Programme has helped the UKGovernment to think systematically about the future We advise government abouthow to ensure todays decisions are robust to future uncertainties By combining thelatest science and evidence with futures analysis we help policy makers tacklecomplex issues with a better understanding of the potential opportunities andchallenges that lie ahead

We do this in three ways

Major Foresight Projects in-depth two-year studies which build acomprehensive evidence base on major issues looking 20-80 years into thefuture

Policy Futures Projects shorter projects which provide futures andevidence analysis to fill a specific gap in existing policy understanding

The Foresight Horizon Scanning Centre training toolkits and networks tostrengthen futures thinking capacity and share best practice within andacross government

Our work is used to stimulate and inform the development of more effectivestrategies policies and priorities at national and international levels

Foresight is headed by Professor Sir Mark Walport the Government ChiefScientific Adviser who reports directly to the Prime Minister and Cabinet It is a partof the Government Office for Science within the Department for BusinessInnovation amp Skills

Accessed (190913)

wwwplausiblecustompublishcom

Norwegian consultancy for futures studies and scenario based strategic planning established in the1990s as an experiment in internet based research

Interesting reading on a variety of topics This year artificial cells self-driving cars etc

Mintel - accessed via Warwick Library Website

This is a useful site for reports concerning for example the future

Page 11 of 11 Warwick Business School

Readings Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

  • Download Details
  • Introduction
  • Monday
  • Tuesday
  • Wednesday
  • Thursday
  • Friday
  • Module assessment
  • Teaching faculty
  • Readings
  • Monday readings
  • Tuesday readings
  • Wednesday readings
  • Thursday readings
  • Friday readings
  • Preparation for syndicate group work

Wednesday readings

Wednesday 7 January 2015

Preparation for rehearsing strategy with modelling

Pre-reading OBrien and Dyson Chapter 7

Senge P (1992)A shift of Mindin The Fifth DisciplineLondon Random House Business

Case study People Express (Ref 9-483-103)

Preparation for modelling for strategic development

Pre-reading Morecroft J (2007)Managing Business Growthin Strategic Modelling and Business Dynamics A Feedback Systems ApproachChichester Wiley

Page 4 of 11 Warwick Business School

Readings Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

Thursday readings

Thursday 8 January 2015

Preparation for generating strategy

Pre-reading OBrien and Dyson Chapters 6 and 9

Preparation for decision and risk analysis

Pre-reading OBrien and Dyson Chapter 10

Page 5 of 11 Warwick Business School

Readings Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

Friday readings

Friday 9 January 2015

There are no readings for this day

Page 6 of 11 Warwick Business School

Readings Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

Preparation for syndicate group work

IN ADDITION you have been put into a syndicate group with a number of other people Each group has beenallocated a company for which you will undertake a scenario planning exercise as follows

Page 7 of 11 Warwick Business School

Readings Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

Page 8 of 11 Warwick Business School

Readings Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

Page 9 of 11 Warwick Business School

Readings Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

Group 7 (A209) - Age NI

Marcus Tyrberg

Steven Vallender

Tapfuma Vazhure

Stuart Walker

David Willetts

Aghiad Yabroudi

Each person in the group should access information for their organisation (such as an annual report if one exists) viathe companys website You need to have read this and done some further research (see suggestions below) beforearrival as you will be working on scenarios for these organisations in exercises throughout the week starting on thefirst day

Your further research should help you gain an understanding of the organisation and the industry within which itoperates in terms of past events current policiestrends and future developmentsuncertainties You will be asked topool your findings from your own and the supplied material with the other members of your syndicate group You mayfind the following questions useful

What planning horizon is your organisation likely to use for strategy development

What are the key issuesconcerns currently affecting your organisation

Who are your organisations key competitors Check their websites

Who are the key stakeholders for your organisation

What is your organisations visionmission statement Check the website

Over the past 10 years has your organisation experienced change What have been the drivers of thischange

Useful websites

Good sources of information include annual reports analyst reports newspapers and journals such as the FinancialTimes and the Economist as well as industry reports I would encourage you to make use of the Internet whatfollows is a non-exhaustive list of useful websites

httpwwwshellcomhomecontentfuture_energyscenarios

Its well worth visiting this site as much of the practice and literature on scenarios has a basis in theShell experience of scenario planning This particular page provides an introduction to scenariosincluding Shells current New lens Scenarios to 2100 Theres also a video of Shells scenarios as wellas archive material of previous scenario exercises

wwwwfsorg

World Future Society a non-profit educational and scientific organisation for those interested in futuresstudies

Check the variety of on-line resources available - different futures thinkers - The Futurist magazine etc

httpnewoptimistscomthe-forumscenario-planning

Website describing the New Optimists experiences developing scenarios about the future of FoodSupply within the West Midlands over the next 50 years Have a look at their scenario wildcards section

Page 10 of 11 Warwick Business School

Readings Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

httpwwwbisgovukforesightabout-us

The following quote is taken from their website and gives a good summary of what theyre about andwhat you will find on the site

Since its creation in 1994 the Foresight Programme has helped the UKGovernment to think systematically about the future We advise government abouthow to ensure todays decisions are robust to future uncertainties By combining thelatest science and evidence with futures analysis we help policy makers tacklecomplex issues with a better understanding of the potential opportunities andchallenges that lie ahead

We do this in three ways

Major Foresight Projects in-depth two-year studies which build acomprehensive evidence base on major issues looking 20-80 years into thefuture

Policy Futures Projects shorter projects which provide futures andevidence analysis to fill a specific gap in existing policy understanding

The Foresight Horizon Scanning Centre training toolkits and networks tostrengthen futures thinking capacity and share best practice within andacross government

Our work is used to stimulate and inform the development of more effectivestrategies policies and priorities at national and international levels

Foresight is headed by Professor Sir Mark Walport the Government ChiefScientific Adviser who reports directly to the Prime Minister and Cabinet It is a partof the Government Office for Science within the Department for BusinessInnovation amp Skills

Accessed (190913)

wwwplausiblecustompublishcom

Norwegian consultancy for futures studies and scenario based strategic planning established in the1990s as an experiment in internet based research

Interesting reading on a variety of topics This year artificial cells self-driving cars etc

Mintel - accessed via Warwick Library Website

This is a useful site for reports concerning for example the future

Page 11 of 11 Warwick Business School

Readings Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

  • Download Details
  • Introduction
  • Monday
  • Tuesday
  • Wednesday
  • Thursday
  • Friday
  • Module assessment
  • Teaching faculty
  • Readings
  • Monday readings
  • Tuesday readings
  • Wednesday readings
  • Thursday readings
  • Friday readings
  • Preparation for syndicate group work

Thursday readings

Thursday 8 January 2015

Preparation for generating strategy

Pre-reading OBrien and Dyson Chapters 6 and 9

Preparation for decision and risk analysis

Pre-reading OBrien and Dyson Chapter 10

Page 5 of 11 Warwick Business School

Readings Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

Friday readings

Friday 9 January 2015

There are no readings for this day

Page 6 of 11 Warwick Business School

Readings Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

Preparation for syndicate group work

IN ADDITION you have been put into a syndicate group with a number of other people Each group has beenallocated a company for which you will undertake a scenario planning exercise as follows

Page 7 of 11 Warwick Business School

Readings Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

Page 8 of 11 Warwick Business School

Readings Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

Page 9 of 11 Warwick Business School

Readings Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

Group 7 (A209) - Age NI

Marcus Tyrberg

Steven Vallender

Tapfuma Vazhure

Stuart Walker

David Willetts

Aghiad Yabroudi

Each person in the group should access information for their organisation (such as an annual report if one exists) viathe companys website You need to have read this and done some further research (see suggestions below) beforearrival as you will be working on scenarios for these organisations in exercises throughout the week starting on thefirst day

Your further research should help you gain an understanding of the organisation and the industry within which itoperates in terms of past events current policiestrends and future developmentsuncertainties You will be asked topool your findings from your own and the supplied material with the other members of your syndicate group You mayfind the following questions useful

What planning horizon is your organisation likely to use for strategy development

What are the key issuesconcerns currently affecting your organisation

Who are your organisations key competitors Check their websites

Who are the key stakeholders for your organisation

What is your organisations visionmission statement Check the website

Over the past 10 years has your organisation experienced change What have been the drivers of thischange

Useful websites

Good sources of information include annual reports analyst reports newspapers and journals such as the FinancialTimes and the Economist as well as industry reports I would encourage you to make use of the Internet whatfollows is a non-exhaustive list of useful websites

httpwwwshellcomhomecontentfuture_energyscenarios

Its well worth visiting this site as much of the practice and literature on scenarios has a basis in theShell experience of scenario planning This particular page provides an introduction to scenariosincluding Shells current New lens Scenarios to 2100 Theres also a video of Shells scenarios as wellas archive material of previous scenario exercises

wwwwfsorg

World Future Society a non-profit educational and scientific organisation for those interested in futuresstudies

Check the variety of on-line resources available - different futures thinkers - The Futurist magazine etc

httpnewoptimistscomthe-forumscenario-planning

Website describing the New Optimists experiences developing scenarios about the future of FoodSupply within the West Midlands over the next 50 years Have a look at their scenario wildcards section

Page 10 of 11 Warwick Business School

Readings Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

httpwwwbisgovukforesightabout-us

The following quote is taken from their website and gives a good summary of what theyre about andwhat you will find on the site

Since its creation in 1994 the Foresight Programme has helped the UKGovernment to think systematically about the future We advise government abouthow to ensure todays decisions are robust to future uncertainties By combining thelatest science and evidence with futures analysis we help policy makers tacklecomplex issues with a better understanding of the potential opportunities andchallenges that lie ahead

We do this in three ways

Major Foresight Projects in-depth two-year studies which build acomprehensive evidence base on major issues looking 20-80 years into thefuture

Policy Futures Projects shorter projects which provide futures andevidence analysis to fill a specific gap in existing policy understanding

The Foresight Horizon Scanning Centre training toolkits and networks tostrengthen futures thinking capacity and share best practice within andacross government

Our work is used to stimulate and inform the development of more effectivestrategies policies and priorities at national and international levels

Foresight is headed by Professor Sir Mark Walport the Government ChiefScientific Adviser who reports directly to the Prime Minister and Cabinet It is a partof the Government Office for Science within the Department for BusinessInnovation amp Skills

Accessed (190913)

wwwplausiblecustompublishcom

Norwegian consultancy for futures studies and scenario based strategic planning established in the1990s as an experiment in internet based research

Interesting reading on a variety of topics This year artificial cells self-driving cars etc

Mintel - accessed via Warwick Library Website

This is a useful site for reports concerning for example the future

Page 11 of 11 Warwick Business School

Readings Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

  • Download Details
  • Introduction
  • Monday
  • Tuesday
  • Wednesday
  • Thursday
  • Friday
  • Module assessment
  • Teaching faculty
  • Readings
  • Monday readings
  • Tuesday readings
  • Wednesday readings
  • Thursday readings
  • Friday readings
  • Preparation for syndicate group work

Friday readings

Friday 9 January 2015

There are no readings for this day

Page 6 of 11 Warwick Business School

Readings Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

Preparation for syndicate group work

IN ADDITION you have been put into a syndicate group with a number of other people Each group has beenallocated a company for which you will undertake a scenario planning exercise as follows

Page 7 of 11 Warwick Business School

Readings Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

Page 8 of 11 Warwick Business School

Readings Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

Page 9 of 11 Warwick Business School

Readings Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

Group 7 (A209) - Age NI

Marcus Tyrberg

Steven Vallender

Tapfuma Vazhure

Stuart Walker

David Willetts

Aghiad Yabroudi

Each person in the group should access information for their organisation (such as an annual report if one exists) viathe companys website You need to have read this and done some further research (see suggestions below) beforearrival as you will be working on scenarios for these organisations in exercises throughout the week starting on thefirst day

Your further research should help you gain an understanding of the organisation and the industry within which itoperates in terms of past events current policiestrends and future developmentsuncertainties You will be asked topool your findings from your own and the supplied material with the other members of your syndicate group You mayfind the following questions useful

What planning horizon is your organisation likely to use for strategy development

What are the key issuesconcerns currently affecting your organisation

Who are your organisations key competitors Check their websites

Who are the key stakeholders for your organisation

What is your organisations visionmission statement Check the website

Over the past 10 years has your organisation experienced change What have been the drivers of thischange

Useful websites

Good sources of information include annual reports analyst reports newspapers and journals such as the FinancialTimes and the Economist as well as industry reports I would encourage you to make use of the Internet whatfollows is a non-exhaustive list of useful websites

httpwwwshellcomhomecontentfuture_energyscenarios

Its well worth visiting this site as much of the practice and literature on scenarios has a basis in theShell experience of scenario planning This particular page provides an introduction to scenariosincluding Shells current New lens Scenarios to 2100 Theres also a video of Shells scenarios as wellas archive material of previous scenario exercises

wwwwfsorg

World Future Society a non-profit educational and scientific organisation for those interested in futuresstudies

Check the variety of on-line resources available - different futures thinkers - The Futurist magazine etc

httpnewoptimistscomthe-forumscenario-planning

Website describing the New Optimists experiences developing scenarios about the future of FoodSupply within the West Midlands over the next 50 years Have a look at their scenario wildcards section

Page 10 of 11 Warwick Business School

Readings Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

httpwwwbisgovukforesightabout-us

The following quote is taken from their website and gives a good summary of what theyre about andwhat you will find on the site

Since its creation in 1994 the Foresight Programme has helped the UKGovernment to think systematically about the future We advise government abouthow to ensure todays decisions are robust to future uncertainties By combining thelatest science and evidence with futures analysis we help policy makers tacklecomplex issues with a better understanding of the potential opportunities andchallenges that lie ahead

We do this in three ways

Major Foresight Projects in-depth two-year studies which build acomprehensive evidence base on major issues looking 20-80 years into thefuture

Policy Futures Projects shorter projects which provide futures andevidence analysis to fill a specific gap in existing policy understanding

The Foresight Horizon Scanning Centre training toolkits and networks tostrengthen futures thinking capacity and share best practice within andacross government

Our work is used to stimulate and inform the development of more effectivestrategies policies and priorities at national and international levels

Foresight is headed by Professor Sir Mark Walport the Government ChiefScientific Adviser who reports directly to the Prime Minister and Cabinet It is a partof the Government Office for Science within the Department for BusinessInnovation amp Skills

Accessed (190913)

wwwplausiblecustompublishcom

Norwegian consultancy for futures studies and scenario based strategic planning established in the1990s as an experiment in internet based research

Interesting reading on a variety of topics This year artificial cells self-driving cars etc

Mintel - accessed via Warwick Library Website

This is a useful site for reports concerning for example the future

Page 11 of 11 Warwick Business School

Readings Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

  • Download Details
  • Introduction
  • Monday
  • Tuesday
  • Wednesday
  • Thursday
  • Friday
  • Module assessment
  • Teaching faculty
  • Readings
  • Monday readings
  • Tuesday readings
  • Wednesday readings
  • Thursday readings
  • Friday readings
  • Preparation for syndicate group work

Preparation for syndicate group work

IN ADDITION you have been put into a syndicate group with a number of other people Each group has beenallocated a company for which you will undertake a scenario planning exercise as follows

Page 7 of 11 Warwick Business School

Readings Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

Page 8 of 11 Warwick Business School

Readings Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

Page 9 of 11 Warwick Business School

Readings Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

Group 7 (A209) - Age NI

Marcus Tyrberg

Steven Vallender

Tapfuma Vazhure

Stuart Walker

David Willetts

Aghiad Yabroudi

Each person in the group should access information for their organisation (such as an annual report if one exists) viathe companys website You need to have read this and done some further research (see suggestions below) beforearrival as you will be working on scenarios for these organisations in exercises throughout the week starting on thefirst day

Your further research should help you gain an understanding of the organisation and the industry within which itoperates in terms of past events current policiestrends and future developmentsuncertainties You will be asked topool your findings from your own and the supplied material with the other members of your syndicate group You mayfind the following questions useful

What planning horizon is your organisation likely to use for strategy development

What are the key issuesconcerns currently affecting your organisation

Who are your organisations key competitors Check their websites

Who are the key stakeholders for your organisation

What is your organisations visionmission statement Check the website

Over the past 10 years has your organisation experienced change What have been the drivers of thischange

Useful websites

Good sources of information include annual reports analyst reports newspapers and journals such as the FinancialTimes and the Economist as well as industry reports I would encourage you to make use of the Internet whatfollows is a non-exhaustive list of useful websites

httpwwwshellcomhomecontentfuture_energyscenarios

Its well worth visiting this site as much of the practice and literature on scenarios has a basis in theShell experience of scenario planning This particular page provides an introduction to scenariosincluding Shells current New lens Scenarios to 2100 Theres also a video of Shells scenarios as wellas archive material of previous scenario exercises

wwwwfsorg

World Future Society a non-profit educational and scientific organisation for those interested in futuresstudies

Check the variety of on-line resources available - different futures thinkers - The Futurist magazine etc

httpnewoptimistscomthe-forumscenario-planning

Website describing the New Optimists experiences developing scenarios about the future of FoodSupply within the West Midlands over the next 50 years Have a look at their scenario wildcards section

Page 10 of 11 Warwick Business School

Readings Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

httpwwwbisgovukforesightabout-us

The following quote is taken from their website and gives a good summary of what theyre about andwhat you will find on the site

Since its creation in 1994 the Foresight Programme has helped the UKGovernment to think systematically about the future We advise government abouthow to ensure todays decisions are robust to future uncertainties By combining thelatest science and evidence with futures analysis we help policy makers tacklecomplex issues with a better understanding of the potential opportunities andchallenges that lie ahead

We do this in three ways

Major Foresight Projects in-depth two-year studies which build acomprehensive evidence base on major issues looking 20-80 years into thefuture

Policy Futures Projects shorter projects which provide futures andevidence analysis to fill a specific gap in existing policy understanding

The Foresight Horizon Scanning Centre training toolkits and networks tostrengthen futures thinking capacity and share best practice within andacross government

Our work is used to stimulate and inform the development of more effectivestrategies policies and priorities at national and international levels

Foresight is headed by Professor Sir Mark Walport the Government ChiefScientific Adviser who reports directly to the Prime Minister and Cabinet It is a partof the Government Office for Science within the Department for BusinessInnovation amp Skills

Accessed (190913)

wwwplausiblecustompublishcom

Norwegian consultancy for futures studies and scenario based strategic planning established in the1990s as an experiment in internet based research

Interesting reading on a variety of topics This year artificial cells self-driving cars etc

Mintel - accessed via Warwick Library Website

This is a useful site for reports concerning for example the future

Page 11 of 11 Warwick Business School

Readings Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

  • Download Details
  • Introduction
  • Monday
  • Tuesday
  • Wednesday
  • Thursday
  • Friday
  • Module assessment
  • Teaching faculty
  • Readings
  • Monday readings
  • Tuesday readings
  • Wednesday readings
  • Thursday readings
  • Friday readings
  • Preparation for syndicate group work

Page 8 of 11 Warwick Business School

Readings Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

Page 9 of 11 Warwick Business School

Readings Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

Group 7 (A209) - Age NI

Marcus Tyrberg

Steven Vallender

Tapfuma Vazhure

Stuart Walker

David Willetts

Aghiad Yabroudi

Each person in the group should access information for their organisation (such as an annual report if one exists) viathe companys website You need to have read this and done some further research (see suggestions below) beforearrival as you will be working on scenarios for these organisations in exercises throughout the week starting on thefirst day

Your further research should help you gain an understanding of the organisation and the industry within which itoperates in terms of past events current policiestrends and future developmentsuncertainties You will be asked topool your findings from your own and the supplied material with the other members of your syndicate group You mayfind the following questions useful

What planning horizon is your organisation likely to use for strategy development

What are the key issuesconcerns currently affecting your organisation

Who are your organisations key competitors Check their websites

Who are the key stakeholders for your organisation

What is your organisations visionmission statement Check the website

Over the past 10 years has your organisation experienced change What have been the drivers of thischange

Useful websites

Good sources of information include annual reports analyst reports newspapers and journals such as the FinancialTimes and the Economist as well as industry reports I would encourage you to make use of the Internet whatfollows is a non-exhaustive list of useful websites

httpwwwshellcomhomecontentfuture_energyscenarios

Its well worth visiting this site as much of the practice and literature on scenarios has a basis in theShell experience of scenario planning This particular page provides an introduction to scenariosincluding Shells current New lens Scenarios to 2100 Theres also a video of Shells scenarios as wellas archive material of previous scenario exercises

wwwwfsorg

World Future Society a non-profit educational and scientific organisation for those interested in futuresstudies

Check the variety of on-line resources available - different futures thinkers - The Futurist magazine etc

httpnewoptimistscomthe-forumscenario-planning

Website describing the New Optimists experiences developing scenarios about the future of FoodSupply within the West Midlands over the next 50 years Have a look at their scenario wildcards section

Page 10 of 11 Warwick Business School

Readings Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

httpwwwbisgovukforesightabout-us

The following quote is taken from their website and gives a good summary of what theyre about andwhat you will find on the site

Since its creation in 1994 the Foresight Programme has helped the UKGovernment to think systematically about the future We advise government abouthow to ensure todays decisions are robust to future uncertainties By combining thelatest science and evidence with futures analysis we help policy makers tacklecomplex issues with a better understanding of the potential opportunities andchallenges that lie ahead

We do this in three ways

Major Foresight Projects in-depth two-year studies which build acomprehensive evidence base on major issues looking 20-80 years into thefuture

Policy Futures Projects shorter projects which provide futures andevidence analysis to fill a specific gap in existing policy understanding

The Foresight Horizon Scanning Centre training toolkits and networks tostrengthen futures thinking capacity and share best practice within andacross government

Our work is used to stimulate and inform the development of more effectivestrategies policies and priorities at national and international levels

Foresight is headed by Professor Sir Mark Walport the Government ChiefScientific Adviser who reports directly to the Prime Minister and Cabinet It is a partof the Government Office for Science within the Department for BusinessInnovation amp Skills

Accessed (190913)

wwwplausiblecustompublishcom

Norwegian consultancy for futures studies and scenario based strategic planning established in the1990s as an experiment in internet based research

Interesting reading on a variety of topics This year artificial cells self-driving cars etc

Mintel - accessed via Warwick Library Website

This is a useful site for reports concerning for example the future

Page 11 of 11 Warwick Business School

Readings Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

  • Download Details
  • Introduction
  • Monday
  • Tuesday
  • Wednesday
  • Thursday
  • Friday
  • Module assessment
  • Teaching faculty
  • Readings
  • Monday readings
  • Tuesday readings
  • Wednesday readings
  • Thursday readings
  • Friday readings
  • Preparation for syndicate group work

Page 9 of 11 Warwick Business School

Readings Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

Group 7 (A209) - Age NI

Marcus Tyrberg

Steven Vallender

Tapfuma Vazhure

Stuart Walker

David Willetts

Aghiad Yabroudi

Each person in the group should access information for their organisation (such as an annual report if one exists) viathe companys website You need to have read this and done some further research (see suggestions below) beforearrival as you will be working on scenarios for these organisations in exercises throughout the week starting on thefirst day

Your further research should help you gain an understanding of the organisation and the industry within which itoperates in terms of past events current policiestrends and future developmentsuncertainties You will be asked topool your findings from your own and the supplied material with the other members of your syndicate group You mayfind the following questions useful

What planning horizon is your organisation likely to use for strategy development

What are the key issuesconcerns currently affecting your organisation

Who are your organisations key competitors Check their websites

Who are the key stakeholders for your organisation

What is your organisations visionmission statement Check the website

Over the past 10 years has your organisation experienced change What have been the drivers of thischange

Useful websites

Good sources of information include annual reports analyst reports newspapers and journals such as the FinancialTimes and the Economist as well as industry reports I would encourage you to make use of the Internet whatfollows is a non-exhaustive list of useful websites

httpwwwshellcomhomecontentfuture_energyscenarios

Its well worth visiting this site as much of the practice and literature on scenarios has a basis in theShell experience of scenario planning This particular page provides an introduction to scenariosincluding Shells current New lens Scenarios to 2100 Theres also a video of Shells scenarios as wellas archive material of previous scenario exercises

wwwwfsorg

World Future Society a non-profit educational and scientific organisation for those interested in futuresstudies

Check the variety of on-line resources available - different futures thinkers - The Futurist magazine etc

httpnewoptimistscomthe-forumscenario-planning

Website describing the New Optimists experiences developing scenarios about the future of FoodSupply within the West Midlands over the next 50 years Have a look at their scenario wildcards section

Page 10 of 11 Warwick Business School

Readings Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

httpwwwbisgovukforesightabout-us

The following quote is taken from their website and gives a good summary of what theyre about andwhat you will find on the site

Since its creation in 1994 the Foresight Programme has helped the UKGovernment to think systematically about the future We advise government abouthow to ensure todays decisions are robust to future uncertainties By combining thelatest science and evidence with futures analysis we help policy makers tacklecomplex issues with a better understanding of the potential opportunities andchallenges that lie ahead

We do this in three ways

Major Foresight Projects in-depth two-year studies which build acomprehensive evidence base on major issues looking 20-80 years into thefuture

Policy Futures Projects shorter projects which provide futures andevidence analysis to fill a specific gap in existing policy understanding

The Foresight Horizon Scanning Centre training toolkits and networks tostrengthen futures thinking capacity and share best practice within andacross government

Our work is used to stimulate and inform the development of more effectivestrategies policies and priorities at national and international levels

Foresight is headed by Professor Sir Mark Walport the Government ChiefScientific Adviser who reports directly to the Prime Minister and Cabinet It is a partof the Government Office for Science within the Department for BusinessInnovation amp Skills

Accessed (190913)

wwwplausiblecustompublishcom

Norwegian consultancy for futures studies and scenario based strategic planning established in the1990s as an experiment in internet based research

Interesting reading on a variety of topics This year artificial cells self-driving cars etc

Mintel - accessed via Warwick Library Website

This is a useful site for reports concerning for example the future

Page 11 of 11 Warwick Business School

Readings Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

  • Download Details
  • Introduction
  • Monday
  • Tuesday
  • Wednesday
  • Thursday
  • Friday
  • Module assessment
  • Teaching faculty
  • Readings
  • Monday readings
  • Tuesday readings
  • Wednesday readings
  • Thursday readings
  • Friday readings
  • Preparation for syndicate group work

Group 7 (A209) - Age NI

Marcus Tyrberg

Steven Vallender

Tapfuma Vazhure

Stuart Walker

David Willetts

Aghiad Yabroudi

Each person in the group should access information for their organisation (such as an annual report if one exists) viathe companys website You need to have read this and done some further research (see suggestions below) beforearrival as you will be working on scenarios for these organisations in exercises throughout the week starting on thefirst day

Your further research should help you gain an understanding of the organisation and the industry within which itoperates in terms of past events current policiestrends and future developmentsuncertainties You will be asked topool your findings from your own and the supplied material with the other members of your syndicate group You mayfind the following questions useful

What planning horizon is your organisation likely to use for strategy development

What are the key issuesconcerns currently affecting your organisation

Who are your organisations key competitors Check their websites

Who are the key stakeholders for your organisation

What is your organisations visionmission statement Check the website

Over the past 10 years has your organisation experienced change What have been the drivers of thischange

Useful websites

Good sources of information include annual reports analyst reports newspapers and journals such as the FinancialTimes and the Economist as well as industry reports I would encourage you to make use of the Internet whatfollows is a non-exhaustive list of useful websites

httpwwwshellcomhomecontentfuture_energyscenarios

Its well worth visiting this site as much of the practice and literature on scenarios has a basis in theShell experience of scenario planning This particular page provides an introduction to scenariosincluding Shells current New lens Scenarios to 2100 Theres also a video of Shells scenarios as wellas archive material of previous scenario exercises

wwwwfsorg

World Future Society a non-profit educational and scientific organisation for those interested in futuresstudies

Check the variety of on-line resources available - different futures thinkers - The Futurist magazine etc

httpnewoptimistscomthe-forumscenario-planning

Website describing the New Optimists experiences developing scenarios about the future of FoodSupply within the West Midlands over the next 50 years Have a look at their scenario wildcards section

Page 10 of 11 Warwick Business School

Readings Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

httpwwwbisgovukforesightabout-us

The following quote is taken from their website and gives a good summary of what theyre about andwhat you will find on the site

Since its creation in 1994 the Foresight Programme has helped the UKGovernment to think systematically about the future We advise government abouthow to ensure todays decisions are robust to future uncertainties By combining thelatest science and evidence with futures analysis we help policy makers tacklecomplex issues with a better understanding of the potential opportunities andchallenges that lie ahead

We do this in three ways

Major Foresight Projects in-depth two-year studies which build acomprehensive evidence base on major issues looking 20-80 years into thefuture

Policy Futures Projects shorter projects which provide futures andevidence analysis to fill a specific gap in existing policy understanding

The Foresight Horizon Scanning Centre training toolkits and networks tostrengthen futures thinking capacity and share best practice within andacross government

Our work is used to stimulate and inform the development of more effectivestrategies policies and priorities at national and international levels

Foresight is headed by Professor Sir Mark Walport the Government ChiefScientific Adviser who reports directly to the Prime Minister and Cabinet It is a partof the Government Office for Science within the Department for BusinessInnovation amp Skills

Accessed (190913)

wwwplausiblecustompublishcom

Norwegian consultancy for futures studies and scenario based strategic planning established in the1990s as an experiment in internet based research

Interesting reading on a variety of topics This year artificial cells self-driving cars etc

Mintel - accessed via Warwick Library Website

This is a useful site for reports concerning for example the future

Page 11 of 11 Warwick Business School

Readings Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

  • Download Details
  • Introduction
  • Monday
  • Tuesday
  • Wednesday
  • Thursday
  • Friday
  • Module assessment
  • Teaching faculty
  • Readings
  • Monday readings
  • Tuesday readings
  • Wednesday readings
  • Thursday readings
  • Friday readings
  • Preparation for syndicate group work

httpwwwbisgovukforesightabout-us

The following quote is taken from their website and gives a good summary of what theyre about andwhat you will find on the site

Since its creation in 1994 the Foresight Programme has helped the UKGovernment to think systematically about the future We advise government abouthow to ensure todays decisions are robust to future uncertainties By combining thelatest science and evidence with futures analysis we help policy makers tacklecomplex issues with a better understanding of the potential opportunities andchallenges that lie ahead

We do this in three ways

Major Foresight Projects in-depth two-year studies which build acomprehensive evidence base on major issues looking 20-80 years into thefuture

Policy Futures Projects shorter projects which provide futures andevidence analysis to fill a specific gap in existing policy understanding

The Foresight Horizon Scanning Centre training toolkits and networks tostrengthen futures thinking capacity and share best practice within andacross government

Our work is used to stimulate and inform the development of more effectivestrategies policies and priorities at national and international levels

Foresight is headed by Professor Sir Mark Walport the Government ChiefScientific Adviser who reports directly to the Prime Minister and Cabinet It is a partof the Government Office for Science within the Department for BusinessInnovation amp Skills

Accessed (190913)

wwwplausiblecustompublishcom

Norwegian consultancy for futures studies and scenario based strategic planning established in the1990s as an experiment in internet based research

Interesting reading on a variety of topics This year artificial cells self-driving cars etc

Mintel - accessed via Warwick Library Website

This is a useful site for reports concerning for example the future

Page 11 of 11 Warwick Business School

Readings Strategic Development - Methods amp Models

  • Download Details
  • Introduction
  • Monday
  • Tuesday
  • Wednesday
  • Thursday
  • Friday
  • Module assessment
  • Teaching faculty
  • Readings
  • Monday readings
  • Tuesday readings
  • Wednesday readings
  • Thursday readings
  • Friday readings
  • Preparation for syndicate group work