storyboard for conjoint vaac bp/6 and vasag/8 · where and when… monday tuesday wednesday...

Storyboard for conjoint VAAC BP/6 and VASAG/8 Wellington, New Zealand, 5 to 9 November 2018

Where and when… Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday

Morning (0900 start)

Everyone at CAA NZ

VAAC BP at MetService

VASAG at CAA NZ


VASAG at CAA NZ

----------------- Everyone at

CAA NZ before lunch

Everyone at CAA NZ

Everyone at CAA NZ

Afternoon (1330 start)

Everyone at CAA NZ


VASAG at CAA NZ

Everyone at CAA NZ

Everyone at CAA NZ

Everyone at CAA NZ

CAA NZ: https://goo.gl/maps/gdQzEMnraao MetService: https://goo.gl/maps/gBdVC8JCAhr

https://goo.gl/maps/gdQzEMnraao

https://goo.gl/maps/gdQzEMnraao

https://goo.gl/maps/gBdVC8JCAhr

What and who… MONDAY 5 NOVEMBER

JOINT SESSION TUESDAY 6 NOVEMBER

PARALLEL SESSIONS WEDNESDAY 7 NOVEMBER PARALLEL & JOINT SESSIONS

THURSDAY 8 NOVEMBER THEMATIC OPEN SESSION

FRIDAY 9 NOVEMBER THEMATIC OPEN SESSION

0830 Registration @ CAA NZ

— VAAC BP @ MetService

VASAG @ CAA NZ

— VAAC BP @ MetService

VASAG @ CAA NZ

0830 Registration for new participants @ CAA NZ

0830 Registration for new participants @ CAA NZ

0900 Welcome, opening remarks

[Ian]

Objectives, working arrangements

0900 Status of open VAAC BP outcomes

(2016 & 2017) [Ian]

Status of open VASAG actions (2015 & 2017)

[Andrew & Larry]

0900 Additional VAAC

discussions including IATA

request for review of

VAACs [Ian] (VAAC managers

only)

Publications and outreach suggestions [Andrew]

IWVA proposals

[Andrew & Larry]

0900 Welcome, opening remarks

[Ian]

Objectives, working arrangements

0900 Welcome to new participants

[Ian] Plan for the day

0930 INS and OUTS modelling tables

update [Matt & Claire]

0930 Satellite inter-

comparisons of discernible ash

[Kazuki]

ESP database for restless volcanoes

[Larry & Sam]

0930 VAAC Personnel Competency

[Ian]

0915 Volcanic Ash Impacts on Jet Engines Update

[Rory]

1030 Break 1030 Break 1030 Break 1030 Break 1030 Break

1100 VAACs strength of evidence check-lists

[Kazuki, Jarrad & Mike]

1100 Forecast verification and

VAAC KPIs [Mark]

Encounters database and severity index

[Dave]

1100 JOINT SESSION @ CAA NZ Parallel session reporting

[Ian, Andrew & Larry]


[Ian]

1100 Quantitative volcanic ash forecasts –

progress [Larry & Andrew]

1200 Lunch / Group photo 1200 Lunch 1200 Lunch 1200 Lunch 1200 Lunch

1330 VONA and aviation colour codes

[Dave & Sam]

1330 VAAC collaboration

tools [Dov]

Satellite advancements

(including SCOPE-

Nowcasting) [Mike]

1330

JOINT SESSION @ CAA NZ

IWVA proposal from VASAG & feedback [Andrew & Larry]

WMO Constituent Bodies Reform and impacts on CAeM governance/structures [Ian]


[Ian]

1330 Quantitative volcanic ash forecasts –

recommendations [Ian]

1530 Break 1500 Break 1530 Break 1530 Break 1530 Break

1600 Volcanic hazard monitoring and

observing capabilities [Dave & Sam]

1515 IWXXM developments

[Dov & Patrick]

Modelling advancements

(including probability & ESP) [Claire]

1600 JOINT SESSION @ CAA NZ

Wrap-up and close [Ian, Andrew & Larry]

1600 State Volcano Observatory skills, needs & capacity

development [Larry & Andrew]

1600 VA sulphur dioxide [Larry & Andrew]

Wrap-up and close [Ian]

1700 Close 1630 Close then ‘Icebreaker’ at MetService

1700 Close Close 1700 Close

Closed

VASAG/6 (2015) VAAC BP/4 (2016) VAAC BP/5 (2017) METP WG-MOG IAVW (2017) METP WG-MISD VASD (2017) VASAG/7 (2017)

4/03 - Modelling (Matt)

4/16 - Updates to METP (Greg)

6/2 - Publications (Andrew)

6/6 - ESP database (Larry)

6/7 - Outreach (Alex w/ VASAG)

6/10 - Use of radar data (Sara)

5/01 - VAAC collaboration tools (Dov)

5/02 - IWXXM versions (Patrick)

5/03 - IWXXM implementation (Dov)

5/04 - VONA and aviation colour codes (Greg/Ian)

5/10 - VONA and aviation colour codes (Don/Partick et al.)

7/3 - VONA and aviation colour codes (Dave, Sam. Sara)

5/05 - KPIs (Anton) 5/2 - KPIs (VAACs/Anton)

5/06 - No Ash (Emile) 5/6 - No Ash (VAACs)

5/07 - Discernible ash strength of evidence (Adele/Kazuki)

7/1 - Strength of evidence checklists (Mike)

5/08 - Satellite inter-comparison (Adele/Kazuki)

5/09 – Re-suspended ash (Yohko) 5/9 – Re-suspended ash (Don/Greg et al.)

5/10 - T+0 confidence (Emile) 5/3 - T+0 confidence levels trial cessation [Decision]

KEY 5/11 - Model charts VAG and SVA (Greg) 5/4 - Model charts (WMO/Greg)

OPEN 5/12 - T+24 VAG trial (Greg) 5/5 - T+24 VAG trial cessation [Decision]

CLOSED 5/13 - Supplementary products Concentration charts (Anton)

5/12 - Quantitative VA contamination info. (Patrick et al.)

7/2 - State of science review for MOG (Larry et al.)

5/14 - SO2 (Greg) 3/1 - SO2 studies/tests, threshold (Tammy et al.)

7/6 - Assistance to State of science review for MISD (VASAG/Larry)

5/15 - Next BP workshop (Paula/Greg)

5/1 - MOG Terms of Reference (Raul)

5/7 - Aircraft encounters info. (VASAG)

7/5 - Aircraft encounters database (Dave et al.)

5/8 – Re-suspended ash terminology BP [Decision]

5/11 - IAVW Roadmap and ConOps (Tammy et al.)

5/13 - IAVW Handbook backup info. (Paula et al.)

5/14 - Infrasound (Patrick with Paula)

5/15 - VAAC Management Reports (Jamie, Adele, Paula)

3/2 - MISD SO2 job card (Tammy et al.)

3/3 - MISD SO2 work plan [Decision]

7/4 - SVO responsibilities (Raul)

7/7 - IWVA/8 concept note (Andrew/Larry)

7/8 - Next VASAG meeting (Greg)

THREADS (IF APPLICABLE)

Presentation materials and other information at:

www.wmo.int/aemp/VAAC-BP-6-VASAG-8

https://www.wmo.int/aemp/VAAC-BP-6-VASAG-8









DAY 1 MONDAY 5 NOVEMBER 2018

Monday’s agenda

• Opening remarks, objectives, working arrangements

• ‘Ins and Outs’ modelling tables update

• VAAC strength of evidence checklists

• VONA and aviation colour codes

• Volcanic hazard monitoring and observing capabilities

Andrew & Larry chairing

Ian chairing

Ian & Greg lead

‘Ins and Outs’ modelling tables update

• VAAC BP/4 (2016) Outcome VW4-O-03

– Concerned investigations and reports on NWP errors/performance relevant to volcanic ash modelling (taking into account region specific issues, e.g. the tropics) and a review of VAAC ‘Ins and Outs’ modelling tables which were to be updated and shared once every 2 years

Matt & Claire to lead

DECISION REQUIRED: Keep open (recurrent), close or replace

VAAC strength of evidence checklists

• VAAC BP/5 (2017) Outcome VW5-O-07 and VASAG/7 (2017) Action Agreed 7/1

– Both concerned discernible ash strength of evidence checklists used by the VAACs

• More specifically, the VAACs were tasked to undertake further trials with checklists presented in 2017 and to seek expert input/scientific advice from the VASAG

Kazuki, Jarrad & Mike to lead

DECISION REQUIRED: Keep open, close or replace

VONA and aviation colour codes

• VAAC BP/5 (2017) Outcome VW5-O-04 and VASAG/7 (2017) Action Agreed 7/3 – Both concerned the Volcano Observatory Notice for

Aviation (VONA) and aviation colour codes

• METP WG-MOG/5 (IAVW) endorsed proposal that that: – the aviation colour code be removed from the VAA; and – the status of the VONA be elevated to a recommended

practice and (eventually) a standard

• VASAG/7 (2017) Action Agreed 7/4

– ICAO to remind States of their SVO obligations

Dave & Sam to lead


Volcanic hazard monitoring and observing capabilities

• Latest developments to be presented/discussed

Dave & Sam to lead

DAY 2 TUESDAY 6 NOVEMBER 2018

Tuesday’s agenda – VAAC BP

• Status of open VAAC BP outcomes (2016 & 2017)

• Satellite inter-comparisons of discernible ash

• Forecast verification and VAAC KPIs

• VAAC collaboration tools

• IWXXM developments

Ian chairing

Status of open VAAC BP outcomes (2016 & 2017)

• VAAC BP/4 (2016): – Outcome 4/3 on ‘Ins and Outs’ modelling tables

(recurrent, every 2 years) – See Day 1 – Outcome 4/16 on updates to METP – Close?

• VAAC BP/5 (2017):

– Outcome 5/1 on VAAC collaboration tools – Day 2 – Outcome 5/3 on IWXXM implementation – Day 2 – Outcome 5/7 on discernible ash strength of

evidence – See Day 1 – Outcome 5/8 on satellite inter-comparison – Day 2 – Outcome 5/15 on next BP workshop – Close

VAAC BP

Satellite inter-comparisons of discernible ash


– Concerned satellite inter-comparisons of discernible ash

• More specifically, the VAACs were tasked (where feasible) to conduct a comparison: – between the old and new generation of satellite products

within each VAAC; and

– of the new generation of satellite products across all VAACs

VAAC BP

Kazuki to lead


Forecast verification and VAAC KPIs


– Concerned VAAC key performance indicators (KPIs)

• More specifically, an initial set of KPIs was reported to the ICAO METP WG-MOG/5 (IAVW) and the VAACs were subsequently tasked to trial the KPIs

VAAC BP

Mark to lead (for Anton)


VAAC collaboration tools


– Concerned a VAAC collaboration tool whereby:

• a functional needs analysis formulated at the 2017 workshop was to be finalised; and

• VAACs with capability were to collaborate in the development of a suitable, single web-based platform (with basic functionality to start as necessary)

VAAC BP

Dov to lead


IWXXM developments

• VAAC BP/5 (2017) Outcome VW5-O-02 – sought to clarify the differences between IWXXM

versions 2.1 and 3.0 and when IWXXM 3.0 would be available

• VAAC BP/5 (2017) Outcome VW5-O-03 – proposed that IWXXM-compliant volcanic ash

advisory/volcanic ash graphic (VAA/VAG) should be made available on the respective websites of the VAAC initially and the extended AMHS eventually

VAAC BP

Dov and Patrick to lead


CLOSED

Tuesday’s agenda – VASAG

• Status of open VASAG actions (2015 & 2017)

• ESP database for restless volcanoes

• Aircraft VA encounters database and severity index

• Satellite advancements (including SCOPE-Nowcasting)

• Modelling advancements (including probability and ESP)


Status of open VASAG actions (2015 & 2017)

VASAG/6 (2015)

• 6/2 on publications

• 6/6 on ESP database

• 6/7 on outreach

• 6/10 on use of radar data

VASAG/7 (2017)

• 7/1 on strength of evidence checklists

• 7/2 on VA state of science review – Close

• 7/3 on VONA/aviation colour codes

• 7/4 on SVO responsibilities

• 7/5 on a/c encounters database

• 7/6 on assistance to SO2 state of science review

• 7/7 on IWVA/8 concept note

• 7/8 on next VASAG meeting – Close

VASAG

The VASAG needs to decide whether to keep open or to

close or replace each of these actions

ESP database for restless volcanoes

• VASAG/6 (2015) Action Agreed 6/6 – Concerned a global volcano eruption source

parameter database for restless volcanoes and work to make a web-based version of the ESP database available for VASAG review.

– The status of progress was discussed at the VASAG/7 (2017) meeting, where it was noted that the ESP database was continuing to be improved by the British Geological Survey (BGS) with inputs from the VASAG and VAACs.

– It was agreed at VASAG/7 (2017) to keep Action Agreed 6/6 open

VASAG

Larry & Sam to lead


Aircraft VA encounters database and severity index


– Concerned an aircraft volcanic ash encounters database and severity index.

• More specifically, in direct response to a request emanating from the ICAO METP WG-MOG/5 (IAVW), Dave Schneider was tasked to lead efforts regarding changes to Appendix F to ICAO Doc 9691 with new data on aircraft encounters and any agreed-upon modifications to an encounter severity index

VASAG

Dave to lead


Satellite advancements


– Including outcomes of the SCOPE-Nowcasting workshop (Catania, 8 to 12 October 2018)

VASAG

Mike to lead

Modelling advancements


VASAG

Claire to lead

DAY 3 WEDNESDAY 7 NOVEMBER 2018

Wednesday’s agenda – VAAC BP

• Additional VAAC discussions (including IATA request for review of the VAACs)

Ian chairing

Additional VAAC discussions

• In-camera session

– i.e. VAAC managers/representatives only

VAAC BP

Ian to lead

Wednesday’s agenda – VASAG

• Publications and outreach suggestions

• IWVA proposals


Publications and outreach suggestions

• VASAG/6 (2015) Actions Agreed 6/2 and 6/7 – Both concerned publications and outreach.

• More specifically: – Action Agreed 6/2 pertained to the VASAG contributing to an

update to IAVCEI guidelines (available here) and the promotion of conformance with these guidelines.

– Action Agreed 6/7 concerned the further development of graphically-based information brochures and a website to underpin and complement the priorities and themes of the periodic science workshops.

– At VASAG/7 (2017) both of these actions were marked as ‘ongoing’. • In respect of Action Agreed 6/7, it was noted by VASAG/7

that there was a possible linkage of the follow-up with WMO GAW SAG-Aerosol annual bulletin articles

VASAG

Andrew to lead


IWVA proposals


– Concerned the development of a concept note for an eighth International Workshop on Volcanic Ash (IWVA/8) in the 2019 timeframe

– Recent development:

• Informal expression of interest from the Icelandic Met Office to host in 2020 – potentially coincident with the 10th anniversary of the Eyjafjallajökull eruption in April

VASAG

Andrew & Larry to lead


Wednesday’s agenda (continued)

• Parallel session reporting

• IWVA proposal from VASAG and feedback

• WMO Constituent Bodies Reform an impacts on CAeM governance and structures

• Wrap-up and close

Ian, Andrew & Larry chairing

Parallel session reporting

• Ian to give an overview of the VAAC BP discussions over the past 24/36 hours.

• Andrew and Larry to do likewise with respect to VASAG.

IWVA proposal from VASAG and feedback

• Andrew and Larry to present the latest conceptual ideas and potential timing of an IWVA/8

WMO Constituent Bodies Reform

• Ian and Greg to outline what ‘WMO Reform’ is, the objective, expected outcome, the impact, the timeline, etc.

Wrap-up and close

• Ian, Andrew and Larry to wrap-up Days 1 to 3 and to briefly outline the plan of action for Days 4 and 5 (thematic open days)

DAY 4 THURSDAY 8 NOVEMBER 2018

Thursday’s agenda

• Opening remarks, objectives, working arrangements

• VAAC personnel competency

• State volcano observatory skills, needs and capacity development

Ian chairing

VAAC personnel competency

• Ian to lead

State volcano observatory skills, needs and capacity development

• Larry and Andrew to lead

DAY 5 FRIDAY 9 NOVEMBER 2018

Friday’s agenda

• Volcanic ash impacts on jet engines – an update

• Quantitative volcanic ash forecasts – progress and recommendations

• Volcanic ash sulphur dioxide

• Wrap-up and close


Volcanic ash impacts on jet engines – an update

• Rory to lead

Quantitative volcanic ash forecasts – progress and recommendations

• Larry and Andrew to lead the discussion on progress

• Ian to lead the discussion on recommendations

Volcanic ash sulphur dioxide

• Larry and Andrew to lead the discussion

Wrap-up and close

• Ian to wrap-up Days 4 and 5 and to close the week

― THE END ―

storyboard for conjoint vaac bp/6 and vasag/8 · where and when… monday tuesday wednesday...

Documents