stoplight charts - events.spacepole.be

USAirForce 557th WeatherWingmaintainsawebsitewithmanyoperationalproductsbothonterrestrialasonspaceweather.Theoperationalholygrailforthemilitaryarestoplightcharts,indicatingiftheimpactoftheenvironmentonassetsoroperationsarefavourableorunfavourable.SuchchartsexistforSpaceWeathertoo.WewillusethesechartstohelpyouunderstandhowEVENTScanbetranslatedtoIMPACTS.

DirectrelationshipsbetweenEVENTSand IMPACTSarehardtogive.Nonetheless,physicalreasoning,feedbackandcasestudiesareagoodguidance.ThecominghourweinterpretthesesocalledstoplightchartsbyAFWAtolearnmoreaboutthisrelationshipandgetafeelingforit.

Eachcouplegetsachart withafewquestions.UsetheUrsigramofthatday,theslidesoftheSWIC,internet(e.g.staff.oma.be)andanswerthequestions.Beforewestart,firstashortintroductionontheEVENTS.Forauser’sguideonsolarandgeophysicalindicators,alsovisit:

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/sites/default/files/images/u2/Usr_guide.pdf

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Thesolarimageinthelowerrightcornerisanextremeultraviolet(EUV)imageofthesunthatemphasizestheincreasedemissionsassociatedwithactiveregions.

Solar.Thiscategoryshowstheoverallactivitylevelofthesunanditslikelihoodtoimpactsystems.Criteriaanalyzedtodeterminethestateofthiscategoryaretheoccurrenceofmoderateorgreaterx-rayflaresandsignificantsolarradiobursts.

GREENindicateslittlechanceofaneventlevelflareand/orradioburstbeingobservedorforecastedYELLOWindicatesgoodchanceofaneventlevelflareand/orradioburstbeingobservedorforecastedREDindicatesverygoodchanceofaneventlevelflareand/orradioburstbeingobservedorforecasted

SolarFlareAsolarflareisanexplosivereleaseofenergyacrossabroadrangeoftheelectromagneticspectrum.Thisenergyisstoredinintensemagneticfieldsnearthesolarsurface,orphotosphere(sunspots)orincoronalactiveregions.Significantemissionsincludex-rays,extremeultravioletwaves,radiobursts(seebelow). Flaresareclassified according to the X-rayflux.Thefollowingistheclassificationbreakdown.

Class Flux(W/m2)

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X– extreme >10-4M– major >10-5C– common >10-6B– comesbeforeC >10-7A– comesbeforeB >10-8

AandBare“background”levels.

DataInputDataarex-rayfluxlevelsmeasuredinunitsofWatts/m2.ThesedataaretakenfromGOES-12(primary)andGOES-10(secondary)spaceenvironmentmonitor(SEM)sensors.

ThresholdsRed Xlevel(>10-4 W/m2)YellowMlevel(>10-5 W/m2)Green Otherwise

SolarRadioBurstAsolarradioburstisashort-livedsolarradioemissionusuallyassociatedwithasolarflare linkedwithsunspotswhichresideinthesolarphotosphere. A sunspotisassociatedwithacoronalactiveregion.Activeregionsarerelativelydense,hot,andbrightareasinthecorona.

DataInputDataaresolarfluxlevelsmeasuredinsolarfluxunits(sfu),where1sfu=10-22W/m2/Hz.ThesedataaremeasuredatdiscretefrequenciesandaretakenfromUSAirForceRadioSolarTelescopeNetwork(RSTN)sites.Valuesareadjustedfor1astronomicalunit(AU),whichistheaverageSun-Earthdistance(about93millionmiles).

ThresholdsRed >104 sfuYellow >5000sfuGreen Otherwise

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ChargedParticles– measuredbyGOESatgeostationaryorbits.Thiscategoryshowstheobservedorforecastpotentialforsystemimpactsfromchargedparticlessignificantlyabovenormalbackgroundlevels.Chargedparticleenhancementsoccurduetosolareventsorenhancedgeomagneticactivity.

GREENindicatesthattheamountchargedparticlesisatornearnormalbackgroundlevelsarebeingobservedorforecastedYELLOWindicatesthatmoderatelevelsofchargedparticlesarebeingobservedorforecastedREDindicatesthatseverelevelsofchargedparticlesenvironmentarebeingobservedorforecasted

EnergeticParticleAnelectronvolt(eV)istheamountofenergyanelectrongainsasitpassesthroughapotentialdifferenceofonevolt.1MeVis106 eV.(Misformega,whichmeansmillion.)Alternatively,thismayapplytoprotonssincetheyhavethesameamountofchargeaselectrons,butwithachargeofoppositesign. Here,energeticparticlesarethoseprotonswithenergiesgreaterthan50MeV.However,protonswithenergiesgreaterthan10MeVarealsoconsideredunderthisheadingsincetheirdetectioncontributestodiscernmentofapolarcapabsorption(PCA)event.PCAeventsgenerallyoriginatewithsolarflares,andtheycancauseionosphericabsorptionofHFandVHFradiowavesorreflectionofLFandVLFradiowavesatloweraltitudesthannormalinthepolarregions.

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DataInputDataaregreaterthan10MeVprotonandgreaterthan50MeVprotonparticlefluxunits.Aparticlefluxunitisoneparticle/cm2/sec/sr(sr:steradian– seelinkbelow).ThesedataareacquiredfromGOES-11SEMsensors.

ThresholdsRed greaterthan50MeVprotonpfu>10Yellow greaterthan10MeVprotonpfu>40Green Otherwise

SpacecraftChargingAsrepresentedhere,theterm“spacecraftcharging”appliestointernalcharging,whichreferstochargingofinternalcomponents– e.g.,dielectrics.Significantimpactsassociatedwithinternalchargingaredeep-dielectricbreakdown;damagetointernalcomponents;orsingleeventupsetssuchasuncommandedswitching(onoroff,forexample).Suchbreakdownscandamageinstrumentsorrendertheminoperable,eithertemporarilyorpermanently. Here,chargingconditionsarecharacterizedbycalculatingthe72-hourfluenceofelectronswithenergiesgreaterthan2MeV.Whereasfluxiscalculatedatapointintime,fluenceisanaccumulationoffluxvaluesoveraperiodoftime.

DataInputDataaregreaterthan2MeVelectronfluxesreportedat5-minuteintervals.Duetooccasionaldatagaps,sometimeslastingoveranhour,thedataoverthe72-hourperiodareaveragedandmultipliedby (60sec/min)(60min/hr)(72hr)toobtainthe72-hourvalue.

ThresholdsRed greaterthan2MeVelectronfluenceexceeds109/cm2/sr/72hrYellow greaterthan2MeVelectronfluenceexceeds108/cm2/sr/72hrGreen Otherwise

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Geomagnetic.ThiscategoryshowstheoverallgeomagneticactivityleveloftheEarth’smagneticfield.Ameasuredorforecastplanetarygeomagneticactivityindexisusedtodeterminethelikelihoodofsystemimpacts.

GREENindicatesquietgeomagneticconditionsarebeingobservedorforecastedYELLOWindicatesminortomajorgeomagneticstormingconditionsarebeingobservedorforecastedREDindicatesseveregeomagneticstormingconditionsarebeingobservedorforecasted

GeomagneticVariationsintheEarth’sgeomagneticfieldaremeasuredatlocationsthroughouttheworld.AFWA/XOGXusesdatafromasubsetofthesestationstoderive3-hourlyand24-hourlyApindicesassociatedwiththesevariations.TheseApindicesareusedtocharacterizetheextentofthegeomagneticactivitydrivingthesevariations.

DataInputDataaregeomagneticactivityvaluesfromnineselectedstationsfromtheworldwidenetworkofstationsreportingvariationsintheEarth’smagneticfieldasrecordedatthesestations.DataareKvalues,fromwhichAvaluesarederived.TheApisaplanetaryaverageofthesestationAvalues.

Thresholds Storm Category

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Red Apgreaterthanorequalto100 SevereOrangeApgreaterthanorequalto50 MajorYellow Apgreaterthanorequalto30 MinorGreen Otherwise

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HFComm isafunctionofSolar andGeomagnetic.

Solar isafunctionofsolarflares andsolarradiobursts.

Geomagnetic isafunctionofgeomagneticactivity.

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SatelliteOps isafunctionofChargedParticleandGeomagnetic.

ChargedParticle isafunctionofprotonstorms,solarwind andgeomagneticstorms.


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SpaceObjTrack isafunctionofSolar andGeomagnetic.



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HighAltFlight isafunctionofChargedParticle.

ChargedParticle isafunctionofprotonstorms,solarwind andgeomagneticstorms.

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RadarInterference isafunctionofSolar andGeomagnetic.



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PICTURELEFT:

UHFSATCOM is afunctionofScintillation.

Scintillation isafunctionofsolaractivity(SSN),geomagneticactivity(Kp) andclimatology.

PICTURERIGHT:

UHFSATCOMScintillationNowcastandForecast:Thisproductisagraphicmapdepictingtheestimatedpotentialamountofperformancedegradation(signalfading)ofUHFSATCOMasaresultofionosphericscintillation.AlthoughDoDSATCOMusestheentireUHFradioband,theseUHFScintillationmapsapplyonlytoUHFSATCOMbetween225MHZand400MHZ(thelowerportionoftheUHFspectrumisimpactedmorethanthehigherend).Regionsoflightorweakdegradation(1-4dB)areingreen,regionsofmoderatedegradation(4-10dB)areinyellowandregionsofseveredegradation(greaterthat10decibels)areinred.

OperationalImpacts/UsesCustomerscanusethisproductforsituationalawarenessandtodevelopplanningguidanceforoperationsusingUHFandSATCOMsystems.

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PICTURELEFT:

GPSError(SingleFreq) isafunctionofSolar andScintillation.


Scintillation isafunctionofsolaractivity(SSN),geomagneticactivity(Kp) andclimatology.

PICTURERIGHT:

EstimatedGlobalPositioningSatellite(GPS)SingleFrequencyErrorMaps– 1-HourNowcastandForecast:Agraphicalproductthatestimatesnearreal-timepositioningerrorsthatresultfrominaccurateionosphericcorrectionforsingle-frequencyGPSusers.Theproductdisplayserrorsintotalposition(latitude,longitude,andheight),horizontalposition(latitudeonly),andaltitudeposition(heightonly).ProductassumesagreaterGPSerrorforhillyterrainthanflatterrain.Geometricdatafrom4visibleGPSsatellitesareusedtocreatetheproduct.GPSerrorsarecolor-codedandaredisplayedinmeters.

OperationalImpacts/Uses

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Customerscanusethisproductforsituationalawarenessandtodevelopplanningguidanceforoperationsusingsingle-frequencyGPSsystems.Itisimportanttonotethattheeffectsshowninthisproductdonotapplytodual-frequencyGPSsystems.

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Thediscussionslideshouldbeusedinconjunctionwiththestoplightchart.

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Questions:

1a.Whyistheforecastof‘ChargedParticle’unfavorablewhile‘Geomagnetic’isfavorable?1b.Whyisonly‘SatelliteOps’affectedduringthesedayswhiletheotherstaygreen?1c.Whichsatellitesatareaffectedmost?1d.Whatkindofimpacton‘SatelliteOps’couldhavebeenreportedonthe8thofMarch2017?

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Questions:

2a. WhatSPWXeventmakestheforecastedimpactonHFCommunfavorable?2b.Arethechargedparticlesaround27-Mar-2017dominatedbyelectronsorprotons?2c.Whichkindofradarsdoyouexpecttobeimpactedaround27-Mar-2017?

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Questions:

3a.WhereisimpactonUHFSatComlikelyduringthementionedtimeperiod?3b. WhyisimpactonUHFSatComlikelyduringnighttime?3c.WhyisimpactonGPS(ErroronSingleFreq)possibleduringnighttime?3d.ExplainthedifferencebetweenredforUHF&yellowforGPS.

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Questions:

4a.Whataretheapproximatethresholdsfor‘Active’SolarEVENTS?4b.WhyistheProbableIMPACTforRadarInterferencesetto‘Marginal’?4c.Whichradarsmightbedisrupted:polewardlookingorsunwardlooking?

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Questions:

5a.ArethepossibleimpactsonHFComm,RadarInterferenceandGPSError(SingleFreq)correlated?Ifso,how?5b.GPSandSATCOMarebothtrans-ionosphericradiolinks.WhyisimpactonGPSpossibleduringdaytimewhileatthesametimenoimpactisexpectedonSATCOM?5c.WhyisthemapfortheHFForecastallyellow?

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Questions:

6a.What happened onthe 17thofMarch 2015?6b.InMalian Apachehelicopter unfortunately crashed during the event.Could thesebe correlated orcausally related?

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Questions:

7a.What caused the Geomagnetic activity from 25SEP16to 02OCT16?7b.Apparently the activity wasstronger from 27SEP16tot29SEP16.Why?

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stoplight charts - events.spacepole.be

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