storage systems market analysis dec 04. storage market & technologies
TRANSCRIPT
Storage Systems Market Analysis
Dec 04
Storage Market & Technologies
World Wide Disk Storage Systems Market Analysis
Company Rev $M share% Rev $M share% Rev $M share%
HP* 1,790.40 7.6% 4201.1 21.1% 5219.8 25.7%
IBM 3,473.20 14.8% 3771.8 19.0% 4295.7 21.2%
EMC 3,803.20 16.2% 2400.4 12.1% 2524.2 12.4%
Sun Microsystems 1,382.90 5.9% 1440 7.2% 1295.3 6.4%
Dell 902.10 3.8% 974.1 4.9% 1283.4 6.3%
Hitachi 1,567.00 6.7% 1196.7 6.0% 1248.3 6.2%
Network Appliance 545.20 2.3% 520.3 2.6% 576 2.8%
Fujitsu 846.50 3.6% 599 3.0% 543.9 2.7%
NEC 505.50 2.2% 375.9 1.9% 334.6 1.6%
Fujitsu Seimens 233.60 1.0% 272.5 1.4% 286.3 1.4%
Other 8,414.40 35.9% 4151.4 20.9% 2671.9 13.2%
Total 23,464.0 19,903.2 20,279.4YonY Market Growth -15.2% 1.9%
Total External Storage Systems Rev 17,195.1 73.3% 13,097.1 65.8% 13,590.9 67.0%
YonY Market Growth -23.8% 3.8%
OEM Storage Systems Revenue 782.6 3.3% 1,204.3 6.1% 1,597.3 7.9%
YonY Growth % 53.9% 32.6%
% share of External Storage Systems 4.6% 9.2% 11.8%
* For 2Q02-4Q02, HP is reported as the combined entity of HP and Compaq. The data for these companies was reported
separately in 1Q02 and all prior years.
Source: IDC, 2004 & Company Data
Wor ldwi d e D i s k Storage S y s tems Revenu e b y Sup p l i e r , 2001-2003 2001 2002 2003
External Storage Systems Market Structure
Total External Storage Systems Rev 17,195.1 13,097.1 13,590.9% YonY Growth -23.8% 3.8%
External RAID 14,151.6 82.3% 11,512.4 87.9% 12,272.6 90.3%
External JBOD 3,043.5 17.7% 1,584.7 12.1% 1,318.3 9.7%
Direct Attached Storage 9,357.5 54.4% 5,931.9 45.3% 5,503.6 40.5%
% YonY Growth -36.6% -7.2%
Total External Networked Systems Rev 7,837.6 45.6% 7,165.2 54.7% 8,087.3 59.5%
% YonY Growth -8.6% 12.9%
FCSAN 4,873.8 28.3% 4,901.1 37.4% 5,886.7 43.3%
% YonY Growth 0.6% 20.1%
NAS 1,731.2 10.1% 1,511.1 11.5% 1,483.6 10.9%
% YonY Growth -12.7% -1.8%
Escon/Ficon SAN 1,232.6 7.2% 753.0 5.7% 717.0 5.3%
% YonY Growth -38.9% -4.8%
Source: IDC, 2004
Market Segmentation%of External
StorageMarket%of External
StorageMarket%of External
StorageMarket
2001 2002 2003
Revenue Revenue Revenue
External Storage Revenue growth projections
High Capacity Low Cost Drive Summary
Long Term Trends for RAID Technology
Raid Commoditization Basic function well understood
RAID, Failover / Fail Back, Drive rebuild, Cache Several low cost vendors with “Good Enough Solutions” Prices and Costs falling steadily
Raid Offload Basic feature function being pushed into silicon Single chip solutions coming from several vendors
Ivivity, Istor, Aristos Removes RAID engine as bottleneck
Firmware features now in silicon Huge improvement in I/O rates Performance under failure
None shipping in Volume yet
Large Disk Drive RAID rebuild issues – RAID 6 & RAIDn Rebuild times on failure can be measured in days Probability of a second failure relatively high Two failures with traditional RAID protection loses whole data set New Algorithms required
RAID Algorithms
Measure of cost
Measures of performance
Protection against failure
Total number of disks for N data disks
Ratio of total:data (for N=8)
Disk ops per write
Relative throughput 70R:30W (for N=8)
Relative throughput with one disk failed
Relative throughput per disk
JBOD
none N 1 1W 1 - 1
RAID-5 any one disk
N+1 1.125 2(R+W) 0.59 0.39 0.52
RAID-1/10 any one disk
2N 2 2W 1.54 1.47 0.77
RAID-6 any two disks
N+2 1.25 3(R+W) 0.5 0.36 0.4
RAID-51 any three disks
2N+2 2.25 2(R+W)+2W 0.9 0.65 0.4
RAID-5&0 any two disks
2N+1 2.125 2(R+W)+1W 0.97 0.78 0.46
Triple mirror
any two disks
3N 3 3W 1.89 1.85 0.63
Data Disk 1 Data Disk 2 Data Disk 3 Data Disk 4 Horizontal
Parity Disk Diagonal Parity Disk
Data1 Data2 Data3 Data4 Parity DParity1 Data Data1 Data2 Data3 Parity4 DParity2 Data4 Data Data1 Data2 Parity3 DParity3 Data3 Data4 Data Data1 Parity2 DParity4
Market Overview and Trends
Forecasted SCSI to SAS transition drivers Ability to use SATA or SAS depending upon need Parallel vs Serial Architecture Cable Length and bulk Low cost infrastructure Performance
2Gb to 4 Gb transition drivers Ease of Migration (2Gb / 4Gb interchange Performance increase Faster Controllers Faster drives
Enclosure trends 2U 3.5” and 2.5” High density
Long Term Trends RAID commoditization Raid offload AS and new architectures
SCSI to SAS Transition
Adoption Curve - SCSI to SASIDC View
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Time
Un
its
(000
's)
SCSI
SAS
Internal Drives Internal Arrays MainstreamEntry RAID
IDC View:
Gradual take up of SAS in a low cost server environment.
Adoption into arrays by late 05 in direct attach environments.
Entry RAID systems emerge Q4 2006
SAS becomes the mainstream by Q2 2007, with SCSI still commanding a presence.
Very gradual and cautious take up of SAS
Drive Vendor View:
SAS drives begin to ramp in Q4 2004.
By Q1/2 2005, SAS drives are common in internal arrays and driving a rapid take up.
Entry RAID systems are implemented in volume by late 2005
SAS becomes the mainstream by early 2006
A rapid adoption of SAS due to the performance and cost saving benefits over Parallel SCSI.
Adoption Curve - SCSI to SAS Drive Vendor View
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Time
Un
its (
000's
)
SCSI
SAS
Internal Drives Mainstream
Internal Arrays
Entry RAID
FC Disk Adoption Curve
0
5000
10000
15000
Date
Un
its
(000
's) 1GB/s
2GB/s
4GB/s
8GB/s
Total FC
1GB/s 1200 200 0
2GB/s 1608 3745 4800 1541 0
4GB/s 0 4625 7145 8109 3905
8GB/s 0 500 5895
Total FC 2808 3945 4800 6166 7145 8609 9800
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
FC trends – 2Gb to 4Gb
Total FC Numbers 2002 – 2007 from IDC.
Volumes for total year not per QTR eg: 4GB FC 2004 is Zero 2005 is 4,625
Breakdown by FC Interface speed Xyratex view
Early Mid Late
?
Enclosures
2U Enclosures Will likely be the standard for 3.5” SAS enclosures
Lower cost per unit Lower increment of capacity Similar to 14/16 on a per slot cost basis
Expected to be the standard for 2.5” enterprise systems Very high I/O density (5 to 6k I/Ops) Very low cost per slot (Similar overall cost to 3U wit 2x the slot count) High storage density, With 144GB drives over 4TB in 2U
Internal Rack JBOD 2.5” will be 1U with 10 or 12 drives
High Density Enclosures coming from several vendors All have design compromise Top Loader (Xyratex, ATA Beast) Front loader (multiple drives per carrier) Power issue for non-SATA drives for greater than 40 drives High density for storage Some cost per slot savings
Emerging 1U / 2U Storage Appliance Market
Carrier
Carrier
Carrier
Carrier
Carrier
Carrier
Tyan SMDCM3289
Carrier
Carrier
Carrier
Carrier
Carrier
Carrier
Carrier
Integrated Server / Storage Products Network attachment GbE Block and File Management Systems
1U Enclosures 4 SATA Drives, ATX (P4) Motherboard,
IPMI, GbE, Dual Inlet Power. 1/2 TB storage solution
2U Enclosures 12 SATA Drives, E-ATX (Dual Xeon)
Motherboard, IPMI, GbE, Dual redundant Power
4/6TB storage solution
Over 25 bids in progress 2005 Revenue and Investment
Opportunity
Storage Sub Systems Classes
3.5in Drives
SATA via SAS or FC
8, 12, 14 & 16 3.5in
FC/SATA/SAS/SCSI2.5in Drives
SAS & FC
Traditional
General Purpose
High Performance
Bulk
Storage
“Not All Data Is Equal”
Storage Systems
can now be tailored
to the Application
Capacity
SCSI
SSA
FCAL
SATA
SAS
Connectivity
Capability
SCSI
SSA
FC
iSCSI
SAS
Management
RAID
HA
Compression
Encryption
STRATEGY 1: Move along X-axis
Best of Breed Disk Enclosures
STRATEGY 2: Move along Y-axis
Best of Breed Interconnectivity
STRATEGY 3: Move along Z-axis
Best of Breed Capabilities
C3 Strategy:
Capacity, Connectivity and Capability
Modular Design Strategy: Capacity, Connectivity, Capabilities; C3
“The Box” is changing to meet new requirements
Basic IT Infrastructure
Lots of different boxes often connected together
Multiple interconnect fabrics to develop, install and manage
Basic IT infrastructureDedicated Processor Systems, External Dedicated Fabrics, Networked Storage
“The Box” is changing to meet new requirements
“The Box” is changing to meet new requirements
Next Generation IT infrastructureBlade Processor Systems, Internal fabrics, High Density Networked Storage
High Density
Networked
Storage
System
Shared I/O
To LAN, WAN &
Storage
High Bandwidth
Interconnect
High Density Processor
Blades
A New Type of Box – Integrated System Issues
Blade ServerUtility Computing
Modules
Shared I/O & Clustering
Switch
Shared IO Modules
High DensityStorage
Sub Systems
Power Density 2KW to 10KW per Rack Thermal Management
Increased Device Density
Server Systems to Blades 3.5” to 2.5” Disk Drives
EMI / RFI Constraints High Density Ultra High Speed Devices 10 - 30 Gb/sec channels for blades 4 -10 Gb/sec for Disk Drives 3 -10 Gb/sec for I/O
A New Type of Box – Integrated System
Scalable ‘in the box’ storage and servers Highly integrated solutions
Emerging new middleware
Repurposing of processor tasks Low Latency requirements High Performance Interconnect
Shared storage I/O & Storage
Resiliency versus Redundancy options
New Distributed Storage Environments Information Life Cycle Management Object Based Storage Grid Architectures
Blade ServerUtility Computing
Modules
Shared I/O & Clustering
Switch
Shared IO Modules
High DensityStorage
Sub Systems
RS-1600 Current Module Options
2Gb FC-AL JBOD I/O2 loops of 8 DrivesSFP Connections
Enclosure ManagementSES
1Gb FC-AL JBOD I/O1 loop of 16 DrivesDB9 Connections
Enclosure Management
SES
1Gb FC-FC RAID
FFx128-512MB Cache
Dual Host SFP DB9 Expansion
RS232 RAID Mgt Encl Management
SES
2Gb FC-FC RAID
FFx2128-512MB Cache
2 Host SFP Expansion SFP RS232 RAID Mgt
Ethernet RAID Mgt*Encl Management
SESBattery Cache Backup
2Gb FC-FC RAID
X24128-512MB Cache
2 Host SFP 2 Expansion SFP RS232 RAID Mgt
Ethernet RAID MgtEncl Management
SESBattery Cache
Backup
2Gb FC-FC RAID
IFT 5251F128-512MB Cache
2 Host SFP Expansion SFP RS232 RAID Mgt
Ethernet RAID MgtEncl Management
SESBattery Cache
Backup
The Xyratex X24 Controller
X24 RAID 5 4x 16 drives
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
0.5 2 4 8 16 32 64 128 256 512 1024
Block size in Kbs
Mb
s / S
ec
seq read
seq w rite
ran read
ran w rite