storage 101: state of play & technology overview
TRANSCRIPT
STORAGE 101: State of Play & Technology Overview
Peter Mockel
Not for distribution without prior consent by IFC
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State of Play
LITHIUM-ION BATTERIES
Direction of travel of electrons
lithium ions
Cathode
Separator
Electrolyte
electrons
Anode
Charging device
Direction of travel of electrons
lithium ions
Cathode
Separator
Electrolyte
electrons
Anode
Load
CHARGING (BATTERY IS PLUGGED INTO
ELECTRICITY MAINS)
DISCHARGING (BATTERY IS GENERATING
ELECTRICITY)
Battery performance criteria
4
• Specific power: Short term power surge e.g. for starter engines
• Cycle life: Most important where swapping cells incurs high cost, e.g. remote installations, vehicles
• Gravimetric energy density: EVs require low weight
• Volumetric energy density: Passenger cars require compact batteries
• Ambient temperature: High temp. tolerance required in hot climates, reduces need for active cooling
• Charge speed: Grid backup, when power is only temporarily on
• Charge retention: Infrequent discharge, e.g. UPS
• Safety: Risk of thermal runaway unacceptable in transportation applications
• Round trip efficiency: Counterintuitively, sometimes not so important, e.g. when energy is stored which would otherwise be curtailed
• Cell cost: Cost of individual cells, not as important as …
• system cost: Including packaging, remote monitoring and climate control.
Overview of major battery chemistry families
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Energy Storage
Mechanical storage
Flywheels
Compressed air
Pumped hydro
Fuel cells
PEMFC
DMFC
SOFC
MCFC
…
Capacitors Batteries
Power batteries
Energy batteries
Mobile batteries
Stationary batteries
Established types
Lead-acid Lithium-ion
NMC
LMO
LTO
Li-Air
Novel types
Zinc-air
Fluidic
EOS
Sodium-ion Molten Salt
GE DurathonFlow-
batteries
Liquid metal Solid state
Innovation
hotspot around
novel battery
chemistries
Mobile is not the
focus here
Renewed interest
in fuel cells
Pumped hydro is a
mature technology, other
mech. storage is on the
fringe
The
incumbent
Strongest
momentum
IFC
investment
IFC
investment
IFC
investment
• No dominant
technology yet
• Maybe different
technologies
will specialize
for different use
cases
There is no single winning technology yet.Lithium-ion has best all-round performance at this time.
Lead Acid Li-ion Flow Zinc-air …
Chemistries Flooded, VLR/AGM/Gel,
carbon matt
LCO, LMO, NMC, NCA,
LFP, Li-S, Li Metal,
LTO, Li-Si
Vanadium redox,
Iron-Chromium,
Zinc-Bromine
Zinc-air
O&M Requires regular
maintenance
Requires cooling/air
conditioning
Requires electrical
pump to function
continuously
Low maintenance (e.g.
air filter washing)
Discharge
time
Can be optimized for
short or long (20h)
discharge
Short (up to 4h) Medium to long (4h-
10h)
Long (7h)
Cycle life (# of
deep cycles)
200 – 800 2,000 – 8,000 10,000 – 15,000 10,000+
Round Trip
Efficiency
60%-70% 85%-98% 60%-85% 50-70% 1)
Density Large and heavy High Medium Medium
Cell Price <$100/kWh <$250/kWh, and falling $200-$600 per kWh $160-250/kWh, lower at
scale 2)
Safety Medium, risk of gassing Low, about 1-in-a-million
chance of fire
No flammability but
chemical spills
possible
Risk-free
Toxicity Very critical Medium Varies, e.g. Bromine is
criticalNone
Misc. Hazardous
manufacturing
Reliability issues in
harsh environment
No cooling required
Nant Energy: Robust,
long-duration
… plus long
tail of other
battery
types for
specialized
applications
Incumbent – good all-around battery. Made
by Samsung, LG, Tesla/Panasonic, BYD,
Sony & 20+ smaller vendors
1) Nant Energy
is working
toward 80%
2) On path to
$100,
roadmap to
$35
Mostly small vendors
(Primus, ESS,
Gildemeister …)
Made by countless
local manufacturers
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Glossary: “Lithium-ion” is no single technology but a family of different combinations of anode and cathode materials
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Lithium Cobalt Oxide Cathode LCO
Lithium Manganese Oxide Spinel Cathode LMO
Lithium Nickel Manganese Cobalt Oxide Cathode NMC (alt. NCM)
Lithium Nickel Cobalt Aluminium Cathode NCA
Lithium Iron Phosphate Cathode LFP
Lithium Sulphur Cathode Li-S
Lithium Metal Anode Li Metal
Lithium Titanate Anode LTO
Lithium with Nano-Structure Silicon Anode Li-Si
ENERGY STORAGE: COMPARISON POWER AND ENERGY
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Source: Capricorn
SOME APPLICATION REQUIRE LONG DURATION STORAGE
BATTERIES ARE CHANGING HOW PEOPLE AND BUSINESSES
GENERATE, PURCHASE, AND CONSUME ENERGY
• Affordable battery-powered energy storage is the missing link between
intermittent renewable energy and 24/7/365 reliability
• Energy storage will be required to exceed 50% of renewable energy share.
• The combination of cheap solar & storage will change the sector forever.
• Batteries can:
• Simultaneously perform transmission and distribution functions
• Act as generators (by charging and releasing stored energy)
• Act as grid assets (energy shifting and peaking capacity)
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THE U.S. LEADS GLOBALLY IN DEPLOYMENTS.
THERE IS NOW TRACTION IN EMERGING MARKETS.
• Map shows battery systems >10MW, deployed or under development
• U.S. leads because of head start from ARRA projects, ahead of South Korea,
Japan, the E.U. and Australia
• Chile was the first emerging market to deploy (2012)
• China has recently announced a batch of very large new projects
• Island grids are early adopters
• Weak interconnection in MENA driving interest in storage
11 Source: DoE
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Technology & Economics
COMPONENTS OF A BATTERY ENERGY STORAGE SYSTEM
Figure 1 Stationary battery energy storage system (BESS)
Inverters
Containerized batteries,
contain fire suppression
HVAC
transformers
Apart from the actual battery, a stationary battery energy storage system, or BESS, requires additional components to become operational at the grid level:
• An energy management system (EMS) that optimizes either the battery use, or the integrated use of the battery with attached solar or wind.
• A grid connection• A transformer for connecting to the grid and stepping up voltage.• Balance of plant (BoP) (including buildings, HVAC, fire suppression, cabling, and
metering)
13 Source: Wartsila
GRID-SCALE BATTERY SYSTEMS HAVE BEEN RUNNING FOR THE
PAST DECADE. THE TECHNOLOGY IS DE-RISKED AND BANKABLE.
Source: BNEF Storage Assets database, retrieved 10/28/2019
Includes commissioned, financed/under construction, and announced projects using lithium ion, nickel-based, sodium sulphur, and flow
batteries
0.07 0.10 0.060.13
0.20
0.56
0.81
1.00
2.50
3.29
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Pow
er
(GW
)
Year Commissioned
Australia
Canada
Chile
China
Germany
Italy
Japan
Korea (Republic)
United Kingdom
United States
Other countries
Grand Total
First large grid
projects in
Japan
U.S. deploys
180m$ ARRA
funds via DoE
Fully
commercially
priced projects
in the U.S. w/o
subsidies
Fluence (formerly
AES) and Tesla
reduce deployment
time from 2 years
to 6 months)
Storage beginning to
displace new gas
peaker projects
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MOVING BEYOND LITHIUM-ION:
BRINGING OTHER BATTERY TECHNOLOGIES TO MARKET
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• Lithium-ion’s dominance has been thanks to the auto industry driving down prices,
with energy sector reaping the benefits
• “No battery fits all”: Other technologies are superior for specific applications (e.g. IFC
client Nant Energy for off-grid / bad grid applications)
• Optimizing technologies to applications will deliver market growth (rather than
cannibalizing)
COMMISSIONED UTILITY-SCALE STORAGE PROJECTS
4%
58%48%
59%
77%71%
85% 88% 86%
74%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019(partial)
Share
of
GW
Year Commissioned
Sodium sulphur
Power-to-gas
Other technologies
Nickel-based
Multiple technologies
Lead acid
Flywheels
Flow batteries
Compressed air energy storage (CAES)
Lithium-ion
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Source: BNEF
MARKET MISMATCH: EMERGING MARKETS NEED LONGER
DURATION STORAGE
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OECD Emerging markets
Needs • Short duration – there’s
always a grid for backup
• Priority on power: Ability
to quickly ramp up and
down (similar to peakers)
• Benign ambient temp
• Multiple applications
serving complex market
structures (i.e. real time
bidding into ancillary
services markets)
• End-of-life recycling no
issue
• Long duration - Power
remote systems through the
night and thorugh outages
• Energy over power
• More extreme ambient
• Low maintenance
• End-of-life recycling not
always perfect
Appropriate
technologies
Li-ion Long-duration, robust, un-
cooled, non-toxic technology
16
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WHAT’S NEXT?
FOUR MAJOR PREDICTIONS:
INPUT COSTS FALL VALUE CHAIN MATURES & EVOLVES
LCOE BECOMES MORE COMPETITIVE MARKET CONFIDENCE SOARS
208175 161 148 135 122 109 95 89 83 77 72 68
38
3532
3029
2726
25 25 25 24 24 24
18
1311
109
88
8 7 7 7 7 7
21
1918
1715
1412 12 11 11 10 10
39
39
3634
3230
2928 28 28 27 27 26
18
11
11
1010
1010
1010 9 9 9 9
21
19
17
16 15
14 13
12 11 11 10 10 9
364
331
304
282
261
240 221
203 194
186 179 172 165
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Real 2019 $/kWh Developer margin
Developer overheads
EPC*
System integratormargin
Transformer
Energy managementsystem
PCS
Balance of System
Battery rack
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
2019 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
$/MWh (real 2018), India
Non-tracking PV +storage
CCGT
Coal
Onshore wind +storage18
Source: BNEF
THANK YOU
19